Help me understand Lotto Prize Breakdowns

intellectual dosser

I recently started doing the lotto (I wont go into the why).

On Saturday night I had 2 numbers + the bonus. When I looked at the prize breakdown I saw that you got nothing for this, but €5 was awarded for matching 3 numbers.

Similarly:
Match 4 = €37
Match 3 + Bonus = €32

I must be missing something obvious, but I thought getting the bonus would be harder than getting any random number, and thus the chances of getting it are less?

SEPT 23 1989

The jackpot never seems to be won in the weeks leading up to a bank holiday

mailforkev

In the lotto everything is based mainly around the 6 main numbers, the bonus ball is only there to create a few more winners. Before the bonus ball you needed minimum 3 numbers, this hasn't changed. Probability doesn't come in to it in that respect.

The biggest problem I have is that since they created the Plus draws the prizes in the main draw for everything apart from the jackpot decreased massively. A mate of mine got 5 numbers a couple of years ago in a big rollover draw (think the jackpot was €12m or so) and he only got around €3k. In the olden days he would have got a lot more.

intellectual dosser

intellectual dosser wrote: »

I recently started doing the lotto (I wont go into the why).

On Saturday night I had 2 numbers + the bonus. When I looked at the prize breakdown I saw that you got nothing for this, but €5 was awarded for matching 3 numbers.

Similarly:
Match 4 = €37
Match 3 + Bonus = €32

I must be missing something obvious, but I thought getting the bonus would be harder than getting any random number, and thus the chances of getting it are less?

I've always sucked at probability but I don't think getting the bonus is statistically harder.. You're hitting 3/7 numbers instead of 3/6 so you get less.

snubbleste

It's just an opt-in tax on the poor.

summerskin

intellectual dosser wrote: »

I recently started doing the lotto (I wont go into the why).

On Saturday night I had 2 numbers + the bonus. When I looked at the prize breakdown I saw that you got nothing for this, but €5 was awarded for matching 3 numbers.

Similarly:
Match 4 = €37
Match 3 + Bonus = €32

I must be missing something obvious, but I thought getting the bonus would be harder than getting any random number, and thus the chances of getting it are less?

The bonus ball is effectively just another number and offers you an increased chance of a win.

to get match4 you are getting 4 out of 6 balls correct, or 66%, to get 3+bonus you are getting 4 out of 7, or 57% correct, therefore making it statistically easier to get 3+bonus.

intellectual dosser

summerskin wrote: »

The bonus ball is effectively just another number and offers you an increased chance of a win.

to get match4 you are getting 4 out of 6 balls correct, or 66%, to get 3+bonus you are getting 4 out of 7, or 57% correct, therefore making it statistically easier to get 3+bonus.

But breaking it down to the bare bones, are they not simply just pulling 7 balls out of a drum - the probability is the same for all the numbers.

In this case it seems that one of your numbers being the bonus is a handicap and disadvantage, and not an actual 'bonus'.

28064212

intellectual dosser wrote: »

But breaking it down to the bare bones, are they not simply just pulling 7 balls out of a drum - the probability is the same for all the numbers.

In this case it seems that one of your numbers being the bonus is a handicap and disadvantage, and not an actual 'bonus'.

http://www.easysurf.cc/lotodd.htm
Odds of 4 numbers: 1 in 772
Odds of 3+bonus ball: 1 in 579

intellectual dosser

OK - Thanks for the clear up.

I'll go and mumble angrily about my poor sense of probability.

Pherekydes

snubbleste wrote: »

It's just an opt-in tax on the poor mathematically challenged.

FYP

mfceiling

Pretty easy OP...you waste a few quid every week picking random numbers.

They never get drawn out.

You scrumple up your ticket, fcuk it in the bin and state " that yoke is a fcukin fix...that's the last time I'm playing it "...

intellectual dosser

mfceiling wrote: »

Pretty easy OP...you waste a few quid every week picking random numbers.

They never get drawn out.

You scrumple up your ticket, fcuk it in the bin and state " that yoke is a fcukin fix...that's the last time I'm playing it "...

But Dolores is my idle...I have to feed the dreams.

9959

If you do win, please don't say "I'm not going to let this change my life"