Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

TheMilkyPirate

Sunday week, News today that it won't be shown on terrestrial tv. Bit of a bummer as the choice we have now is either ATR or RUK. Chapman will be reporting live from Longchamp, A first for ATR.

I myself fancy the japanese horse Orfevre, Was impressive the last day at longchamp beating Meandre comfortably.

UrbanSea

I think a lot of the value has gone from the market. Think Shareta is a nice price at 10/1, showed her big price second here last year was no fluke after her two group 1 wins last two runs.


Booked my flights, I'll be there. Can't wait!!

Nulty

I don't know whos going to win it but it's gonna be a very good race. Looking forward to this years more than last. So sick of hearing about SYT.

Snow Fairy, Nathaniel, Orfevre, Camelot(?), and Danedream will make this one to remember I think. I'd be surprised if Danedream didn't win again but this Japanese horse can run. It'd be good for them to win one.

3ndahalfof6

UrbanSea wrote: »

I think a lot of the value has gone from the market. Think Shareta is a nice price at 10/1, showed her big price second here last year was no fluke after her two group 1 wins last two runs.


Booked my flights, I'll be there. Can't wait!!

Is it possible you could say im your bag handler, PLEASE.

dave3004

Nathaniel is a lay for me.

Snow Fairy is so brave I think she can be there or thereabouts if she doesnt get too far back.

1.Danedream
2.Snow Fairy
3.Shareta

akelly02

Camelot to redeem himself!
followed by Nathaniel who is clearly a better horse over the mile and a half
followed by the great Snow Fairy

swimming in a sea

It will be the race of the year, like it is most years although the King George was very good, it would be the race of the 2000's if Frankel was there

Even though Nathaniel came late in the season and 12f is his best distance he looked like he had gone over the top in Leopardstown, it didn't look like he would beat Snow Fairy that day even if it was over 12f. Maybe they will get him there fresh.

Danedream the 5 length champ and KG winner going off 5/1 sp that could look massive after the race, the usual stable influence there on her price as if o'brien\fabre horse she would be 7/4.

I don't know much about he Japanese horse but I wonder will all the Japanese tourists go for him and we'll have the crazy betting market like Deep impact a few years ago.

chipsdave

I don't know much about he Japanese horse but I wonder will all the Japanese tourists go for him and we'll have the crazy betting market like Deep impact a few years ago.[/QUOTE]

Yes ,the beauty of watching the pari-mutuel pre the start of the great race can be quite fascinating , there was some lovely fancy prices that year on the french Tote and sided with the winner Rail link myself ,seem to remember getting a number of points better than the UK bookies sp that day . The reps from the big firms are always on hand though to ensure there is never a ridiculous return and are prepared to lump on 1,000's on the tote.

Hawk Wing 2

Danedream for me, just remembering back to deep impact, I was there that day, I never saw gambling like it from the Japanese, queing up at the pari-mutuel with thousands and tens of thousands of euro in their hands

Hawk Wing 2

Snow Fairy is out according to the RP

TheMilkyPirate

Yeah Snow fairy out, Shame.

Nulty

Orfevre trainer doesn't sound very confident. Doesn't think the horse has what it takes. Maybe something lost in translation though.

Still think Danedream should win. She's still underestimated - should be clear favourite

tryfix

Orfevre or Danedream are clearly the standouts, with Nathaniel a solid danger who could step up on his previous form to take it.

Orfevre has the look of a Dancing Brave about him, I've been raving about him since the start of the year, when he's good he's awesome.

Danedream has the form, but back to back Arc winners are as scarce as hens teeth. So I'll reluctantly pass her over.

Nathaniel is the solid type of GP1 champion class horse who often wins the Arc.

Outside of those three I can't have Shareta, she's a bit overrated on her beating of fillies and it takes a really special filly to beat the colts.

The 3yos have a great record in the race, but they're a bit of a disaster this year. Camelot isn't good enough. Saonois is more of a 10f horse and I'd fancy Bayrir or Last Train to reverse the Niel form. Masterstroke the other 3yo Fabre horse is interesting, he's been creeping into recognition but at 10/1 he's just another potential 3yo improver out of a batch of crud, so meh.

It's a toss of a coin between the brilliance of Orfevre or the solid form of Nathaniel, I'll go for Orfevre if he's not too short in the betting.

Colonel Sanders

Money for Camelot today although connections have yet to confirm he's an intended runner

boccy23

Nothing to lose and everything to gain. Would love to see it.

Morgans

I think he has loads to lose. The ride can be blamed for the St. Leger and not the fact that is the best 3yo in a god awful year. Has there been just one 3 year old winner of an all-aged event this year?

Place lay for me.

