Saturday 8th of December - Sportingbet Tingle Creek Chase et al

Colonel Sanders

Huge weekend ahead, I'm flying to Sandown on Friday morning. Going the 2 days rather than just Saturday as I usually do

Really can't wait for the Tingle Creek, Powers have priced it up 4/9 Sprinter, 5/2 Sanctuaire

Think the entries are out tomorrow so most other firms should start pricing it up. While my gut says Sprinter Sacre will have too much class I am hoping Sanctuaire will continue to be written off so I can have a small bet at an inflated price. The handicapper only has 3lbs between them, Sanctuaire has won a good race at Sandown already & I'm betting Chemical would have liked to have got a run into SS to knock the freshness out of him. May look silly Saturday evening but sometimes prices dictate actions

Usually a good novice hurdle and graduation chase on the Friday (Fingal Bay won the former last year as did Inglis Drever in the past) and Captain Conan will surely take on one of the Nicholls band and who knows maybe Overturn too.

The Beecher is on at Aintree too and then its John Durkan day on Sunday. All in all a cracking few days in store

Slattsy

"Chemical" - ha ha

I see they re-opened the entries for the Tingle Creek so hopefully a few more show up.

Cant have Sanctuaire at all. 5/2 is too short imo. SS should be a 1/3 shot and i'd have Sanctuaire at around the 4/1 mark.

Thankfully im not a bookies as i'd probably be raped at 4/1 but thats how i see it.

hucklebuck

Very hard to beat Sprinter but 5/2 looks good value if Sanctuaire can reproduce his last run and the Nicholls bandwagon is rolling nicely.

Colonel Sanders

hucklebuck wrote: »

Very hard to beat Sprinter but 5/2 looks good value if Sanctuaire can reproduce his last run and the Nicholls bandwagon is rolling nicely.

Yeah my thinking is SS most likely winner but Sanctuaire is the bet

hucklebuck

Its effectively 5/2 in a match bet.

Would be prepared to throw 20 on him. If he loses I am 30 off where I would be if Sprinter wins. Tempted to have a few hundred on Sprinter all the same but could I afford not to have that at Christmas.

Enjoy the two days by the way Colonel

ste2010

Slattsy wrote: »

"Chemical" - ha ha

I see they re-opened the entries for the Tingle Creek so hopefully a few more show up.

Cant have Sanctuaire at all. 5/2 is too short imo. SS should be a 1/3 shot and i'd have Sanctuaire at around the 4/1 mark.

Thankfully im not a bookies as i'd probably be raped at 4/1 but thats how i see it.

You don't have to offer odds to get raped..I get raped all the time...it's a hard old life so it is

ste2010

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Yeah my thinking is SS most likely winner but Sanctuaire is the bet

I can't get away from the Kempton course record on the bridle completed as a novice...it will be a watching spectacle for me unless imperial Shabra is running

NaiveMelodies

Jaysus just pick a winner lads!

If you think SS is most likely winner then how is 5/2 value at this moment??? Back them both sure.

SS for me, Sanctuaire to be pegged back by SS 2 out, game over.

ft9

Sprinter Sacre, stylishly.

klairondavis

Sanctuaire is just going to ensure that Sprinter Sacre has a lead until the Pond Fence. Can see Geraghty taking it up there and winning without much fuss. 4/9 is a fair price.

Colonel Sanders

only1stevo wrote: »

Jaysus just pick a winner lads!

If you think SS is most likely winner then how is 5/2 value at this moment??? Back them both sure.

SS for me, Sanctuaire to be pegged back by SS 2 out, game over.

Toss a fair coin & give me 5/4 heads

It's no more likely to come up than tails but 5/4 would be value

ft9

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Toss a fair coin & give me 5/4 heads

It's no more likely to come up than tails but 5/4 would be value

Exactly. Sprinter Sacre is way more likely to win. Does not compare to a coin toss.

