Petroneft Resources

Grecco

This is proving a tough share to call. I tried to get in as low as I thought it would go @ 3.8p only to see it go down as low as 2.7p at one stage.
I think calling an exit point is going to be just as difficult, a refinance will change this share completely but have they really got the issues with the Oil in th ground sorted ?
Its a share that could be worth 10 times the current value if they can prove that they can pump the Oil, until then its going to be a bumpy ride

Merelyme

Grecco wrote: »

This is proving a tough share to call. I tried to get in as low as I thought it would go @ 3.8p only to see it go down as low as 2.7p at one stage.
I think calling an exit point is going to be just as difficult, a refinance will change this share completely but have they really got the issues with the Oil in th ground sorted ?
Its a share that could be worth 10 times the current value if they can prove that they can pump the Oil, until then its going to be a bumpy ride

This was a comment (official) from the Chairman on 30/09/13:

"The first half of 2013 was a busy period for the Company. Some production issues were resolved leading to more stable production in recent months," said chairman David Golder in a statement.

"Since the Annual General Meeting on 11 September we have continued to make good progress on re-financing the Company and I hope to be able to update shareholders in detail on this point in the coming weeks," he added. Ends.

They have increased bopd from the previous half-year from 2,500 to 2,600+. Marginal increase at best but everything seems to be hanging on the refinance/farm-out. I doubt he would mislead the markets with comments like the above - comments he had already made at the AGM on 11/09/13 (without mentioning the 'coming weeks' bit). Then again I may be being naive.

Cute Hoor

Merelyme wrote: »

This was a comment (official) from the Chairman on 30/09/13:

"The first half of 2013 was a busy period for the Company. Some production issues were resolved leading to more stable production in recent months," said chairman David Golder in a statement.

"Since the Annual General Meeting on 11 September we have continued to make good progress on re-financing the Company and I hope to be able to update shareholders in detail on this point in the coming weeks," he added. Ends.

Senior execs at companies have a way of making comments, but this must surely be the ultimate non-comment of all time.

"The first half of 2013 was a busy period for the Company" - what does this mean, it could have something to do with producing oil or that everybody in the company played No Limit Texas Hold Em night and day for 6 months

"Some production issues were resolved" - Oh yea? was this .000001% of the 'production issues', 50%, or 99%, how many issues, how many resolved, how big are the remaining issues

"leading to more stable production" - produced 1 BOPD per day every day, or 1 million BOPD per day every day??

"we have continued to make good progress on re-financing the Company" - does this mean that re-financing is 1 week away or 10 years away

"hope" - springs eternal.

I have no knowledge of or interest in Petroneft, I just found that statement by the Chairman amusing. Best of luck to everybody invested in it

Gman1987

Grecco wrote: »

This is proving a tough share to call. I tried to get in as low as I thought it would go @ 3.8p only to see it go down as low as 2.7p at one stage.
I think calling an exit point is going to be just as difficult, a refinance will change this share completely but have they really got the issues with the Oil in th ground sorted ?
Its a share that could be worth 10 times the current value if they can prove that they can pump the Oil, until then its going to be a bumpy ride

I agree Greeco, its a good share to be in if you got in low due to their asset values. But like you said above the company itself is not doing anything to help the share price. Production has remained almost unchanged and progress on refinancing/farm out is very slow. They are also very poor at keeping they share holders updated on news within the company

Merelyme

Cute Hoor wrote: »

Senior execs at companies have a way of making comments, but this must surely be the ultimate non-comment of all time.

"The first half of 2013 was a busy period for the Company" - what does this mean, it could have something to do with producing oil or that everybody in the company played No Limit Texas Hold Em night and day for 6 months

"Some production issues were resolved" - Oh yea? was this .000001% of the 'production issues', 50%, or 99%, how many issues, how many resolved, how big are the remaining issues

"leading to more stable production" - produced 1 BOPD per day every day, or 1 million BOPD per day every day??

"we have continued to make good progress on re-financing the Company" - does this mean that re-financing is 1 week away or 10 years away

"hope" - springs eternal.

I have no knowledge of or interest in Petroneft, I just found that statement by the Chairman amusing. Best of luck to everybody invested in it

His comments were a follow-up to their AGM which is detailed on their website. It makes more sense if read in that sense. The reason I posted his later comments was because of a reference I made to them in an earlier post. I was replying to Grecco's question about their production problems last year and earlier this year.

