Melbourne Cup 2012

Nulty

Should be a thread on this already - for shame..

Galileo's Choice is my choice. Bout of travel sickness for the poor chap but he's on the mend.

Melbourne travel woes for Galileo's

Dermot Weld revealed Melbourne Cup contender Galileo's Choice suffered travel sickness following a troublesome journey to Australia.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5ib03R9vH4WwkQ9X1tM-5PwM3xVXQ?docId=N0495601349013677457A

Order of Entry:
No.|Name|Wgt
1|Americain|58.0
2|Dunaden|58.0
3|Manighar|57.0
4|Southern Speed|54.5
5|Jukebox Jury|56.0
6|Red Cadeaux|55.5
7|Jakkalberry|55.5
8|Winchester|55.5
9|Ethiopia|53.5
10|Voila Ici|55.0
||
11|Colour Vision|55.0
12|Efficient|55.0
13|Lights Of Heaven|53.0
14|Mawingo|54.5
15|Drunken Sailor|54.0
16|Polish Knight|52.5
17|Midas Touch|54.0
18|Cavalryman|54.0
19|Sanagas|54.0
20|Mount Athos|54.0
|||No.|Name|Wgt
21|Maluckyday|53.5
22|Niwot|53.5
23|Mourayan|53.5
24|Seville|53.5
25|Green Moon|53.5
26|Zabeelionaire|52.0
27|Tac De Boistron|53.5
28|Sapphire|52.0
29|Quest For Peace|53.5
30|Fiorente|53.5
||
31|Galileo's Choice|53.5
32|Precedence|53.0
33|Linton|53.0
34|Tullamore|53.0
35|Lamasery|53.0
36|Quintissential|50.0
37|Unusual Suspect|53.0
38|Moudre|53.0
39|Lost In The Moment|53.0
40|Brigantin|53.0
|||No.|Name|Wgt
41|Prairie Star|53.0
42|The Verminator|52.5
43|Ironstein|52.5
44|Sabrage|51.0
45|Permit|52.5
46|Willing Foe|52.5
47|Illo|52.5
48|Dance With Her|50.5
49|Rialya|52.0
50|Tanby|52.0
||
51|Zurella|50.0
52|Miss Artistic|50.0
53|Shewan|52.0
54|Shenzou Steeds |51.5
55|Moyenne Corniche|51.5
56|Exceptionally|50.0
57|Aliyana Tilde|50.0
58|Gatewood|51.5
59|Ibicenco|51.5
60|Shahwardi|51.5

Nulty

Frankie Dettori to partner Cavalryman in the Melbourne Cup

Lost In The Moment, who was just behind in third place, is also on course for the Australia showpiece, with Kerrin McEvoy her [sic] likely pilot.
Mickael Barzalona will be on Brigantin for Andrew Fabre.

http://www.rte.ie/sport/racing/world/2012/0928/339490-frankie-opts-for-cavalryman-in-cup/


Also - Full sister to Makybe Diva arrives while queen of the cups gives birth to fifth foal

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/superracing/full-sister-to-makybe-diva-arrives-while-queen-of-the-cups-gives-birth-to-fifth-foal/story-fn67siys-1226482887420

dave3004

Obviously we can't really decide which import will adapt best to the climate and change of atmosphere, let alone adapt to the different style of racing over here but my money will be on Colour Vision.

He is still only 4 (seems to have been around a while). Godolphin have horses around the world and are probably better than anyone at readying horses in new environments.

High Jinx - What price is he at? Seems to be progressive for Fanshawe and woudlnt rule it out.

Nulty

Seville was sold to Australia and is entered in the Cup.

Overthelast

I'll be siding with Red Cadeaux if he turns up.

dave3004

I'd be pretty sure Red Cadeaux and Seville can't win.

It will be an import who wins and it probably won't have more than 54.5kg on its back.

Nulty

Seville just doesn't win enough to be considered but he's 24 on the order of entry list and could well run. The Turnbull Stakes are on this weekend and he's entered. Keep us posted on news from down under dave.

Nulty

dave3004 wrote: »

Obviously we can't really decide which import will adapt best to the climate and change of atmosphere, let alone adapt to the different style of racing over here but my money will be on Colour Vision.

He is still only 4 (seems to have been around a while). Godolphin have horses around the world and are probably better than anyone at readying horses in new environments.

High Jinx - What price is he at? Seems to be progressive for Fanshawe and woudlnt rule it out.

I reckon you can forget Colour Vision. non-runner price on betfair - 800/1+

Also Seville 100/1+
Willing Foe 600/1+
More Joyous 180/1+

Just looking...Jukebox Jury is retired after a setback.

