HEC: Llanelli Scarlets V Leinster, Parc y Scarlets Sat 20th Oct 13:35 Sky Sports 1

molloyjh · 19-10-2012 12:54pm #1

Round 2!

After a nerve wracking opening to the defense of their Heineken Cup title, holders Leinster are away to Llanelli Scarlets on Saturday in what is undoubtedly their most important game of the season so far. Last week saw Leinster squeeze by a well drilled and tough Exeter side, but it was a game that they could well have lost. Joe Schmidts side may be boosted by the return of Gordon D'Arcy and the fact that all of the players were available for the full weeks training, however this game will prove to be a serious challenge for a side looking to make it three in a row. If they are to be in with a chance of reclaiming the title this is a game that they simply must win.

And as has happened numerous times before Joe Schmidt has picked a side that no one had predicted. Many would have assumed that the return of D'Arcy to the 12 jersey would have meant Isa Nacewa would have been moved to his favoured position of full-back, with Conway and McFadden on the wings and Madigan reverting to the bench. Instead Madigan remains at 15 and Nacewa at 11 while Andrew Conway is moved to the bench. It's a big call as both Conway and McFadden had been playing well in what many feel were their natural positions.

Elsewhere Richardt Strauss, who had been returning to the form he had been in during the 10/11 season, is also dropped to the bench in favour of Sean Cronin. While there can be no doubt Cronin is very good in the loose and has pace to burn I can't help but wonder is he better used as an impact sub later in the game? Especially in a game where we should be targetting their breakdown. Is there a better hooker for that job than Strauss? On the replacements bench Isaac Boss is again named, but after getting some game time in the A game last week we can expect to see him come on for Eoin Reddan at some stage in the game. One thing is for certain though, the Leinster bench is looking stronger by the week.

The Scarlets side sees only 2 changes to the one that took on Clermont in Stade Marcel Michelin last week. Jonathan Davies has suffered a groin injury and Morgan Stoddart has been dropped to the bench being replaced by Gareth Maule and Andy Fenby respectively. They will be looking to make up for the large defeat they suffered at the hands of the French side and with the back line they have they are certainly capable of making that happen.

Leinster will need to target the Scarlets set-peice and breakdown to try and prevent their backs getting into the game as much as possible. They will also need to make sure they give Priestland a bit of attention early on as he is somewhat of a weak link in that Scarlets side. Expect to see Heaslip and Jennings in particular putting him in their sights.

Any mention of the season opener in the same venue where Leinster were well beaten would be irrelevant. This is a totally different Leinster side and one would hope that with that little bit of extra time together over the last week they will be able to step up the performance. If the Leinster forwards can get on top from the start and slow down the Scarlets ball they should be able to win this one, but fail to stop them there and it's anyones game.

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leftleg · 19-10-2012 1:00pm

The firewall in work blocked the scarlets pic on the team sheets but lets the Leinster one through. Surely thats an omen of good things to come!

molloyjh · 19-10-2012 1:02pm

leftleg wrote: »

The firewall in work blocked the scarlets pic on the team sheets but lets the Leinster one through. Surely thats an omen of good things to come!

How's that one?

irishbucsfan · 19-10-2012 1:05pm

Fancy table!

Getting the train across to this tomorrow. Can't wait for it.

molloyjh · 19-10-2012 1:07pm

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Fancy table!

Getting the train across to this tomorrow. Can't wait for it.

Wish I was going myself. It's actually a great group from that point of view. They are all good away trips.

thomond2006 · 19-10-2012 1:07pm

2 Saffers in the second row for Scarlets, let's see if they can improve Scarlets' physicality.

Leinster by 7-10 IMO.

.ak · 19-10-2012 1:26pm

Love the table...

For me, I think we should take a leaf from Exeter's book. We need to starve Scarlet's ball for the first 3 quarters of the game, and hope things open up. Leinster backrows/second rows were always renowned for the 'dark arts' of slowing ball and whatnot, lets hope they utilize some of that tomorrow especially Cullen, Jennings and Heaslip.

leftleg · 19-10-2012 1:31pm

molloyjh wrote: »

How's that one?

Much better if you're a Scarlets fan

totallegend · 19-10-2012 2:10pm

Big afternoon needed from the backrow tomorrow. It's all well and good going 'hunting' for Priestland but he has very quick hands so if anybody shoots out out of the defensive line too early, the ball will be gone and we'll be on the back foot. Likewise, the backrow need to keep an eagle-eye on Knoyle, he has a great eye for a gap and good pace for a scrum-half.

