Autumn/Winter FI Charts 2012/13

MiNdGaM3

Thought these fantasy charts deserved a thread of their own like last winter.
Just remember, these are for fun, and 99% of the time won't work out.

From the distant lands of t384 on todays GFS 12z, we have this!





Quite a few ensembles brewing up some potent northerlies at the very end of their runs:)

weathermaiden

I have nothing to add whatsoever but I wanted to say I am so excited to see an FI chart thread... so thank you for starting this. Even though most of it will never materialise, it's my grownup equivalent of wondering what Santa will bring me and if I'll hear reindeer on the roof this year.

sparrowcar

MiNdGaM3 wrote: »

Thought these fantasy charts deserved a thread of their own like last winter.
Just remember, these are for fun, and 99% of the time won't work out

It's a bit more like 97%

Wolfe_IRE

Below is the tail end of the 12Z ECMWF showing 850hpas (upper air temps). For comparison sake, I have copied the same day (Friday of next week) from the GFS to show how the models can differ 10 days out. That is why the Fantasy Island (FI) model thread is exactly so called.

ECM


GFS


I have been looking at these charts for only three years and admittedly, I spent much of the first year or more ignoring the least desirable outcome and siding with the chart that was most in line with the forecast I wanted to see I.E. wishcasting. Hence, you rarely if ever see a chart in the Winter FI thread depicting mild weather. The only way of looking at any long range chart is to compare it to others for the same time period and to look for divergences and comparisons in the intervening period. There are some who excel at this beyond the 5 day period, and I tip my hat to them.

To put the FI charts into context, we must also consider the wild fluctuations that can occur between one run and the next of any given model. Take a look at the below GFS depictions of where the jetstream will be located on 11 Oct. The first chart from the 6z run today shows the jetstream located well to our north while the second chart from the 12z shows the jetsream more or less over us.


This typifies the challenges that MT faces on a daily basis as he grapples with the long range weather forecasts. The fact that his success ratio is so great is testament to his model reading skills.

tylercollins

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

Below is the tail end of the 12Z ECMWF showing 850hpas (upper air temps). For comparison sake, I have copied the same day (Friday of next week) from the GFS to show how the models can differ 10 days out. That is why the Fantasy Island (FI) model thread is exactly so called.

I have been looking at these charts for only three years and admittedly, I spent much of the first year or more ignoring the least desirable outcome and siding with the chart that was most in line with the forecast I wanted to see I.E. wishcasting. Hence, you rarely if ever see a chart in the Winter FI thread depicting mild weather. The only way of looking at any long range chart is to compare it to others for the same time period and to look for divergences and comparisons in the intervening period. There are some who excel at this beyond the 5 day period, and I tip my hat to them.

To put the FI charts into context, we must also consider the wild fluctuations that can occur between one run and the next of any given model. Take a look at the below GFS depictions of where the jetstream will be located on 11 Oct. The first chart from the 6z run today shows the jetstream located well to our north while the second chart from the 12z shows the jetsream more or less over us.


This typifies the challenges that MT faces on a daily basis as he grapples with the long range weather forecasts. The fact that his success ratio is so great is testament to his model reading skills.

Great to see you back and thanks for the post!

maquiladora

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

GFS

Hi Wolfe. Long time no see.

This chart isn't actually the GFS operational run. It's the control run for the ensembles, which is essentially the operational but run at a lower resolution (the same resolution as the ensembles). At that range it can often look totally different to the operational run.

This is the GFS operational for 240 hours (dynamic link, so will change)

Tom Cruises Left Nut

I love this thread every year !! :pac:

* Heads off chart hunting

srmambo

The T348 on the 12Z GFS chart is beautiful

Sponge Bob

This is THE thread for all Vogan related material. I can tell.

MiNdGaM3

First sign of the fabled "Beast from the East"!?

Elmer Blooker

Who wants an easterly now when the continent isn't even cold yet - a waste.
This is my idea of a FI Autumn / Winter chart. I still hoping for a 20c+ in October and this chart could deliver especially in the Dublin area.

MiNdGaM3

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Who wants an easterly now when the continent isn't even cold yet - a waste.
This is my idea of a FI Autumn / Winter chart. I still hoping for a 20c+ in October and this chart could deliver especially in the Dublin area.

Plenty cold in Scandinavia, which is what we want off a north easterly!

srmambo

12Z shows a very nice looking northwesterly airflow blowing low temperatures down to us.



Unfortunately this is for Sunday 14th so it is albeit deep in FI.

