Willl Facebook ever decline ?

Captain Hman

I mean 6 - 7 years ago, a large amount of people where on MySpace
and Bebo regularly and now the activity on both sites has gone way down.
So does anyone think Facebook will meet the same fate ?

frozenfrozen

As soon as apps and games start spamming peoples pages like they did on myspace on bebo it will start to die...


oh yeah that's already happened...

rab!dmonkey

Yes. It's already starting, especially now as their attempts to 'monetise' the site become increasingly intrusive.

marnie d

I hope so, it's been pissing me off way too much for way too long, I only stay on it to keep in touch.

BrokenArrows

Yes. I give it a few years.

SafeSurfer

Yes. It is already looking so 2009.

Captain Hman

I read somewhere, Facebook revenue was starting to decline due to the fact a lot of people access it on
mobile devices and advertisements can't be displayed on them

Hippies!

It will once you saps stop using it.

"Keeping in touch" :rolleyes: What kind of touchy feely crap is that :mad:

yeahimhere

Yup, just read today that 70% of their accounts (business pages mostly) are considered dead pages not being updated or interacted with;

http://digitaldoughnut.com/blogs/blogs/with-70-of-facebook-pages-not-being-regularly-updated--are-businesses-making-the-best-use-of-facebook

Double edge sword - small businesses are sick that most coverage now has to be paid and users getting annoyed with spam / ads. It won't ever die though and evolve into something else. And something else take it's place.

doccbh

No, it has a dominant market position, and in such a business, market share is difficult to gain once one firm has emerged as leader. The question is whether the discipline of the market will construct Facebook's ability to adapt. That remains an open question.

yeahimhere

Maybe they have a new business already planned - since they own everyone's photos....staff will now search for the dodgiest and blackmail everyone. Instant $$

NegativeCreep

SafeSurfer wrote: »

Yes. It is already looking so 2009.

How come there's ads on Boards mobile site then?

I don't understand how Facebook can annoy anyone. Just deleted it if you hate it so much!

batistuta9

Captain Hman wrote: »

I read somewhere, Facebook revenue was starting to decline due to the fact a lot of people access it on
mobile devices and advertisements can't be displayed on them

FB are working heavily on becoming a 'mobile first' company, they're already calling themselves one

They're retraining employees in android & iOS & want all new features to be developed for both desktop & mobile at the same time

+ of course you can display add on mobile devices, most of the free apps you'll get have them

it's just they're not worth a much as ads on the desktop to FB, so they'll be looking into changing that

latenia

doccbh wrote: »

No, it has a dominant market position, and in such a business, market share is difficult to gain once one firm has emerged as leader. The question is whether the discipline of the market will construct Facebook's ability to adapt. That remains an open question.

Nice pretentious language; some people reading it might even think you're making sense. The one small flaw in your argument is that every single one time market-leading social media site has passed into oblivion, just as facebook will eventually.

Spiritual

I don't use it. Have I missed much?

frozenfrozen

inb4 people who pretend they don't know what facebook is

doccbh

latenia wrote: »

Nice pretentious language; some people reading it might even think you're making sense. The one small flaw in your argument is that every single one time market-leading social media site has passed into oblivion, just as facebook will eventually.

You're entirely wrong. We're talking about the mainstream market, which has evolved and matured since those firms went into decline. None of those providers had a dominant market position in the mainstream market.

Gee_G

Spiritual wrote: »

I don't use it. Have I missed much?

No

Solair

I don't know, I found that I used to use it quite a bit in the early days when I was still adding friends to it but now it's just boring.

I probably won't close my account, but I don't really use it very much more than as a glorified contacts book that I might occasionally dip into to contact someone.

I don't trust its PM facilities for anything private and I really couldn't be bothered interacting with businesses on it. That's what boards talk to forums are much better for!

sanitygone

It will soon have to do some thing so very annoying now . Hate time line did not want one . The ads are really irretating to so weird woman keeps poping up wanting to be my friend weird

Rodin

Without a shadow of a doubt.

Shryke

Only if a viable competitor comes along. Social media is here to stay. Myspace did a lot in that area, people migrated to Bebo as well as attracting a lot of new members but it was still fairly amateur compared to what Facebook offer.
They're the first truly comprehensive and global social network, where everyone, from almost any age group, can be expected to have an account, and that separates it from what's come before.
It needs to not fcuk up, more or less, which it could. But only if it goes down hill and a rival steps up in a meaningful way will we see facebook really decline.

There's plenty to be said for Fox screwing up Myspace but I always thought it was an awful ugly mess.

When looking at figures for facebook and the like it helps to look at longer term things like population growth with regards to younger and more internet centric generations.

Nothing's solid but facebook is something new and different to what there was before, so time will tell.

