Megatron Saturday 17th November

hucklebuck

I have run my program and if anyone want a look at the results they are here:

https://rapidshare.com/files/2047926593/Saturday.rar

You just have to extract the file with winrar or winzip might do it.

The columns are as follows:

Heaviest - biggest weight horse has won with
Mark - highest mark the horse has won on
R - runs
W - wins
P - places
U - unseated
PU - pulled up
F - fell
Succ - percentage of wins and places to runs

Good luck, I will post my megatron selections later or tomorrow.

3ndahalfof6

I am lost on this 1, WTF is a megatron, so I can involve myself and my family (to eat or to pretend were on a strict diet).

UrbanSea

A megatron is a form of bet, it can be an accum,lucky 15, yankee or any of them, with the crucial addition of Liverpool.

This may be wrong, but it's not an exact science

hucklebuck

Urban has misled you, if you have 7 horses put them into a bet with Liverpool to win, this gives you one megatron which is comprised of one accumulator and 8 trons.

Basically its:

A + B = Y

A + B = 1

A = Number of horses
B = Liverpool
Y = Number of tron bets
1 = Number of accumulator bets

3ndahalfof6

is Liverpool the clinch (they must be involved) getting late here 3rd bottle, I would like to partake, but I need to know the rules, if I called the bookies and said I want to do a megatron,

would they point me to the bog.

3ndahalfof6

hucklebuck wrote: »

Urban has misled you, if you have 7 horses put them into a bet with Liverpool to win, this gives you one megatron which is comprised of one accumulator and 8 trons.

Basically its:

A + B = Y

A + B = 1

A = Number of horses
B = Liverpool
Y = Number of tron bets
1 = Number of accumulator bets

Fook I need to back to the teaching institute, I will watch your results and the whys and why not,

then I to will join the (kids giving them grass is lovely with red sauce) red sauce makes every meal perfect, if your not older than 31 and a half.

hucklebuck

3ndahalfof6 wrote: »

is Liverpool the clinch (they must be involved) getting late here 3rd bottle, I would like to partake, but I need to know the rules, if I called the bookies and said I want to do a megatron,

would they point me to the bog.

Liverpool have to be involved in the trons and accumulator and so are vital to the megatron. One of the trons must be a bumblebee also.

So basically it's Liverpool and a bumblebee otherwise the megatron doesnt work

3ndahalfof6

hucklebuck wrote: »

Liverpool have to be involved in the trons and accumulator and so are vital to the megatron. One of the trons must be a bumblebee also.

So basically it's Liverpool and a bumblebee otherwise the megatron doesnt work

Thank you, there big but never about to help once it gets cold, has anyone ever got one of these to hit (to your knowledge) considering Liverpool's record this season? I wont mention previous seasons.

the groutch

here's my megatron

Ewell place 1:05 lingfield
Money spider 1:00 punchestown
Farraaj 2:15 Lingfield
Boston's Angel 2:45 Punchestown
Glen's Melody 3:15 Punchestown
Darlan - RP Hurdle Sunday
Go Native - Morgliana Hurdle

and of course

Liverpool to beat Wigan

UrbanSea

3ndahalfof6 wrote: »

Thank you, there big but never about to help once it gets cold, has anyone ever got one of these to hit (to your knowledge) considering Liverpool's record this season? I wont mention previous seasons.

Liverpool's form mean that it's incredibly unlikely you'll get one up, but half of the fun of the Megatron is to watch Liverpool let you down.

As consistent as the sun setting.

3ndahalfof6

UrbanSea wrote: »

Liverpool's form mean that it's incredibly unlikely you'll get one up, but half of the fun of the Megatron is to watch Liverpool let you down.

As consistent as the sun setting.

Perfect seeing of the situation, (I am sure there is a short word for this but it escapes me for the moment)

hucklebuck

3ndahalfof6 wrote: »

Thank you, there big but never about to help once it gets cold, has anyone ever got one of these to hit (to your knowledge) considering Liverpool's record this season? I wont mention previous seasons.

Not the whole one but I got a load of trons and a bumblebee, Liverpool letting it down

3ndahalfof6

I will give it a go tomorrow, is EW aloud on some bets (like the bigger prices).

ft9

My Megatron for Saturday.