ZX7R

Can anybody tell me witch site that you are finding these long range charts ,i have been useing the site su campu has in his how to read winter charts but none of the charts go so far out in FI thanks

Iancar29

ZX7R wrote: »

Can anybody tell me witch site that you are finding these long range charts ,i have been useing the site su campu has in his how to read winter charts but none of the charts go so far out in FI thanks

Hey ZX7R ( ps why the odd username ?)
GO to http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=1 and for the model type you wish to view , the first set goes to +192 hrs.. then press "suite"... to go to the next set which goes out to +384 hrs


ANd heres the latest ensembles... which certainly still shows a cool down next week ( like CFS hinted a from a few weeks back ) ... could certainly bring more frost back if that where to happen

NIALL D

he/she is a motorbike ian
http://www.google.ie/search?hl=en&sugexp=les%3B&cp=4&gs_id=e&xhr=t&q=zx7r&rlz=1R2GGHP_enIE417&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.&biw=1019&bih=522&wrapid=tljp134921615054906&um=1&ie=UTF-8&tbm=isch&source=og&sa=N&tab=wi&ei=YWhrUJWuGcjIhAfgyYH4Cg

Iancar29

NIALL D wrote: »

he/she is a motorbike ian
http://www.google.ie/search?hl=en&sugexp=les%3B&cp=4&gs_id=e&xhr=t&q=zx7r&rlz=1R2GGHP_enIE417&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.&biw=1019&bih=522&wrapid=tljp134921615054906&um=1&ie=UTF-8&tbm=isch&source=og&sa=N&tab=wi&ei=YWhrUJWuGcjIhAfgyYH4Cg

Drool!! ... surely a person owning that bike doesn't wish snow/ice upon them???? ha

ZX7R

Thanks Iancar ,niall d is correct i got the name from the type of mortor cycle i have ,sadly i dont have as much time for the bikes now ,i have six month old twins ,The weather is a safer hobbie [sometimes:)] Only use her once or twice a week now...

ZX7R

Iancar29 wrote: »

Drool!! ... surely a person owning that bike doesn't wish snow/ice upon them???? ha

Once you have the proper winter gear you normaly dont feel the cold,also reading the weather charts ,reading m.c forcast and reading fellow posters makes bikeing a lot safer all year round most so in the winter, i am surprised there are not more bikers intrested in the weather

srmambo

+129 hour 06Z GFS charts show a northwesterly breeze with very low temperatures



This seems quite likely as it is not too deep in the Fantasy Island area, but it is still advised that it be taken with a pinch of salt.

catch.23

srmambo wrote: »

+129 hour 06Z GFS charts show a northwesterly breeze with very low temperatures



This seems quite likely as it is not too deep in the Fantasy Island area, but it is still advised that it be taken with a pinch of salt.

That chart would give daytime temps around 10C, hardly very low.

catch.23

Iancar29 wrote: »

ANd heres the latest ensembles... which certainly still shows a cool down next week ( like CFS hinted a from a few weeks back ) ... could certainly bring more frost back if that where to happen

I wouldn't get too excited about (air) frost if the 2m temps are anything to go by, maybe -0.1 if some of the more extreme ensembles are right!

catch.23

I love the CFS :P

White Christmas (above 250m ) anyone?!

srmambo

catch.23 wrote: »

I love the CFS :P

White Christmas (above 250m ) anyone?!

What are the chances of these charts being correct about their forecast?

catch.23

srmambo wrote: »

What are the chances of these charts being correct about their forecast?

Practically zero. It's more or less an experimental model, which can occasionally get a trend for a certain weather pattern correct a month or two in advance. Don't set any store in it, the next run could show Christmas day being a balmy 16 degrees!

srmambo

catch.23 wrote: »

Practically zero. It's more or less an experimental model, which can occasionally get a trend for a certain weather pattern correct a month or two in advance. Don't set any store in it, the next run could show Christmas day being a balmy 16 degrees!

Fantasy island to the extreme :P. Thanks for the explanation.

Redsunset

Hi srmambo,

Just want to make sure you understand the charts your posting when you say very low temps approaching.
They are 850 hpa temperatures which is roughly 1500 metres overhead. Depending on air pressure it can be much lower in height. ie low pressure.

Get these temperatures down to minus 8 or more from an prolonged easterly flow to give sea level folks a chance of seeing proper snow and not sleet and then we're looking at something.

And once it comes into reliable timeframe (Debatable) then we're laughing. .

cherryghost

Bit OT but thought it was hilarious.

JMA going for Doomsday today. Anyone noticed anything unusual? :P

Wolfe_IRE

cherryghost wrote: »

Bit OT but thought it was hilarious.