I think Leinster have enough to win this. We have the edge up front and if we can keep it tight defensively, we can grind out a win. Don't see a bonus point as a likely outcome but a win is achievable.

Unfortunately Clermont are sending the big guns to Exeter so an upset there is less likely.

Fishooks12 · 19-10-2012 2:40pm

Can't for the life off me understand the exclusion of Strauss

Teferi · 19-10-2012 2:46pm

Fishooks12 wrote: »

Can't for the life off me understand the exclusion of Strauss

Yeah, it's not like he is a better impact sub then Cronin. I'd rather have Strauss on the field for 60 minutes on the form he is in and have Cronin raring to go for the last 20.

molloyjh · 19-10-2012 2:47pm

Teferi wrote: »

Yeah, it's not like he is a better impact sub then Cronin. I'd rather have Strauss on the field for 60 minutes on the form he is in and have Cronin raring to go for the last 20.

I wonder if he is being rested with a view to playing a part in the AIs?

Cpt_Blackbeard · 19-10-2012 2:50pm

Worrying that Schmidt/Gibbs don't appear to rate Toner as a starting option; he needs to be breaking into the starting XV this season. I think that Cronin is being given a run out because the Scarlets are very callow up front, as Stauss has been in great form outside of the lineout. Leinster should be able to put a decent score on the Scarlets here and will be looking to bully them up front. Keeping McFadden away from North is a wise choice.

Teferi · 19-10-2012 2:52pm

That's definitely a possibility or perhaps he is carrying a knock that wouldn't hold up to 60 minutes of rugby.

ssaye · 19-10-2012 2:53pm

Cpt_Blackbeard wrote: »

Worrying that Schmidt/Gibbs don't appear to rate Toner as a starting option; he needs to be breaking into the starting XV this season. I think that Cronin is being given a run out because the Scarlets are very callow up front, as Stauss has been in great form outside of the lineout. Leinster should be able to put a decent score on the Scarlets here and will be looking to bully them up front. Keeping McFadden away from North is a wise choice.

Away in the HEC with the last two European players of the year missing, thats a tall order in most peoples opinion. Any win is enough at this stage until back to full compliment.

irishbucsfan · 19-10-2012 2:54pm

Cpt_Blackbeard wrote: »

Worrying that Schmidt/Gibbs don't appear to rate Toner as a starting option; he needs to be breaking into the starting XV this season. I think that Cronin is being given a run out because the Scarlets are very callow up front, as Stauss has been in great form outside of the lineout. Leinster should be able to put a decent score on the Scarlets here and will be looking to bully them up front. Keeping McFadden away from North is a wise choice.

It's not worrying at all. He's behind the captain. He showed how good he is last season, but no matter how much better than Cullen he is, the amount of intangibles that Cullen brings to the side is irreplaceable.

ssaye · 19-10-2012 2:55pm

Teferi wrote: »

That's definitely a possibility or perhaps he is carrying a knock that wouldn't hold up to 60 minutes of rugby.

He got stitches but I thought he would be starting. Joe always surprises.

Fishooks12 · 19-10-2012 2:55pm

Tbh if Leinster click they are more than capable of putting a big score on a pretty average scarlets side. If they don't though it could be a very tricky dogfight

ssaye · 19-10-2012 2:58pm

Fishooks12 wrote: »

Tbh if Leinster click they are more than capable of putting a big score on a pretty average scarlets side. If they don't though it could be a very tricky dogfight

I dont think they are average, a decent hooker, backrow, 10 and world class wing.

desertcircus · 19-10-2012 3:01pm

Cpt_Blackbeard wrote: »

Worrying that Schmidt/Gibbs don't appear to rate Toner as a starting option; he needs to be breaking into the starting XV this season. I think that Cronin is being given a run out because the Scarlets are very callow up front, as Stauss has been in great form outside of the lineout. Leinster should be able to put a decent score on the Scarlets here and will be looking to bully them up front. Keeping McFadden away from North is a wise choice.

Donnacha Ryan only got a single HC start two years ago and he's doing alright now. Toner has a decent number of HC caps and doesn't need to hurry.

Fishooks12 · 19-10-2012 3:03pm

ssaye wrote: »

I dont think they are average, a decent hooker, backrow, 10 and world class wing.

Priestland is a pretty average ten in my mind, and he's one of their better players.

