Hennessy Gold Cup 2012

Nulty

Looking at the market I can only see one outsider of great potential, at least for this race and thats Duke of Lucca. He's a big enough price but plenty of doubts at this stage. The other one I like lots is Fruity O'Rooney. Bobs worth is a worthy favourite and likely that Burton Port is in there to keep his weight down although Tidal Bay is in there on 166 too. The Giant Bolster and Weird Al will go to Haydock I think.

Time For Rupert. Why is he out of the betting?

Theres loads you could pick but all the more confusing not knowing who's confirmed for it.

Overthelast

Time for Rupert - I believe I read somewhere that he's out of that race, if not the season.

UrbanSea

Time for Rupert is out for the season.

Looked for some value in it at the weekend. Was thinking maybe Join Together at 20's. Not sure what the plan is though if he's going to run or not

Nulty

That's awful news. That horse has had no luck. You know he has more there. Suspensory ligament apparently.

RichieLawlor

Tidal Bay is a complete nutcase, you just couldn't back him. He could run like a drain for 20f and then decide to run on.

Bobs Worth is a plodder, can see him being beaten everywhere before Cheltenham, where it would appear he specializes.

hucklebuck

Burton Port around 20s and Ikorodu Road at 33s look appealing. Burton goes well fresh and Ikorodu is a course and distance winner that should be in off 10stone ish, his running style could cause horses on heavier weights a bit of trouble.

Panrich

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Bobs Worth is a plodder, can see him being beaten everywhere before Cheltenham, where it would appear he specializes.

Very harsh assessment of Bob's Worth, I think. He's also won his only race at Newbury. He might be better going left handed? His only defeats have been at Kempton and Ascot, both right handed tracks.

Nulty

Richie, its a 3m2f110y race. I think he can handle the speed this lot have over that trip.

hucklebuck

Diamond Harry is a fair punt at 33's given he has pulled up his last three runs but he loves Newbury and he will be off a lovely mark. Planet of Sound is another that makes a lot of appeal at 20's.

It's a minefield at the moment.

premierstone

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Tidal Bay is a complete nutcase, you just couldn't back him. He could run like a drain for 20f and then decide to run on.

Bobs Worth is a plodder, can see him being beaten everywhere before Cheltenham, where it would appear he specializes.

:eek: Some fcukin plodder. you must have been burnt badly by him Richie??

shy-tall-knight

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Tidal Bay is a complete nutcase, you just couldn't back him. He could run like a drain for 20f and then decide to run on.

Bobs Worth is a plodder, can see him being beaten everywhere before Cheltenham, where it would appear he specializes.

I quite like the look of Tidal Bay, took a few runs but the change to Nicholls from Howard Johnson looks to have made a difference. Showed in the Bet365 chase that he's well able to carry a big weight and he absolutely sluiced up over hurdles last time. Whether he can win this off a mark of 166 I'm not so sure but I'd expect a big run. Would like them to stick Harry Derham up to take a few pounds off him.

RichieLawlor

premierstone wrote: »

:eek: Some fcukin plodder. you must have been burnt badly by him Richie??

Nah I actually punted him in the RSA but he's slow as a big boat. The actually definition of a plodder

Nulty

I think there will be plenty of rain about and the going could be very testing.

Tidal Bay likes it soft but carrying top weight off his current mark in very testing conditions might cause him problems. Having said that, he was immense in the Bet365 admittedly against inferior horses. You couldn't rule him out now Nichols has figured out how to train him. I'd want 20/1 though.

Carruthers is very tempting off the same mark as last year but he was in much better form then and has been awful for his last 5+ runs. Is he just being looked after for another tilt at this race? Dual Hennessy winner is a title worth holding out for. He goes in the mud too.

Planet Of Sound wants better ground. The going isn't confirmed yet with the races more than a week away but I think he's being aimed at the Sefton. Not an antepost option.

Teaforthree has the potential to be a favourite horse of mine. I didn't even back him at Cheltenham (stupidly, cause it was obvious! I backed that under-achiever Alfie Spinner). He won't be at 100% for this cause the Welsh National is at his beck and call (I had to look that up). It will probably be my biggest bet of the year when the Welsh National Market comes out. Anything over 5/1 or 6/1 will get thrashed. Although Richard Lee has been doing a great job in getting Le Beau Bais mark down in preparation for Chepstow. I digress.

Hold On Julio has more there and plenty of money has been seen for him. He didn't run to his potential at the Festival and got a perfect prep behind Balthazaars King last month. Seriously dangerous horse.

