1st Presidential Debate Denver

20Cent

The first of three debates on tonight 2am Irish time, not sure if I'll be up for watching it. Its the first time Obama and Romney have gone head to head, should be interesting.

Topic: Domestic policy
Air Time: 9:00-10:30 p.m. Eastern Time
Location: University of Denver in Denver, Colorado (Tickets)
Sponsor: Commission on Presidential Debates
Participants: President Barack Obama and Governor Mitt Romney
Moderator: Jim Lehrer (Host of NewsHour on PBS)

The debate will focus on domestic policy and be divided into six time segments of approximately 15 minutes each on topics to be selected by the moderator and announced several weeks before the debate.
The moderator will open each segment with a question, after which each candidate will have two minutes to respond. The moderator will use the balance of the time in the segment for a discussion of the topic.

Any predictions?
I think Obama is a much better speaker but apparently Mitt Romney has been practicing his "Zingers". Should be interesting.

CONSI

Romney has to come out on the attack and point out all the promises Obama made that he has not elivered on, Obama said 4 years ago that if he didn't deliver X,Y,Z that he didn't deserve another term. You know Romney will point all these out, think one was universal health care, another unemployment under 8% and a third balance the books, Romney will have a field day with these.
A lot of Americans are getting a little sick of Obama's pontificating so this race might be closer than some people think

TwoShedsJackson

Romney couldn't deliver a 'zinger' if his life depended on it. Doesn't matter who wrote it for him.

jank

Romney will do better than people will think. People expect Obama to easily win this but he has everything to lose at this stage. Romney knows that he has to come out and do something otherwise all is lost. The first 30 mins are crucial.
Will it be enough? I dont think so but the race will tighten.

Duck Soup

Certainly, it would be surprising if Obama, even after a good debate performance, was to extend his lead. Most polls have him 4 to 5 points ahead in what's roughly a 50:50 split country, so he's probably peaked. But Romney has his own problems. If there's pressure on Obama it's simply to hold what he has. A competent, polished performance will suit him just fine as it won't change the dynamics of the race.

Romney on the other hand has to over-perform. His campaign has been flogging for a week the notion that he's got an arsenal of 'zingers' lined up, presumably to goad Obama into a more aggressive debating stance. That ain't going to happen. Romney will have to deliver his zingers and see if the world swoons or tumbleweed blows across the stage.

Romney's main aim will be to not make a gaffe and he's unlikely to stray off script, but he still has a problem. He's always said that this election is about the economy. So therefore the most legitimate area of interest would be his economic policies. His economic policies are basically tax cuts and more tax cuts. He says they'll be revenue neutral because of an explosion of economic growth and by closing many exemptions and tax breaks. But he won't say what they are.

Unless the moderator, Jim Lehrer, wants to be remembered for an inability to extract even the most basic information out of the candidates, he has to push Romney to answer the question about which loopholes are to be closed.

You can have all the zingers you like, but if you can't answer a simple and important question, that may the bit that everyone remembers and gets played ad nauseam on the news networks the next day.

Denerick

Pity its at such an antisocial hour.

Will it be available online sometime on thursday?

Overheal

Kelly Goldwyn, Morning radio host: What should be Romney's tactic for this debate? I think he needs to go in like a rabid bulldog and go straight for Obama's jugular

Caller: Oh I completely agree

Overheal

What channels are carrying this?

CONSI

I know it's on Sky News

Amerika

The debates begin. Three things we know for sure about the debate tonight: 1) Obama will face a hostile opponent while Romney will face a hostile opponent and a hostile moderator. 2) It’s not a debate as much as a presentation, and the candidates will spin their debate "answers" to fit their 5 or 6 key talking point issues that they want to get across to the electorate. 3) George Stephanopoulos will declare Barack Obama the winner of the debate.

After experiencing 4 years of Obama as President and 2 before that on the campaign trail, we’ve decided to have a drinking game at my place regarding his "tells" - which always seem betray his upcoming reply from the truth. (and it will help to stomach the fantasies to come).

Tell #1. If you hear a pattern of "ahs" and "uhmms" in his reply we’re in for a whopper.

Tell #2. Run-on and flailing about non-answering style which will take him beyond his allotted time to answer, challenging the moderator to comment about time limits, and then feign contempt which will let him off the hook. Not so much as a "tell" but an effective ploy on his part becasue a friendly moderator will give him a pass (at which point Romney should jump in and protest).

Tell #4. Commenting about his favorite straw men. Non-responsive self-pity about how hard a job he had when he took over, how hard it is in Washington, how hard he has been working, and that nobody could have fixed things. He will go into blaming someone else for his failures and denouncing the culprits… GW Bush, Congress, Wall Street, the weather, the boogeyman, etc.

