DONEGAL’S FAMOUS WEATHERMAN PREDICTS SNOW BEFORE CHRISTMAS!

homersimpson

Donegal’s famous amateur weatherman has predicted the county is set to shiver from a series of cold snaps this winter.



Postman Michael Gallagher has said he is “99% sure” the country will suffer heavy falls of snow – before Christmas.

Mr Gallagher, who makes his predictions by studying plants and animals, has written a best-selling book ‘Traditional Weather Signs”.

In his first prediction this year, the postman says the country will shiver in the coming weeks.

“I have never seen as many berries on the trees in the mountains and the birds are singing very loudly in recent days.

“I have never seen as clear a day as I saw this week and that is not a good omen.

“The abundance of berries is a sure sign that temperatures are going to plunge in the winter. We’re in for a cold one. And I’m 99% sure we’ll have plenty of snow,” he said.



Mr Gallagher famously forced bookmaker Paddy Power to pay out more than €70,000 when he correctly predicted a white Christmas three years ago.

However the forecaster from Glenfin says it is too early to say whether we are in for a white festive season.

“I don’t think it will be as tough as a couple of years ago but it will get cold very soon.

“I can’ say just yet if we will have a white Christmas but we’ll almost certainly have plenty of snow before Christmas.

http://www.donegaldaily.com/2012/10/23/donegals-famous-weatherman-predicts-snow-before-christmas/

Tactical

WONS :D:D

Larbre34

Spare me. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Chicken Run

he said the "S" word....... !!!!!!

kstand

Well he has been fairly bang on the money the last few years.

Tactical

Chicken Run wrote: »

he said the "S" word....... !!!!!!

...and the word plenty was used too

stargazer 68

Excellent! I love SNNNOOOOOWWWWW

NIMAN

So he's guessing we will have snow sometime in December?? Thats a brave prediction.

Does he also chat to the dead by any chance?

kstand

All we can do is wait and see. Live in London and was out with the little lad on Saturday, was in Battersea Park and noticed a lot of berries on the trees. On Sunday was walking to a park near where we live and there is this apple tree near the entrance, the apples were falling off the tree on to a car beneath, it was totally laden with apples. If I remember correctly about 2 years ago, as the leaves were dying on theb trees there was a kaleidoscope of colour in place like Kew Gardens about this time of the year with people were interpreting to mean a cold winter was on its way, so will keep an eye on that.

Dice75

Larbre34 wrote: »

Spare me. Even a clock is right twice a day.

Not if its digital & has am/pm beside the time.

I predict no snow, so one of us will be right anyway.

ninebeanrows

It's obvious that all this lad does is crawl the internet forums and takes the consensus seasonal forecast.

Wolfe_IRE

Weathercheck wrote: »

It's obvious that all this lad does is crawl the internet forums and takes the consensus seasonal forecast.

:pac::pac:

There is an argument for nature giving signs, that's if you are able to read the signs. His track record is better than most it must be said. Personally, i believe in technology but the questions must be asked, what did people use before technology to forecast?

delw

The abundance of berries is a sure sign that temperatures are going to plunge in the winter.

There was lots of berries around last year,if i remember correctly people on here saying alot more berries than usual & it must be so the animals can stock up for a cold winter etc......
Well we all know how last winter turned out

Deep Easterly

There is every chance that he might be proved right, because even in a average Irish winter, snow in December is not all that unusual.

castor 1

That lad has no shame - hasn't a clue after previous 'predictions' :rolleyes:.

He should stick to the day job !

Wolfe_IRE

Whether I agree with his forecasting techniques or not, people need to be clear about his recent track record.

Report in Irish Examiner from May 2012:
Michael Gallagher, Postman, Donegal

As one of Ireland’s best known amateur forecasters, Michael predicts: "Overall I wouldn’t be too happy with the summer. We’ve had a very good winter. March was very warm and there was very little rain over the winter.

"I believe thunder will dominate the summer and I would advise people to make the most of any good weather we get.