On paper there's only one winner, Leinster should be a class apart

Cpt_Blackbeard · 19-10-2012 3:05pm

ssaye wrote: »

Away in the HEC with the last two European players of the year missing, thats a tall order in most peoples opinion. Any win is enough at this stage until back to full compliment.

Only 3 Leinster starters aren't available for selection and the Scarlets are by no means a good side; this Leinster side should comfortably be able to get the win without hitting their stride.

I said as much last week though

jamiedav2011 · 19-10-2012 3:07pm

Cpt_Blackbeard wrote: »

Only 3 Leinster starters aren't available for selection and the Scarlets are by no means a good side; this Leinster side should comfortably be able to get the win without hitting their stride.

I said as much last week though

Come on Captain, enough of the phony war.

Hype710 · 19-10-2012 3:08pm

irishbucsfan wrote: »

It's not worrying at all. He's behind the captain. He showed how good he is last season, but no matter how much better than Cullen he is, the amount of intangibles that Cullen brings to the side is irreplaceable.

It's worrying in the sense Toner might leave if he gets frustrated at not being selected for these big games.

totallegend · 19-10-2012 3:09pm

Cpt_Blackbeard wrote: »

Only 3 Leinster starters aren't available for selection and the Scarlets are by no means a good side; this Leinster side should comfortably be able to get the win without hitting their stride.

Ah but it's quality not quantity that counts, no? Leinster have a decent XV for tomorrow but players of the quality of Kearney, O'Brien and Fitzgerald would be missed by any team.

And when was it decided that the Scarlets were not a good side?

Fishooks12 · 19-10-2012 3:12pm

totallegend wrote: »

Ah but it's quality not quantity that counts, no? Leinster have a decent XV for tomorrow but players of the quality of Kearney, O'Brien and Fitzgerald would be missed by any team.

And when was it decided that the Scarlets were not a good side?

In relation to Leinster they're not

Solid enough to worry the big teams on their day. But anything other than a Leinster win tomorrow would be disastrous

Now obviously the word "good" is pretty subjective but I wouldn't consider Scarlets good considering some of the other teams in the competition

leftleg · 19-10-2012 3:13pm

Hype710 wrote: »

It's worrying in the sense Toner might leave if he gets frustrated at not being selected for these big games.

yep and Munster wouldn't bother with Toner because quite clearly any player that cant get his game against a team as crap as the Scarlets isnt worth buying!!

Teferi · 19-10-2012 3:15pm

Have a feeling this is going to be much the same as last weeks match.

Fishooks12 · 19-10-2012 3:15pm

leftleg wrote: »

yep and Munster wouldn't bother with Toner because quite clearly any player that cant get his game against a team as crap as the Scarlets isnt worth buying!!

huh? Who said anything about Toner and Munster?

Cpt_Blackbeard · 19-10-2012 3:22pm

desertcircus wrote: »

Donnacha Ryan only got a single HC start two years ago and he's doing alright now. Toner has a decent number of HC caps and doesn't need to hurry.

Ryan was behind 3 internationals - two of whom formed the 2nd best international locking partnership around - and was never able to get a run without getting injured.

Toner has nothing like that ahead of him, but he is a good HEC player. It's worrying that the best coaches in the NH aren't trusting him as a mainstay of the starting pack; they even went so far as to bring in Thorn when it looked like he was going to be a starter coming to the tail end of the season.

Hype710 wrote: »

It's worrying in the sense Toner might leave if he gets frustrated at not being selected for these big games.

I'd be more worried that the Leinster coaches are seeing something that none of us are. I don't think you'd have many here who wouldn't have Toner as Leinster's best lock.

totallegend wrote: »

Ah but it's quality not quantity that counts, no? Leinster have a decent XV for tomorrow but players of the quality of Kearney, O'Brien and Fitzgerald would be missed by any team.

And when was it decided that the Scarlets were not a good side?

The three missing lads would probably walk into most international sides, never mind any club sides, but Leinster easily have the strength in depth to cover for them. The Scarlets are a top-half PRO12 side, in the HEC thats nothing impressive.

.ak · 19-10-2012 3:22pm

jamiedav2011 wrote: »

Come on Captain, enough of the phony war.

Enough of the goading. Everyone's entitled to their opinion.

justsomebloke · 19-10-2012 3:27pm

Teferi wrote: »

Have a feeling this is going to be much the same as last weeks match.

ye pretty much. Can't see this being a great game of rugby. Hopefully Leinster can do it but I still think as a unit we aren't up to where we should be due internationals and injury.

jamiedav2011 · 19-10-2012 3:32pm

.ak wrote: »

Enough of the goading. Everyone's entitled to their opinion.