RichieLawlor

Sprinter Sacre is going to put in a dodgy one sooner than later. He will be mad fresh Saturday and at the speed he goes and all the exuberance he puts into his jumping he's gonna land on one. 4/9 first time out, I'll watch

Colonel Sanders

ft9 wrote: »

Exactly. Sprinter Sacre is way more likely to win. Does not compare to a coin toss.

Ok toss a coin twice in a row

Give me 5/1 two heads in a row....

It's far more likely we don't get 2 heads in a row but I'd have as much 5-1 as you'll lay

Colonel Sanders

ft9 wrote: »

Exactly. Sprinter Sacre is way more likely to win. Does not compare to a coin toss.

The concept of perceived probability v odds offered does however

ft9

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Ok toss a coin twice in a row

Give me 5/1 two heads in a row....

It's far more likely we don't get 2 heads in a row but I'd have as much 5-1 as you'll lay

So you think sanctuaire is overpriced, and will be having as much as the bookies will lay you?

ft9

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Sprinter Sacre is going to put in a dodgy one sooner than later. He will be mad fresh Saturday and at the speed he goes and all the exuberance he puts into his jumping he's gonna land on one. 4/9 first time out, I'll watch

Someone I spoke to recently described him as "an accident waiting to happen".
I get the feeling, especially on here that people want him beaten. I can't understand this, he's amazing, I'd love to see him win by 20 lengths on the bridal.

He's not a betting proposition.
I have no interest in backing something at 4/9. But I will be sure to watch and enjoy the race.

Colonel Sanders

ft9 wrote: »

So you think sanctuaire is overpriced, and will be having as much as the bookies will lay you?

I'll be backing him alright assuming he doesn't shorten significantly between now & when the other bookies open up

Problem with horse racing is no one can put a concrete probability on a horse winning unlike the coin toss situation

ft9

I suppose if you are taking on a red hot fav, 1st time out is the time to do it.
.

UrbanSea

ft9 wrote: »

Someone I spoke to recently described him as "an accident waiting to happen".
I get the feeling, especially on here that people want him beaten. I can't understand this, he's amazing, I'd love to see him win by 20 lengths on the bridal.

He's not a betting proposition.
I have no interest in backing something at 4/9. But I will be sure to watch and enjoy the race.

Incorrect ft9. Me to go out tonight and make a show of myself enhanced special 4/9 was 1/8

Colonel Sanders

Timeform have SS 11lbs clear FWIW

There'll be better than 4/9 available on the day imo, first time out puts off a lot of folks, I'd be tempted to have a little lump on at 8/13 or bigger tbh and I wouldn't generally back at odds like that.

Slattsy

UrbanSea wrote: »

Incorrect ft9. Me to go out tonight and make a show of myself enhanced special 4/9 was 1/8

You touched 4/6 in running before the jaegar bombs started - easy money

UrbanSea

Ouch some burnt fingers. Managed to maintain my dignity and had an early one.

Jetson has an entry over hurdles this weekend

Overthelast

Cannot see past SS based on last yrs performances. At the prices, I wouldn't take him on & would just watch & enjoy the spectacle. Enjoy the trip over Colonel. I left plenty of cash in the Cotswolds last month & failed spectacularly in my recovery mission at Fairyhouse last weekend so it will be St Stephen's day before I dip my toe into the betting ring again (and hopefully won't lose my foot in the process ).

Colonel Sanders

Ante post market up on Betfair

Nothing in it really outside the big 2

Colonel Sanders

2s on SS with hills & Spoils

5/2 Sanctuaire with Sportingbet & Powers

ft9

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

2s on SS with hills & Spoils

5/2 Sanctuaire with Sportingbet & Powers

You nearly gave me a hernia with that!

TheMilkyPirate

John durkan is going to be some race if they all stand their ground.

Lebowski85

Sprinter will win with his head in his chest.
It's going to be a joy seeing him leap those railway fences.