Tell #5. "Let me be clear." When you hear this, run for the hills because the response will be a clear as mud, full of noncommittal legalize speek, and you'll need hip-waders to tramp through the pile that is about to be shoveled in.

We are limiting ourselves to one bottle of Tequila… hopefully it’ll last us longer than a half an hour.

I think Romney will be respectful, yet hold Obama's feet to the fire and not allow him to get away with any pontification. He will key on the failures of the current administration, how he will go about fixing the mess they have caused, and how the American people will be better off with him at the helm.

Overheal

You mean Romney might actually tell us how he plans to do things?

Well now that is worthy of an ahhh...

Amerika

Overheal wrote: »

You mean Romney might actually tell us how he plans to do things?

Yup, and here they are.
http://www.mittromney.com/sites/default/files/shared/presidentialaccountabilityscorecard_1_1.pdf


As for Obama... well I guess just more of the Same Old, Same Old... and a $22Trillion in debt at the end of a second term... Yeahhhhhhh!

TwoShedsJackson

Tell #3 is top secret then, is it?

Amerika

TwoShedsJackson wrote: »

Tell #3 is top secret then, is it?

Good one . I combined my original #2 (delay tactics) with #3 (disgust) and forgot to change the numbers.

Denerick

Amerika wrote: »

Good one . I combined my original #2 (delay tactics) with #3 (disgust) and forgot to change the numbers.

Look, I know Obama is to conservatives as Bush was to liberals, but I think you're going a little far. He's not satan incarnate, just your average Muslim socialist trying to do his best.

Einhard

Can't wait for this. I have my tub of Ben & Jerry's Caramel Chew Ches in the fridge in preparation. Politics and food...two of my favourite things in the world!:pac:

The funny thing about the debates is that it's not always about who wins, but about who most exceeds expectations. In the Biden/Palin debate of four years ago, I thought Biden clearly won, yet it was declared a tie because Palin performed competently when some thought she would implode. Obama is a gifted orator, but he's not a brilliant debater IMO. Yet people seem to conflate the two skills, and assume because he speaks well in one arena, that he'll carry the day with easy in the debate. And so expectations are raised. Romney, on the other hand, is a pretty mediocre orator. Not bad, but certainly not soaring in his speeches. People don't know so much about his debating skills, despite the series in the Republican primary. So expectations are lowered for him. I think it will be a very interesting debate, and I expect one where there'll be a lot of direct challenges between the candidates. Should be fun!

I'm annoyed though that it's not on CNN (or Fox as far as I can tell). I watched the CNN coverage four years ago, and thought they were excellent. Won't be as happy watching them on Sky.

Amerika

Denerick wrote: »

Look, I know Obama is to conservatives as Bush was to liberals, but I think you're going a little far.

Well you have my forecast... It will be pretty easy to see how many come true in tonight's debate. How about joining me in the "shots" drinking game (but don't blame me if you get stone cold drunk)?

He's not satan incarnate, just your average Muslim socialist trying to do his best.

Sorry you feel that way. I just think he's simply misguided about what the general public wants, and unqualified for the challenges a POTUS faces in these troubling times.

Amerika

Einhard wrote: »

I'm annoyed though that it's not on CNN (or Fox as far as I can tell). I watched the CNN coverage four years ago, and thought they were excellent. Won't be as happy watching them on Sky.

If I'm not mistaken, I believe C-SPAN will also be carrying it and will be streaming it live on the web. (I watched much of the RNC and DNC conventions live and streamed on C-SPAN)

Overheal

Amerika wrote: »

Yup, and here they are.
http://www.mittromney.com/sites/default/files/shared/presidentialaccountabilityscorecard_1_1.pdf


As for Obama... well I guess just more of the Same Old, Same Old... and a $22Trillion in debt at the end of a second term... Yeahhhhhhh!

A 1 page powerpoint slide? confidence!

oh then theres this, where there seems to be no acknowledgement either that tax cuts cost money, or the real specifics about what cuts Ryan plans to make in order to make the changes "revenue neutral"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lpwVFdQL_s

Denerick

Amerika wrote: »

Well you have my forecast... It will be pretty easy to see how many come true in tonight's debate. How about joining me in the "shots" drinking game (but don't blame me if you get stone cold drunk)?

Unfortunately I have to work tomorrow. Plus no-one in my house cares about politics so I'd be drinking alone which technically might make me an alcoholic. It is a good idea though, I might try and arrange something similar for the next Irish election if we have a leader's debate.

Amerika

Denerick wrote: »

Unfortunately I have to work tomorrow.

Me too. Luckily I have some "sick" and "personal" days left.