Harry Angstrom

I reckon Cumani is due a change of luck in this race after Bauer went so close a few years back. Mount Athos looks just the type of horse to run a big race in a Melbourne Cup. He's lightly raced this season and seems to have been laid out for the race. Red Cadeaux, Dunaden and Americain have too much weight and Colour Vision looked like a tired horse in the Doncaster Cup.
Gatewood could be an interesting outsider if he runs.

dave3004

Ive 3quid on Gatewood AP from ages ago. Dont think he will run the 2m though.

Colour Vision is not going to travel.

More Joyous is a class act but no way will she be getting 2m. Ran over 6f ther other day.

I know this might sound strange but Manighar might be a shout.

He ran about 5th or 6th last year.....hitting the front too soon.
He's a far better horse this term as Moody has bulked him up and although he had a flat run lto when a well backed fav he could bounce back.

There are big wraps on Mount Athos (Was told to take the $10 available), on Brigantin and Tac De Boistron. Will have to see them run first.

Is Times Up or High Jinx a possible runner?

No local has a chance BTW. Atrocious options. Going to back 5 or 6 overseas horses in a boxed first four.

Ray Mond

Was gonna have a nice bet on mount athos at 8/1 ? Wat do people think of his chances

Nulty

Mount Athos has a very good chance - a favourites chance. He's reported to have travelled over well and is weighted well. Cumani will win it eventually and this looks to be his best chance to date. Wouldn't want the ground to go soft though.

Nulty

Haven't watched it yet but the Turnbull was on last night in Aus and Green Moon won by half a length from Seville and December Draw.

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=565431&r_date=2012-10-06&popup=yes#results_top_tabs=re_&results_bottom_tabs=ANALYSIS

watched the race from the turn there on YT. Seville looks to be a good shout at this stage. Green Moon quickened well but Seville was getting there slowly but surely.

"He deserves his place in the Caulfield Cup. The question is whether it will all come too quickly this year, but he is in top form," Nick Williams said.

Nulty

Looks like Welds contender is coming back to himself

Galileo's Choice gets back on track
Travel-sick Weld ace is on the mend in Oz

...

"My fellow just spiked a temperature and initially had to have a few antibiotics, so that wasn't nice, but he seems to be responding rapidly. His temperature is back to normal and he's back eating, but it did take a bit out of him," said Weld.

...

Nulty

Colm O'Donoghue sets double date with Jakkalberry

Colm O'Donoghue has been snapped up by the connections of Jakkalberry to ride the six-year-old in both the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups.

http://www.rte.ie/sport/racing/world/2012/0930/339685-odonoghue-to-ride-jakkalberry-in-melbourne/

It's old news but interesting nonetheless

dave3004

Was impressed with Seville too in the Turnbull.

His first good run in Oz since arriving.

He's been running over 7f etc and needs at least 1m 4f. Was he placed in a Derby?

Either way he was 110 on betfair for Melbourne Cup when I checked last week.....Reckon thats gone.

Nulty

dave3004 wrote: »

Was impressed with Seville too in the Turnbull.

His first good run in Oz since arriving.

He's been running over 7f etc and needs at least 1m 4f. Was he placed in a Derby?

Either way he was 110 on betfair for Melbourne Cup when I checked last week.....Reckon thats gone.

Second to Carlton House in the Dante and I think placed in the Irish Derby. He didn't perform well at Epsom iirc.

Nulty

Seville (24) has been taken ill and withdrawn from the Carnival.

same with Manighar (3)

Nulty

Dermot Weld had three horses entered for the Melbourne Cup

• Rite Of Passage
• Sapphire
• Galileo's Choice

Smullen says this should be his best chance of winning the race thus far in his career. He had Vinnie Roe (2nd in 2004, 8th in 2005), Profound Beauty (17th in 2010(5th in 2008 for local jock)).

Afaik he's 25th on the ballot - needs 1 more to come out and that's including Seville and Manighar. Weld says all systems go and the horses has been working over there no problems.


Why is the horse 25/1 on BF with e200+ to lay?

Mellor

I think the top weights are too much for Americain and Dunedan (up to 59kg now). But I haven't totally written off Dunedan after cruising in the Caulfield cup with 58kg

Jakkalberry also has my interest.

Racecaller

Trends for the past 10 runnings of the Melbourne Cup below (http://tinyurl.com/9jsgxrz):

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 0-1-2
4yo: 2-11-69
5yo: 6-8-75
6yo: 1-6-48
7yo: 1-2-26
8yo+: 0-2-9
No huge bias on aged but horses aged 4 or 5 have won 8 of the last 10 and the two exceptions were both Makybe Diva winning it as a 6yo and 7yo.