1.55 Galaxy Rock

2.35 Casey Top

11.55 Mikael Dhaguenet

Liverpool to beat Wigan

hucklebuck

3ndahalfof6 wrote: »

I will give it a go tomorrow, is EW aloud on some bets (like the bigger prices).

Usual betting rules apply so it's all win or all ew. We are all meagtronning these days

Slattsy

So..... whats a megatron ?

ste2010

Mine is only a tron for tomorrow and an obvious tron at that

Vasco du vonceray
Sire collonges
Grans Crus

Have ew on forpadydeplasteror and kings mere also in the PP GC

ft9

FFS Slatts how many times do you have to be told?

It is currently pissing rain in Cheltenham, hopefully that rain feckz off and doesn't ruin the ground.

Slattsy

hucklebuck wrote: »

Liverpool have to be involved in the trons and accumulator and so are vital to the megatron. One of the trons must be a bumblebee also.

So basically it's Liverpool and a bumblebee otherwise the megatron doesnt work

Slattsy

ft9 wrote: »

FFS Slatts how many times do you have to be told?

It is currently pissing rain in Cheltenham, hopefully that rain feckz off and doesn't ruin the ground.

Any tips floating about ?

Hulk Hands

Does laying Liverpool count as a Megatron?

ft9

Casey Top tomorrow. 50/1

rossom

3.40 Cheltenham

Zafaraban 25/1

Tony Carroll's 5 year old grey gelding Zafaraban looks a fascinating contender in the finale at Cheltenham on his handicap and stable debut off a mark of 110 on the back of a 254 day break and I think this unexposed a progressive looking son of Dalakhani could go well here at a nice price for a stable that took this race back in 2009 with another handicap debutant in the shape of Zafranagal, a half brother to this new recruit. Zafaraban, unlike his half brother who began his career on the flat in france before joining Carroll, has had a very different career to date starting his life in Ireland with two runs for Tony Mullins before joining his cousin Seamus for one solitary run which was his last start back in March. His two starts for Tony Mullins came in October and November at Naas and Limerick in maiden hurdles in the mud won by the very talented pair of Lyreen Legend and Jenari. On both occasions, he definitely showed some promise and he was never asked to be put into either race and was allowed to come home in his own time. It looked very much like they were educational spins and that handicapping would be his game in due course. At some point between November 2011 to March of this year, he joined Seamus Mullins where I thought he made an extremely impressive stable debut at Wincanton back in March.

On the back of a 4 month absence and after receiving some late support in the market, (66s into 25s) he was held up towards the back under his pretty inexperienced rider Charlie Brown. After the 2nd flight, 4 horses forged about 5 or 6 lengths clear of the remainder (contained the first 3 in the betting and the first two home) and they kept that advantage throughout the contest. Prior to entering the home straight, Zafaraban made some very nice progress from out of the pack (only horse to come from off the pace) to 3rd between the final two flights of hurdles and under a minimal amount of hands and heels riding he closed very nicely on the front two to finish beaten 9L back in 3rd and 24L clear of the 4th. That race is very hard to quantify in terms of form and for the most part it looked pretty dire. The comfortable winner Old Tricks has only had two starts since and was well beaten in both races but they were a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle and Grade 2 Novice Chase so the Tizzards must think a bit about him. The 2nd Black Pond, a former 74 rated flat horse and who received 8lb from Zafaraban, has only had one start since when sent off a 5/1 shot on his handicap debut in a Class 2 Juvenile Hurdle a month later where he was tailed off but he was still going pretty well before clouting 3 out and being ultimately eased. The form of those in behind is dire but this race was faster than the Division I Maiden won by the now 134 rated, and has to be said an unextended and easy winner, Monte Cavallo.