Sorry I don't see that as goading at all, what do you mean by enough also? That's my first post on the matter?!

irishbucsfan · 19-10-2012 3:34pm

Toner won't go anywhere. He knows Cullen won't last much longer. I'm happy with our locks as is, so long as Denton and Roux are developing.

totallegend · 19-10-2012 3:34pm

Cpt_Blackbeard wrote: »

The three missing lads would probably walk into most international sides, never mind any club sides, but Leinster easily have the strength in depth to cover for them. The Scarlets are a top-half PRO12 side, in the HEC thats nothing impressive.

While I admire your persistence in talking up Leinster:
- Llanelli gave Clermont a good rattle in France last week (until they went down to 14)
- They're at home
- They have a top-quality backline
- Leinster have been inconsistent at best and downright sh*te at worst

Paddy Power is calling the handicap at 4 points; that sounds about right to me.

Teferi · 19-10-2012 3:45pm

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Toner won't go anywhere. He knows Cullen won't last much longer.

I've found myself questioning whether it would have been a better call to give the captaincy to Heaslip this season.

molloyjh · 19-10-2012 3:48pm

Teferi wrote: »

I've found myself questioning whether it would have been a better call to give the captaincy to Heaslip this season.

It needs to be someone who'll be there all season.

Cpt_Blackbeard · 19-10-2012 3:55pm

molloyjh wrote: »

It needs to be someone who'll be there all season.

As long as you've the likes of Jennings and/or Cullen to come in and steady the ship during international windows, it wouldn't really cause any problems.

leftleg · 19-10-2012 3:58pm

Cpt_Blackbeard wrote: »

The three missing lads would probably walk into most international sides, never mind any club sides, but Leinster easily have the strength in depth to cover for them. The Scarlets are a top-half PRO12 side, in the HEC thats nothing impressive.

What about Racing or Exeter so capt?? are they in anyway impressive??

Fireball07 · 19-10-2012 3:59pm

I just think that Leinster's pack will have too much for Llanelli, I'd expect them to have scrum and lineout dominance, and will have the better of the breakdown. The Llanelli pack are fairly average...couple of decent players but nothing special. Leinster have an excellent pack, missing only SOB, they can even afford to leave someone like Strauss on the bench!

Obviously Llanelli have decent outside backs but the loss of Davies will hurt them a lot. If Leinster can contain North, they'll be halfway there. And Sexton is in a different class to Priestland..... it's not like Leinster don't have class backs too- BOD and Nacewa would walk into that Llanelli side.

Obviously Leinster need to start hitting form soon, but as I said before, this is a completely different challenge to the Exeter one who targeted Leinster up front. Llanelli won't be able to do that and once the supply to their backs is limited, they look like a lesser force.

Tox56 · 19-10-2012 4:12pm

Any team that can put it up to Clermont away from home in the H cup is going to be a decent side at the very least. I don't think they would have won anyway if they didn't get the red card, but that killed the game as a contest.

Teferi · 19-10-2012 4:16pm

molloyjh wrote: »

It needs to be someone who'll be there all season.

Meh, Heaslip will probably get it once Cullen is done with the non-international older heads there to steady the ship during the AI's/6N.

Podge_irl · 19-10-2012 4:18pm

I think it was a mistake to give Cullen the captaincy this season. I think Toner is currently the better lock, but is never going to get ahead of Cullen while he is the captain. A Toner/Cullen partnership simply doesn't work so Toner is forced to ride pine. I'd be annoyed if I was him, but he is likely to be the starter next season.

irishbucsfan · 19-10-2012 4:19pm

Teferi wrote: »

Meh, Heaslip will probably get it once Cullen is done with the non-international older heads there to steady the ship during the AI's/6N.

Naming Heaslip captain this year with Cullen still around just isn't a realistic option. Maybe for next season if Cullen retires.

Podge_irl · 19-10-2012 4:21pm

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Naming Heaslip captain this year with Cullen still around just isn't a realistic option.

I don't see why.

Higher · 19-10-2012 4:27pm

Cpt_Blackbeard wrote: »

Ryan was behind 3 internationals - two of whom formed the 2nd best international locking partnership around - and was never able to get a run without getting injured.

