November 2012 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT for November, the 1981-2010 average was 7.3 C (up from 7.0 in 1971-2000 and 6.6 in 1961-1990) -- figures thanks to Deep Easterly.

2. Predict the maximum temperature for November at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the minimum temperature for November at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the rainfall as percentage of normal values, as reported for eleven met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

5. Predict the sunshine as percentage of normal values, as reported for however many (seems to be holding at six) met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

6. Bonus question. Thanks to Waterways for suggestion, there's a fly fishing festival in Galway on the weekend of 10th-11th. Will go with nearby (I say so anyway) Athenry weather station for verification, what will be mid-day (1200h or 12z) temperature rounded off, each of the two days. Sample answer, which I know is too high but I don't want to plant a suggestion, 24, 22. Scores will be based on minimum aggregate error (no squares or multiples just the raw differences).

TEMPLATE ...

IMT .... MAX .... MIN .... PRC .... SUN .... T1,T2

]Normal deadlines apply -- end of Thursday 1st for on time entries, slight penalty on Friday 2nd, more severe penalty on Saturday 3rd, and effectively closed 0300h 4th.

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Also for your information, I am quite willing to continue on with forecast contest in 2013 but will open a thread later in November to discuss any changes desired including a new host, don't mind either way ... will be suggesting minor changes for late scoring, just percentages taken off for each day, that way, no such thing as too late but can't score any points by about 5th so nobody loses their place in contest but not even a faint hope of advantage for waiting. This is sort of what I have been doing in marginal cases anyway, our leading contestants have been helpful enough to post on time regularly so it has always applied to cases of pack-runners (of which I am one also).

Another change I will bring forward (a new host might not wish to take this on) is to keep track of seasonal leaders and to declare the contest annual period Dec 2012 to Nov 2013 to blend with that. This year will end as expected with Dec 2012, so it will do double duty. But we may have an informal special award if the race is tight for the 2013 annual winner. Seasons will of course be the three months normally used in weather forums.

Please wait for the discussion thread to open to comment on this, and reserve this thread for your November forecasts.

H2UMrsRobinson

Ok I'll kick it off.

6.9...15.2...-3.9...96%...76%...12,13

talkabout

7.0...14.8...-4.2...110%...90%...9,10

200motels

7.1....14.1...-3.6...123...80...8.1,9.2

cherryghost

7.1....13.9...-4.5....120....85....11,12

catch.23

6.5....14.2...-4.0....80....110....10,9

dexter647

6.4....15.2...-5.9....80....80....7,9

Wolfe_IRE

6.3, 14, -6.5, 100, 105, 10/11

Bsal

7.0 .... 13.9 .... -5.2 .... 107% .... 98% .... 8,8

NIALL D

6.9....14.8...-5.3....89....100....9,10

pauldry

6.5 .... 13.1 .... -5.5 .... 99% .... 94% .... 10.3,10.1

Strasser

7.2....13.5...-5.3....100....100....8 , 12

lostinashford

6.2....13.2....-3.9....94%....90%....9....7

Iancar29

6.5..15.0...-4.9...96%...85%...10,12

snowstreams

6.7....14.1...-4.3...105...103...10.1,8.6

delw

6.9......13.7.....-3.8......104......96......12.5/10.2

dacogawa

6.6 .... 15.2 .... -7.0 .... 130% .... 90% .... 8,12

Rikand

6.6 ........ 14.5 ........ -4.5 ......... 120 ......... 95 ......... 11.0/10.0

M.T. Cranium

Re bonus question, just to the nearest degree, I will round off your entries.

My entry ...

6.4 .... 15.5 .... -6.5 .... 105 .... 133 .... 11,11

homolumo

6.0 .... 14.5 .... -6.8 .... 111 .... 99 .... 10/11

octo

5.5.... 14.0.... -5.0..... 75%..... 115%..... 7, 7

SeaFields

7.0 .... 15 .... -5.5 .... 80 .... 100 .... 4.0,7.5

nilhg

7.0 .... 15.5 .... -5.5 ... 105 ..... 95 .......12,14

Hammer Archer

6.9 .... 15.1 .... -5.2 .... 89 .... 90.... 9, 11

kindredspirit

6.5 ... 14.9 ...-4.9 ... 110 ... 90 ... 9,9

John mac

6.2 .... 15.7 .... -4.5.... 95....103.... 8,11

nilhg:- to be sure, to be sure, to be sure .:D;)

