Match Thread: ASM Clermont Auvergne vs Leinster Rugby, Sunday 9th Dec, Sky Sports 2

molloyjh · 07-12-2012 1:19pm #1

LE GRAND JEU DE LA SAISON
(THE BIGGEST GAME OF THE SEASON)

It is. It really, really is. Leinster vs Clermont has come to almost epitomise recent Heineken Cup history. In the last 3 seasons there have been 4 meetings of these 2 sides. In 2 of those seasons the team that has come out on top of these encounters has gone on to win the tournament. And here we are again facing into a double header where the reigning champions take on the best side never to have won the competition. Could there be a bigger game?

For Leinster the answer is that there surely isn't, particularly given where they are this season; struggling for form and in the middle of a serious injury crisis. Yes 2 years ago Kearney, Fitz and Drico were missing from the side. But with Nacewa, McFadden and O'Malley available to deputise with Shane Horgan at 14 the back line cover at the time was far more secure. In the second row we're missing Nathan Hines. For as solid as Damien Browne may be, he's no Nathan Hines. And Sean O'Brien was in the process of securing a European Player of the Year in 2010, this year he is only just back from injury. 2 years ago Leinster did well to come away with a LBP. Leinster need to at least match that this weekend to keep their HEC hopes alive.

From Clermonts perspective Leinster have been the thorn in their side in this competition over the last number of years. As a team that have very serious European aspirations their record against Leinster is a duck they need to break. This week and next week are massive games for their season. They are obviously targeting the games given that they sent out weakened team away to Toulouse last weekend. Anything less than 5 points over the two weeks would be seen as a failure on their part. I'm sure they are aiming for both games after Bordeaux last year. They are one of the favourites for the competition and rightly so. They won't want Leinster spoiling the party for them for a 4th year running.

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In the front-row Clermont will be without the services of Thomas Domingo after undergoing knee surgery meaning Vincent Debaty will come in at LH. This might make things a little easier on Mike Ross in the Leinster front-row. Other than that though Clermont are at full strength. They also have a level of depth that most teams can only dream of. One thing that many commentators spoke of last season in reference to Leinster was their impact off the bench. This would be an area of real concern for Leinster on Sunday as injuries have seriously impacted them in this department, and it's certainly the one area (if you had to pick one) where Clermont are without a doubt superior.

Clermont will be gunning for Leinster in this back-to-back after the results from the last few years. Last years semi-final especially hurt them and they will be seeking to make amends. They have a ridiculously good record in SMM too. 50 games unbeaten. The RDS has been referred to as a fortress, as was Thomond Park for many a year. But if ever the term fortress applied to a venue it is this one. It's a testament to the Clermont side and to their supporters, who are magnificently vocal and who make a point of applying pressure to officials. In my own humble opinion the visiting supporters could do with taking a few notes as to how it's really done (we could also do with megaphones....really big and loud megaphones).

Sean+O+Brien+ASM+Clermont+Auvergne+v+Leinster+0IRocR4Y4wEl.jpg

But for all this Leinster fans can take some solace from the fact that in the 6 Top14 games Clermont have played at home, only 2 ended with them winning by more than 7. And they were against Perpignan (a shadow of their former selfs) and Grenoble (relative new boys to the Top14). The remaining games against good opposition have all been pretty close. For as much as Leinster would love a win this weekend, I'm sure they'd be happy enough with a Losing Bonus Point realistically. It's also worth pointing out that records are there to be broken and it's only a matter of time before someone ends that fantastic unbeaten streak of theirs. Given this rivalries history it wouldn't be a completely hair brained notion that Leinster could be that someone.

With Cian Healy and Richardt Strauss (albeit on the bench) coming off very good international form, Sean O'Brien back from injury and Jamie Heaslip high on confidence after a very positive end to the AIs Leinster look very good in the forwards. In the backs Johnny Sexton has looked to be in imperious form these last few weeks, Gordon D'Arcy is back doing what he does best (defying those that believe he's past it), Fergus McFadden has been in his best form possibly ever in a blue shirt and Isa is, well, Isa. Andrew Goodman at 12 also adds a level of physicality that will be required against the likes of Rougerie and Fofana. For all the foreboding and managing of expectations this is still a strong Leinster side, capable of a top class performance. Really the only question Leinster fans could pose is where is Van der Merwe. Outside of his omission the Leinster side is as expected.