Senna

Of course it wont last and its current growing popularity will be its demise. The teen's/early 20's segment will move to a site were their parents/aunties/teacher/employers aren't. Its popularity will be its downfall.

land lover

I hate facebook. I hope it is gone soon

TheIrishGrover

I think it's got about 2-3 years max. People are fickle: Today's biggest thing is next year's Bebo or Myspace. All it takes is for a site that will allow people (especially 15-28 yearolds) to not only perform the current functions of Facebook but will also allow them to customise it's layout easily like Bebo and let them share music and videos easier directly (as opposed to linking to Youtube at the moment). Let them upload pics to it like Facebook's own Instagram or Yahoo's Flikr and let them send microupdates like Twitter. I know all these functions are out there with various addons and links etc but it's limited. Make a site that's fully customisable. The day a site that comes out and lets a teenager drag and drop all their little video, audio, rotating photo album and twitter-like widgets easily and fun and lets them post all any pic/video/song/SMS with a single click from their phone Facebook will be on an almost instant decline.

Facebook's mobile presence is shoddy and is really only good for uploading phone pics. The next Facebook will turn that 180 degrees. The desktop website will be almost an afterthought and the site itself will be geared for mobile/tablet devices

Wibbs

As history has shown us damn near everything declines. It's the nature of things. Only the timescale varies.

narwhalthe

Google+ might take over. A lot of people don't use it because they find it confusing but loads of people found Facebook hard to get around at first.

Also, Google own so much of the market now so I wouldn't be surprised if their one took over!

NegativeCreep

narwhalthe wrote: »

Google+ might take over. A lot of people don't use it because they find it confusing but loads of people found Facebook hard to get around at first.

Also, Google own so much of the market now so I wouldn't be surprised if their one took over!

How much are they paying you for this post? :pac:
Google+ is **** :L

BUBBLE WRAP

Spiritual wrote: »

I don't use it. Have I missed much?

frozenfrozen wrote: »

inb4 people who pretend they don't know what facebook is

Sorry to in form you. the first quote is the post before yours Frozen, So you'r just a tad late...

seamus

Captain Hman wrote: »

I read somewhere, Facebook revenue was starting to decline due to the fact a lot of people access it on
mobile devices and advertisements can't be displayed on them

Oh the ads appear on mobile alright. Facebooks big problem is that it's very difficult to serve relevant commercial content to people who aren't looking for it. Companies are quickly realising that ads on Facebook generate very little business and are stopping wasting their cash on it.

Facebook's next move will be to start charging for the larger business pages and even a pay-per-interaction model, which might be commercially more sustainable in the long run.

Google and even boards's business models are different in that people are largely searching for very specific content, so advertising can be easily made relevant. Facebook only has one real function for people, and that's interacting with friends and family. Advertising in that context is exceptionally difficult to make relevant without just appearing spammy and intrusive.

Fr_Dougal

narwhalthe wrote: »

Google+ might take over. A lot of people don't use it because they find it confusing but loads of people found Facebook hard to get around at first.

Also, Google own so much of the market now so I wouldn't be surprised if their one took over!

Google don't 'own' the market, they do a few things very, very well and everything else they do is pretty poor; Google+ is an example of one of the things they do poorly.

narwhalthe

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Google don't 'own' the market, they do a few things very, very well and everything else they do is pretty poor; Google+ is an example of one of the things they do poorly.

I said so much of the market, not all of it. True about Google+ being something they do poorly, but it could take off.

Wibbs

seamus wrote: »

Companies are quickly realising that ads on Facebook generate very little business and are stopping wasting their cash on it.

Google and even boards's business models are different in that people are largely searching for very specific content, so advertising can be easily made relevant.

True S but I'll make a prediction here; sooner or later people may see the element of emperors new clothes with certain aspects of the google ads model and start to examine how much they actually bring in in revenue over cost. I strongly suspect an element of smoke and mirrors in the biz model that may not be as advantageous as they make out for quite a few sectors out there. If this does happen and confidence starts to teeter, they may well see a drop off themselves. I further suspect they know it, or fear it, hence them getting their multicolored "do no evil*" fingers into broader pies.




* I have found that among the "new" web based self described mottos when examined, Boards is one of the few who actually live up to theirs.

Xavi6

land lover wrote: »

I hate facebook. I hope it is gone soon

Good thing you're under no obligation to use it then, right?

lukesmom

Hope not. I know I'm going against the grain here as apparently it's cool to hate facebook! Personally I love it. It has enabled me to connect with relations that live abroad that I probably would never have ever spoken to otherwise. It also helps me to keep in touch with friends who I wouldn't see very often and best of all it has been amazing to reconnect with schoolfriends that I never thought I'd bump into again on any level. I think it's invaluable and if people don't like it don't join, simple as.

anhedonia

NegativeCreep wrote: »

How much are they paying you for this post? :pac:
Google+ is **** :L

Google+ is not ****. Its a far superior product to Facebook, the only problem is that it doesnt have the user-base, quite a big problem.

But the Google+ interface is slick, the way you can drag 'n' drop friends into circles is nice, and google hangouts is actually better than skype for multi-way video conferencing.

