MATCH PREVIEW & THREAD: Wales vs NZ, Cardiff, Sat 24 Nov, 5:15pm

Swiwi

Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 George North, 10 Rhys Priestland, 9 Mike Phillips, 8 Toby Faletau, 7 Sam Warburton, 6 Ryan Jones (capt), 5 Luke Charteris, 4 Bradley Davies, 3 Aaron Jarvis, 2 Matthew Rees, 1 Paul James.

Replacements: 16 Ken Owens, 17 Gethin Jenkins, 18 Scott Andrews, 19 Aaron Shingler, 20 Justin Tipuric, 21 Tavis Knoyle, 22 James Hook, 23 Scott Williams.

New Zealand: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (capt), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.

Reserves: 16 Dane Coles, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Charlie Faumuina, 19 Brodie Retallick, 20 Victor Vito, 21 Piri Weepu, 22 Aaron Cruden, 23 Ben Smith.

1953 featured several notable events: Crick & Watson discovered DNA, Hilary & Norgay scaled Everest, and Queen Elizabeth II ascended to the English throne. And on the 19th December, Wales defeated NZ 13-8 in a two tries to one victory at Cardiff Arms Park. That made it 3 Welsh wins to NZ’s solitary triumph in 1924, including the infamous 3-0 defeat in 1905 over “The Originals”. In that match, Bob Deans, great uncle to ex-All Black and current Wallaby coach Robbie “Dingo” Deans, was denied an apparently legitimate try, handing The Originals their only tour defeat. Little did the delirious Welsh fans of 1953 know that it would be a long time between drinks, in fact to this day their lips remain sorely parched.

In more recent times, fortunes could not be more contrasting. New Zealand finally managed to win another RWC, with a little help from our good mate Craig (you know, of French Huguenot descent), and have gone from strength to strength, while Wales have been imitating her Majesty’s skydive at the London Olympics’ opening ceremony, and are plummeting down the IRB world rankings, in what could almost be described as free-fall. They will be hoping their Warren Gatland parachute is working or it could be a very bumpy landing on the third tier.

Nevertheless, this writer feels NZ has an Achilles’ heel, and that is a current lack of “hard men” in the mould of Thorn & Kaino, and a front row that, while once world class, is ageing somewhat and no longer imposing itself on opposition forward packs (ah for the heady days of Hayman at his best). Italy were eventually subdued, but it took a dazzling 20-minute cameo from Cory Jane to put the result beyond any doubt and attain the 30-point winning margin I had so imperiously predicted.

Looking firstly at the Welsh team, one name immediately stands out and that is Leigh Halfpenny. You almost need sunglasses these days to watch Leigh play, he has been that dazzling in a sea of Welsh mediocrity: deadly with the boot, positionally sound, and inventive on attack. A Lions 15 jersey surely beckons.

Wales will also be pleased to welcome Jonathan Davies back from an ankle injury - one of the standout centres from this year’s 6N, he will be looking to form a powerful combination with Jamie Roberts. The question remains, can they combine power with slight of hand against the wily defenders Nonu & Smith? Wales will hope that where there’s a guile there’s a way.

Finally, Gethin Jenkins will be looking to make a big impact off the bench, many Irish pundits feel he is in a two-way battle with Cian Healy for the Lions loosehead berth, although not too many media hacks across the Irish Sea seem to share this view.

Turning to NZ, and Israel returns from injury. He is an amusing, quirky and likeable person, and you could certainly says he’s a bit of a Dagg. He’s also a fabulously talented footballer, with an uncanny ability to spot a gap, and a prodigious punter of the pigskin.

Conrad Smith appears to have finally won the recognition in NZ he so richly deserves, with a number of daily rags running tribute articles on him in recent times. He reads the game like the back of his hand, is an unerring defender, and links beautifully with his outsides, although lacking the brute Polynesian power that many Kiwis seem to expect in their centres. But at a greater than 90% success rate, Smith makes his presence felt more by his absence, never more so than at Cardiff 6th October 2007, when he joined similarly astute players Aaron Mauger & Douglas Howlett in the stands.

Last but not least, Kieran Read has been in sublime form for much of 2012, and must surely be competing with the likes of Argentina’s Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe, and South Africa’s Bryan Habana for IRB player of the year. He always seems to do the right thing at the right time, is earmarked as the successor to McCaw as captain, and is considered a better player by many than the legendary Zinzan Brooke.

Prediction: I expect (dearly hope) that Wales under Gatland will come out with pride, fire & brimstone, and a greater accuracy to their game that should keep the match close enough, and maybe a NZ victory by 10 or so points. On the other hand, if Wales trundle out the rubbish they have produced in the preceding fortnight, it could be a very long day at the Millennium office. Cheers!

tbm

Add Charlotte Chruch to that poll there.

Nice work. I'd fancy an in-form Kearney ahead of Leigh for the Lions though. Offier more in attack me thinks, and he has a mean drop kick.

I think a 10 point win for NZ sounds about right. Gatland has been all smiles this week, but I reckon he's tearing stips of the lads behind closed doors. I expect a decent Wales performance.

thomond2006

Katherine Jenkins ftw

tbm

I still swoon at the thought of the crisp, even tan Gav displayed on that baltic February day in Lansdowne Road during the 2006 6 Nations. Pure class.

.ak

A true spokesperson for Tango if ever there was one.

Swiwi

tbm wrote: »

Add Charlotte Chruch to that poll there.

Nice work. I'd fancy an in-form Kearney ahead of Leigh for the Lions though. Offier more in attack me thinks, and he has a mean drop kick.

I think a 10 point win for NZ sounds about right. Gatland has been all smiles this week, but I reckon he's tearing stips of the lads behind closed doors. I expect a decent Wales performance.