Overthelast

Would have been leaning towards Snow Fairy until she got injured. I was at Leopardstown the day she won. I found it interesting that Lady Rothschild made the trip to Dublin & was creeping around the parade ring that day - Gosden must have expected he would be collecting 1st prize and handing over another trophy to accompany the Lady on her jet ride back home that evening. So I'm now giving a serious look at Nathaniel, hoping they can squeeze a bit more out of him but will decide closer to the day. Looks a serious renewal. Not sure why I don't like Danedream - maybe because its trained in Germany!

Morgans

Dandream could miss the race.

Horse stabled with swamp fever. Danedream may not be allowed to leave germany for 3 months. A serious kick in the chops for connections.

Nulty

Serious kick in the chops for everyone Morgans. The race is quickly deteriorating. Two of the best fillies in the world were in a few days ago and are now more or less out.

dave3004

Would I be right in suggesting that Gosden should have Shareta covered with Nathaniel, or at least know where he stands vs Shareta as she ran vs The Fugue recently enough?

Nulty

If Orfevre or any other horse wins the race now, I'll be suspicious of them cause these two fillies are out. Especially if Nathaniel wins. It'd just be another reason to think Danedream has them all covered.

Who will ride Camelot?

Overthelast

Nulty wrote: »

If Orfevre or any other horse wins the race now, I'll be suspicious of them cause these two fillies are out. Especially if Nathaniel wins. It'd just be another reason to think Danedream has them all covered.

Who will ride Camelot?

Has to be young JOB. Otherwise, Coolmore have made a decision to downgrade him in the pecking order - I see no sign of that.....yet.

Colonel Sanders

RP reported yesterday that Joseph O'Brien will not ride Camelot if he runs

ArmaniJeanss

Overthelast wrote: »

Has to be young JOB. Otherwise, Coolmore have made a decision to downgrade him in the pecking order - I see no sign of that.....yet.

He is unlikely to be able to make the weight that 3yolds run off in 12F all-aged G1s.

Colonel Sanders

Powers refunding bets on Danedream

Colonel Sanders

Nathaniel misses the race too according to the RP

d-gal

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Nathaniel misses the race too according to the RP

Getting a bit freaked out now how good my antepost bets for ovfevre are looking now, have quite a big lump on at 16s and 12s.
If Camelot withdraws then it looks too good to be true..although I would suspect Ovfevre to beat him anyways!

UnitedIrishman

Nathaniel out now.

Orfevre into 11/4 favourite for it.

With Nathaniel gone, looking more and more at Camelot depending on who is riding. Quite a few similarities with Workforce and it's 3 year old year (winner of Derby, beaten by Harbinger in final start before Arc). Even in the way it won the Derby in 2010 was quite like Camelot (beating pacemaker with about a furlong to go). Granted Workforce had the likes of Rewilding and Jan Vermeer behind it in the Derby but eventually I think those behind Camelot will achieve quite a bit in terms of group wins.

Nulty

What a load of ****e! St. Nicholas Abbey is the bet in this now.

longshotvalue

Initial Impressions, Market all wrong..

Camelot walks in if he runs, does any bookie have a with a run price.

both Imperial Monarch & St Nicholas Abbey can easily be placed here depending on ground...

Might change my mind, but its a shoddy race really.

Hawk Wing 2

This is turning into a load of scutter, they are dropping out like flies

UrbanSea

Camelot will definitely run I think.


Was thinking of backing him when I'm there on the PMU given he'll be coupled with St Nic

Edit: JOB rides St Nic

UnitedIrishman

UrbanSea wrote: »

Was thinking of backing him when I'm there on the PMU given he'll be coupled with St Nic.

Just with regards this, what does it mean to be coupled with another horse on the French tote?

UrbanSea

UnitedIrishman wrote: »

Just with regards this, what does it mean to be coupled with another horse on the French tote?

Horses in the same ownership are coupled, so if you back Camelot you'd be backing St Nic and whatever other Coolmore horses are in it.


So if a 200/1 pacemaker in the same ownership were to win you'd still win but be paid at the much lower dividend

Slattsy

So who'll ride Camelot ??

JOB has ridden him in all his races, looks any easy enough ride, though head carriage appears high (sire trait) so im sure they're not too concerned.
Hughes & Fallon dont have rides or will Colm or Seamie step up

If the ground is no worse than good then Camelot wins.
If its soft i'll go for Shareta.

andyman

With Nathaniel out, I'd be going all out to get Buick on Camelot if I was Aidan.

Slattsy

andyman wrote: »

With Nathaniel out, I'd be going all out to get Buick on Camelot if I was Aidan.