SRFC

Sprinter Sacre is a racing certainty Sanctuaire won a late season grade 2 where no fresh horses ran it had an easy lead it genuinely wont get withing 15 lenghts of Sprinter (geraghty says hes the best he sat on since moscow) 4/9 is a real gift.

kennyb3

SRFC wrote: »

Sprinter Sacre is a racing certainty Sanctuaire won a late season grade 2 where no fresh horses ran it had an easy lead it genuinely wont get withing 15 lenghts of Sprinter (geraghty says hes the best he sat on since moscow) 4/9 is a real gift.

You can get 1/2

Huntley

The perception that this is some kind of rivalry is a little bit embarrassing. Sprinter Sacre is in a different league, some lunatic who can only run with the choke out isn't going to pose any problem.

I was hoping for 4/6 when the Nicholl's bandwagon gets in full swing but I'll probably murder anything around the 1/2 mark.

premierstone

SRFC wrote: »

Sprinter Sacre is a racing certainty Sanctuaire won a late season grade 2 where no fresh horses ran it had an easy lead it genuinely wont get withing 15 lenghts of Sprinter (geraghty says hes the best he sat on since moscow) 4/9 is a real gift.

Huntley wrote: »

The perception that this is some kind of rivalry is a little bit embarrassing. Sprinter Sacre is in a different league, some lunatic who can only run with the choke out isn't going to pose any problem.

I was hoping for 4/6 when the Nicholl's bandwagon gets in full swing but I'll probably murder anything around the 1/2 mark.

I think Sprinter Sacre will win aswell but you are both being incredibly naive and dismissive of a very very good horse who is lest not forget only rated 3lbs inferior to Sprinter Sacre. I f ye cant find a better 1/2 shot than that yer not looking in the right places tbh.

klairondavis

The ratings are only the opinion of the handicapper and we could argue them until the cows come home. I think Sprinter Sacre's lofty rating is justified and his form has been already franked this season by both Al Ferof and Cue Card. I'm not convinced Sanctuaire deserves his rating. It's based on one run against a field of horses who were over the top at the end of a long hard season. Maybe chasing has been the making of him but he was very regressive over hurdles and never looked entirely genuine. It's not easy to discount that on the basis of a few chase wins. 4/9 or 1/2 about Sprinter Sacre looks a very fair price to me.

Huntley

premierstone wrote: »

I think Sprinter Sacre will win aswell but you are both being incredibly naive and dismissive of a very very good horse who is lest not forget only rated 3lbs inferior to Sprinter Sacre. I f ye cant find a better 1/2 shot than that yer not looking in the right places tbh.

I recall you calling me naive when I similar dismissed Peddlers Cross last season in the Arkle.

Sanctuaire has looked a nice little jumper but his best form is a Grade 2 win against a bunch of over the top horses.

Sprinter Sacre demolished a novice division that has somewhat proven and will prove to be a very strong bunch.

Wasn't it Nicholls who ironically claimed that Sprinter Sacre would need to learn how to race properly to beat Al Ferof? Now he thinks that a dubious animal who runs with the choke out could possibly pose a challenge to the greatest novice chaser in a decade.

Let's not fool ourselves and take the cautious approach of making a claim for Sanctuaire, Sprinter Sacre is different gravy and will prove that on Saturday.

premierstone

klairondavis wrote: »

The ratings are only the opinion of the handicapper and we could argue them until the cows come home. I think Sprinter Sacre's lofty rating is justified and his form has been already franked this season by both Al Ferof and Cue Card. I'm not convinced Sanctuaire deserves his rating. It's based on one run against a field of horses who were over the top at the end of a long hard season. Maybe chasing has been the making of him but he was very regressive over hurdles and never looked entirely genuine. It's not easy to discount that on the basis of a few chase wins. 4/9 or 1/2 about Sprinter Sacre looks a very fair price to me.