Weights (in kilos)
Horses carrying 57.0 or more: 1-3-12
Horses carrying 54 to 56.5: 5-10-63
Horses carrying 51 to 53.5: 4-13-123
Horses carrying 50.5 or less: 0-4-31
If we just focus on more recent times, in the last 7 years:
Horses carrying 53.0 or more: 6-14-84
Horses carrying 52.5 or less: 1-7-74
Top Weight: 403281700704 (1-4-12)

Recent/Past Form
5 of 10 winners (last 3) won a group race last time (5 others beaten in a group 1)
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 17 days
6 of 10 winners had run 4 to 6 times since 1st August (4 exceptions trained outside of Aus&NZ)
10 of 10 winners had won over 2400m (1M 4F) or further
10 of 10 winners had run in 13 or fewer handicaps
9 of 10 winners had run in a group 1
5 of 10 winners had won a group 1
7 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a group 1 (2 others finished 6th & 7th in a group 1)
10 of 10 winners had won a group race
5 of 10 winners had won at the track (4 of 5 exceptions were having first course start)
10 of 10 winners had won a race with 14 or more runners

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Dunaden): 11704 (2-1-5)
Geelong Cup winner (Gatewood): 1029211 (3-2-7)
Turnbull Stakes winner (Green Moon): 4104 (1-2-4)
Lexus Stakes winner: 0000396138 (1-2-10)
Australian Cup winner (Manighar): 14 (1-1-2)
Cox Plate winner: 13 (1-1-2)
Mackinnon Stakes winner: 1030 (1-1-4)
Previous season's VRC Queen Elizabeth Stakes winner (Ironstein): 0130 (1-1-4)
Brisbane Cup winner (Lights Of Heaven): 0601 (1-1-4)
Sydney Cup winner (Niwot): 10 (1-0-2)
The BMW Stakes winner (Manighar): 100 (1-0-3)
Underwood Stakes winner (Ocean Park): 43 (0-2-2)
Makybe Diva Stakes winner (Southern Speed): 40 (0-1-2)
Caulfield Stakes winner (Ocean Park): 03 (0-1-2)
Ballyroan Stakes winner (Galileo's Choice): 40 (0-1-2)
Previous year's Zipping Classic winner (Americain): 94 (0-1-2)
Glorious Stakes winner (My Quest For Peace): 20 (0-1-2)
Windflower March Stakes winner (My Quest For Peace): 03 (0-1-2)
Herbert Power Stakes winner (Shahwardi): 84860 (0-1-5)
Caulfield Cup winner (Dunaden): 40087P (0-1-6)
AJC Derby winner (Ethiopia): 0000 (0-0-4)
AJC Metropolitan Handicap winner (Glencadam Gold): 00000 (0-0-5)
Record of horses placed in Caulfield Cup: 6761010810077080000505 (3-0-22)
Record of 2nd, 3rd & 4th from Dato'Tan Chin Nam Stakes: 8111089 (3-0-7)
4 of 7 Australasian-trained winners ran in Caufield Cup, finishing 4230
4 of 7 Australasian-trained winners ran in Turnbull Stakes, finishing 4710
3 of 7 Australasian-trained winners ran in Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes, finishing 224
3 of 7 Australasian-trained winners ran in the Memsie Stakes, finishing 410
2 of 7 Australasian-trained winners ran in Cox Plate last time, finishing 19
3 of 3 European-trained winners ran in Geelong Cup last time, finishing 111
2 of 2 French-trained winners ran in Prix Kergolay, finishing 19

Trainers
Lee Freedman (2-0-4) twice won the race with Makybe Diva in 2004 and 2005.
Dermot Weld (1-2-7) is still the only European trainer to have won the race twice (‘93&’02). In the past decade he has saddled the winner and 2 places from 7 runners. Only 1 of his 7 runners has finished out of the top half.
Graeme Rogerson (1-2-6) has also trained the winner and 2 placed finishers.
Alain Royer-Dupre (1-1-2) trained Americain to win it in 2010 and place last year.
Bart Cummings (1-1-15) has trained the winner 12 times, but only once since 2002.
Mikel Delzangles (1-0-1) & Mark Kavanagh (1-0-2) have both won this in past 3 years.
Luca Cumani (0-2-5) has had the runner-up in this race in 2 of the last 4 years. Saeed Bin Suroor (0-2-9) has also bagged a couple of places, while Danny O’Brien (0-2-10) saddled Master O’Reilly to be placed in 2008 & 2009.
French-trained runners: 2-1-4
Irish-trained runners: 1-3-13
British-trained runners: 0-6-37

Draw
Horses drawn 1-7: 2-13-70
Horses drawn 8-14: 7-10-70
Horses drawn 15+: 1-7-89
Shocking did amazingly well to win from stall 21 in 2009 as there has been a large big draw bias towards being drawn in the centre.
The likely reasoning for this is that horses drawn on the inside will struggle to get a run if they do not break well while horses drawn wide may have to expend a lot of energy to get a good early position.
In the past 9 years 16 of 18 horses to finish 1st or 2nd have been drawn in stalls 7 to 15.

