Learn from my mistakes

Randomfriend

Right that €10 thing really isn't suiting me, I might come back to it again in a while but I was being too much of an impatient tit with it, so I decided I'll make an actual log so I can keep better track of my betting habits, and maybe people can point out to me where I'm going wrong the odd time I make a stupid decision!

So I've started off with a bank of €50 euro, I made 1/2 bets already this morning so that now stands at €65.. Every time I hit €100 I'll remove 50, for the first €300 or so, (if I get that far) from then on I'll withdraw slightly less frequently but bigger amounts.

Bet #1: Norwegian Adeccoligaen (Div 2.)

Hødd v Notodden FK to win @1/3 €25 returns €33.33

As was discussed in the main footie tips forum, Notodden are missing a whole host of players, including all of their main defenders, Hødd are the home side and also currently stand above them in the league with a much better GD, so it looks a decent enough bet to me.

Also considering doing an Everton/Hødd double @1.61 but am wary of putting all my eggs in the Hødd basket.

Randomfriend

Bet #2:

Under 6.5 goals in Cameroon 3-1 Maldives @ 1/8
Total stake for this bet: €40.00
Potential Return: €45.00

Randomfriend

Randomfriend wrote: »

Bet #2:

Under 6.5 goals in Cameroon 3-1 Maldives @ 1/8
Total stake for this bet: €40.00
Potential Return: €45.00

Win! Finished 3-1
Balance: €45.00

Bet #3:

Everton v Leyton Orient @ 1/6
Total stake for this bet: €45.00
Potential Return: €52.50

Randomfriend

Randomfriend wrote: »

Bet #1: Norwegian Adeccoligaen (Div 2.)

Hødd v Notodden FK to win @1/3 €25 returns €33.33

Win! 2-1 for Hødd who also missed a penalty, 88th minute winner is not good for the blood preasure!

Bank: €33.33

Bet 4:

Celtic V Helsingborg +3 @1/6
Total stake for this bet: €33.33
Potential Return: €38.88

conormccarthy92

Randomfriend wrote: »

[

Celtic V Helsingborg +3 @1/6
Total stake for this bet: €33.33
Potential Return: €38.88

do you have any reasoning behind this bet ? Celtic won the 1st leg 2-0 and they were away for that leg . Are they resting players this match ? just curious

Randomfriend

Randomfriend wrote: »

Celtic V Helsingborg +3 @1/6
Total stake for this bet: €33.33
Potential Return: €38.88

Everton v Leyton Orient @ 1/6
Total stake for this bet: €45.00
Potential Return: €52.50

Both Win!
Balance:€91.39

Randomfriend

conormccarthy92 wrote: »

do you have any reasoning behind this bet ? Celtic won the 1st leg 2-0 and they were away for that leg . Are they resting players this match ? just curious

Celtic haven't won a game by a 3 goal margin yet this season, they also really didn't deserve to win by two goals in Sweden I expected Celtic to win just not by more than two goals, and thankfully I was correct

Randomfriend

Bet #5:

Real Madrid 2-1 Barcelona
4+ Goals @1/9
Total stake for this bet: €26.49
Potential Return: €29.43

Messed up my math horribly, was meant to bet enough to even up the return to €30 but c'est la vie as long as I win, I won't care!

areyawell

Why betting so big for little return? This system will not work and will eventually get screwed.

OnTheCounter

Risking a small amount of money to quickly run it up to a decent starting bankroll. Same reason people buy scratchcards.

Good luck.

If you kept a bit more patient and stuck to about 5 bets a week it wouldnt be too long before you hit a grand.

Randomfriend

areyawell wrote: »

Why betting so big for little return? This system will not work and will eventually get screwed.

One goal in 45 minutes of football between two of the greatest attacking teams in the world isn't too much to ask for really, Chances are I'll lose this bet now, but there's not a sane man alive that would have made any substantial bet on the scores staying the way they were at half time. I just place bets based on what I expect to happen, and yes it does work, as long as your correct substantially more often then your wrong(unlucky), and generally I have been.

areyawell

Randomfriend wrote: »

One goal in 45 minutes of football between two of the greatest attacking teams in the world isn't too much to ask for really, Chances are I'll lose this bet now, but there's not a sane man alive that would have made any substantial bet on the scores staying the way they were at half time. I just place bets based on what I expect to happen, and yes it does work, as long as your correct substantially more often then your wrong(unlucky), and generally I have been.

you are risking a large amount of bankroll to win a few euro. you will have to place maybe 7 or 8 bets of the same amount you lost to win this money back. In those 7 or 8 bets you have to hope that nothing goes wrong to win back the money. I worked for a betting exchange. Believe me this system does not work! Unless you get very lucky for a while but will eventually lose everything!

