Tour Championship 3rd leg of FedEx Cup

pistolpetes11

Watching Phil the last few weeks and how his putting has being finding it rhythm I think he will do really well in this ,

Both Rory and Tiger should compete , like the review Im going to post below I would be thinking Rory would be a likely winner if he had not just had a week off and was playing off the back of his 2nd leg win.

Below is a review from Steve Rawlings(Betfair Golf Pundet/Trader) whom I follow for most championships.

Steve looks ahead to the weekend's event in East Lake, Georgia - the tournament that will decide the FedEx Cup.

Tournament History
This will be the 26th staging of the Tour Championship, an event that started out as the Nabisco Championship. Up until 2006, it was contended by the top-30 on the money list but since 2007 it's been played out by the top-30 in the FedEx Cup standings as the series decider.

The FedEx Cup points system has had to be tweaked since its inception and I'm not convinced they'll ever get it right. In 2007 and 2008 excitement surrounding who would take the FedEx Cup was almost non-existent, as both Tiger Woods in 2007 and Vijay Singh twelve months later were just about impossible to catch. Since 2009, the points have been re-set before this event, meaning that the top-five in the FedEx Cup standings, (Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods, Nick Watney, Phil Mickelson and Brandt Snedeker) will win the FedEx Cup, if they win the Tour Championship.

It sounds sensible enough but confusion often reigns. Last year, Bill Haas entered the Tour Championship in 15th place on the FedEx Cup standings and after he'd beaten Hunter Mahan in a playoff the first thing he asked was "who won the FedEx Cup?" unaware it was him!

Here's a look at all the different scenarios. Fingers, toes, abacus and calculator all required.

First Five FedEx Cup Winners
2011 - Bill Haas
2010 - Jim Furyk
2009 - Tiger Woods
2008 - Vijay Singh
2007 - Tiger Woods

Venue
East Lake Golf Club, Atlanta, Georgia

Course Details
Par 70, 7,319 yards
Stroke index in 2011 - 69.02
Dating back to 1904, East Lake has been remodelled by some renowned architects over the years. In 1913 Donald Ross completely reworked the course and then George Cobb tinkered with the place before the 1963 Ryder Cup. The club was neglected after that though, when the majority of its members switched to the nearby Atlanta Athletic Club, but it was restored once again in 1994 by Rees Jones and it's thrived ever since.

In 2007, Zach Johnson shot the course record of 60 and Tiger Woods amassed an incredible 23 under-par total but it's been much tougher since, thanks to a change to the greens. With a move in the calendar to late September, the committee chose to change the greens to Bermuda and the affect has been dramatic. Mickelson's nine under-par in 2009 is the lowest winning score since then.

Useful Sites
Course Site
Course Tour
Course Map
Tee Times

TV Coverage
Live on Sky all four days. 6.00pm on Thursday and Friday, 3.00pm on Saturday and 4.30pm on Sunday

Last Five Winners
2011 - Bill Haas -8 (playoff)
2010 - Jim Furyk -8
2009 - Phil Mickelson -9
2008 - Camilo Villegas -7 (playoff)
2007 - Tiger Woods -23

What will it take to win the Tour Championship?
I've analysed the stats extensively and I've read lots of different theories. Driving accuracy is sited as very important but bearing in mind that only 30 players contest the event, Luke Donald and Aaron Baddeley finished tied third last year when both were ranked tied 24th for DA. Donald managed second place a year earlier when only ranked tied 16th for DA and Phil Mickelson was beaten by a solitary stroke in 2008 when ranked tied 25th and won it a year later ranked tied 12th for DA. I'm not convinced.

The four winners since the greens were changed are diverse enough and it's hard to see an angle in but an ability to putt on Bermuda and make lots of birdies is probably the most important requirement.

Three of the five that hold their FedEx fate in their own hands are big-time players but I wouldn't be over-confident about Watney and Snedeker this week. Last year, Luke Donald was the only one of the top-five heading into the Tour Championship to even compete and FedEx Cup nerves can certainly play a part.

In-Play Tactics
A fast start here isn't essential and one or two winners have come from some way back, which is probably due the small field.

As stated above, FedEx Cup nerves will be an issue. How big an issue is debatable but it's worth bearing in mind that it's possible someone could be in a position whereby second or even third in the tournament still wins then the FedEx Cup and if that scenario arises, how hard will they go for the event win?