Never thought of that actually, just back from footie > may have headed the ball a few too many times ha

Bit of talk floating around the UK that Great Heaven's could be supplemented.....
what this space.

thehape

Slattsy wrote: »

So who'll ride Camelot ??

JOB has ridden him in all his races, looks any easy enough ride, though head carriage appears high (sire trait) so im sure they're not too concerned.
Hughes & Fallon dont have rides or will Colm or Seamie step up

If the ground is no worse than good then Camelot wins.
If its soft i'll go for Shareta.

hi slattsy

both camelot and shareta want good ground .

ground is currently soft and forecasted temperatures have been revised down to 13 degrres from 20 with some showers. fairly confident the ground will be soft.

this rules out camelot and shareta imo .

Slattsy

thehape wrote: »

Slattsy wrote: »

So who'll ride Camelot ??

JOB has ridden him in all his races, looks any easy enough ride, though head carriage appears high (sire trait) so im sure they're not too concerned.
Hughes & Fallon dont have rides or will Colm or Seamie step up

If the ground is no worse than good then Camelot wins.
If its soft i'll go for Shareta.

hi slattsy

both camelot and shareta want good ground .

ground is currently soft and forecasted temperatures have been revised down to 13 degrres from 20 with some showers. fairly confident the ground will be soft.

this rules out camelot and shareta imo .

Thanks.

After Shareta's great run last year I just assumed the ground was soft and that she got through it well.
If the ground is soft then I'd be surprised if Camelot ran.

d-gal

Looks like its not going to be too big a field. I suspect at least 4 to drop out of the initial 18 declared

Colonel Sanders

d-gal wrote: »

Looks like its not going to be too big a field. I suspect at least 4 to drop out of the initial 18 declared

This might actually suit Camelot. If he's ridden with restraint there are often traffic problems in French races. The smaller the field the easier to come from behind

Slattsy

Rumours that Frankie was offered the Camelot ride.....

Pinesky

Slattsy wrote: »

Rumours that Frankie was offered the Camelot ride.....

Interesting scenario given the Sheik's quite public rebuking of Frankie for riding Scorpion in 2005 Leger
With Frankie now clearly No. 2 for Godolphin will he be brave enough to take the ride if offered it

ft9

Slattsy wrote: »

Rumours that Frankie was offered the Camelot ride.....

More than rumours. Aidan O Brien has told the Racingpost Frankie rides Camelot.

Slattsy

Get on :-)

Nulty

Pinesky wrote: »

Interesting scenario given the Sheik's quite public rebuking of Frankie for riding Scorpion in 2005 Leger
With Frankie now clearly No. 2 for Godolphin will he be brave enough to take the ride if offered it

Can you tell me more about this?

Overthelast

I should probably avoid the race given that my first two picks are not turning up but hey, where's the fun in that?

What do people think of Meandre's chances in the Arc? I backed him last year before the Prix Neil. He finished 6th in the main event. Seems to like a bit of cut in the ground (which he might get), is in good form this year, is best price 14's......magic sign were shorter than the rest last night, no wfa allowance but maybe he has improved as a 4yo.......but then there's SNA, who gave him weight in the main event at Longchamp ......aaaaaahhhhhhh! Cannot decide.

That's my mid-week meander........

UrbanSea

Nulty wrote: »

Can you tell me more about this?

I wasn't in to racing then but wasn't it one of the worst kept secrets how unhappy he was riding a Classic winner for Coolmore

Pinesky

Nulty wrote: »

Pinesky wrote: »

Interesting scenario given the Sheik's quite public rebuking of Frankie for riding Scorpion in 2005 Leger
With Frankie now clearly No. 2 for Godolphin will he be brave enough to take the ride if offered it

Can you tell me more about this?

It was widely reported that the Sheik rebuked Frankie for riding & winning the 2005 Leger for Coolmore on the basis that as his retained rider Frankie should not be doing anything to further the cause of the Sheik's No. 1 rival
I'll try and find some links

Pinesky

Pinesky wrote: »

Nulty wrote: »

Pinesky wrote: »

Interesting scenario given the Sheik's quite public rebuking of Frankie for riding Scorpion in 2005 Leger
With Frankie now clearly No. 2 for Godolphin will he be brave enough to take the ride if offered it

Can you tell me more about this?

It was widely reported that the Sheik rebuked Frankie for riding & winning the 2005 Leger for Coolmore on the basis that as his retained rider Frankie should not be doing anything to further the cause of the Sheik's No. 1 rival
I'll try and find some links

Article on daily mail online now re Camelot / Arc which mentions Frankie's apology
Yes I know I wish I had better source material

Hawk Wing 2

Frankie said he'd never ride for Coolmore again after winning on Scorpion in 2005, after being rebuked by the sheik