Randomfriend

OnTheCounter wrote: »

If you kept a bit more patient and stuck to about 5 bets a week it wouldnt be too long before you hit a grand.

Patience can always be an issue alright

areyawell wrote: »

you are risking a large amount of bankroll to win a few euro. you will have to place maybe 7 or 8 bets of the same amount you lost to win this money back. In those 7 or 8 bets you have to hope that nothing goes wrong to win back the money. I worked for a betting exchange. Believe me this system does not work! Unless you get very lucky for a while but will eventually lose everything!

You lose everything by chasing bets after a loss and going all in, I won't be letting myself do that, I appreciate the advice thou. I am actually thinking about the bets I'm making, I don't just see short odds and think, ''oh that must be a sure bet.''

Randomfriend

Bet #6:
Hapoel Tel Aviv v Dudelange
Steaua Bucharest v Ekranas
Marseille v Sheriff Tiraspol

Total stake for this bet: €24.90
Potential Return: €38.13

All three away teams are far weaker than their opposition and have pretty crappy away records in Europe, I've watched them all play this season and are all dire.

Randomfriend

Bet #7:

Rosenborg and draw v Legia Warsaw
Dila Gori v Marítimo and draw

Total stake for this bet: €15.00
Potential Return: €21.49


I've a few more irons in the fire too for later..

Randomfriend

Bet #8:

Levante v Motherwell
Rangers v Falkirk
Total stake for this bet: €25.00
Potential Return: €37.50

Motherwell are terrible and so are Falkirk, not that rangers are much better, however, they've been very much up for all their home games so far, and expect more of the same. They beat Falkirk 1-0 away from home in the Challenge cup thing last week, while Falkirk have had a pretty crap start to the season by all accounts.

Randomfriend

Randomfriend wrote: »

Bet #6:
Hapoel Tel Aviv v Dudelange Win
Steaua Bucharest v Ekranas Win
Marseille v Sheriff Tiraspol

Marseille game 0-0 after 10 minutes

Randomfriend wrote: »

Bet #7:
Rosenborg and draw v Legia Warsaw
Dila Gori v Marítimo and draw
I've a few more irons in the fire too for later..

Win! Both Maritimo and Rosenborg won

Balance: €21.49

Randomfriend

Marseille the hoorbags drew 0-0 so ruined the 3 game bet, but just before Hearts scored I threw the 21 quid I won from the first bet on them for double chance at something around 19/20, so I won a bit of money back from that

Randomfriend wrote: »

Bet #8:

Levante v Motherwell
Rangers v Falkirk

Win! 1-0 and 3-0, Levante left it late thou..
Balance: €77.71

Taking a tenner out for something else, so balance for this log now stands at €67.71 from my initial €50, slow and steady.. With a little more luck it would be well over €100, but with a little less luck, I could also be broke now, so can't complain!

Randomfriend

Bet #11:

9 and 10 being the Hearts win and another little small 3/4 euro earner I did..

Sam Querrey* (2) 2 40-15 1 (0) Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo
Sam to win 3-0 @1/9
Total stake paid: €77.71
Potential return: €86.31

Yes I did bet that tenner I'm taking out too :pac:

Sam is the far batter tennis player here, Hasn't dropped his serve once and comes close to breaking Ruben every single time.

Randomfriend

Randomfriend wrote: »

Bet #11:

9 and 10 being the Hearts win and another little small 3/4 euro earner I did..

Sam Querrey* (2) 2 40-15 1 (0) Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo
Sam to win 3-0 @1/9
Total stake paid: €77.71
Potential return: €86.31

Yes I did bet that tenner I'm taking out too :pac:

Sam is the far batter tennis player here, Hasn't dropped his serve once and comes close to breaking Ruben every single time.