He was then sold out of Seamus Mullins's yard to Paul Downing and into Tony Carroll's yard where he'll be making his handicap debut off a mark of 110 on the back of a 254 day absence. Its very hard to evaluate how harsh/kind this mark is for Zafaraban as the button has never been pushed on him (nor whip raised) in his short career but he has shown enough in his to date (especially in his last race) to lead me to believe that he could be a bit better than his current mark. Given that he could be anything, I've looked at his siblings to try and gauge what sort of form he could expect to run up to. In addition to his half brother Zafranagar who won this same race on handicap debut (off a mark of 105 with a peak rating of 119), his half brother Smart Catch has won a Novice Hurdle and then finished 2nd behind a now 126 rated animal conceding him 6lb and his only other sibling (that I can find) is the once raced flat half brother Zafarqand who was beaten a nose on his debut by the talented 95 flat rated Olympiad for John Oxx. His 3 half brothers have all shown some pretty decent form to suggest that a mark of 110 could be manageable for him. I also find it very interesting that Tony Carroll trains both Zafranagar and Smart Catch so its clearly a family he knows very well and likes working with which adds to the huge intrigue about this runner. With Tony Carroll being such a shrewd operator, there is no way in hell he doesn't know he won this back in 2009 with this fella's half brother (Paul Downing owns him too) and I think its definitely very telling that his first start for the yard comes in this race. Completely unexposed and an absolute enigma, Zafaraban is an extremely fascinating contender in this Class 3 Novices Handicap and under Lee Edwards I'm hoping that history repeats itself as this grey follows in the footsteps of his half brother by landing this contest at a lovely price.

rossom

‎3.10 Uttoxeter

Qualitee 10/1

I really fancy the chance of Claire Dyson's 7 year old mare who I think looks poised to run a massive race after her recent reappearance run on the back of a 10 month absence. Formerly a modest maiden hurdler, Chasing definitely seems to be Qualitee's game where she has 2 wins from her 4 starts in this sphere and who looked very progressive before her near year long absence. After a long year of hurdling in 2011, Qualitee made her chasing debut in a handicap when a distant 4th but she used that experience to great use when absolutely bolting up on her 2nd start off a mark of 86 at todays course by an eased down 17L 6 days after her chasing debut. She made pretty much all that day and ground her rivals into submission with some excellent jumping to score in emphatic fashion. She didn't beat trees that day either as the 3rd The Darling Boy scored on his next start off the same mark (albeit on the back of a 7 month break) and was beaten 0.25L on his only subsequent chase off a 10lb higher mark. 9 days later and off a 5lb higher mark of 91 Qualitee repeated the feat when again an excellent round of jumping (she had a slight tendency to jump right handed) pummeled her rivals into submission as she won eased down by 12L when upped to todays trip of 2m4f for the first time over hurdles. The form of that race isn't up to much but she beat what was put in front of her very well and it was a really excellent showing.

LTO at Ludlow she was dropped back to 2m off a mark of 100 where she put in a performance better than the bare result when she really shaped as if she needed the run. Under Nick Scholfield, this mare travelled into the race very nicely before being headed at 4 out by the eventual winner. She wasn't overly pressed until the run in when her jockey gave her a few whips to make her run out to the line as she was beaten 23L in 5th. She returns to the scene of her first triumph Uttoxeter and is back over 20f today and I'm glad to see she is back at a left hand track as she does have that tendency to jump left handed. Tom O'Brien gets back in the saddle today and has a perfect record on this mare after partnering her to her two chasing successes. Trainer Claire Dyson has hit a really rich vein of form the past couple of months after a spell in the doldrums and can't do much wrong at present. Dropped 1lb to a mark of 99, Qualitee is only 8lb higher than her easy success at the back end of last year and on that effort alone she looks more than capable of scoring off her current mark. Add in that she has only had 4 starts in this sphere and looked very progressive before her break and it can only add significantly to your confidence. Although she is taking on some in form rivals today, I'm very confident of a massive showing and I think 10/1 massively overstates her chances. For those of you inclined, I'm fairly certain she's going to start about half the price she currently is so she represents a very good opportunity of backing to lay off closer to the time for a free bet.

Colonel Sanders

Hills betting evs Ireland -23 on the rugby

Ladbrokes betting evs Fiji +25 on the rugby

Happens quite often that there's a "gap" in the handicap like that. Unloading on both and hoping the winning margin lands in the middle is my megatron

Yet to click but bloody France missed a conversion against Scotland in the 6 nations to hit the magic number when I'd 750 on each side of the handicap both at evs

Colonel Sanders

Ladbrokes 5/2 Grand Crus, 3.3 to lay

He seems to have been backed during the night, I definitely thought there'd be 3/1 this morning when I saw he was 3.65 going to bed last night

MoscowFlyer

Really like Michael Flips in the PP Gold Cup. Maybe not to win but def to run a big race and place. At 20s in places I just can't pass it up, expecting a front running performance.

