Independent news and media share price fall

Seamus1964

What is going on?
Hmm... 0.043 c today..

Fitz123

They are drowning in debt and have had to write their assets down by a substantial amount in recent years, in tandem with internet competition and reduced advertising revenue. Business is only worth about €20 mill odd now, which is down about 99% from the boom. Crazy drop, but troubled business. A lot will depend on the price they get for their SA business. Expect a large share dilution as part of a debt for equity swap of some kind

Seamus1964

0.0302 eurocent today
This Can't Be Good...

Comordha

RIP gents

lucky john

What ever happens depends on Denis O Brien at this stage. He has spent a fortune on a grudge. He can write it off or prove how good he is as a business man by bringing INM back from the dead.

Has he the option to take it private? It wouldn't cost him alot more at this stage I suppose.

JTMan

lucky john wrote: »

Has he the option to take it private?

Won't be allowed under competition law.

Fitz123

Ultimately the debt owners will probably end up taking control of the company

Dr.Glockenspiel

O'Reilly's ran this into the ground. They loaded it with debt in the boom times, which was squandered on empire building fores in Australia, South Africa and India and the purchase of non-profitable, trophy assets like the London Independent. TOR took an estimated E110 million from INM in salary since 2000. The brokers really have something to answer for here. Davy, Goodbody & Dolmen all had buy rating on this junk when it was trading at over 1 euro. I'm sure the partners get the occasional ride on Tony's jet for their trouble.

JTMan

Fitz123 wrote: »

Ultimately the debt owners will probably end up taking control of the company

Denis is a fighter. Can't see him willing to give us his equity easily, he will want to cut a deal with the 7 banks.

Fitz123

True Fungus he is a fighter alright. However, current market value of the company is in the €20 odd million range. Debt is a multiple of that. Even if they get a good price for the SA business, there is still a mountain of debt there. Denis may offer to buy out some of the debt himself to keep control of the company

JTMan

or agree to subscribe to another rights issue in lieu of the debt holders not taking 100% control.

Fitz123

Possibly, but given the level of debt and current share price, it would be a very large RI, and except himself may find it difficult to get subscribers. If he can buy up some debt at a discount, he may stand to do better. Though saying that, with the amount he has lost on INM thus far, will it dampen his enthusiasm !

JTMan

Yeah, this can go 4 ways.
(1) Debt holders take all equity. If so, DOB needs to buy debt from one of the 7 banks. Maybe AIB will sell their debt, like they did with HMV.
(2) Right issue. Still could happen but as you said difficult with such a low price.
(3) Debt holders do not burn the equity holders. INM sell INM SA, APN, NewsStand, Independent Colleges and maybe some regionals. Brings in enough cash for a debt roll over in 2014.
(4) Debt holders take part but not all of the equity.

Probably wont be resolved until early 2014.

doctordolittle

Down to 2c today! Total market cap is now just €11m - the end is nigh?

JTMan

doctordolittle wrote: »

the end is nigh?

Nigh? No. Negotiations with the debt holders have not even started.

doctordolittle

Fungus wrote: »

Nigh? No. Negotiations with the debt holders have not even started.

Fungus, do you reckon it's worth a punt?

JTMan

doctordolittle wrote: »

Fungus, do you reckon it's worth a punt?

Long term, IN&M are fecked. There is no future in print. I would not buy the shares for the long term.

Medium term, IN&M are fecked but judgement day might not be until early 2014 when bank debt expires. Equity holders are going to have to give something or alternatively they will be fully wiped out by debt holders.

If this was a normal business, I would say equity holders will be wiped. As in you will loose 100% of your investment pre mid 2014.

However, there is a slim chance, that Dinny and other equity holders will offer cash for a rights issue via a reverse stock split with debt holder obtaining a large chunk of the company but not 100% equity. Hence, you will be diluted heavily (40:1 is realistic) but you may retain some equity.

Guess:
Stock price floats around 2 cent until early 2014.
Early 2014 equity holders wiped or heavily diluted.
Inside the next 5 years this print business goes bust.

Hence, no upside short term, no upside long term but possible moderate upside medium term in 2014 post debt deal.

Probably best avoiding even at 2 cent.

doctordolittle

Fungus wrote: »

Long term, IN&M are fecked. There is no future in print. I would not buy the shares for the long term.