Price
7 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
However 3 of the last 6 winners have been price 17/1, 16/1 and 40/1, so not a particularly strong trends race pricewise.
Favourites (2-3-11) have won just 2 of the last 10 runnings (both Makybe Diva), giving a level stakes loss of 2.00.

Racing Style
9 of 10 winners were held up in 8th to 16th place at the halfway point
Hold-up horses are favoured but as with all big competitive races you will need luck in running.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 4 or 5
• Carrying 53.0 kilos or more
• Ran in a group race last time (or finished in first 5 in Caulfield Cup)
• Ran in last 17 days
• Run 4 to 6 times since 1st August (or trained outside Aus/NZ)
• Won a group race (preferably a group 1)
• Finished in the first 4 in a group 1
• Won over 2400m or further
• Won a race with 14+ runners
• Run in 13 or fewer handicaps
• Course winner (or having first run at Flemington)
• Ran in Caulfield Cup, Turnbull, Memsie and/or Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes
• Won the Geelong Cup
• Likes to be held up
• Drawn 7 to 15

dave3004

Gatewood won Geelong Cup but only got a 1kg raise. He's entered as 3.80 fav i nthe Lexus this week and its only a 3 day turnaround til the Melbourne Cup. I dunno. If he wins the Lexus I dont think they could resist backing him up in the Melbourne Cup.

I have an Ante Post bet on Gatewood and Ethiopia but will wait until Tuesday (the day of the race) to have a chunky bet. All ground dependent and weather aint been great last few days but meant to be 31 degrees on Monday.

So reckon Dunaden has a chance but I fancy he's too much weight.

One of imports will win though.

Maybe Galileos Choice or Brigantin or Mount Athos

Mellor

dave3004 wrote: »

Gatewood won Geelong Cup but only got a 1kg raise.

+1kg is a set raise for the Geelong. Same with Caulfield (Dunedin)

Nulty

Mellor wrote: »

+1kg is a set raise for the Geelong. Same with Caulfield (Dunedin)

I understood it that the handicapper can give anything he deems suitable for the penalty. Connections were hoping for 2.5kg.

dave3004

Nulty wrote: »

I understood it that the handicapper can give anything he deems suitable for the penalty. Connections were hoping for 2.5kg.

Yeah you're right. They can raise them anything. But it was slowly run and Gatewood kicked off the front and won cosily by 1/2 length. Couldnt raise him too much for it really. Media questioning the form of the race here too.

Americain getting smashed in the betting now as Mosse is given the boot in preference for Damien Oliver.

Dunaden and Americain are poorly weighted.

I think an unexposed import will win. I'm thinkin Mount Athos the more I look at the race. He's beaten all the good stayers in UK giving them weight (Times Up etc).

Mellor

Nulty wrote: »

I understood it that the handicapper can give anything he deems suitable for the penalty. Connections were hoping for 2.5kg.

Yeah he can give anything. I suppose he always can adjust any weights as he sees fit.
But my point was that 1kg is pretty standard.


I'm flipping on Dunedin daily.
Has he a chance with 59kg?

dave3004

I can see Dunaden running very well but I also see someone off a lower weight getting a plum run.

I can't look past Mount Athos form in UK.

Its taken on trust that he acclimatises but I will be on him for the cup.

The weather here is perfect for next few days. So I think the good ground will all but ruin Americain's chances. He'll run well I am sure though but at 5/1 I can't be having him.

Mount Athos for me on good ground off a low weight.

Nulty

Gatewood well beaten in the Lexus this morning.

Galileos Choice gets stall 11.