In other races I have my eye on Global Warming 12.55 Uttoxeter. 11/4 fav but worthy of it IMO. Expecting a win here.

Johner

I'm backing Mikael D'haguenet, When will I ever learn.

Nulty

Glad I didn't have a bet with the rains. Haven't got a clue about the PP. I'm very interested in the 3m3f race with the last 3 winners of the 4m at the festival. Teaforthree is this years Welsh National winner in waiting provided he doesn't go too high in the weights.

Johner

Johner wrote: »

I'm backing Mikael D'haguenet, When will I ever learn.

:rolleyes:

Nulty

I was actually saying, out loud, "Please don't fall, please don't fall". I was convinced he would fall at the last after the second last blunder.

Colonel Sanders

Nice, the first 2 races containing the "future stars" aren't on TV.

If racing are serious about getting people interested in the sport STOP letting bookmakers dictate tv race listings.

Johner

Nulty wrote: »

I was actually saying, out loud, "Please don't fall, please don't fall". I was convinced he would fall at the last after the second last blunder.

Don't know how Townend stayed on either! Mount Benbulben's jumping was shocking all the way round.

klairondavis

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Nice, the first 2 races containing the "future stars" aren't on TV.

If racing are serious about getting people interested in the sport STOP letting bookmakers dictate tv race listings.

It will never happen unfortunately due to the money the bookmakers are pumping into advertising on Channel 4. It will be wall to wall handicaps every Saturday as long as there's racing on terrestrial tv.

klairondavis

Johner wrote: »

Don't know how Townend stayed on either! Mount Benbulben's jumping was shocking all the way round.

Mount Benbulben looks like a bit of a headcase. I thought he was travelling into it quite well at the time though.

Mikael D'Haguenet if anything is too tall for the game. He doesn't seem to be able to get his long front legs out from underneath him when he meets one short. Very similar mistake there to his fall at the last in the Drinmore.

sonnky

Poquelin in the Paddypower!

Johner

Far West was very impressive coming up the hill there.

rossom

2.05 Uttoxeter

Hassadin 20/1

Michael Blake's 6 year old Hassadin is quite a risky proposition given that he is yet to win in a handicap and he seems a bit temperamental but if strengthening up and freshened up from a 210 day absence then I think he could go well at a nice price with the excellent Tom Bellamy taking an extremely useful 7lb off his back. A really poor maiden on the flat who couldn't win off a mark of 45 for Andrew Haynes, (he did win a selling hurdle for him back in 2010) Hassadin joined his current stable back in September of last year and he's definitely made up into a far nicer hurdle than his flat rating would suggest, with his current mark standing at 115. After a pretty decent effort over an extended 2m at Wolverhampton on the flat on stable debut on the back of a 14 month break, Hassadin started out his hurdles career in very good form with two excellent 2nds at Hereford when beaten by a neck on both occasions off marks of 100 and 106. The 2nd of these was truly an excellent effort when he was denied by a huge John Flint gamble on his horse Grams And Ounces whilst giving that rival 17lb (taking Thomas Flint's 10lb claim into account) with the front two pulling 20L clear of the rest of the field. That form has subsequently taken a huge boost with the winner scoring on his next two starts including off a 17lb higher mark and he is now 29lb higher rated than he was when scoring that day. To escape an impending 9lb hike in the weights, Hassadin ran off the same mark of 106 but was well beaten and when raised to 115 it was a similar story. I can't give any explanations for those defeats other than he just seems a horse who has off days.