Medium term, IN&M are fecked but judgement day might not be until early 2014 when bank debt expires. Equity holders are going to have to give something or alternatively they will be fully wiped out by debt holders.

If this was a normal business, I would say equity holders will be wiped. As in you will loose 100% of your investment pre mid 2014.

However, there is a slim chance, that Dinny and other equity holders will offer cash for a rights issue via a reverse stock split with debt holder obtaining a large chunk of the company but not 100% equity. Hence, you will be diluted heavily (40:1 is realistic) but you may retain some equity.

Guess:
Stock price floats around 2 cent until early 2014.
Early 2014 equity holders wiped or heavily diluted.
Inside the next 5 years this print business goes bust.

Hence, no upside short term, no upside long term but possible moderate upside medium term in 2014 post debt deal.

Probably best avoiding even at 2 cent.

Good analysis Fungus, thanks for that!

Dr.Glockenspiel

The Government could block DOB from executing a deal which would give him a controlling stake, due to concerns about findings of corruption against him and the extent of the interest in media which he currently owns.

JTMan

Dr.Glockenspiel wrote: »

The Government could block DOB from executing a deal which would give him a controlling stake, due to concerns about findings of corruption against him and the extent of the interest in media which he currently owns.

Absolutely. That is why he either needs to sell radio interests (and The Sunday Times suggested that DOB has started that process) or he needs to get in bed with DD and do a 30/70 take over of IN&M.

Cavanjack

Anyone know the details of the rights issue or when it's happening?

lucky john

with a share price at .04c now its going to be interesting to see what they will offer to entice in share holders that have been well battered already. 40m is a hell of a lot of shares. I assume that they didn't spend months doing a deal with the banks without been fairly sure they could place this rights issue.

INM don't have a lot going for them into the future unless news paywalls become the norm and that will be a hard sell. The best asset at the moment is DO'B but his interest will be how much of his own money he can make back. It might be worth sticking it out at this stage but getting in deeper??? Does anyone even know whats even fair value here anymore?

JTMan

Cavanjack wrote: »

Anyone know the details of the rights issue or when it's happening?

Later this year. Execution is dependent on a pension agreement. A big if.

Pensioners of INM have little incentive to play ball. They should force the closure of INM which would force a pay out by the Irish government for the deficit in their defined benefit scheme.

Sonnenblumen

I've lost a shirt on these feckers and I think I'll be passing on the forthcoming rights issue and accept the consequential dilution.

My main concern is that the SP will be driven into the dirt and that this dysfunctional asset will be unhitched of all of its liabilities and the runt will be hoovered up by DOB for a pittance.

It's game over on this one.:(

Grawns

UP 15% this morning? Can't find any news though.

lucky john

Unfortunately, up 100% wouldn't dint my loss on this. I'm only holding on because its not wouth selling.

JTMan

Grawns wrote: »

UP 15% this morning? Can't find any news though.

Penny stock. 15% of nothing is nothing.

Grawns

Fungus wrote: »

Penny stock. 15% of nothing is nothing.

Well I bought as penny stock with a hundred in my holding ac left from dividend. Might be worth a punt as penny stock!

Grawns

Up 60% in 1 month
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail%3Fcode%3Dcotn:INM.L%26it%3Dle

euroboom13

buying as long as d`ob....
My break even is now 12c
Bought in first at more than 1e, but love this stock!
genuine power brokerage for 100yrs
SHALL do a jig and post more after 13 cent

recon bout a month away.....

Suffering Jbox

Folks,
If I was to buy, would I be better off buying now before the rights issue, or after the rights issue? Any insight on both scenarios appreciated.

gordongekko

Suffering Jbox wrote: »

Folks,
If I was to buy, would I be better off buying now before the rights issue, or after the rights issue? Any insight on both scenarios appreciated.

Its not a share I keep a close interest in but has a rights issue been announced?

odd1

Fungus wrote: »

Denis is a fighter. Can't see him willing to give us his equity easily, he will want to cut a deal with the 7 banks.

Was talking to a lad during the week €750 per week for lads to fit 15 units water meters per day bonus after that. Seirria. DoBknows before most

Suffering Jbox

gordongekko wrote: »

Its not a share I keep a close interest in but has a rights issue been announced?