Market Leaders
I'm not nearly as bullish about Rory McIlroy here as I was a fortnight ago before his win in the BMW Championship. The week off will in all likelihood inconvenience more than it will help and this is his first look at East Lake too. Add in the additional pressure of winning the FedEx Cup and there's no value to be had in him at 5.8 and I wouldn't be in a rush to argue against anyone wanting to lay him in the FedEx Cup winner market at a shade over 3.0 either.

Tiger Woods is a more tempting proposition at a point bigger but as I pointed out in my de-brief two weeks ago, there's something not quite right with Woods when he's been in the mix of late and I'm happy to let him go un-backed too.

Paul Krishnamurty makes a very compelling case for backing him to win the FedEx Cup and if you do like Tiger this week then that looks the sensible way to go.

Selections
I think this is a trappy contest and I could have happily left it alone but I've talked myself into a few bets, though they're all modest.

Phil Michelson won here before the latest changes, way back in 2000, but he appears to like the new greens in particular.

He topped the putting stats in 2008 when missing out on the playoff by a stroke and he was ranked 2nd for putting the following year when he won. Incidently, he made a quadruple-bogey on day one on his way to an opening 73, which left him seven off the lead that year but he still went on to win the event by three!

With his game in disarray, he trailed in back in a tie for 22nd when defending in 2010 but he still ranked third for putting. Last year was very different though. After a sustained period of poor putting he pitched up at East Lake with a long putter and averaged over 32 putts per day, yet he still, somehow, only lost by four strokes.

Now that he has a putting stroke that's working (some sort of variation of the claw-grip) I can see him being bang there again this week. He's finished in the top-four in his last two events and more importantly, he's ranked in the top-five for putting.

I've also backed him in the FedEx Cup market at a slightly reduced price, as he can finish third in the Tour Championship and yet still win the FedEx Cup.

When Keegan Bradley turned up at East Lake for the first time twelve months ago, still aglow following his win at the PGA Championship at nearby Atlanta Athletic Club, he shot an opening round 64 to lead by two. He couldn't break 70 after that but he's shown his hand. We know he can play the course, that he has found memories of the state and that he's a fine putter on Bermuda. I thought 48.0 was just about big enough to risk a few pounds.

Last and possibly least, is the only rookie to make the field, John Huh. I really rate Huh and can see him being quite a player in the years to come. Like Bradley, he too handles Bermuda well and at a huge price he could turn out to be a sporting pick.

Selections:
Phil Mickelson to win the FedEx Cup @ 13.5
And to win the Tour Championship:
Phil Mickelson @ 15.0
Keegan Bradley @ 48.0
John Huh @ 140.0

redzerdrog

When does this start?

SnowDrifts

redzerdrog wrote: »

When does this start?

Tonight. Sky 6pm.

charlieIRL

SnowDrifts wrote: »

Tonight. Sky 6pm.

With only 30 playing imagine what the adds are going to be like? Dreading it.

SnowDrifts

charlieIRL wrote: »

With only 30 playing imagine what the adds are going to be like? Dreading it.

Think they are all too short for my liking. Was thinking about putting something small on Phil for all of the reasons posted in the OP. Would like to see him take the win.

RikkFlair

charlieIRL wrote: »

With only 30 playing imagine what the adds are going to be like? Dreading it.

Plenty of ads & plenty of Montys Ryder Cup memories

redzerdrog

fancy tiger big time for this and he will be my main bat with a small saver on mickelson.

Cant have rory for this its a course he never played before and to win 3 on the trot would be remarkable

kiers47

SnowDrifts wrote: »

Think they are all too short for my liking. Was thinking about putting something small on Phil for all of the reasons posted in the OP. Would like to see him take the win.

I think you misread charlie's post.

I think the betting represents decent enough value to be honest. Apart from the favourites the rest of the field represents serious value. The likes of Keegan Bradley/Webb Simpson/Rickie Fowler/Ernie Els to name a few were all available to back at 50+ at 1 stage or another on betfair during the week.

Saying that Tiger's Record in this tournament speaks for itself and i think he represents serious value in the top 4 market at 2.44 on betfair!!

SnowDrifts

kiers47 wrote: »

I think you misread charlie's post.

Ha, that I did! Hopefully wont make too much of a difference regarding adds as they normally only focus in on a select number of groups anyway. Really couldn't stick any more adverts than sky already have.

Really looking forward to this. There are so many players in that 30 who are on great form at the moment. Hope it lives up to expectations.

RikkFlair

Els & Scott are paired together, wonder if they'll talk about the Open

the lawman

Correct me if I'm wrong but are the only folks who can win the 10Million Woods, Rory, Phil, Brandt and Nick?