"The signs are not good for a warm sunny summer. There was very late growth this year. Flowers that should have been up by the start of April were only coming out at the end of the month. The frogspawn was very plentiful in the middle of flat land, which is a sign that they’re expecting water to come.

"If good weather is coming the frogspawn tends to be located near a stream but not on flat land. I hope I’m wrong."

Winter 2011, from Donegal Daily

Ireland’s most famous amateur weatherman has said there is ‘SNOW WAY’ Donegal is going to be plunged into artic-like conditions this winter.

Postman Michael Gallagher has successfully predicted snowfalls for the last number of years from his base in the hills of Donegal.

But Michael, from Glenfin, says he simply can’t understand why everyone is saying the country is going to be covered in snow and freezing conditions for months on end.

“I simply don’t know where these forecasts are coming form. I can see no signs of it.

“We might have a little snow but I don’t think it’s going to be as bad as the past couple of years.

“I can see us getting plenty of rain and frost but I can’t see the huge falls of snow and freezing temperatures which everyone seems to be predicting,” he said.

Michael, who famously forced bookmaker Paddy Power to pay out €70,000 in early bets after predicting a white Christmas two years ago, says there will be plenty of storms.

Only recently he was approached by a customer while doing his rounds who had found a frog behind a flowerpot.

“When we lifted the flowerpot the frog just wouldn’t move. I just knew that was a bad sign.

“A couple of days later we had those bad storms. The frog knew it was going to be bad and didn’t plan on moving anywhere,” said Michael.

Joe Public

Weathercheck wrote: »

It's obvious that all this lad does is crawl the internet forums and takes the consensus seasonal forecast.

He backs up his predictions by referring to the signs of nature, whether he gets it right or wrong is another matter.
Who's to say if his methods are flawed without proof.
Do we know someone with a better success rate for long range forecasting?

Speak Now

I'd like to hear what the frog thinks.....

Sponge Bob

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

I'd like to hear what the frog thinks.....

Vogan hasn't delivered a winter forecast for Donegal yet ...has he????

Not

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

I'd like to hear what the frog thinks.....

The frogs area of expertise is storms, not snow

Sparks

The abundance of berries is a sure sign that temperatures are going to plunge in the winter.

Doesn't that imply that plants can somehow tell the future?
I would have thought that berries on a plant meant that you had a good summer, a good gardener, or that you'd killed the gardener and buried his body under the bushes.

Only one of those things can be used to predict the future, and the one that can doesn't give much data on future weather (just future court attendances )

Calibos

You're an enigma Wolfe Yourself and several others have fits when anyone mentions Vogan and yet you defend the postman. Both make money from their predictions. Why the Love for the Postman and the Hate for Vogan?

super_furry

He's wheeled out all the time, but what's this lad's record like?

GastroBoy

Larbre34 wrote: »

Spare me. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

And wrong 86398 times a day..........

Wolfe_IRE

Calibos wrote: »

You're an enigma Wolfe Yourself and several others have fits when anyone mentions Vogan and yet you defend the postman. Both make money from their predictions. Why the Love for the Postman and the Hate for Vogan?

Think you are confusing me with someone else, Cal.

At no stage have I ever made a disparaging remark about Mark Vogan. I am aware that a lot of people have negative opinions of him though. I do not have any opinion as his forecasts are subscription-based so i cannot read/analyze/criticize them.

I was simply giving credit where credit was due to Michael Gallagher and responding to people saying 'he was wrong'. People said he got last winter wrong and this summer wrong. He got both right and went against the general consensus on both occasions. I will point out (again) that despite his success rate I would invest more of my faith in technology to obtain forecasts. That does not mean I am right. God knows, I am wrong most of the time :rolleyes:

As for people making money, that is their own personal business.

leahyl

Godge

I posted this already on the other thread:

Reading the article, the sentence that struck me the most was:

"I don't think it will be as tough as a couple of years ago...."

So while he is predicting a cold winter with snow, given what people have become used to in terms of snow and coldness, that sentence may come as disappointment/relief depending on your point of view (oh and also depending on whether you give his forecast any credence).