(1)Devin Toner is 2 years younger than Ryan
(2)Devin Toner has 3 Heineken Cup medals
(3)Devin Toner has been behind the club captain and then players like Hines and Brad Thorn who are considerably better than O'Callaghan (maybe POC too). Before that he was fresh out of the academy and competing with Malcom O'Kelly.
(4)Devin Toner was excellent against NZ when he came on. He was also MOTM in his international debut.
(5)Ryan only got his breakthrough when he had an extended run due to injury, Toner hasn't never got the opportunity.

I'm not exactly worried about Toner. at 26 and has at least 8 years of pro-rugby left in him at second row. Considering Ryan didn't even have a HC start at this point, I think its a bit early to be making comments like Schmidt and senior management don't trust Toner. This is definitely his breakthrough season without someone like MOK, Hines and Thorn here but I actually think Browne has been fantastic so far this season, on current form hes been playing better than O'Callaghan AND Ryan.

ray jay · 19-10-2012 4:54pm

I agree with those saying Toner will eventually be first choice. If Joe's tactics are to bully Scarlets' forwards, it's not surprising that he's starting Browne.

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Naming Heaslip captain this year with Cullen still around just isn't a realistic option. Maybe for next season if Cullen retires.

If POC can be replaced by Howlett (who's hardly a long term option for Munster's captain), Heaslip can replace Cullen.

Fishooks12 · 19-10-2012 5:24pm

Higher wrote: »

(1)Devin Toner is 2 years younger than Ryan
(2)Devin Toner has 3 Heineken Cup medals
(3)Devin Toner has been behind the club captain and then players like Hines and Brad Thorn who are considerably better than O'Callaghan (maybe POC too). Before that he was fresh out of the academy and competing with Malcom O'Kelly.
(4)Devin Toner was excellent against NZ when he came on. He was also MOTM in his international debut.
(5)Ryan only got his breakthrough when he had an extended run due to injury, Toner hasn't never got the opportunity.

What a lol

Even more so considering the two players you alluded to were not directly keeping Toner out of the side because they're both TH locks

Tox56 · 19-10-2012 5:31pm

Fishooks12 wrote: »

What a lol

Even more so considering the two players you alluded to were not directly keeping Toner out of the side because they're both TH locks

See what it's like trying to reason with the Captain??

Basically the Toner debate can be summed up by saying he is directly competing with the club captain. Yes Leo can move across (and I hope he will for a few games) but, realistically, Cullen is going to start every big game. Leinster have had some cracking TH locks recently, so it was always going to be difficult for Toner.

Whether it be through injury or retirement Toner will eventually get his chance to be a first team regular (in big games), and I suspect that will be very soon.

Fishooks12 · 19-10-2012 5:33pm

Higher wrote: »

I'm not exactly worried about Toner. at 26 and has at least 8 years of pro-rugby left in him at second row. Considering Ryan didn't even have a HC start at this point, I think its a bit early to be making comments like Schmidt and senior management don't trust Toner. This is definitely his breakthrough season without someone like MOK, Hines and Thorn here but I actually think Browne has been fantastic so far this season, on current form hes been playing better than O'Callaghan AND Ryan.

You just threw this comparison in to have another dig at Munster but I'm going to bring you up on it anyway because it's so fundamentally wrong

First off, DOC is playing very well this season while Browne has been pretty poor anytime I've seen him this year. Not that it matters, the question should be why you felt the need to compare the two in first place?!

Saying Browne is performing better than Ryan this year is like comparing apples and oranges. First of all, Ryan has played most of his little rugby so far this season out of position at 6. Second of all he's in a different league in terms of ability at lock

Fishooks12 · 19-10-2012 5:37pm

Tox56 wrote: »

See what it's like trying to reason with the Captain??

Basically the Toner debate can be summed up by saying he is directly competing with the club captain. Yes Leo can move across (and I hope he will for a few games) but, realistically, Cullen is going to start every big game. Leinster have had some cracking TH locks recently, so it was always going to be difficult for Toner.

Whether it be through injury or retirement Toner will eventually get his chance to be a first team regular (in big games), and I suspect that will be very soon.

Captain has a good knowledge of the game though! When he leaves the red glasses at home!

I think the Toner situation is a tricky one

Obviously dropping the club captain at this stage ain't an option. I would think Leinster wouldn't be weakened too much by putting Cullen across but it's pretty hard to judge that from our point of view.

I suppose trust in Schmidt should be the name of the game (and why not).

HEC: Llanelli Scarlets V Leinster, Parc y Scarlets Sat 20th Oct 13:35 Sky Sports 1

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