JMA going for Doomsday today. Anyone noticed anything unusual? :P

Despite the freezing Saharan desert and dripping polar icecap, I see nothing unusual about Ireland's mild muck

maquiladora

cherryghost wrote: »

Bit OT but thought it was hilarious.

JMA going for Doomsday today. Anyone noticed anything unusual? :P

Time to pack my summer clothes and book flights to the North Cape.

:cool:

srmambo

maquiladora wrote: »

Time to pack my summer clothes and book flights to the North Cape.

:cool:

The chart shows what looks like Ireland's dream of an Indian summer come true.

Wicklow Weather

20th and potential for a nice autumn storm!!!

Wolfe_IRE

In the last week of this month, the GEFS has been hinting a flood of cold air south over North America to bring an early start to winter there for some. Siberia too is affected.

Interestingly, it remains quite warm elsewhere in Russia and much of southern and eastern Europe.

Iancar29

Strangegravy

[/Quote]

Well... That would knock some leaves off the trees!

maquiladora

Check out the end of FI on the latest GFS. High pressure dominating the Atlantic. High pressure over Greenland. A northerly airflow bring snow into Scotland. -5 uppers on their way down to Ireland and the 528 dam line is already down over Ulster.





Not bad for October 27th eh?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Right Maq, im banking that chart above, it better happen now !

Iancar29

That would fit in nicely for my October forecast

Iancar29 wrote: »

I shall get the ball rolling so!

IMT .... MAX .... MIN .... PRC .... SUN .... xx.x
9.9C 19.2C -3.6C 88% 105% 29.0 mm ....

+ Snowfall on high ground in Northern areas

Iancar29

Iancar29 wrote: »

Made me think of my First proper storm chase! , I miss Winger_PL !

Daniel2590

Strangegravy wrote: »

Well... That would knock some leaves off the trees!

Might not be any trees to knock the leaves off :pac:

cameramonkey

Daniel2590 wrote: »

Might not be any trees to knock the leaves off :pac:

what sort of wind speeds would that weather system generate over Ireland?

Daniel2590

cameramonkey wrote: »

what sort of wind speeds would that weather system generate over Ireland?

Wouldn't be able to tell you myself, maybe one of the more informed members here could :P

maquiladora

cameramonkey wrote: »

what sort of wind speeds would that weather system generate over Ireland?

Hard to tell without seeing a high resolution version of that. It would probably be sub 950mb in reality. 150kph gusts maybe.

Harps

Storms are one thing I'm really going to miss this winter if it follows the recent trend, for whatever reason Donegal seems to have taken a direct hit from every single major storm in recent years. One of my favourite weather experiences to go up to the cliffs and face into the full force of a good storm, its about time one tracked further south though so hopefully we might get lucky yet

maquiladora

If this was on the operational run and we could see a higher res chart, we'd probably see this is actually down to around the 930mb mark.

leahyl

Those vids you guys are putting up are hilarious!!:D This is a particularly good set of runs isn't it? I don't remember us getting these this time last year (and I know it's only FI) and look how the winter turned out - there wasn't one!

Iancar29

True leahly , last year was more of a northerly track with the jet stream much further north , this year though as i said alreadys reminds me alot like 2010 , with the chance of some strong lows hitting the west before hopefully a big northerly just before the end of the month with a brief mild spell then possible.

Certainly an interesting time for model watching .

With the AO in negative atm and due to recover a bit later on , ill be looking then for a reoccurrence of 2010 too of it diving then mid November to get the Winter started!

maquiladora

leahyl wrote: »

Those vids you guys are putting up are hilarious!!:D This is a particularly good set of runs isn't it? I don't remember us getting these this time last year (and I know it's only FI) and look how the winter turned out - there wasn't one!

Well we are just cherrypicking for fun. For every one of those dramatic charts there are 20 other versions of the same run with nothing like that.

Around about the 16th to the 21st seems to be the time when we'll be dealing with low pressue, but whether it will be wet and windy or very wet and windy remains to be seen.

Iancar29

Its always fun seeing graphs go off the charts ...

weatherfiend

A couple of weeks ago I heard Colm Hayes (I thinks that's who it was - came in mid sentence) reading out an article from national geographic about the jet stream being very far out into the Atlantic which was causing those terrible dust storms in Texas and if it didn't come back towards us by I think early October, we'd have a humdinger of a cold winter. Do you guys know anything about that? I have been searching for it but haven't come across it yet. I'd LOVE it to be true

maquiladora

More fun and games on the 12Z GFS.