A headline saying "Postman doesn't think winter will be as tough as recent ones" doesn't have the same oomph but is probably closer to what he is saying.


After reading this thread, it still seems to me that while he is predicting a better chance of snow this winter than last winter, it will not be in the category of the heavy falls of recent winters, so not a lot to get excited about either for snow lovers or snow haters who worry about the negative effects. Maybe I am missing something.

kstand

You could interpret it a lot of ways godge. Last winter he said he didnt see any signs of this cold that so many were forecasting and he was right - but this time round he's saying there will be significant cold there with snow which he ruled out a year ago.
So all we can do is wait and see I suppose.

Calibos

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

Think you are confusing me with someone else, Cal.

At no stage have I ever made a disparaging remark about Mark Vogan. I am aware that a lot of people have negative opinions of him though. I do not have any opinion as his forecasts are subscription-based so i cannot read/analyze/criticize them.

I was simply giving credit where credit was due to Michael Gallagher and responding to people saying 'he was wrong'. People said he got last winter wrong and this summer wrong. He got both right and went against the general consensus on both occasions. I will point out (again) that despite his success rate I would invest more of my faith in technology to obtain forecasts. That does not mean I am right. God knows, I am wrong most of the time :rolleyes:

As for people making money, that is their own personal business.

Oops Case of mistaken identity.

Nabber

Everyone will love the post man now after this prediction. Except Kerry and Cork. They'll be only counties that will see no snow this year.

Joe Public

Sparks wrote: »

Doesn't that imply that plants can somehow tell the future?
I would have thought that berries on a plant meant that you had a good summer, a good gardener, or that you'd killed the gardener and buried his body under the bushes.

Only one of those things can be used to predict the future, and the one that can doesn't give much data on future weather (just future court attendances )

Plenty of berries and fruit usually means it was a favourable Spring. Towards the end of a good year the birds are spoiled for choice and tend not to eat all the berries.

goat2

he is right about the birds, i was sitting outside today, and i enjoyed the sound of the birds, they are really noisy these few days, it was a pleasure,
i also have blackcurrants in garden, the bush was laden with them,
and the hedgehogs were on a feeding frenzy a few weeks back.

Chicken Run

Nabber wrote: »

Everyone will love the post man now after this prediction. Except Kerry and Cork. They'll be only counties that will see no snow this year.

and Clare

when everyone else had snow in 2010, Clare had nowt. Bit of frost.
Proper snow shield here

whatever *shrugs*

Su Campu

goat2 wrote: »

he is right about the birds, i was sitting outside today, and i enjoyed the sound of the birds, they are really noisy these few days, it was a pleasure,
i also have blackcurrants in garden, the bush was laden with them,
and the hedgehogs were on a feeding frenzy a few weeks back.

The birds are probably noisier these days as they're all staying put due to the fog. I know the feeling, had to cancel my flight to Wales tomorrow due to this muck along the east coast.

Anyway, I think maybe I was the vocal one on Vogan. The difference between the two is that somehow the postie has a pretty good success rate over the past couple of years whereas yer man Vogan waffles on about this idea and that, always hoping for, and promising, the Big One. The fact he's charging this year means he's either lost the truck driving gig or he sees the huge market potential in feeding gullible winterites the waffle they want to hear.

Chicken Run

Not wrote: »

The frogs area of expertise is storms, not snow

Spiders know when there's a storm approaching - they start frantically adding extra tie-lines to their webs.

I spend too much time looking out of the window at the cobwebs - but have definitely noticed a pattern (...and the fact that I really should clean my windows more often)

Pherekydes

Larbre34 wrote: »

Spare me. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Give him his due, he won 70k off PP.