Junior can't be ignored either. Since he hosed up at the festival he's had obvious excuses and his run in March was very good regardless. There was more left to do then and wan't able to show it subsequently. Anyone heard what the plan is for him this season?

premierstone

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Nah I actually punted him in the RSA but he's slow as a big boat. The actually definition of a plodder

He has had an Arkle winner and a Chanpion Hurlder winner behind him on seperate occasions, thats a bit more than the bare form of a plodder.

sting60

Bobs Worth is a steering job.He will win hard held.

rossom

Hennessy Gold Cup

Diamond Harry 25/1

Fair enough he's been awful the past couple of seasons but I can't pass up the 25/1 about Nick Williams 2010 winner Diamond Harry who won this off a 13lb higher mark in a very quick time pretty much on good to soft ground when winning fairly cosily from Burton Port and Denman. His 3 starts this year have resulted in him being pulled up on all occasions but as a result he's now extremely well handicapped off a mark of 143 and he should get into this with a lovely racing weight of 10-3. His recent reappearance in the Badgers Ale Trophy was pretty disappointing as his record fresh is very good but he had a bit of a setback which caused him to miss the Charlie Hall so I think that run may have been needed to blow away the cobwebs. He absolutely adores Newbury with a record of 1-1-1-3-1-1 in all spheres (3rd behind Big Bucks) and he is undefeated in 2 chasing starts at the track and I'm definitely hoping that a return to what is probably his favourite venue will spark a bit of a revival. In what may have been his early season target all along, I think 25/1 is well worth taking despite him not being at his best for a couple of seasons and if this 9 year old bounces back to form he could make an absolute mockery of his mark of 143 and land this for the 2nd time in 3 years.

Goldcupfav

Fancy FIRST LIEUTENANT for this myself think the 3m + trip will suit him and the soft ground shouldnt be a problem.

hucklebuck

Goldcupfav wrote: »

Fancy FIRST LIEUTENANT for this myself think the 3m + trip will suit him and the soft ground shouldnt be a problem.

Hold fire Goldcup, Mouse is only deciding mid week if he lines up

http://www.attheraces.com/article.aspx?hlid=530308&lid=&raceid=&title=Morris+delays+First+Hennessy+call&ref=atrPA+Racing+Feed&nav=&sub=&day=Mon

ste2010

Got on diamond Harry this morning at 33's now 20/1.
Agree with rossom. His mark is ridiculously low and I'm hoping the course brings him back...bobs worth will go in the tron

ste2010

ste2010 wrote: »

Got on diamond Harry this morning at 33's now 20/1.
Agree with rossom. His mark is ridiculously low and I'm hoping the course brings him back...bobs worth will go in the tron

Fe ck it ...I'm on again!!

Nulty

hucklebuck wrote: »

Hold fire Goldcup, Mouse is only deciding mid week if he lines up

http://www.attheraces.com/article.aspx?hlid=530308&lid=&raceid=&title=Morris+delays+First+Hennessy+call&ref=atrPA+Racing+Feed&nav=&sub=&day=Mon

In fairness it looks pretty likely conditions will be met:

Morris said: "We'll keep our options open until Wednesday. The top weight staying in might encourage us to go and the choice is whether to run on soft ground in England or bottomless ground in Ireland. We'll wait a couple of days and see what the lovely weather is going to do! By Wednesday night we'll know whether we're travelling or not."

hucklebuck

Based on this I would be holding on to my money:

"The top weight staying in might encourage us to go"

sonnky

Planet of sound 20/1, second off the same mark last year, worth an e/w bet! Won a novice chase on soft against french opera so hopefully he goes well!

Jayo11780

what a hard race to call....
Bob's Worth probably wins if he turns up..
The Package should be there or thereabouts..
Tidal Bay E/W is a no-brainer if the last few weeks are anything to go by!

Frisco Depot & Diamond Harry will have their E/W supporters on the day too, it is indeed intriguing...

Conclusion:

The Package @ 7/1 for me!

hucklebuck

Did anyone hear why Burton Port isnt running?

rossom

Had some of the 41/1 about Roberto Goldback on Betfair after Nicky The Needle changed his mind about running him. Think he's a very interesting contender after winning impressively on his first start for Henderson.

ste2010

I think Frisco depot is in off a nice weight could see his price drifting also

rossom

ste2010 wrote: »

I think Frisco depot is in off a nice weight could see his price drifting also

Not sure about his price drifting as Longsdon seems to really like him. I do think he'll run a big race though

Nulty

Teaforthree goes in this with AP on board. If I had known he was going to run I'd have taken the 34 on Betfair at the end of last week.

He's interesting no matter where he runs beyond 3m in soft ground. He'll have to step up to match what Tidal Bay did to Roalco De Farges in the Bet365.