This game will most likely be a tight and very physical affair. A LBP will be enough for Leinster, possibly a better outcome than a win at the expense of more injuries. I predict that we'll se a result very similar to the one from 2 years ago. Leinster scraping past with a point to show for it, and the game in the Aviva being the real make or break game for the pool. Prevent them picking up a point there and it's game on for the final 2 rounds.

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A special mention has to go out to the Clermont fans on this one. Having been to all the clashes betweeen these 2 sides over the last 3 years I've been hugely impressed with their supporters. Vocal and passionate at the games and incredibly friendly and gracious before and after. I was meant to be saving the sheckles for the wedding next year but as soon as the opportunity arose to go back over this season it was a no-brainer. They are a top class bunch and win, lose or draw it'll be a great 2 weeks as a fan of the game.

C'MON LEINSTER!

CatFromHue · 07-12-2012 1:24pm

Was it the last time D'arcy filled in at 13 for an injured BOD the same season he was short listed for world player of the year?

peterako · 07-12-2012 1:31pm

Come on LEINSTER!!!

ktulu123 · 07-12-2012 1:33pm

Great preview! Flying out tomorrow morning, cant wait for this!! Just gotta believe they can do it! C'mon Leinster!!!

pc7 · 07-12-2012 1:33pm

Great preview, goosebumps with excitement reading it, bring it on!

molloyjh · 07-12-2012 1:36pm

ktulu123 wrote: »

Great preview! Flying out tomorrow morning, cant wait for this!! Just gotta believe they can do it! C'mon Leinster!!!

Same here. Doing the JWT with Aer Lingus direct at 10am. Hoping to be in Cafe Pascal by mid-afternoon.

Reloc8 · 07-12-2012 1:45pm

Super preview. I agree this is about getting out of dodge with a LBP and trying not to cough up the 5 points.

I'm seeing Leinster looking to play from 1 to 10 and not much else. If Clermont fire, this may not be enough.

ktulu123 · 07-12-2012 1:52pm

molloyjh wrote: »

Same here. Doing the JWT with Aer Lingus direct at 10am. Hoping to be in Cafe Pascal by mid-afternoon.

I'll see you on that flight sir

.ak · 07-12-2012 2:01pm

Jealous of ye travellers!

Great write up. This is what H-Cup is all about imo. Do or die stuff that legends are made of. Ofcourse we're underdogs, but I'll be watching the game with belief that can overturn them in their backyard with the right game plan.

C'MON LEINSTER!!

Higher · 07-12-2012 2:03pm

Clermont by 2 tries

*runs*

Quint2010 · 07-12-2012 2:28pm

The hearts says a 1 point win. The head says a losing BP and denying them a winning one.

molloyjh · 07-12-2012 2:30pm

Quint2010 wrote: »

The hearts says a 1 point win. The head says a losing BP and denying them a winning one.

I'd take either!

07-12-2012 2:30pm

bricking a hiding!

pc7 · 07-12-2012 2:35pm

Quint2010 wrote: »

The hearts says a 1 point win. The head says a losing BP and denying them a winning one.

I'm full of that Friday feeling and giddy after reading the preview so on the boards superbru I've thrown caution (and what my head is saying) to the wind! Leinster by 3!

justsomebloke · 07-12-2012 2:35pm

I imagine that this is going to be be like watching jaws for the first time, in that I'll be hiding behind the couch for it.

If Clermont weren't a team out looking to make up for going out of last years comp as they did I might be a bit more optimistic but at the moment I think we are missing just a few too many key players to be in with a chance of winning

Quint2010 · 07-12-2012 2:36pm

Deleted User wrote: »

bricking a hiding!

Fear is a good thing in these situations. But in order to win the match-the team must believe that it can win so that's what I hope Schmidt is drilling into the players this week. I was impressed with his "we must win" mantra yesterday. The players must be desperate to win in order to achieve that goal.

ssaye · 07-12-2012 2:37pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZ2HcRl4wSk

Podge_irl · 07-12-2012 2:38pm

justsomebloke wrote: »

I imagine that this is going to be be like watching jaws for the first time, in that I'll be hiding behind the couch for it.

If Clermont weren't a team out looking to make up for going out of last years comp as they did I might be a bit more optimistic but at the moment I think we are missing just a few too many key players to be in with a chance of winning

I think if Clermont were out of the tournament already they would be going all out for this game.