And it's in the berries, don't you know?

mayfly757

Why cancel you fly Su

Su Campu

mayfly757 wrote: »

Why cancel you fly Su

I can only fly VFR so must stay clear of cloud. Kind of hard when it's only around 200 ft high!!! :mad:

mayfly757

need to get that instrument rating ! Good luck

Sponge Bob

Donegal Postmans delivery route is on the plateau that is central Donegal. IE his daily observations are made at 100m ASL and higher and a distance from the coast in the vicinity of the Blue Stacks. Lets say roughly here. > http://goo.gl/maps/WXDBw

Even Google couldn't get a satellite over that area without snow on the ground as you can clearly see here > http://goo.gl/maps/kXTGA

So if it does not snow at all between now and Christmas in Glencolumbkille ...which is here > http://goo.gl/maps/tXmpu he may still be proven 100% correct.

pauldry

Am I missing something or does the start of November not look very cold with the possibility of snow.

Probably not but theres lots of blues in the charts.

Think the next couple of weeks will be chilly and wintry.

Deep Easterly

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

I was simply giving credit where credit was due.

Agree. One thing though, why did he feel the need to say that modern day forecasting techniques were 'inadequate'? Modern day forecasting is detailed, updated regularly and can actually save peoples lives. I know if I was a fisherman in Donegal, I'd want a regular detail forecast to see if it was safe to go out on the boat or not. I may be wrong, but I don't think the Postman provides such a service. Long ranging is all good and well, but essential short range forecasts are vital as well.

gbee

Sparks wrote: »

Doesn't that imply that plants can somehow tell the future? )

Pretty much. The berries are a well known sign as is an early short spring.

Studies on plants in the 60s suggested that they could have a level of cognisance, when connected to monitoring equipment, grasses set off needles as operators thought of cutting the plants.

Gardeners world wide and for centuries often spoke to their plants and some played music ~ many just thought this behaviour eccentric ~ maybe it was, maybe it wasn't

V1

Su Campu wrote: »

I can only fly VFR so must stay clear of cloud. Kind of hard when it's only around 200 ft high!!! :mad:

but sure its over water... 200ft should be plenty to stay clear of cloud!:D:D:D .... what could possibly go wrong

seriously though Su, (and at the risk of going off topic), As you seem to be watching cloud cover specifically, and are a whole lot more well informed on this stuff than myself, do you see any opportunity for clear skies (or at least 3500 ft) in the south in the next few days. I doesn't look likely to me, but then I regularly kick myself when I miss a window.

Thanks

Su Campu

V1 wrote: »

but sure its over water... 200ft should be plenty to stay clear of cloud!:D:D:D .... what could possibly go wrong

seriously though Su, (and at the risk of going off topic), As you seem to be watching cloud cover specifically, and are a whole lot more well informed on this stuff than myself, do you see any opportunity for clear skies (or at least 3500 ft) in the south in the next few days. I doesn't look likely to me, but then I regularly kick myself when I miss a window.

Thanks

Later tomorrow and Friday should be a much clearer as we get a change in airmass. I've rescheduled for tomorow so it better be!

V1

Thanks

Cul a cnoic

Must say that the postman was close with his predictions in the past.

But you should have a look at Donegal Dollop, they have ran a great story earlier, worth reading. Here it is. Enjoy

M.T. Cranium

Fair play to the Donegal postman as far as I'm concerned, his outlooks for the past summer and winter were better than most. The story about Paddy Power could be partly conflated as there was also a big discussion going on here on this forum about bets that one might make in Dec 2010. Some of us made a bit off that temperature spread they offered by going low.

Also, I don't have any criticism to offer for his methodology as stated, in fact if one could gather all the required evidence and make that method scientific even without knowing the cause and effect, it would be very useful and I say that for the same reason that a knowledge of the effects of gravity long before Isaac Newton was born would no doubt have saved the lives of many who might otherwise think of testing out a theory of the human being trying to fly like a bird (something you would not do if you recognized the existence of a relationship between height above ground and immediate consequences, regardless of whether you knew the physics or not).

Natural signs might be expected to work for several unconnected reasons. One is that there are embedded cycles at play, meaning that one cycle followed by another would imply a sequence of observable signs like more berries then a cold winter. Another reason might be inherent instinctual or if you prefer God-given recognitions by living creatures of patterns through some kind of signal that could be related to geomagnetism (since migration of birds is known to be related to that). There's a class of scientists who would scoff at such postulates but I don't see any reason to do so, and I would be first to admit that I don't know much about the reasons why natural signs might be reliable indicators of future weather patterns.

