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Anchorman's Betting Bonanza!
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The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »I can tell ya it wasnt the easiest bet I've had to come up! The Nats, Tigers and Pirates all gave me moments of real concern! Can I ask why you pick the second inning for your unders bet? Is it not a better bet to go 1st inning?
I used to go 1st inning (see earlier logs) but the whole idea is to select under 0.5 runs in a game where we have 2 pitchers that are fancied on the mound facing each other.
Obviously we have to select one of the early innings to make sure that both starters are in the game.
Secondly, when you look at stats for 1st inning v 2nd inning scores in MLB, there is quite a drop off from 1st to 2nd inning in terms of runs scored, particularly in the NL.
In the first inning you are guaranteed to have the 1-2-3 batters on each team obviously. These will generally be the best guys in the team at getting on base (certainly the leadoff guy). Then if any get on board, a strong RBI player will be batting in the 4th ('cleanup') spot.
In the 2nd inning, you are far more likely to be facing the mid to bottom of the order batters, and this is especially important in the NL because of the pitcher's slot at 9th.
So the first inning will statistically give you more runs because by it's nature both teams will have top of the order guys trying to get on base and score early. I guess if my logic is in anyway sound you could realistically pick 2 pitchers you don't like and give up a lot of runs, and back the over in the 1st inning.
But for 2nd inning, any research I've done has found that there is a sharp drop off in runs scored, and it's the only inning where you're nearly guaranteed not to be facing the top of the order.
I've taken this snapshot of data below from baseball reference which shows 5 years of scoring in each inning by league. Obviously 9th inning is the least likely to have runs scored because there is often no need to play the bottom of the inning and the best closers will be pitching here. But after that the % of runs scored is lowest in the 2nd inning, particularly in the NL (I guess I should focus more here than AL this year).
I do have more detailed analysis at home of this from last year or the year before that I should dig out, I'm pretty sure there was an article in the SABR journal specifically on the subject. But the premise is simple, if I'm betting on low runs in an inning of a game based on pitchers, I'm doing it in the 2nd!
(also FYI I know you're familiar with the game and the batting order but wrote this as simply as possible for others reading this)
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Cool man thanks for the break down. The reason I asked though was because I imagined that with all the aces up on opening day the amount of runs in the 1st inning would be minimal, in fact I was thinking there would be alot of 1,2,3 outs and then you had probably more danger in the second inning with the 4,5,6 hitters.
On a seperate note, looks like Billy Hamilton is going to have problems getting on base and you look right on the numbers there. But then again I suppose he was facing wainwright and he'll only face an ace approximately 25% of the time so may have more joy against the rest of the rotations.
You've intrigued me now though to do a little bit more study into the unders in innings involving top of the rotation guys. Man I love baseball season!
:D 0 -
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The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »You've intrigued me now though to do a little bit more study into the unders in innings involving top of the rotation guys. Man I love baseball season!:D
Few resources off the top of my head that I like:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/
Huge amount of data in terms of history and advanced statistics, also allows you to convert to .csv. This section can give you information per inning
http://www.fangraphs.com/
Aggregates player projections from Steamer, Oliver and ZiPS as well as gives historical stats per player. Very useful site
http://sabr.org/research/resources
SABR is the king of baseball research, 'sabermetrics' is coined after them. They have a lot of old research newsletters scanned in, membership is pretty reasonable.
http://www.baseball-encyclopedia.com/
Lee Sinins runs this site which is essentially a way of purchasing his baseball database. He'll then send you a link to a daily update files with updated stats from the day before. Only useful if you're using dynamic models and want to update them during the season. If you email him with questions he'll let you know what's included0 -
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The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »Bank: 1052.68 -178 -111= 763.68
Pretty poor results on Tuesday, yesterday more unlucky that poor with 7 winners picked and two Extra inning losers. Man I love baseball season :-)
Today:
Bet1: Royals, Reds, Pirates, Blue Jays - €10 accy and €10 Trebs Lost 40(Kansas canceled so just did doubles and accy)
Bet2: Orioles, Nats, Mariners, Twins - 10 Accy and 10 Trebs Lost
Bet3: all of the above & Yankees, D'backs, Marlins - 1 accy and 1 tenfolds Lost
Yankee: Werth, Davis, Cano, Butler Anytime HR Lucky fifteen lost 7 (Kansas canceled so just did a patent)
Bank: 763.68-108 = 655.68
My own fault yesterday, my system said Rays and Red Sox but I didn't like the pitching there. Lesson learned , stick to the system!
Bet1: Nats, Reds, Dodgers, Royals - 20 Accy and 20 trebs
Bet2: Cubs, Cards, Rays, Indians - 10 Accy and 10 Trebs
Bet3: all of the above & Tigers, Mariners, & Red Sox 1 Accy and 1 ten folds0 -
Another bad day at the officeThe Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »655.68
My own fault yesterday, my system said Rays and Red Sox but I didn't like the pitching there. Lesson learned , stick to the system!