Plus no-one in my house cares about politics...

Wanna trade? As I said before I'm considered a RINO, and not Right Wing enough in my family. (Honestly I understand the frustration some hear feel with my pretty moderate posts... by US standards. I sometimes wish I could tune out some of the harsh Right Wing stuff I hear at home)

...so I'd be drinking alone which technically might make me an alcoholic. It is a good idea though,

Medicine... think of it as medicine!

I might try and arrange something similar for the next Irish election if we have a leader's debate.

Post me some "tells" before hand, and if the election is streamed, I might join you. I'm not much of a drinker, but politics seems to be the exception.

Brian?

My prediction is that it'll be like watching paint dry. Most debates are, with the exception of Palin v Biden last time. That was like a carnival side show, poor ol Joe looked mystified at what he was hearing during the entire debate.

Obama will do his usual grand standing and pontificating. I'd much prefer to see him drag Romney over the coals, but being the front runner it's a far better strategy to simply be passive and shadow box.

Romney will sneer and snipe through the debate, I predict a series of god awful one liners. He can't do anything else though because there is zero substance to his plan. That nonsense on his website is not a plan it's bot even a manifesto.


Fox to call it a Romney win, MSNBC to call it for Obama and me to be asleep by the end out of boredom.

The debate on foreign policy should be interesting though.

Amerika

Here’s one thing I can’t figure out… who keeps letting people like Jim Lehrer, a liberal public-broadcasting anchor, moderate these presidential debates?

Given that Romney (if elected President) has stated his desire to cut subsidies for PBS (The MacNeil-Lehrer Report) as he considers it no longer essential, Lehrer’s objectivity should be brought into question.

Here’s also something he wrote about Nixon and Watergate, when Nixon was planning to defund PBS.

"As justice, it was pure delicious. We were being bailed out by the sins of a president who was trying to do us in. He and his minions were so distracted with the crumbling of his presidency that the plan to crumble us was abandoned and forgotten."

Brian?

Amerika wrote: »

Here’s one thing I can’t figure out… who keeps letting people like Jim Lehrer, a liberal public-broadcasting anchor, moderate these presidential debates?

Given that Romney (if elected President) has stated his desire to cut subsidies for PBS (The MacNeil-Lehrer Report) as he considers it no longer essential, Lehrer’s objectivity should be brought into question.

Here’s also something he wrote about Nixon and Watergate, when Nixon was planning to defund PBS.

"As justice, it was pure delicious. We were being bailed out by the sins of a president who was trying to do us in. He and his minions were so distracted with the crumbling of his presidency that the plan to crumble us was abandoned and forgotten."

Getting your excuses in for a poor Romney performance already?

Lehrer can be objective because he's a professional. Who would you suggest replacing him with?

Duck Soup

Amerika wrote: »

Here’s one thing I can’t figure out… who keeps letting people like Jim Lehrer, a liberal public-broadcasting anchor, moderate these presidential debates?

Given that Romney (if elected President) has stated his desire to cut subsidies for PBS (The MacNeil-Lehrer Report) as he considers it no longer essential, Lehrer’s objectivity should be brought into question.

Here’s also something he wrote about Nixon and Watergate, when Nixon was planning to defund PBS.

"As justice, it was pure delicious. We were being bailed out by the sins of a president who was trying to do us in. He and his minions were so distracted with the crumbling of his presidency that the plan to crumble us was abandoned and forgotten."

Everything you write here is from an article linked to from the Drudge Report front page. Just sayin'.

Amerika

Yup, Drudge Report is one of my sources for political information. Real Clear Politics, Hot Air, The Daily Beast, National Review Online, Hufpo, The Weekly Standard, and Salon are the others with links to some of the best political articles written by some of the best political writers I draw my political information from. You should also check them out sometime. Some even come from NPR which I listen to every morning and evening on my drive. And some from Bill O'reilly and Chris Matthews, which is pretty much the extent of my evening political TV viewing.

20Cent

Unfortunately agreeing with BrianKeeting on this one thing it might be pretty boring. Both will be playing it safe.

Amerika

briankeating wrote: »

Who would you suggest replacing him with?

For objectivity, I would go with just about any of the anchors at Bloomberg News.

sceptre

Amerika wrote: »

Here’s one thing I can’t figure out… who keeps letting people like Jim Lehrer, a liberal public-broadcasting anchor, moderate these presidential debates? [/I]

It's very easy to figure out while you're sitting wherever you are. Google the Commission on Presidential Debates, which organises the debates. It's currently chaired by Frank Fahrenkopf and Mike McCurry.