Win! Balance: €76.31

Pretty easy win in the end, might make the same bet for Mr. Federer now in a minute, will watch the first set and a half and see how the match and the odds look first thou, but chances are he will run out a very easy 3-0 winner also

paddymayoman

Do you think federer will win 3-0.serena williams had me sweating in her 2nd set for her to win 2-0

Randomfriend

paddymayoman wrote: »

Do you think federer will win 3-0.serena williams had me sweating in her 2nd set for her to win 2-0

9 times out of 10 he will, the other guy has started relatively well thou, Its probably not worth betting on if I'm honest

Its one of those bets, where your're pretty sure its going to be happen, but there's that small doubt in the back of your mind, that something might happen so you back away from it..

As I type Phau has held his serve once and put up a very good fight for rodgers first serve so he has a shot at breaking him, but hes not good enough to do any better than win one set at the most, I'm rambling now but IMO, worst case scenario for Federer is a 3-1 victory, but everything points to it being 3-0.

Federer might break Phau now actually ^^

paddymayoman

Took federer to win set 1 at 1/12, could be a long night if i had done 3-0 phau seems to be decent enough at the moment

Randomfriend

paddymayoman wrote: »

Took federer to win set 1 at 1/12, could be a long night if i had done 3-0 phau seems to be decent enough at the moment

Yes indeed, I'd say set 1 is safe, but betting on all 3 is risky enough, he is playing better than I expected in fairness to the guy. Quite often the weaker player will start out and play as well as they can even occasionally nicking the first set, but then tail off later on, still I'm fine with taking mad risky bets myself but 'd never advise anyone else to take them, I'd feel bad if it went wrong

Right now for my risky stupid ass bet! :pac:

Bet #12:

Deportivo Quito 2-1 Aurora
Under 4.5 goals @1/16
Total stake for this bet: €85.48
Potential Return: €90.82
79th minute

I could have had under 5.5 @2/5 but decided not to, Depor just took two attackers off for two midfielders and are looking to keep their lead, so hopefully they just pass the ball about the place and let the time run out

Randomfriend

Randomfriend wrote: »

Bet #12:

Deportivo Quito 2-1 Aurora
Under 4.5 goals @1/16
Total stake for this bet: €85.48
Potential Return: €90.82
79th minute

I could have had under 5.5 @2/5 but decided not to, Depor just took two attackers off for two midfielders and are looking to keep their lead, so hopefully they just pass the ball about the place and let the time run out

Win! ended 2-1 as I had hoped but hadn't the balls to go for under 3.5 goals! so the small profit will do nicely. I'll also stop betting that tenner I said I'm taking out now :pac:

Balance: €80.82

Randomfriend

Ok one more..

Bet #13:

Caledonia AIA 0-1 Seattle Sounders
Under 4.5 goals @1/20 (50 minutes played)
Total stake for this bet: €90.82
Potential Return: €95.36 win!


Longest 25 minutes of my life ended 1-3, thankfully, just as they did last week, Seattle took the foot off the gas at 3-1 and took their strikers off, it went from 1-0 to 3-1 in the space of 8 minutes, oh football, you so crazy. I'll count myself unbelievable unlucky that so many goals flooded in out of nowhere, but then also lucky that the Seattle manager is a conservative man.
I had actually planned on betting for a Seattle win (around 1/2-0) but forgot about the game until it was 1-0, now I need to go have a lie down..
I'm not a superstitious man but when the 3rd goal went in I realized this was bet #13, it got me mighty worried, especially when #4 came about two minutes later!

I normally never make a bet like that, and if I do its usually with about 15 minutes to go.. Was actually so sure it would end up in or around 2-0.. Lesson learned..

Balance: €85.36

Randomfriend

Bet #14:

Le Havre AC v AS Monaco DNB @10/11
Total stake for this bet: €25.36
Potential Return: €48.41

Randomfriend

Bet #15:

Korea DPR Women U20 1-1 USA Women U20
Under 3.5 goals @ 1/12
Total stake for this bet: €60.00
Potential Return: €65.00

Randomfriend

Randomfriend wrote: »

Bet #15:

Korea DPR Women U20 1-1 USA Women U20
Under 3.5 goals @ 1/12
Total stake for this bet: €60.00
Potential Return: €65.00

Win! Balance: €65.00

Randomfriend

Bet #16:

1860 Munich v Duisburg @8/15
Total stake for this bet: €25.00
Potential Return: €38.33

Simply the better team, hopefully it shows.

Randomfriend

Bet #17:

ADO Den Haag DNB v FC Groningen @8/15
Total stake for this bet: €25.00
Potential Return: €38.33