After those disappointing defeats, Hassadin was stepped into a Selling Hurdle at Ludlow where he recaptured his from in terrific fashion to bolt in by 24L from King of Castile, receiving 2lb from that rival (when including James Best's claim). Although its normally hard to quantify how good a performance in a race of this nature is to handicapping, its made a lot easier because he beat a thriving rival that day who had won his last two starts in handicaps impressively, latterly off a mark of 102 and despite getting thumped by Hassadin he resumed winning way on his next start in a Selling Hurdle by 19L so despite the grade it came in Hassadin's victory was rather impressive. It was hardly surprising that, back in a handicap off a mark of 115, Hassadin was well beaten on his next start a couple of weeks later but at the end of March this year on his 2nd last start off a mark of 113 he ran an excellent 2nd at todays course when beaten 2.5L when upped to 3m for the first time in a race that looks very solid form. Having found things difficult going from quite a bit out, Hassadin stayed on resolutely under Noel Fehily to run an excellent 2nd. The form of that race took a major form boost when the 3rd Abnaki won on his next start off a 1lb higher mark on his next race and also ran a luckless race in defeat last month off a 10lb higher mark than this 3rd. Upped 2lb for that effort to his current mark of 115, Hassadin's last race came in April at Bangor where - you guessed it - he ran no sort of race at all and was comprehensively beaten.

I'm hoping Michael has got him in good working order after a break and on a fair few pieces of his form I think a mark of 115 should not prove beyond him on a going day. His trainer Michael Blake has hit a rich vein of form at present with 5 winners from his last 17 runners (4-9 over hurdles) and Hassadin could hardly be returning at a better time for the yard. Blake has proved he is very adept at readying a horse after a break with another of his horses Lamps running out a very impressive winner on the back of a break last weekend. Tom Bellamy, a 7lb claimer that I rate very highly, takes the ride and brings down Hassadin's mark to effectively 108 and this should help no end for this 6 year old's chances. Bellamy is a very interesting booking on what is his first ride for the yard because Hassadin's owner, Wayne Clifford, is the owner of Bathwick Tyres who sponsor the David Pipe stable and given that Bellamy is based out of the Pipe yard I've got an inkling that he was asked to take the ride on this horse and its his only ride of the day. I think the same thing could well have happened with another Clifford horse trained by Michael Blake in the form of Sporting Boy recently, when Tom Scudamore had his first two rides for the stable when partnering that horse to two facile victories. If coming here fully wound up and on a going day, I'm hopeful of a big showing from Hassadin and hopefully he can land this contest at a nice price.

Colonel Sanders

klairondavis wrote: »

It will never happen unfortunately due to the money the bookmakers are pumping into advertising on Channel 4. It will be wall to wall handicaps every Saturday as long as there's racing on terrestrial tv.

I remember going to Cheltenham in November 2006. A few lads in work who'd have half an interest in racing were very interested in a horse I and a colleague kept going on about. Told him he was running Saturday and to watch as he was a serious prospect

Wasn't on terrestrial TV so they couldn't watch it. That horse was Denman who beat none other than Don't Push in the 2m 4 novice chase (the race has since switched to the Friday)

Nulty

Fancy Teaforthree highly but not sure if today is the day. I would like to see Any Currency win and have a couple of quid on. Wouldn't be surprised to see Deal Done win with Barry on (Roberto Goldback).

Nulty

Haven't had a bet so this is my list of who I want to win.

1. Forpaddytheplasterer
2. Hunt Ball
3. Fingeronthepulse

Nulty

Forpadytheplasterer - Paddy Power - Paddy Brennan

naughto

went for triolo dalene

hucklebuck

There must be something wrong with Grands Crus, he never went a yard.

sonnky

Cross Kennon overpriced in the next at Cheltenham!

ft9

Casey Top you beaut! 4th at 50/1

Slattsy

I thought i was sitting pretty with my 5/1 on Grand Crus after seeing it backed into 7/4 at the off...

Go **** yourself David Pipe - sham :mad:

Colonel Sanders

Had a small each way on Walkon, nothing lost but was never getting to the winner.

I've 20/1 Al Ferof for the King George however

Casey Top ran a blinder for a trainer I follow a bi in Ireland. Thought he'd be well outclassed today

hucklebuck

I like Abnaki in this one, lovely price too.

wex_lad

Slattsy wrote: »

I thought i was sitting pretty with my 5/1 on Grand Crus after seeing it backed into 7/4 at the off...

Go **** yourself David Pipe - sham :mad:

Ahhhh I was waiting for the first post about Pipe. Stop talking through your pocket you muppet.

Nulty

Brick Red in the last. Will struggle with the ground + trip. If it was a 1m4f race I'd be very happy.