Doesn't seem possible, sorry. You're stuck with Gav.

Swiwi

Carter apparently in doubt with leg strain. Gives Wales some hope!

Judgement Day

George North out - Welsh hope extinguished!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2012/nov/22/wales-george-north-new-zealand

duckysauce

Swiwi wrote: »

Carter apparently in doubt with leg strain. Gives Wales some hope!

Hope they are just playing mind games with Gatland

freyners

great preview Swiwi. will have to get to a pub quick after the argie game:D

Swiwi

Revised teams (changes in bold)

Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 Liam Williams, 10 Rhys Priestland, 9 Mike Phillips, 8 Toby Faletau, 7 Sam Warburton, 6 Ryan Jones (capt), 5 Luke Charteris, 4 Bradley Davies, 3 Aaron Jarvis, 2 Matthew Rees, 1 Paul James.

Replacements: 16 Ken Owens, 17 Gethin Jenkins, 18 Scott Andrews, 19 Aaron Shingler, 20 Justin Tipuric, 21 Tavis Knoyle, 22 James Hook, 23 Scott Williams.

New Zealand: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (capt), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.

Replacements: 16 Dane Coles, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Charlie Faumuina, 19 Brodie Retallick, 20 Victor Vito, 21 Piri Weepu, 22 Beauden Barrett, 23 Ben Smith.

danthefan

Will keep half an eye on this game but it's going to be a massacre. I find really one sided games aren't much fun to watch anymore, unless it's Leinster of course.

TheJims

Is this on irish tv ???

Swiwi

TheJims wrote: »

Is this on irish tv ???

BBC, I think.

jamiedav2011

Really looking forward to this. With Carter out hopefully Wales can put it up to BNZ.

duckysauce

Swiwi wrote: »

BBC, I think.

yep bbc2 not on rte

thomond2006

Looking forward to this, somehow I fancy a Welsh resurgence here. Still supporting NZ.

Swiwi

Can Wales do a Tonga?

irishbucsfan

Hoping for a strong performance from the almost blacks tbh

Swiwi

If you don't like the BBC, there is also NZ commentary available. I know some people don't like Grant Nisbett et al, but I like his style.

Swiwi

thomond2006 wrote: »

Looking forward to this, somehow I fancy a Welsh resurgence here. Still supporting NZ.

Good man yerself, Thomond.

Storm 10

Just wondering RTE are NOT showing the All Blacks matches, anyone any info its a disgrace when you dont have BBC

Swiwi

Sounds like a "choice" atmosphere. There we go, a bit of Kiwi slang for ye all.

rebel girl 15

Hore should be off!! Disgraceful what he did!

Bradley Davis off, Jarvis knee is gone as well

irishbucsfan

Pitiful from Hore. Bad enough to strike someone, but a cheap shot like this that not on.

Swiwi

What has happened to NZ's discipline. Hore you plonker!

For the record, I do NOT condone such play. Until the AIs, I was proud of NZ's recent clean record.

thomond2006

What a disgusting cheap shot from Hore.

Podge_irl

NZ lucky not be down to 14 men for the entire game.

kmart6

Jesus that was crazy!

leakyboots

The cheapest of shots, a coward's punch

duckysauce

2 players in 1:40 :eek:

Reloc8

Thuggish by NZ 2 - blindsided clock in the jaw - lengthy ban coming his way.

ednwireland

can someone tell me how hore is not red carded

Turtwig

Declining a kick at goal? :eek:
Madness surely?

Mal-Adjusted

my respect for NZ just keeps falling...

Swiwi

Take the points Wales!

Higher

NZ are so good that they don't need to engage in that sort of nonsense. I mean it makes it even worse in my opinion. Its just pure thuggery.

SuprSi

ednwireland wrote: »

can someone tell me how hore is not red carded

As the commentator said it happened so far away from the ball that the linesman probably wasn't even looking.

leakyboots

Stupid from Wales, they should have taken the 3 points. Superb AB defence from the maul

Reloc8

ednwireland wrote: »

can someone tell me how hore is not red carded

Unfortunately neither the ref or either TJ picked it up.

There's no provision for referring suspected foul play to the TMO in this series (its being trialled in the English Premiership if I recall correctly).

rebel girl 15

ednwireland wrote: »

can someone tell me how hore is not red carded

Ref didn't see it, and I presume touch judge didn't see it because it was so far off the play

goreyguy

NZ dont need to be dirty. Its dumb when they do it then.

Reloc8

Fewking New Zealand.

I want to like, I really do, but there's just a nasty streak not much less than a mile wide that runs through them.

Come on Wales.

Mal-Adjusted

ednwireland wrote: »

can someone tell me how hore is not red carded

maybe i'm wrong, but isn't it something to do with if none of the officials see it first time? i.e. a decision can't be made on the footage unless it's a try?

Stheno

rebel girl 15 wrote: »

Hore should be off!! Disgraceful what he did!

Bradley Davis off, Jarvis knee is gone as well

I just turned this on as Jarvis I think was stretchered off, could someone tell me what happened?

Hagz

I hope Cory Jane runs in 3 tries down Williams' channel.

rebel girl 15

Poor by Priestland! Halfpenny could have had a go from there

goreyguy

Priestland is a joke.

leakyboots

Six points not looked at by Wales, criminal stuff. Brainless from the captain, especially after missing the first kick

gooch2k9

Who is the ref?

SuprSi

Stheno wrote: »

I just turned this on as Jarvis I think was stretchered off, could someone tell me what happened?

Accidental I think - in a ruck and someone ended up falling on the back of his leg while he was on the ground. Again, I think this is what happened!