For all that we're terrified of Clermont, Leinster have come out on top the last 3 years. They must both respect and fear Leinster and more to the point be ****ing sick of losing to them!

Gracelessly Tom · 07-12-2012 2:38pm

Too many players missing, Clermont are too good at home and will be itching for revenge.

Clermont by more than 7 and possibly sneaking the TBP.

I really hope I'm oh so wrong on this.

[Jackass] · 07-12-2012 2:40pm

Looking at those teams, it's a scary prospect alright.

Even at full strength, you'd have to question is our backline as good as that?

Clermont, for my money, have the best backline in the northern hempisphere.

Some positives, I think Skrela is a better player than James, and James has a poor enough record against us / Sexton.

I also think our backline might not have the firepower of theirs, but it's a solid unit none the less. We all remember the way O'Driscoll was the general of the backline against them in Bordeaux, and it really took a massive amount of organisation and concentration to marshall Clermont, as once they get the ball out wide, you need to organise and close down space very quickly, and if they have a runner who finds a line to take a pass and they get behind you, you are in serious serious trouble.

A big amount of responsibility lays on the shoulders of Goodman and D'Arcy to close down space quickly and stop them from get free lines of running in midfield in order to tie in players and spin it out wide. They'll create overlaps outside if Goodman and D'Arcy keep infield to mark dummy runners, and then you've got the likes of Madigan and McFadden exposed to some of the best running backs in the world.

I get horrible flashbacks to McFadden being exposed vs the All Blacks on the wing, and just how difficult it was for him to do anything about it. These guys on the wing are just as good as the likes you'll find in that NZ team. Nalaga could state a claim for best winger in the world, and Sivivatu wouldn't be far behind him in that regard.

O'Driscoll and Kearney missing is really going to hurt us here. In the backs they have us big time, and it will be interesting to see how the likes of Madigan step up. Almost out of morbid curiosity, I want to see how Madigan gets on. I slated Kidney for not including him in the international squad, now it's his time to step up and prove me right. (bearing in mind Zebo barely had to catch a ball or make a tackle in his two games at full-back for Ireland, it will be a different test altogether for Madigan in this one, he'll be very busy - that international experience could really have helped - but that's for another day / thread).

In the pack, I'm optimistic. Yes, their pack is insanely good, but I feel like we can not only match them in physicality, but if guys like Leo and Healy and O'Brien are in the mood, that breakdown could become a ferocious mess, and our lads will love that. If we can get under them in the scrum as well, we could really rattle their pack and guys like Cudmore are prone to losing the head and Debaty is relatively inexperienced, if Ross gets to mince him once or twice, will he go into his shell?

The winning of this game for us will come from us playing anti-Leinster. We'll want a real slug fest in the pack, we'll want lots of scrums and lineouts, Sexton is key to keeping us in the right half of the pitch, and we almost need to do what Glasgow can do against a much better team, and that's just drag them into the type of game they want to play.

Our discipline will be much better imo, our experience of these kind of games are too, we've a better out-half to dictate the game...we don't have loads of advantages over them, and certainly not as many as they have over us, but if we can control the parts that are within our grasp to control and if we can play the ref and the occasion right, we've every chance of winning it.

If any team can, Leinster can, and how many times have we seen a team on paper not perform nearly to what was expected on the pitch. We have the best coach, a coach who holds a voodoo grasp over this team, we have the experience, the discipline and the self belief, the longer we can keep them at bay and the longer the game goes on, the more the questions will start to rise in their heads, the more the patience and discipline will diminish. I know we will be in this one, and I pray to BOD we can make it through, but we can do this....I haven't felt this nervous about a game or as bigger underdogs since Croke Park 2009, and our motto back then was ... BELIEVE!

ALLEZ LES BLEUS!!!!

And if all else fails, we've got the hail mary option of throwing Fionn Carr onto the pitch and what a headline maker that would be....Carr burning Sivivatu and strolling in under the posts to steal the game at the death....Carlsberg don't do fantasy endings...

wicklowwonder · 07-12-2012 2:58pm

[Jackass] wrote: »

And if all else fails, we've got the hail mary option of throwing Fionn Carr onto the pitch and what a headline maker that would be....Carr burning Sivivatu and strolling in under the posts to steal the game at the death....Carlsberg don't do fantasy endings...