My own approach is perhaps similar in one way, that I believe we can eventually decode these complex patterns by finding all of (or enough of) the various signals that are embedded in the apparent chaos of weather data and then use these signals to construct a scientific theory of how the atmosphere will respond to them in the near future (by near future I mean up to a year, or even several years, thinking that the signals might be hitting a slowly shifting global grid created by factors such as a shifting magnetic field and therefore the extension of signals might fade out if you go too long into that future -- this is also a good reason to be cautious about how to use distant past analogues, perhaps those signals will now be displaced away from where they were recorded).

Where I would want to see a bit more reasoning about the natural signs approach is on timing. For example, let's say I buy into the concept that natural signs say that nature is preparing for a harsh winter. If I were an animal or plant, the timing of that harsh winter would not matter so much as whether or not it happened at all, in other words, I would be preparing for the onset of a period of harsh weather, not necessarily for the exact time it would show up. So what was there about this year's natural signs that might isolate December as a time for colder or snowier weather, or was it just that the reporter asked about Christmas weather and forced the answer into this timing paradigm. The reason I say that is my belief that February might be quite cold this winter and I'm not that confident of snow coming in December from the trends I am seeing, although there could be some. It would not be that big a deal if one snowfall came and went over the northwest in December but it sounds like a bit more than that is expected. FWIW my own research suggests a stormy episode just around Christmas with rain the more likely precip and the possibility of strong winds then. My best estimate for snowfall timing (besides perhaps once in mid-December) would be end of January into first half of February.

But I'm keen to learn whatever there is to learn about natural signs and we do have them in our own context on this side of the Atlantic -- in eastern North America, people swear by the "woolly worm caterpillar" which makes an appearance in the late summer or autumn, the more of those that are seen crawling about or perhaps the larger they are, the colder the winter is supposed to be. We also have the folklore about berries, I believe, but you have to factor in that in Canada, our population in the 19th century especially in rural areas was largely derived from Scotland and Ireland so that our folklore may have been transplanted rather than developed here by observation. I wonder if those who came with the folklore thought that it worked as well in the new world, after adjusting it because any given winter, even the milder ones, in Ontario would seem harsh to a newcomer even from the north or outer Hebrides.

I think this is one area where we may have forgotten more than we have learned over a long period of time and certainly there's no valid reason to be skeptical of natural signs, it's probably a case of needing a lot more study with better data.

planetX

the amount of berries on a tree is related to the amount of flowers produced in spring, the availability of pollinators, the weather conditions over the summer and autumn, and how quickly animals are eating the berries in autumn. It tells you about the past weather, not the future. The only way I believe there could be any 'signs' about the future is if there is some unrecognised pattern of cold winters following mild springs etc.

clanpiper

Weathercheck wrote: »

It's obvious that all this lad does is crawl the internet forums and takes the consensus seasonal forecast.

Maybe you should concentrate on moderating the forum rather than commenting in it.
Thats a pathetic post.
You say "Its obvious..." Can you prove this statement, are you prepared to back it up with links?

As moderator would you have knowledge of weather forecasting? If so, what is your prediction and on what is it based?
I would expect a troll to come on and post that type of comment. Anyone else would post their objection and their reasons as to why they object based on FACTS.

Lastly, I think the term you are looking for is "TRAWL the internet forums"

Su Campu

clanpiper wrote: »

Maybe you should concentrate on moderating the forum rather than commenting in it.
Thats a pathetic post.
You say "Its obvious..." Can you prove this statement, are you prepared to back it up with links?

As moderator would you have knowledge of weather forecasting? If so, what is your prediction and on what is it based?
I would expect a troll to come on and post that type of comment. Anyone else would post their objection and their reasons as to why they object based on FACTS.

Lastly, I think the term you are looking for is "TRAWL the internet forums"

Cheeerio