Jim Lehrer is, of course, a former anchor for PBS. He left that role over a year ago after he reached his 77th birthday. After tonight, he'll have moderated twelve presidential debates (previously, one in 1988, two in 1992, three in 1996, three in 2000, one in 2004 and one in 2008).

Amerika

I checked out the CPD website. It does answer the question of who selects the moderators, but doesn’t give any criteria for the moderators chosen.

Their website states that the first debate:

The debate will focus on domestic policy and be divided into six time segments of approximately 15 minutes each on topics to be selected by the moderator and announced several weeks before the debate.

So it’s the moderator who decides what questions will be asked of the candidates. I might be a bit biased, but if that’s the case you’d think the CPD would look for the most talented, objective and impartial people to serve as moderators.

IvySlayer

Is there going to be much cross examination allowed?

IvySlayer

Conan O'Brien ‏@ConanOBrien
Romney prepped for tonight’s debate by debating with a man whose views differ radically from his own: himself from 8 years ago.

brimal

Sky News is free online and can be accessed here - http://news.sky.com/templates/watch-live

IvySlayer

Doesn't start til 2am :P

Black Swan

Republicans declare that Romney won the first debate. Democrats counter-declare that Obama won the debate. No wait... the debate does not occur for another 15 minutes. I'll bet the "winning" press releases have already been written by both parties, and they will just add a couple lines during the debate to make it appear that they were written afterwards.

Overheal wrote: »

What channels are carrying this?

NBC is currently featuring it for 90 minutes, but there should be other national networks airing it too. They estimate that there should be 50 million viewers on all networks and cable.

mathproblem

Remember the McCain-Obama debates. They were a serious gamechanger IMO. The image of Obama looking poised & confident with McCain tottering around in the background like someone who from the old folks home wandering around the supermarket.. Conan & Letterman & the rest were taking the piss instantly & from then on he wasn't really a contender.

That & the moment where McCain done a very noble thing in response to a question Obama's fitness to be President/whether he was a radical. McCain took a moment to reassure the American people that Obama wasn't some crazy commie infiltrator & that the country would still carry on if he got in. McCain had a chance to get really dirty there, he probably still wouldn't have won because it was late in the day at that stage, but he realised the danger of radical elements taking things too far and sacrificed himself for keeping the nation somewhat unified. I've always had great respect for McCain since that moment.

I expect Obama's most used phrase tonight about Romney will be "out of touch"... & Romney's message will be 'lead us out of this economic mess' - there's a danger then that Obama will come off as negative, whereas Romney could seem proactive. Obama's job will be to spell out the long-term element of the transformation needed in the economy by stressing the mess he was left by Bush II & leaving people think Romney is a carbon copy of him.

"A lot done more to do" - we might buy it in Europe 'cos we see the quagmire the whole world is in; might be harder to convince a lot of middle America, who probably never look much beyond their borders except to where their boys are sent & just expect the president to get the job done, like it's flicking a switch.

moneymad

all you will hear is
jobs,fiscal cliff and medicare...

Black Swan

Let's start with the economy... Jobs... Obama answers first.

Thrill

Jobs first up.

Fiftysix

I am pretty sure Mitt almost just made a gay joke, then stopped it.

IvySlayer

Did Romney jusy say energy independant and pipeline from Canada in one sentence?

Sir Pompous Righteousness

Romney: I don't want tax cuts for high income earners - they're doing just fine, I want to reduce taxes for middle income earners.

2 minutes later

Romney: I want tax cuts for corporations.

??????

Sir Pompous Righteousness

IvySlayer wrote: »

Did Romney jusy say energy independant and pipeline from Canada in one sentence?

I really doubt the US will ever be "energy independent" given that they are the greatest consumers of oil in the world and that consumption is growing.

joseph brand

Mitt Romney: "Clean coal".

No interest in renewables. Germany showed us how powerful renewable energy can be.

IvySlayer

I'm used to people to saying things that are not true.

- Mitt Romney

mathproblem

This is very technical. I think a lot of Americans have switched off already. Romney did well to get his simple 5 point plan in in his opening salvo.

Klair88

Romney is already backtracking on loads of points, it shows how incumbent he is. But he's showing more confidence now and stupid middle american's will be lapping it up. He's really appealing to the stupid of america.

Einhard

I think Romney is doing very well. Obama seems somewhat hesitant.

darahiggins

I think Romney is doing pretty damn well. far more composed and polished. Obama looks to be making it up on the spot...

IvySlayer

Obama attacking his loophole plan again..

Sir Pompous Righteousness

Is Obama trying to make it look as though Romney is going to massively cut taxes without cutting spending. Clever ploy. But Romney did say he won't reduce taxes to the extent that it would contribute to deficit.