Would become a Leinster immortal immediately, if that happens I think Carr should be given a lifetime contract!!

justsomebloke · 07-12-2012 2:59pm

I wonder how he is going to use the bench. As I said in the Leinster thread I'm not a massive fan of Browne and Cullen starting as it means Cullen generally has to stay on the pitch for 80 minutes and I think in a game that is going to be this physical I don't think he will last. So I wonder will jennings come on for Cullen with Kev moving to the 2nd row with Toner.

As jackass said I think we need to keep pinging them back but I don't know if Joe has made the best selection for us to keep our own ball while challenging for their's. I think a lot will come down to how good Cronin throws his Dart's and how much of a role Heaslip and Kev make in the lineouts

justsomebloke · 07-12-2012 3:00pm

wicklowwonder wrote: »

if that happens I think Carr should be given a lifetime contract!!

ah now, don't be getting ahead of oursleves here

CIARAN_BOYLE · 07-12-2012 3:03pm

wicklowwonder wrote: »

Would become a Leinster immortal immediately, if that happens I think Carr should be given a lifetime contract!!

He'd get it if that was a winning try

.ak · 07-12-2012 3:08pm

wicklowwonder wrote: »

Would become a Leinster immortal immediately, if that happens I think Carr should be given a lifetime contract!!

The legend's t-shirts would beckon.

ssaye · 07-12-2012 3:16pm

Most important person on the pitch could be
https://twitter.com/Nigelrefowens

so we need to get on his good side.

Cullen needs to be cute here.

leonard7 · 07-12-2012 3:24pm

if you could make a combined leinster clermont 15 who would it be?

totallegend · 07-12-2012 3:26pm

What is wrong with VDM?

I'm not too pessimistic about this, not really sure what my basis for that is but I can see us coming away with a losing bp. I can't remember the last time we conceded four tries in the HC but this will be a real test of that record.

Very excited about D'Arcy at 13 and I'd back McFadden to have a stormer on the wing.

Clermont by less than 7 I reckon.

totallegend · 07-12-2012 3:30pm

leonard7 wrote: »

if you could make a combined leinster clermont 15 who would it be?

Oooh....

Kearney
Sivivatu
BOD
Fofana
Nacewa
Sexton
Parra
Healy
Strauss
Zhirakashvili
Hines
Cullen
O'Brien
Bonnaire
Heaslip

ssaye · 07-12-2012 3:31pm

totallegend wrote: »

Oooh....

Kearney
Sivivatu
BOD
Fofana
Nacewa
Sexton
Parra
Healy
Strauss
Zhirakashvili
Hines
Cullen
O'Brien
Bonnaire
Heaslip

:pac:

ScissorPaperRock · 07-12-2012 3:32pm

Leinster to win by 5

chancer12 · 07-12-2012 3:35pm

Anyone know where Dave Kearney is? Is he still injured? would be a lot more confident about having him come off the bench than Carr.

Higher · 07-12-2012 3:35pm

totallegend wrote: »

Oooh....

Kearney
Sivivatu
BOD
Fofana
Nacewa
Sexton
Parra
Healy
Strauss
Zhirakashvili
Hines
Cullen
O'Brien
Bonnaire
Heaslip

totallegend · 07-12-2012 3:39pm

Higher wrote: »

Yep. He's better than Cudmore.

Higher · 07-12-2012 3:46pm

totallegend wrote: »

Yep. He's better than Cudmore.

I think Cudmore is much, much better than Cullen currently. I suppose we all have opinions though.

molloyjh · 07-12-2012 3:46pm

[Jackass] wrote: »

And if all else fails, we've got the hail mary option of throwing Fionn Carr onto the pitch and what a headline maker that would be....Carr burning Sivivatu and strolling in under the posts to steal the game at the death....Carlsberg don't do fantasy endings...

Fantasy is certainly the right word there! :pac:

Anyone else wonder if maybe a SOB, Jenno, Heaslip back row could have been a better bet? Breakdown havoc and all.....

Podge_irl · 07-12-2012 3:47pm

totallegend wrote: »

I'm not too pessimistic about this, not really sure what my basis for that is but I can see us coming away with a losing bp. I can't remember the last time we conceded four tries in the HC but this will be a real test of that record.

http://www.ercrugby.com/eng/matchcentre/1728.php

Toulouse 33 - 6 Leinster
Stade Ernest Wallon
18th Nov 2007

wicklowwonder · 07-12-2012 3:56pm

molloyjh wrote: »

Fantasy is certainly the right word there! :pac:

Anyone else wonder if maybe a SOB, Jenno, Heaslip back row could have been a better bet? Breakdown havoc and all.....