Merelyme

Ger1987 wrote: »

I agree Greeco, its a good share to be in if you got in low due to their asset values. But like you said above the company itself is not doing anything to help the share price. Production has remained almost unchanged and progress on refinancing/farm out is very slow. They are also very poor at keeping they share holders updated on news within the company

That's my biggest problem with them.

Cute Hoor

Merelyme wrote: »

Davy's Stockbrokers predicted in the last 7 days that this share will outperform.

Beware stockbrokers making predictions.

You can see some of Davy's previous predictions for Petroneft here, they've always been pretty bullish!!!

http://www.brokerforecasts.com/companies/PTR

Cute Hoor

Merelyme wrote: »

His comments were a follow-up to their AGM which is detailed on their website. It makes more sense if read in that sense. The reason I posted his later comments was because of a reference I made to them in an earlier post. I was replying to Grecco's question about their production problems last year and earlier this year.

Fair enough Merelyme, I hadn't looked at the website obviously but that statement from the Chair was a serious non-statement (in it's own right)

Merelyme

Cute Hoor wrote: »

Fair enough Merelyme, I hadn't looked at the website obviously but that statement from the Chair was a serious non-statement (in it's own right)

Yeh. Even as a back-up to the AGM comments it's fairly unconvincing. The thing about Petroneft is that the worst case scenario is that they're taken over by a bigger company. As I believe the share price deal would be over 5.6c (today's closing price) and that at such a low price one would only lose a small amount even if the share price deal in a takeover was slightly lower, I'm convinced this is a superb buy. I'm excluding a refinance and excluding a farm-out in this worst case scenario and one or both of these options whilst not quite guaranteed are extremely likely. In that case the sp goes up maybe as high as 10c. I got them at 4c so I may just be an eternal optimist! Caveat emptor.

Grecco

I`ll take the chairmans comments with a large pinch of salt. it really boils down to the Oil production. A lot of ifs here...
If they can keep production stable then the Sp will recover slowly
If they get a refinance then again the Sp will recover even more quickly
If they can pump more Oil, say 5000bopd+ then the Sp will rocket north
If production falls back then it could mean no refinance and the end of the road will be nigh

Merelyme

I think the refinance has to come before the increased oil production. They have the sites but not the money!

Dubh Geannain

"The coming weeks". A lovely statement not limited by such a trivial thing as time. Every week in the future is a coming week.

If he had said "before X", it would have been more definitive. Such as before the end of the year or end of November etc.

gordongekko

Dubh Geannain wrote: »

"The coming weeks". A lovely statement not limited by such a trivial thing as time. Every week in the future is a coming week.

If he had said "before X", it would have been more definitive. Such as before the end of the year or end of November etc.

how could he say that. These deals can often fall down at the last minute over trivial details.

Dubh Geannain

gordongekko wrote: »

how could he say that. These deals can often fall down at the last minute over trivial details.

He wasn't saying that a deal would be done in the coming weeks. He said he'd update shareholders.

I don't expect to have a definitive date on the deal being done for obvious reasons such as what you've just stated. It is a negotiation after all.

Merelyme

Another week goes by without some sort of announcement regarding refinancing/farm-out. Oh well, there's always next week.

Dubh Geannain

Anyone watching today?

27-Nov-1310:48:04 4.74 2921,758,889 Buy* 1.032MO


27-Nov-1310:46:54 4.74 2910,241,111 Buy* 485.73kO


27-Nov-1310:45:04 4.74 2932,000,000 Buy* 1.518MO

Grawns

Dubh Geannain wrote: »

Anyone watching today?

Me What do you make of it?

Dubh Geannain

Grawns wrote: »

Me What do you make of it?

There's no news that I can see. So someone (Takeover candidate, Director, II?) has taken it upon themselves to take up a large holding in the company.

645m shares in issue.
21,758,889, 10,241,111 & 32,000,000 bought this morning.

That's 10% of the company.

There have been similar large trades that have driven the last 2 major rises from the £2 range. For lesser amounts value wise because of the lower share price at the time.

This is my pie in the sky guess. Someone has been accumulating a not so small holding over the last couple of months.