Tidal Bay 11-12
Roalco de 10-6
15 lengths

Teaforthree 11-7
Roalco de 11-7
9 lengths

Rhinestone Cowboy

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Tidal Bay is a complete nutcase, you just couldn't back him. He could run like a drain for 20f and then decide to run on.

Bobs Worth is a plodder, can see him being beaten everywhere before Cheltenham, where it would appear he specializes.

Bobs Worth beat the rock on ruby the reigning champion hurdler in his novice hurdle year. Not many plodders do that . FL has the benefit of two runs and is three times the price though.

Rhinestone Cowboy

ste2010 wrote: »

I think Frisco depot is in off a nice weight could see his price drifting also

The problem with Frisco is Sam ! He has ridden one winner since start of 2011-12 season ...the day Long Run beat Burton Port at Newbury.

mailburner

happy to see a few going for diamond harry
just backed it ew at 25s (betvictor)

hard to be confident but off 10-3 the price is too big
horse owes me plenty

RichieLawlor

Rhinestone Cowboy wrote: »

Bobs Worth beat the rock on ruby the reigning champion hurdler in his novice hurdle year

Means nothing. I think I remember Hardy Eustace being beaten by Crystal D'ainay and Lough Derg at different times and he was a duel champion and nether of those were speed demons.

You can pick a single result to argue any point. The fact remains Bobs Worth has as much of a turn of foot as Truckers Tavern (RIP) and will be only seen to his best over extreme trips or in a complete slog on bad ground.

He might win tomorrow, 3 miles in a swamp will be right up his alley

Johner

Bobs Worth for me, just cant see past him.

MoscowFlyer

The Package is the one I have my eye on!

tommyombomb

Looking at Lion Na Bearnai. He looks pretty impressive for the price. Am I reading something wrong or is totally outclassed here with the field

rossom

tommyombomb wrote: »

Looking at Lion Na Bearnai. He looks pretty impressive for the price. Am I reading something wrong or is totally outclassed here with the field

Trainer said they wanted to get a prep run into him before this which they haven't been able to do so I think based on that alone it will probably be pretty hard for him to win a race this competitive

tommyombomb

rossom wrote: »

Trainer said they wanted to get a prep run into him before this which they haven't been able to do so I think based on that alone it will probably be pretty hard for him to win a race this competitive

****e, made the bet. didnt even think of looking to see if he runs well fresh. from looking at his form, he is not great first time out. hopefully this will change tomorrow. prob shouldnt be backing when tired at night.

Goldcupfav

Alot of trainers talk bull**** and say horse needs the run, will come on for the run etc.. Fact is horse is being sent over across the water for a crack at one of the biggest races of the season. Connections are not spending all that money to travel over with a horse that isnt ready to run.

ste2010

Goldcupfav wrote: »

Alot of trainers talk bull**** and say horse needs the run, will come on for the run etc.. Fact is horse is being sent over across the water for a crack at one of the biggest races of the season. Connections are not spending all that money to travel over with a horse that isnt ready to run.

The problem there is some go over for the trip away especially if its a syndicate

Big Daddy Cool

I'll be on The Package, just nowhere near as confident now with Timmy Murphy not riding it .

Giuseppi

Extremely competitive field and I would say most horses in the race have been tipped up here bar the one I will be backing Soll. Has been backed into 20s from 33s on PP this morning. Formally trained by Willie Mullins, Soll is bottom weight and I believe has definite e/w value with PP paying out on 5 places.

hucklebuck

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Means nothing. I think I remember Hardy Eustace being beaten by Crystal D'ainay and Lough Derg at different times and he was a duel champion and nether of those were speed demons.

You can pick a single result to argue any point. The fact remains Bobs Worth has as much of a turn of foot as Truckers Tavern (RIP) and will be only seen to his best over extreme trips or in a complete slog on bad ground.

He might win tomorrow, 3 miles in a swamp will be right up his alley

That was over three miles though.

prettyboy81

Diamond Harry, no form coming into the race but history show's he likes Newbury & previous race winner!

Colonel Sanders

I had a small bet on Diamond Harry at 25/1 with 5 places. I fully expect to have done my dough after about a mile but the price is too big not to risk a small ew

Also backed Bobs Worth each way at 11/2

kksaints

Small bet on Hold on Juilo to win.

ft9

Small ew on Soll 20/1 5 places.

mailburner

small ew on soll also at 20s

cant have bob at those odds

mailburner

bloody impressive

what price for the gc now?
5/2 my guess

Johner

Johner wrote: »

Bobs Worth for me, just cant see past him.

Christmas is payed for!

Super performance.

Nulty

Teaforthree just didn't have the pace. Welsh National winner.

Fruity not good enough.