Looking for €40m apparently. This will lead to the number of shares in issue to be tripled. So if you buy the shares now, would you be wiped out?

gordongekko

Suffering Jbox wrote: »

Looking for €40m apparently. This will lead to the number of shares in issue to be tripled. So if you buy the shares now, would you be wiped out?

In general most right issues are at a discount to the current share price. Also if sir Tony or dob don't take up their rights the market may be flooded with shares creating a depressed share price.

Or else the market will look at the details and think its a great idea and the price will rise.

lucky john

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/media-and-marketing/independent-news-media-says-40m-to-be-made-in-rights-issue-1.1517732

They have been getting the ducks in a row for a while now but no firm date for the rights issue yet.

I see them tipped by davy's as a good bet for a recovering economy. I did notice that the sunday property supplements (if thats not a banned phrase) have more than one page latley.

There is no price for an issue been touted yet but you would think with the share price stuck around 4..5c it would be 2..3c. To raise 40m will take a hell of a lot of shares so major dilution..again. I dont know if they have a date this restructuring needs to be completed by or if they can afford to hang on and see if the measures already done will lift the price.

Suffering Jbox. it might be worth splitting your money. spend half now at 4..5c/share and then sit tight. you will then be offered x number of new shares at maybe 3c but there will be the saving on transaction fees, maybe €60 which at .03c/share is worth 2000 shares.
Worth a punt????

Suffering Jbox

Lucky John, that is tempting. Still trying to get my head around the rights issue. If you triple the number of shares in issue, does that mean earnings per share will be reduced by 67% (2/3) ? Surely this would have a huge effect on the share price? Or theoretically, all thing being equal, should the value of your shareholding be the same before and after the rights issue?

private

Shares trading at 0.07 today. or ?

HalfTri

Share had a strong week. Chairman really speaking the share up. Davy stockbrokers put it to outperform.

What are people views now?

gordongekko

HalfTri wrote: »

Share had a strong week. Chairman really speaking the share up. Davy stockbrokers put it to outperform.

What are people views now?

Are davys their stockbroker?

HalfTri

gordongekko wrote: »

Are davys their stockbroker?

Correct....

sausagefingers

back up to 10 cents.....is this going to be a stock that heads up up and up, and we are all left asking why we never got on board?

private

I own "gulp" 2500 shares ( in at 4 cents). No regrets

I also bought petroneft at the same price last week - 1900 at 4 cents.
Both times used a dividend in my goodbody account ( thanks Dragon oil).

sausagefingers

happy days. I wonder is Aer Lingus a buy ahead of Q3 results at the start of November? They have fallen about 25% from recent highs.

gordongekko

private wrote: »

I own "gulp" 2500 shares ( in at 4 cents). No regrets

I also bought petroneft at the same price last week - 1900 at 4 cents.
Both times used a dividend in my goodbody account ( thanks Dragon oil).

who are you trading with? Commission charges are surely a killer on a €100 trade?

sausagefingers

IG markets seems to be the best value to trade with. Worth checking out if you are not using them already

HalfTri

sausagefingers wrote: »

happy days. I wonder is Aer Lingus a buy ahead of Q3 results at the start of November? They have fallen about 25% from recent highs.

Aer lingus - I don't think there a buy. As mueller said - Europe is now very competitive and Ryanair are taking losses on certain flights... I can see them dropping a bit more but long term I still like them.

private

gordongekko wrote: »

who are you trading with? Commission charges are surely a killer on a €100 trade?

They are yeah (€32 approx) but it's dividends that arrive into my goodbody account so it's kind of pain free. Have already covered the commission on the inm and am up 100% shares and am on the way with petroneft.

Would change to a cheaper broker if I was looking to invest new money though so I can't recommend them.

Seamus1964

0.16 c today.

600+mil new shares on the way 0.07c each

Any future share price predictions?

Seamus1964

Got today offer from INML to buy few thousand extra shares 0.07c each (direct payment to them)
Its only couple of hundred something something euro so I think I'll take them.
Can somebody confirm that I do'nt need to pay any covernment stamp duty or similar afterwards?

Sonnenblumen

Seamus1964 wrote: »

0.16 c today.

600+mil new shares on the way 0.07c each

Any future share price predictions?

Yeah, use your money more effectively to purchase snake oil. This share is a dog. The co is more or less dependent on a shrinking newspaper sector in Irl, unless you think you are going to make your fortune from Evening Herald/Sindo ad revenues.