Grawns

Interesting! No news at all in the pipeline so takeover is a good guess.

Merelyme

Been watching carefully, Dubh. I read on one of the share chat sites that a trader I respect thinks it has been the habit of Petroneft to usually make announcements on the last Thursday of any given month. I won't hold my breath yet but there's definitely something going on.

I hope your 'buy' went through eventually! I bought on the ISEQ at 4c so it's looking good.

Dubh Geannain

RNS:

PetroNeft received notification on 28 November 2013 from Natlata Partners Limited that as of 27 November 2013 it holds an aggregate interest in 76,471,536 ordinary shares of €0.01 each which represents 11.86%* of the issued share capital of PetroNeft.

*This percentage shareholding is based on a shares in issue figure of 644,920,275 ordinary shares.

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=news&code=cotn:PTR.L&action=article&articleid=9181730

Natlata Partners have gone from 3% to 6% to 11.8% since September.

Grecco

RNS out

http://www.investegate.co.uk/petroneft-resources/rns/operations-update/201312030700064855U/

Merelyme

Continued progress is being made on both the re-financing and planned farmout of Licence 61. While progress has been slower than expected we continue to move forward on both fronts, particularly as regards the re-financing with additional parties having shown interest since our last announcement.

Dennis Francis, Chief Executive Officer of PetroNeft Resources plc, commented:
"We are pleased with this agreement with our drilling contractor (TBNG) which allows us to continue with our drilling programme in a cost effective manner for the benefit of our shareholders.

We continue to make encouraging progress on the re-financing and farmout fronts and we appreciate shareholders continued patience and support while these negotiations are completed."

I'm aware of the possible negatives that can be drawn from this (or any) RNS but I have to say I find this re-affirming and very positive.

Merelyme

Interesting article about Petroneft from Oilbarrel today (09/12/13): http://oilbarrel.com/news/winter-arrives-in-russia-and-petroneft-resources-gets-busy-to-make-up-ground-lost-over-the-summer-as-critical-refinancing-looms

Merelyme

RNS from Petroneft today:


http://www.oilvoice.com/n/PetroNeft_announces_farmout_negotiations_well_advanced_with_an_international_oil_company/6f95fb88605f.aspx#gsc.tab=0

Already a 100,000 share purchase on the ISEQ (08:03).

Dubh Geannain

It reads as very positive to me compared to previous releases.

Just my opinion but I'd say the refinancing is heavily dependant on production recovering to what the financiers would see as sustainable levels. Back above 2300 bopd means it's going in the right direction but it obviously needs to be significantly higher. With further workovers planned they have to thread carefully.

Merelyme

Dubh Geannain wrote: »

It reads as very positive to me compared to previous releases.

Just my opinion but I'd say the refinancing is heavily dependant on production recovering to what the financiers would see as sustainable levels. Back above 2300 bopd means it's going in the right direction but it obviously needs to be significantly higher. With further workovers planned they have to thread carefully.

Indeed, Dubh. It's quite precarious but seems still to be a good bet. Up over 10% on the LSE at the time of writing (14%+ on the ISEQ). More importantly buys are outdoing sells considerably for the last 8 working days. The elusive Natlata Partners seem to be gobbling up shares too. There appears to be lots going on in the background.

That all said, with me having bought at 4c and the share price sitting at 6.5c now, I can't deny I'm very tempted to sell. But I won't! Yet.

Dubh Geannain

Dubh Geannain wrote: »

RNS:



http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=news&code=cotn:PTR.L&action=article&articleid=9181730

Natlata Partners have gone from 3% to 6% to 11.8% since September.

Now at 16.02% (as per RNS today) and I still can't find out who exactly they are. Either way they have managed to accumulate a sizeable holding at what could turn out to be bargain prices.

Comordha

Yes - looks like they are positioning to take it out on an historically cheap price. Name sounds Russian, I wonder were they previously involved in bidding process and saw the potential of the blocks they own on their books? Directors will need to acknowledge this soon.

Merelyme

Nobody seems to know who Natlata Partners are. Assuming they are representing either their own interests or are acting on someone's behalf, it seems positive that somebody sees the shares as very buyable. I strongly suspect an RNS from Petroneft very soon (by the end of next week) but they are notoriously slow to pass on news.