Danno

5.7c .... 14.6c .... -6.2c .... 135% .... 110% .... 10c, 9c

Joe Public

6.9 .... 13.9 .... -4.9 .... 89 .... 109 .... 9, 9

dasa29

5.5c .... 12.5c .... -4.0c .... 105% .... 95% .... 7.5c, 8c

DOCARCH

6.9 .... 16.6 .... -4.2 .... 98 .... 105 .... 11,9

Harps

6.5 .... 15.4 .... -4.5 .... 115 .... 120 .... 8,7

jambofc

6.9 .... 14.9 .... -3.5 .... 110 .... 110 .... 8,8

okla

6.8....13.4....-3.2....95....110....7.4.9.5

NeVeR

7.0 ... 13.7 ... -3.1 ... 82% ... 105.. 10,9

I did cheat tho.. I've a time machine

jd

6.8....14.5...-5.8....92....108....9,8

mickger844posts

5.9 .... 13.1 .... -6.8 .... 85 .... 124 .... 11,12

Speak Now

5.8 .... 15.8 .... -4.5 .... 88 .... 115 .... 7,7

Lumi

6.5 .... 13.8 .... -5.0 .... 93 .... 100 .... 8,9

MiNdGaM3

6.5 .... 15.1 .... -4.9 .... 88 .... 100 .... 12.0,8.0

traecy1

6.6....15.5....-4.2....125....95....10.5, 11.6

waterways

6.3 .... 14.1 .... -7.5 .... 90 .... 90 .... 9,7

rameire

6.8 .... 13.0 .... -5.8 .... 80 .... 101 .... 9,9

Sponge Bob

6.1 ... 14.4 ... -4.8 ... 90 ... 107 ... 10,9

Redsunset

5.7....13.0....-7.5.....75.....145.....9.0..11.0

Tae laidir

7.0.... 14.3.... -3.9.... 110.... 105.... 8,8

M.T. Cranium

Thanks for those on-time entries. I will wait for a day or two to see if we get a few latecomers, then close off the contest on Saturday night. Welcome to anyone who is new to the contest. You're just in time to get in some practice because a new cycle begins soon, maybe in December for seasonal contests.

There will be a separate "third annual" winter forecast contest, I will post it when this one closes. Look for it around Sunday but no rush, the deadline will be end of November.

Any editing from now to deadline will change your entry time so calculate carefully if you're looking to score points.

M.T. Cranium

Table of entries for November forecast contest


Forecaster ................. IMT ... MAX ... MIN ... PRC ... SUN ... Max 10,11
______________________________________________________________


Strasser ................... 7.2 .... 13.5 ... -5.3 ... 100 ... 100 ...... 8,12
200motels ................. 7.1 .... 14.1 ... -3.6 ... 123 ... 080 ...... 8, 9
cherryghost .............. 7.1 .... 13.9 ... -4.5 ... 120 ... 085 .... 11,12
talkabout .................. 7.0 .... 14.8 ... -4.2 ... 110 ... 090 ...... 9,10
Bsal ......................... 7.0 .... 13.9 ... -5.2 ... 107 ... 098 ...... 8, 8
NeVeR ...................... 7.0 .... 13.7 ... -3.1 ... 082 ... 105 .... 10, 9
Tae laidir .................. 7.0 .... 14.3 ... -3.9 ... 110 ... 105 ...... 8, 8
SeaFields .................. 7.0 .... 15.0 ... -5.5 ... 080 ... 100 ...... 4, 8
nilhg ........................ 7.0 .... 15.5 ... -5.5 ... 105 ... 095 .... 12,14
Hammer Archer .......... 6.9 .... 15.1 ... -5.2 ... 089 ... 090 ...... 9,11
delw ........................ 6.9 .... 13.7 ... -3.8 ... 104 ... 096 .... 13,10
jambofc .................... 6.9 .... 14.9 ... -3.5 ... 110 ... 110 ...... 8, 8
NIALL D .................... 6.9 .... 14.8 ... -5.3 ... 089 ... 100 ...... 9,10
H2UMrsRobinson ......... 6.9 .... 15.2 ... -3.9 ... 096 ... 076 .... 12,13
Joe Public ................. 6.9 .... 13.9 ... -4.9 ... 089 ... 109 ...... 9, 9
DOCARCH .................. 6.9 .... 16.6 ... -4.2 ... 098 ... 105 .... 11, 9
rameire ..................... 6.8 .... 13.0 ... -5.8 ... 080 ... 101 ...... 9, 9
jd ............................ 6.8 .... 14.5 ... -5.8 ... 092 ... 108 ...... 9, 8
okla ......................... 6.8 .... 13.4 ... -3.2 ... 095 ... 110 ...... 7,10
snowstreams ............. 6.7 .... 14.1 ... -4.3 ... 105 ... 103 .... 10, 9
traecy1 .................... 6.6 .... 15.5 ... -4.2 ... 125 ... 095 .... 11,12
dacogawa ................. 6.6 .... 15.2 ... -7.0 ... 130 ... 090 ...... 8,12