Google+ could easily outshine Facebook if it found a way to attract users. Shouldnt be hard for them to achieve either, given that most of us use their mail and search products.

kowloon

frozenfrozen wrote: »

inb4 people who pretend they don't know what facebook is

What is this 'Friendface' you speak of frozenfrozen?

ladysadie

I dont think it will pass into oblivion. Its like the grown up version of Bebo and Myspace. I know plenty of people who's Grannies are on Facebook.
I do think it is declining in popularity, less stupid posts about everything people do on a daily basis.
People mainly post travel photos, weddings, christenings, big events.
Keep friends and family abreast of the major things in life.
People are alot more savy about posting stuff to socal networking sites now adays, so I dont think you can really compare Facebook's fate to that of MySpace and Bebo.

Im sure another site will come along and attract younger people, thats always the way. Facebook, however, wont fade to nothing like MySpace and Bebo.

anhedonia

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Google don't 'own' the market, they do a few things very, very well and everything else they do is pretty poor; Google+ is an example of one of the things they do poorly.

It seems they do a lot of things exceptionally well, lets list a few:

search,
email,
maps,
operating systems.
internet browsers,

What is the 'everything else' you refer to that is pretty poor ?

NegativeCreep

anhedonia wrote: »

Google+ is not ****. Its a far superior product to Facebook, the only problem is that it doesnt have the user-base, quite a big problem.

But the Google+ interface is slick, the way you can drag 'n' drop friends into circles is nice, and google hangouts is actually better than skype for multi-way video conferencing.

Google+ could easily outshine Facebook if it found a way to attract users. Shouldnt be hard for them to achieve either, given that most of us use their mail and search products.

Everyone who has gmail has google+ which is quite a lot of people. It hasn't taken off because it adds nothing new and has nothing that would persuade anyone to use it over Facebook.

FoxT

I, too, think that G+ is better than facebook. However, people who are used to FB are not all going to migrate to G+, because FB is 'good enough' - and the benefits to be gained from learning how to use/manage G+ vs the learning curve to do it, is marginal.

I have accounts on both FB & G+ but I rarely use them, because, personally, Boards & twitter work better for me, albeit in completely different ways.

I dont think FB is going to fail, necessarily, but, I do think the faddishness will wear off & people will use it for the things it is good at, and use other services likewise.

-FoxT

cooliotheboya

Twitter is taking over for me.

oppenheimer1

Hippies! wrote: »

It will once you saps stop using it.

"Keeping in touch" :rolleyes: What kind of touchy feely crap is that :mad:

You mustn't be human, because all humans have a need for social contact, to be part of a wider social circle - ultimately its about being wanted, liked and envied. Facebook fills this need quite well.

I've been lucky enough to meet some wonderful, fantastic people over the course of my rather short life. Life however has its stages and when things like finishing school or university or changing job or location can lead to losing these connections - connections that may have made your life richer. Facebook, and social networking in general lets you hold onto those. Being a simple click away, its less formal than any other form of contact.

Facebook and the like isn't all about that of course I'll admit. There are narcissists who like to advertise a version of their life which appears to be beautiful, thrilling and exciting - when in reality its just as mundane as the rest of ours.

Will facebook fail, will Ireland collapse, will the EU fall apart, will humans die out? Yes, certainly. Over long enough time-scale the probability of failure of everything approaches 1.

Mezcita

With all of this I think the key thing is to separate yourself from how you act on Facebook and how the majority of their users behave.

Meaning, myself and a bunch of buddies were discussing this recently. Not one of us had ever clicked on a Facebook ad which had been streamed to us. But the key thing is that this is a company which made $1bn in it's first quarter of streaming ads to people via their mobile phones. Therefore while most people you know might not go near any of their advertising, a lot of people do since it is so ultra targeted.

As for how long it lasts, who knows? There are not too many brands which are still "cool" twenty years after they first became popular and certainly none on a scale of Facebook. If they can avoid pi.ssing too many people off I'd say it will last due to people's laziness about moving to another social network.

The balance for them is to keep people interested while not annoying them with too much advertising.

sock puppet

Captain Hman wrote: »

I read somewhere, Facebook revenue was starting to decline due to the fact a lot of people access it on
mobile devices and advertisements can't be displayed on them

That's nowhere near true.

Tony Soprano.

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Google don't 'own' the market, they do a few things very, very well and everything else they do is pretty poor; Google+ is an example of one of the things they do poorly.

Google do own the market. They own the market for a search engine, where 99% of people use it as their search engine of choice. That's their core business, always was.

Google+ is a different type of media. Facebook own that one. Google tried to own it, but failed.

Facebook might decline in popularity, but it will be around for ever. Bebo and Myspace never hit those popularity levels, with over 1 billion users (and growing).

I much prefer Twitter myself, hate Facebook.

Feathers

anhedonia wrote: »

It seems they do a lot of things exceptionally well, lets list a few:

search,
email,
maps,
operating systems.
internet browsers,

What is the 'everything else' you refer to that is pretty poor ?

Their video site is pretty popular too

gb40

google video?

Feathers

gb40 wrote: »

google video?

YouTube

gb40

I see you can buy movies on youtube now!

Emeraldy Pebbles

My friend list is nowhere near as active as it was 3-4 years ago.