I'm on the Sprintre bandwagon aswell and have backed him along with Big Bucks and Quevega to go through the season unbeaten but I think Saturday is the biggest threat to that bet. Nicholl's horse's are clearly in top form aswell which is another plus in the Sanctuaire column

UrbanSea

It appears a lot of people are much better handicappers than the man who is paid to do so.

The facts: Sprinter Sacre deserves to be the price he is. But dismissing Sanctuaire so off handedly is a tad premature I feel. Yes Sprinter may blow him away, but Sanctuaire is yet to even see a horse jump a fence in front of him and whilst he won't have it so easy Saturday, (premierstone made a good point), there will be much better 2/1 on shots around, ones who have 20 pounds in hand, not three.

premierstone

Huntley wrote: »

I recall you calling me naive when I similar dismissed Peddlers Cross last season in the Arkle.

Wasn't me bud, you have me mistaken with someone else I suspect, was it yourself and newuser89 had the spat over peddlers? I was firmly in the Sprinter Sacre camp from an early stage.

mdwexford

klairondavis wrote: »

The ratings are only the opinion of the handicapper and we could argue them until the cows come home. I think Sprinter Sacre's lofty rating is justified and his form has been already franked this season by both Al Ferof and Cue Card. I'm not convinced Sanctuaire deserves his rating. It's based on one run against a field of horses who were over the top at the end of a long hard season. Maybe chasing has been the making of him but he was very regressive over hurdles and never looked entirely genuine. It's not easy to discount that on the basis of a few chase wins. 4/9 or 1/2 about Sprinter Sacre looks a very fair price to me.

This, 1000 times this.

ft9

All will be revealed on Saturday.

3ndahalfof6

I will be firing a few on FRENCH OPERA and HIS EXCELLENCY

but I agree baring a fall SS should win this.

SRFC

3ndahalfof6 wrote: »

I will be firing a few on FRENCH OPERA and HIS EXCELLENCY

but I agree baring a fall SS should win this.

If french opera or that pig of pipes gets within 20 lenghts of sprinter sacre ill give up backing horses wouldnt win if they started running now

3ndahalfof6

SRFC wrote: »

If french opera or that pig of pipes gets within 20 lenghts of sprinter sacre ill give up backing horses wouldnt win if they started running now

I am going with ft9 on this one.

Slattsy

Going to miss the race. Off to Copenhagen tomorrow until Sunday for the Christmas markets.
Might take in the Carlsberg factory if the missus let's me B-)

SRFC

Slattsy wrote: »

Going to miss the race. Off to Copenhagen tomorrow until Sunday for the Christmas markets.
Might take in the Carlsberg factory if the missus let's me B-)

''Thinly veiled.....'':D

Colonel Sanders

UrbanSea wrote: »

It appears a lot of people are much better handicappers than the man who is paid to do so.

The facts: Sprinter Sacre deserves to be the price he is. But dismissing Sanctuaire so off handedly is a tad premature I feel. Yes Sprinter may blow him away, but Sanctuaire is yet to even see a horse jump a fence in front of him and whilst he won't have it so easy Saturday, (premierstone made a good point), there will be much better 2/1 on shots around, ones who have 20 pounds in hand, not three.

Pretty much my thinking.

SS should be favourite, anyone who wants to bet 2s on go right ahead and you may well collect but if SS hadn't been around last year people would be salivating over Sanctuaire IMO

ft9

I love the divide Sprinter Sacre causes on here. People went very silent after the Arkle.

Slattsy

I think people just seem want to take him on for some reason.

SS will win quite easily. Sanctuaire only has one way of running, and if anything that is only going to suit SS better.

Ray Mond

premierstone wrote: »

I'm on the Sprintre bandwagon aswell and have backed him along with Big Bucks and Quevega to go through the season unbeaten but I think Saturday is the biggest threat to that bet. Nicholl's horse's are clearly in top form aswell which is another plus in the Sanctuaire column

Where can u back that and at wat price?

ft9

I've Sprinter and Big Bucks to go unbeaten myself.