Con Sensus .............. 6.6 .... 14.5 ... -4.9 ... 096 ... 100 ...... 9, 9

Rickylovesuall ............ 6.6 .... 14.5 ... -4.5 ... 120 ... 095 .... 11,10
Melanoma* ............... 6.6 .... 14.3 ... -4.6 ... 097 ... 100 .... 12,10
kindredspirit .............. 6.5 .... 14.9 ... -4.9 ... 110 ... 090 ...... 9, 9
Lumi ........................ 6.5 .... 13.8 ... -5.0 ... 093 ... 100 ...... 8, 9
MiNdGaM3 ................ 6.5 .... 15.1 ... -4.9 .... 088 ... 100 .... 12, 8
catch.23 .................. 6.5 .... 14.2 ... -4.0 ... 080 ... 110 .... 10, 9
pauldry .................... 6.5 .... 13.1 ... -5.5 ... 099 ... 094 .... 10,10
Harps ...................... 6.9 .... 16.6 ... -4.2 ... 098 ... 105 .... 11, 9
Iancar29 .................. 6.5 .... 15.0 ... -4.9 ... 096 ... 085 .... 10,12
M.T. Cranium ............ 6.4 .... 15.5 ... -6.5 ... 105 ... 133 .... 11,11
dexter647 ................. 6.4 .... 15.2 ... -5.9 ... 080 ... 080 ...... 7, 9
Wolfe_IRE ................. 6.3 .... 14.0 ... -6.5 ... 100 ... 105 .... 10,11
waterways ................ 6.3 .... 14.1 ... -7.5 ... 090 ... 090 ...... 9, 7
lostinashford ............. 6.2 .... 13.2 ... -3.9 ... 094 ... 090 ...... 9, 7
John mac ................. 6.2 .... 15.7 ... -4.5 ... 095 ... 103 ...... 8,11
Sponge Bob .............. 6.1 .... 14.4 ... -4.8 ... 090 ... 107 .... 10, 9
homolumo ................. 6.0 .... 14.5 ... -6.8 ... 111 ... 099 .... 10,11
mickger844posts ........ 5.9 .... 13.1 ... -6.8 ... 085 ... 124 .... 11,12
Jerry Seinfeld ............ 5.8 .... 15.8 ... -4.5 ... 088 ... 115 ...... 7, 7
Redsunset ................ 5.7 .... 13.0 ... -7.5 ... 075 ... 145 ...... 9,11
Danno ...................... 5.7 .... 14.6 ... -6.2 ... 135 ... 110 .... 10, 9
octo ........................ 5.5 .... 14.0 ... -5.0 ... 075 ... 115 ...... 7, 7
dasa29 ..................... 5.5 .... 12.5 ... -4.0 ... 105 ... 095 ...... 8, 8

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* late entry (added in later edit)

I believe that all regular contestants have now entered (on time too) but will leave it open for new entries until end of Saturday.

Welcome to our new entrants, and a note to newly entered recent "regulars" such as bsal and WolfeIRE -- although you can't qualify for the annual contest, I will post your averages after December just for comparison.

The consensus above will remain contest-worthy and further entries will not change it (because it is already based on regular entrants). Seems that the consensus is for a slightly colder and drier month than normal although the differences are very slight and there's a split into two camps evident probably based on how the second half of the month is perceived -- the bonus question data for some entries have been rounded as per the rules (see post 1) since verification is against a 12z temperature that has no decimal place.

Good luck, if you missed it, I have updated the scoring for the year over in the October thread. The race is quite tight near the top now, as we round the turn for home. Even Con Sensus has a chance to win (nooo).

catch.23

IMT value for November so far ( i.e. from 1 day) is 3.52.

:cool:

Melanoma

6.6 14.3 -4.6 96.8 100 11.8 9.5

M.T. Cranium

Moorepark recorded -3.3 C on Saturday morning.

Hope that a mod will sticky this thread soon.

Sponge Bob

Met E predicting top temps around 9-10c for sat and sun now. The monthly q will come down to the merest fractions of 1c