Fantasy would be BOD called to bench instead of Carr then coming on for last 15 mins and scoring a hatrick!!

I reckon that could be next weeks back row. Jenno will offer something different from the bench this week when there are tired bodies.

Grimebox · 07-12-2012 4:35pm

How did Andrew Goodman get on in his three games? I missed them

GerM · 07-12-2012 4:39pm

I think we'll be going after them in the scrum given the selections. A lot of bulk in our pack. Boss in there barking at them. We're going to absolutely hammer into them up front. I think we'll see our midfield coming onto short ball a lot too. Goodman had some joy with that in Glasgow and I think we'll see more of it this weekend as he looks to break through. For a back, he's a very big lump of a fella at 16 stone. James and Parra won't be too enthused about him coming back inside and looking for contact. He'll look to get his hands free and put Cronin away inside him.

As mad as it sounds, we're going to take them on right up the middle and we're going to give them a serious run for their money doing it too.

molloyjh · 07-12-2012 4:45pm

GerM wrote: »

I think we'll be going after them in the scrum given the selections. A lot of bulk in our pack. Boss in there barking at them. We're going to absolutely hammer into them up front. I think we'll see our midfield coming onto short ball a lot too. Goodman had some joy with that in Glasgow and I think we'll see more of it this weekend as he looks to break through. For a back, he's a very big lump of a fella at 16 stone. James and Parra won't be too enthused about him coming back inside and looking for contact. He'll look to get his hands free and put Cronin away inside him.

As mad as it sounds, we're going to take them on right up the middle and we're going to give them a serious run for their money doing it too.

Inside balls galore so.

That certainly makes sense. Cronin bursting onto the offload in the middle of the park with support from the likes of McFadden and Sexton, then Healy and SOB to follow up before their defense can reset. Jaysus but the excitement/tension is building already.

dastardly00 · 07-12-2012 4:45pm

I'd be very content with a losing bonus point!

Aidric · 07-12-2012 4:58pm

The biggest game of the season?

Regardless, really looking forward to watching the game, always great clashes.

molloyjh · 07-12-2012 5:09pm

Aidric wrote: »

The biggest game of the season?

Regardless, really looking forward to watching the game, always great clashes.

Chatting to their fans before and after the SF in April they all agreed that game should really have been the final. The favourites for the title this year against the winners of last year. With the history of the two clubs it's big enough. Throw in their status in the competition and it's a really huge game. In many ways it is the making and breaking of the campaigns. If Leinster lose here and fail to get any points then their HEC chances are looking bleak. If Clermont lose then it could really hurt theirs and their confidence (losing out yet again to Leinster).

If there's a bigger game of the season that you're aware of.....

jamiedav2011 · 07-12-2012 5:16pm

Higher wrote: »

I think Cudmore is much, much better than Cullen currently. I suppose we all have opinions though.

Don't get the love for Cudmore myself.
He's a looper and not that good of a SR if you take away his 'enforcing' capabilities.
He's not a patch on Hines anyway!

jamiedav2011 · 07-12-2012 5:17pm

It's two of the biggest and most exciting teams in European rugby (probably the two biggest!) fighting it out in a crucial group game.
Definitely biggest game of the season so far.

Hype710 · 07-12-2012 5:18pm

Not sure we've any outside backs left but it's a bit odd seeing two wingers on the bench. Would probably rather Ruddock as an extra option for the back row instead of one of them, especially as Seánie is short on match fitness. Glad he's gone for the more physical options and I think Madigan's selection says more about Joe not having total faith in Conway and on the evidence of this season, I'd agree with him.

jamiedav2011 · 07-12-2012 5:21pm

Hype710 wrote: »

Not sure we've any outside backs left but it's a bit odd seeing two wingers on the bench. Would probably rather Ruddock as an extra option for the back row instead of one of them, especially as Seánie is short on match fitness. Glad he's gone for the more physical options and I think Madigan's selection says more about Joe not having total faith in Conway and on the evidence of this season, I'd agree with him.

Don't think we've any outside backs left in the squad, so would agree with you there alright on Ruddock. He'd be a perfect sub to bring on in this type of game imo.

Realistically Carr won't come on barring an injury to two of our outside backs and even then, personally I'd rather put Boss to wing than bring him on tbh.