The others can only win the overall event but not the big prize money?

L.O.F.T

the lawman wrote: »

Correct me if I'm wrong but are the only folks who can win the 10Million Woods, Rory, Phil, Brandt and Nick?

The others can only win the overall event but not the big prize money?

Players outside the top five have a mathematical chance of winning the 10 million depending on how those in the top 5 finish.

http://www.pgatour.com/2012/fedexcup/09/10/winning-scenarios/index.html

big_drive

Tiger and McIlroy playing at 1.55

Is that 6.55 our time? I'm presuming 5 hour time difference, that correct?

the lawman

big_drive wrote: »

Tiger and McIlroy playing at 1.55

Is that 6.55 our time? I'm presuming 5 hour time difference, that correct?

That's correct bigdrive.

staker

pga.com have it advertised live on the GC, dunno if it works. One thing worse than watching golf on SKy is watching it on TGC

slave1

TGC = Sky as Sky get their feed from TGC
I watched a bit of it on the PGA website and it was fine, good quality and a legit source.
Getting back to the golf Tiger was very solid, a lot of putts left around the hole, for me Tiger has lost on Saturdays so that's what I'm looking forward to most.

AldilaMan

Any pairings info and tee times. I can't see anything on PGATOUR.COM

I heard last night that Woods and McIlroy aren't playing to gether today so I'm assuming it's order of merit based on scores. Woods and Rose last out ?

SnowDrifts

Here are the tee times

http://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/r060/tee-times.html

durkadurka

Furyk opens with seven threes

charlieIRL

Suprised at the lack of comments here!

Shaping up to for two more great days of golf. Great that there's not too many odds, sorry adds !!!!

TW is struggling big time at the moment. Hopefully he can turn it around tomorrow (am not a TW fan at all but hate to see a golfer struggling)

As it stands currently Rory is still on to win even though he's 7th, hopefully he can move on tomorrow and Sunday and finish strong.

Rikand

cant talk - glued to the TV

charlieIRL

Rickylovesuall wrote: »

cant talk - glued to the TV

shockin missed putt from Laura Davies!!!!

sydthebeat

tiger was poor today, i think thats his chance gone... a four shot swing with rory in the space of 30 seconds on the eighth.

charlieIRL

sydthebeat wrote: »

tiger was poor today, i think thats his chance gone... a four shot swing with rory in the space of 30 seconds on the eighth.

hard to know, another Tiger might show up tomorrow.

Then again, his driving, his second shot and his putting were very inconsistent today, if it was one part of his game then (I presume) a good session on range might help but to have so many not working would worry you.

Wonder how much is in his head?

redhill

Not looking too bad for Rory at the moment, he's ahead of all the guys in the FedEx top 5 who can win it outright with a victory in this tourney and most of the guys at the top of the leaderboard are way down the rankings. Dustin Johnson is the only one who looks dangerous for the 10 million(at this stage) but he wud have to win the tourney which is no given.
Tiger was a shambles on the back 9 last nite, how a top golfer can do a simple thing like lose his balance so much surprises me.still work to be done...

staker

redhill wrote: »

Not looking too bad for Rory at the moment, he's ahead of all the guys in the FedEx top 5 who can win it outright with a victory in this tourney and most of the guys at the top of the leaderboard are way down the rankings. Dustin Johnson is the only one who looks dangerous for the 10 million(at this stage) but he wud have to win the tourney which is no given.
Tiger was a shambles on the back 9 last nite, how a top golfer can do a simple thing like lose his balance so much surprises me.still work to be done...

Missed that! What did he do?

Starting at 5 today on SS

link_2007

Nice to see a good few golfers getting some coverage.

SuprSi

367 yard drive from Rory!!

SuprSi

Rory missing a stupid putt but showing his form and in good shape so far.

slave1

How Tiger pulled off that round yesterday, he played some shocking stuff.
Even though this is the finale it's nowhere near the quality of golf from two weeks ago, Tiger V's Rory was great to watch, with neither burning it up the allure is not the same

AldilaMan

charlieIRL wrote: »

Suprised at the lack of comments here!

Shaping up to for two more great days of golf. Great that there's not too many odds, sorry adds !!!!

TW is struggling big time at the moment. Hopefully he can turn it around tomorrow (am not a TW fan at all but hate to see a golfer struggling)

As it stands currently Rory is still on to win even though he's 7th, hopefully he can move on tomorrow and Sunday and finish strong.