Bet1: Nats, Reds, Dodgers, Royals - 20 Accy and 20 trebs
Bet2: Cubs, Cards, Rays, Indians - 10 Accy and 10 Trebs
Bet3: all of the above & Tigers, Mariners, & Red Sox 1 Accy and 1 ten folds
Bank: 655.68 -161=494.68
Bet1: Reds, Nats, Marlins& Giants - 20 accy and trebs
Bet2: Cubs,Pirates,Red Sox & Rays -20 accy and trebs
Bet: all of the above & Indians, Rockies, Royals -1 accy and 1 tenfold0 -
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Bank:2061.68
Bet1: Cards, A's, Red Sox and Indians(void) - 20 Accy&20 trebs return 334.90
Bet2: Astros, Orioles, White Soc and Royals - 10 Accy and 10 Trebs loss
Bet3: All of the above €2.50 eightfold and sevenfolds loss
Bet 4: Unders - u7.5Royals, u7.5Cards, u8.5A's and u8.5Indians games - 10 Accy and 10 Trebs damn you last inning reds! Loss
Bank 2061.68-222.50+334.90= 2,174.08
Profit anyway for the first time in a week!
Bet1: Nats, Braves, Yankees, Giants - 20 Accy/Trebs
Bet2: BJays, Cards, Tigers, Mariners - 10 Accy/Trebs
Bet3: All of the above & Cubs, Brewers&Rockies 1 accy and 1 tenfold0 -
The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: ».
Bank:2061.68
Bet1: Cards, A's, Red Sox and Indians(void) - 20 Accy&20 trebs return 334.90
Bet2: Astros, Orioles, White Soc and Royals - 10 Accy and 10 Trebs loss
Bet3: All of the above €2.50 eightfold and sevenfolds loss
Bet 4: Unders - u7.5Royals, u7.5Cards, u8.5A's and u8.5Indians games - 10 Accy and 10 Trebs damn you last inning reds! Loss
Bank 2061.68-222.50+334.90= 2,174.08
Profit anyway for the first time in a week!
Bet1: Nats, Braves, Yankees, Giants - 20 Accy/Trebs
Bet2: BJays, Cards, Tigers, Mariners - 10 Accy/Trebs
Bet3: All of the above & Cubs, Brewers&Rockies 1 accy and 1 tenfold
This was probably my fault. Was copying your bets for the last fews but left last night off to keep the bankroll for the golf the weekend haha I won't put the crow on you anymore 0 -
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This was probably my fault. Was copying your bets for the last fews but left last night off to keep the bankroll for the golf the weekend haha I won't put the crow on you anymore
Nah its the first few weeks of the season, so its all down to me, I'm experimenting at the moment with a betting against pitchers and with certain hitters. Its complicated but I think it will come good in the coming weeks!
I love Baseball!:D 0 -
Bank 2061.68-222.50+334.90= 2,174.08
Profit anyway for the first time in a week!
Bet1: Nats, Braves, Yankees, Giants - 20 Accy/Trebs Loss
Bet2: BJays, Cards, Tigers, Mariners - 10 Accy/Trebs return 46.10
Bet3: All of the above & Cubs, Brewers&Rockies 1 accy and 1 tenfold loss
Bank:2174.08-161+46.10=2059.18
Bet1:Tigers, Indians, Cards, Rockies - 15 Accy and 15 trebs
Bet2: Nats, A's, Brewers, Giants - 15 Accy and 15 trebs
Bet3: all of the above & Yankees, BJays & Rays 1 accyand 1tenfolds0 -
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Bet1: Orioles, Reds, Marlins, Red Sox - 15 accy and 15 trebs
Bet2: W/Sox, Rangers, Mariners, Giants - 15 accy and 15 trebs
Bet3: UCubs/Cards, Tigers, Brewers, Nats - 10 Accy and 10 trebs
All of the above 1 accy and 1elevenfolds
Good luck all! 0 -
A winner there on bet 2 will update bank tomorrow bets tonightThe Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »Bet1: Orioles, Reds, Marlins, Red Sox - 15 accy and 15 trebs
Bet2: W/Sox, Rangers, Mariners, Giants - 15 accy and 15 trebs
Bet3: UCubs/Cards, Tigers, Brewers, Nats - 10 Accy and 10 trebs
All of the above 1 accy and 1elevenfolds
Good luck all!
Bet1 cards, Indians, Giants , Royals - 15 accy and teens
Bet2 Tigers, Dodgers, Brewers and Bats
Bet3 all if the above Rangers, O's and a's I accy and 1 10 folds0 -
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The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »Bet1: Reds, Nats, Royals and D backs - 20 accy and trebs Meh .. damn Nats and Dbacks!
Bet2: Giants, Rockies,A's Mariners - 10 accy an trebs - damn mariners! return 75.88
Bet3. All of the above & white Sox, Brewers , Twins - 2 of three win here
1974.58-162+75.88= 1888.46
Bet1: Reds, Marlins, Yankees(Pineda), Padres - 15 -accy and trebs
Bet2: Unders Draves/Phil, Indiands/Tigers, Cards/Brewe, Mariner/Ranger - 15 Trebs and accy
Bet3: All of the above & W/Sox, Giants and A's 1accy and 1 tenfold
Change of tack!:D:D:D0 -
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1974.58-162+75.88= 1888.46
Bet1: Reds, Marlins, Yankees(Pineda), Padres - 15 -accy and trebs - €71.54
Bet2: Unders Draves/Phil, Indiands/Tigers, Cards/Brewe, Mariner/Ranger - 15 Trebs and accy - return 727.41
Bet3: All of the above & W/Sox, Giants and A's 1accy and 1 tenfold W/sox and A's beaten in extras. Very close last night.
Change of tack!:D:D - Worked! :D
Bank:1888.46 -162+798.95= 2525.41
Really close to perfect last night. Nats come from behind foiled me hitting the two accy's, Wsox and A's losing in Extras .. so getting there. Season only really getting going :-)0
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