1 (16)DUNADEN (FR) (Mikel Delzangles)
2 (12)AMERICAIN (USA) (Alain de Royer Dupre)
3 (19)JAKKALBERRY (IRE) (Marco Botti)
4 (18)RED CADEAUX (GB) (Ed Dunlop)
5 (22)WINCHESTER (USA) (John Sadler)
6 (13)VOILA ICI (IRE) (Peter Moody)
7 (6) CAVALRYMAN (GB) (Saeed bin Suroor)
8 (8)MOUNT ATHOS (IRE) (Luca Cumani)
9 (4)SANAGAS (GER) (Bart Cummings)
10 (14)ETHIOPIA (Pat Carey)
11 (2)FIORENTE (IRE) (Gai Waterhouse)
12 (11)GALILEO'S CHOICE (IRE) (Dermot Weld)
13 (7)GLENCADAM GOLD (IRE) (Gai Waterhouse)
14 (5)GREEN MOON (IRE) (Robert Hickmott)
15 (9)MALUCKYDAY (NZ) (Team Hawkes)
16 (3)MOURAYAN (IRE) (Robert Hickmott)
17 (1)MY QUEST FOR PEACE (IRE) (Luca Cumani)
18 (15)NIWOT (Team Hawkes)
19 (21)TAC DE BOISTRON (FR) (Michael Kent)
20 (17)LIGHTS OF HEAVEN (NZ) (Peter Moody)
21 (20)PRECEDENCE (NZ) (Bart Cummings)
22 (23)UNUSUAL SUSPECT (USA) (Michael Kent)
23 (24)ZABEELIONAIRE (NZ) (Leon Corstens)
24 (10)KELINNI (IRE) (Chris Waller)

Nulty

Racing Post card:

http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=567395&r_date=2012-11-06#raceTabs=sc_

UrbanSea

I have zero knowledge of the race and have followed it accordingly. Mourayan is/was a nice horse though and I see he won a group 3 last time. Could run well, had some high class form over here

dave3004

Mourayan doesnt have a turn of foot to win this. He will finish top 10 though.

I've it down to Mount Athos, Red Cadeaux and My Quest For Peace.

Might forecast the Cumani pair....

Nulty

Fiorente is interesting but record for horses off the plane isn't good and he seems to perform best in easy ground.

Harry Angstrom

Does anyone know how the Aussie bookmakers are betting on it? I have a feeling either Americain or Dunaden might be sent off favourite with the Aussie bookies even though Mount Athos is currently favourite with the British/Irish bookies.

longshotvalue

My main hope for this Lost in the Moment hasn’t got in unfortunately so I’m going to so with a few big outsiders.


Both Bart Cummins big outsiders have the look of ones that have been prepared for this race and have some decent form in the past. Precedence & Sanagas are a few points too big from a trainer with a great record. Sanagas had a very decent record in the states and didn’t get the best of runs in the Caulfield Cup. Precedence may struggle to stay but could well be ridden differently this time and is sure to be ready for this race.


I’m also going with a bet on Cavalryman , he looks treated well enough given his best form and has been better this year stepped up in trip. He is closely matched with my original selection and 34 on Betfair looks a decent bit of value


½ Point win all 3 Betfair


Precedence 160, Sanagas 55, Cavalryman 34

bassy

where to watch or listen to this race live ?.

Harry Angstrom

bassy wrote: »

where to watch or listen to this race live ?.

ATR are showing it live.

bassy

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

ATR are showing it live.

Cheers.

I've gone with galileos choice @ 12/1 it was also given in the Sunday world beat bet of the day lol.

hucklebuck

Just backed Galileos Choice at 16.5, looks a cracking bet.

The race is on in 5 hours isn't it?

bassy

hucklebuck wrote: »

Just backed Galileos Choice at 16.5, looks a cracking bet.

The race is on in 5 hours isn't it?

4 or 4.20am

hucklebuck

There hasn't been much talk about it so I thought I had my day wrong.

Nulty

"It's pelting down at Flemington"

Looking good for Galileos! They watered with 9mm yesterday - lol

Nulty

Stopped raining and not sure if there will be more but Dunlop and Redvers said on ATR that it would take a lot of rain to change the going. Every little helps

bassy

verdant for the 12.45 race

Nulty

John Berry is a legend. Could listen to him all day talk about racing. I say this every year.

bassy

bassy wrote: »

verdant for the 12.45 race

delighted with that run and a 6/1 winner

Nulty

bassy wrote: »

delighted with that run and a 6/1 winner

He was cruising on the inside.

bassy

Nulty wrote: »

He was cruising on the inside.

ran a great race and held on with ease

dave3004

Galileos Choice at 12s? Hes 22/1 over here !

Its not raining that bad. Track upgraded to Good 3 so ground is still good.

Mount Athos, Dunaden and Americain all 6/1 favs.

I've a couple of tracker horses running today.

RosehilleRace 3 - Photon Willie

Rosehill Race 8 - Sailors Farewell

bassy

whos staying up for race?

bassy

nulty you gone?.

zweton

anyone got a link to the race?