Here's a few for you:

Luke Donald €10e/w 16/1 4 places (still a chance of a place)
Zach Johnson €5e/w 33/1 4 places (still a chance of a place)
Rory McIlroy €50 win 5/1
Rory McIlroy €20 win 13/2 (after round 1)
Brant Snedeker €10 e/w 28/1 (after round 1)

Interesting night ahead !!

Trampas

i don't agree with the fed ex set up.

Brandt Snedeker who has had 3 t10 since march can win the pot of cash is wrong but the usa market love it so that all that matters

redarmy

I'm the cat with the bass and drum

GreeBo

redarmy wrote: »

I'm the cat with the bass and drum

what?

FixdePitchmark

Rory has made a balls of this. :mad::(:cool:

Why is he so hot and cold ?

RikkFlair

Not a huge surprise that he's ran out of steam after winning 3 out of 4 events

Speak Now

Delighted for Snedeker, fair play to him.

FixdePitchmark

It is a bit of a let down this ?

The lad has to explain what this is about before he gives the trophy ?????


I know £$£$£$£$£$£$£$£$£$£$£$£$£$£$£$£$£$£$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

AldilaMan

AldilaMan wrote: »

Here's a few for you:

Luke Donald €10e/w 16/1 4 places (still a chance of a place)
Zach Johnson €5e/w 33/1 4 places (still a chance of a place)
Rory McIlroy €50 win 5/1
Rory McIlroy €20 win 13/2 (after round 1)
Brant Snedeker €10 e/w 28/1 (after round 1)

Interesting night ahead !!

!

FixdePitchmark

AldilaMan wrote: »

Thanks for the warning Greebore but I'll take the money. How do **** like you become moderators. Yeah ban me for life but with assholes like you as a moderator take me out of my misery,

Brant - you're the man !!

Greenbore (or is it Greenbo) PRICK (but probably a small prick)

Use your power PRICK

:eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:

Best of luck AldilaMan.

Great bet.

Rikand

Great bets!

enjoy the holiday


Delighted for Brandt. He won it well. Good to see Luke and Justin coming into form at the right time too. We need them for the Ryder Cup

qwabercd

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

Rory has made a balls of this. :mad::(:cool:

Why is he so hot and cold ?

Hot and cold? Jesus H Christ. Do people really expect him to win every week?

He's had a great season but can't be expected to play flawless golf every single week. It's not as if he had a disaster of a week, still finished t10 and if weren't for the mad fed-ex cup points system he would've won it. Some people are only happy when complaining.

ForeRight

So long aldilaman.

AldilaMan

Bye everyone

ForeRight

AldilaMan wrote: »

Bye everyone

You still here

Get all your posts in this morning before the gaffer logs on and unleashes the ban hammer

AldilaMan

!

ForeRight

AldilaMan wrote: »

What a forum. You can't even talk about having a bet on Golf. Jesus, Mary and Joseph !!

Why would you be having a bet on Jesus Mary and Joseph though?

charlieIRL

AldilaMan wrote: »

Bye everyone

Too right, need for that crap. Enjoy your break.

GreeBo

charlieIRL wrote: »

Too right, no need for that crap. Enjoy your break.

Make that a permanent vacation.

Note to everybody else:
(i.e. FixdePitchmark, ForeRight & Rickylovesuall)

Please do NOT discuss moderator actions or comment on thread about posts like AldilaMan's. Report them and leave them to moderators. Next time someone comments on thread they will receive an infraction.
It may seem harmless but it does nothing to help and only makes this job harder and inflames the situation.

There will be no more warnings on this.

Nedser101

Looks like Rory didn't have he luck of the Irish last night ,even if he did were the green .he showed his true colours last week!

rrpc

qwabercd wrote: »

Hot and cold? Jesus H Christ. Do people really expect him to win every week?

He's had a great season but can't be expected to play flawless golf every single week. It's not as if he had a disaster of a week, still finished t10 and if weren't for the mad fed-ex cup points system he would've won it. Some people are only happy when complaining.

The points system is still badly flawed. It's heavily weighted towards the playoffs which seems to be counterproductive towards the regular season.

Players can cherry pick a couple of events in the regular season and just concentrate on the playoffs to get through to the tour championship. Giving a 5x multiplier for the first three playoffs seems unnecessary, especially since all those points are discarded for the tour championship.

I know they're trying not to have an anti-climax for the last tournament, but there's no reward for the player who plays and does well in the regular events.