A reasonably reliable method to predict points - Medicine, Pharmacy & DENTAL SCIENCE

partyatmygaff

A few of you may remember my fairly successful attempt to estimate the points for undergraduate medicine last year. It kept my mind and a lot of other people's minds off speculation and baseless guessing on boards and in newspapers of points and i'd imagine it was fairly re-assuring for some people. I've decided to run the survey again this year.

For those wondering why I only chose Medicine and Pharmacy I have two reasons. One, i'm fairly familiar with all eight courses and secondly both Medicine and Pharmacy are easy to work with for a survey like this. Unlike Law for example, medicine and pharmacy in any college has a single course code. Law on the other hand has many course codes for all the available options such as "Law and business" or "Law and French". The same goes for many other course groups like Engineering or Computer courses.

For those who don't remember or weren't active on this forum last year, i'll quote last year's post as it sums up how this "system" works.

To begin with, we need to understand how the CAO works. The "Points" of a course published in newspapers are the points of the lowest-scoring candidate that received an offer for the course in question. That is to say that if there are 300 offers made then the offer made to candidate #300 will serve as a cut-off point with regard to the points required for a course.

Bearing this in mind, it is possible to obtain a somewhat accurate estimation of a course's points providing that a large proportion of applicants for the course in question take part in the "survey".

Essentially, what this spreadsheet does is take people's points and their first preference (All anonymously) and with this generates highest, lowest, mean and median points for the individual courses. If X is the number of places available on a course, it takes the X highest scores, finds the lowest of them and uses that to generate an estimation. The more people that take part, the more accurate the estimation gets.

Now, first of all there's one thing people need to understand. This method is not perfect. It may be off. It may be spot on. I don't know but it sure beats random speculation by newspapers and their journalists.

Needless to say, this survey (Unlike the one I made for the Mock) needs massive participation. It needs to spread to as many candidates as possible so if people could spread the word (Preferably before Monday ) that would be a great help to the effort. The mass uptake of this survey is absolutely vital to get a good estimation so do your best to spread the word to other applicants further afield than Boards.

Pharmacy
Data/Estimation
http://goo.gl/CPLMh
Survey
http://goo.gl/84ukC

Medicine
Data/Estimation
http://goo.gl/fZDv2
Survey
http://goo.gl/9Jn4r

Dental Science / Dentistry
Data/Estimation
http://goo.gl/6w3AN
Survey
http://goo.gl/W5b9X

Taco Chips

Filled in my details. I'll be really interested to see the results for this. Thanks a million for doing it again!

seriouslysweet

Great idea

seriouslysweet

It blacked out my results, is that cos I got over 600? I wrote in 563

Just Like Heaven

I reckon the points for med are going to be reasonably similar this year (as in no 10 point jumps), because although hpat scores were slightly higher, the 5 points bonus for maths will push points up, but more importantly see that more people reach 550.

johnnyboy18

Great work! I'll be constantly checking this!

johnnyboy18

fewtinsoffroth wrote: »

I reckon the points for med are going to be reasonably similar this year (as in no 10 point jumps), because although hpat scores were slightly higher, the 5 points bonus for maths will push points up, but more importantly see that more people reach 550.

This doesn't make sense?

partyatmygaff

seriouslysweet wrote: »

It blacked out my results, is that cos I got over 600? I wrote in 563

A lot of the spreadsheet code was carried over from last year where the maximum was 560. It's been changed now to reflect the new maximum of 565.

(On that note... i've changed one 575 result to 555.)

JamJamJamJam

Somebody got the very same LC and HPAT scores as me... Cool :P

How long should it take to get estimations?

Just Like Heaven

johnnyboy18 wrote: »

This doesn't make sense?

No? Hpat was more difficult this year, so points will go down. But extra points for maths means more people will reach 550, and more people will get more points, therefore pushing them up. So, I reckon it'll be a slight rise, but not as drastic as last year.

johnnyboy18

fewtinsoffroth wrote: »

No? Hpat was more difficult this year, so points will go down. But extra points for maths means more people will reach 550, and more people will get more points, therefore pushing them up. So, I reckon it'll be a slight rise, but not as drastic as last year.

Ok I understand now, thanks.

johnnyboy18

Do you still have your predictions for last year? Be interesting to see how close you were...

Darksider

fewtinsoffroth wrote: »

No? Hpat was more difficult this year, so points will go down. But extra points for maths means more people will reach 550, and more people will get more points, therefore pushing them up. So, I reckon it'll be a slight rise, but not as drastic as last year.

HPAT was more difficult? Where did you hear that? The max score went down by 4 points but the percentile:score scale stayed roughly the same. Those 25 points are going to have a huge effect because a) way more people will be hitting 550 and b) anyone from 2011 who didn't get a place, had a good hpat but 525 points or less, can reapply with a whole +25 to their score.
Imagine this:

In 2011, someone got a hpat of 202 and 525 points in the leaving cert. This leaves them with 727 points. Not enough for nuig in 2011, but this year they'll have 550 points and 202 which means their combined score is now 752.

Just Like Heaven

I can't remember the exact figures but I remember looking and say (for example) 181 this year would put you at 84th percentile, whereas last year 84th percentile would have scored you 190 or something.

Darksider

fewtinsoffroth wrote: »

I can't remember the exact figures but I remember looking and say (for example) 181 this year would put you at 84th percentile, whereas last year 84th percentile would have scored you 190 or something.

Nope, 181 was around 82-84th percentile in both 2011 and 2012

194 is roughly 93-95th percentile for both years too.

fleeflyfloflum

Darksider wrote: »

HPAT was more difficult? Where did you hear that? The max score went down by 4 points but the percentile:score scale stayed roughly the same. Those 25 points are going to have a huge effect because a) way more people will be hitting 550 and b) anyone from 2011 who didn't get a place, had a good hpat but 525 points or less, can reapply with a whole +25 to their score.
Imagine this:

In 2011, someone got a hpat of 202 and 525 points in the leaving cert. This leaves them with 727 points. Not enough for nuig in 2011, but this year they'll have 550 points and 202 which means their combined score is now 752.

Presuming they have an A1 in maths, for every grade further down the effect decreases.

johnnyboy18

It's heating up nicely! Here's hoping the big guns got their scores in early!

randylonghorn

johnnyboy18 wrote: »

Do you still have your predictions for last year? Be interesting to see how close you were...

From what I remember, he was nearer the mark than I expected.

It does very much rely on getting a good input of *accurate* data though.

partyatmygaff

randylonghorn wrote: »

From what I remember, he was nearer the mark than I expected.

It does very much rely on getting a good input of *accurate* data though.

That's absolutely vital. I need accurate data and a lot of it to be able to have any chance of even vaguely approximating the points.

Highly accurate or off the mark, it's still a far less worrying exercise than reading speculation and relying on baseless guessing.

In other news, i've got a few very early preliminary estimations for TCD, UCD and NUIG. With only 88 entries at the time of this post, take them with a pinch of salt. For those interested:

TCD
747 points

UCD
743 points

NUIG
740 points

My personal opinion (Which may be wrong) is TCD won't be too far off what's currently being estimated. UCD will be a bit higher than current estimations (But not by much) and NUIG may be a tiny bit lower than current estimations. My opinion is based on usual trends in points over the past few years and is even less reliable than the numbers posted above.

As of yet, there isn't enough data for a preliminary estimation for RCSI, UCC Medicine or TCD, RCSI, UCC Pharmacy.

Taco Chips

partyatmygaff wrote: »

TCD
747 points

I have repeated the HPAT 3 times and am on 747. I swear to God if this doesn't go my way I will cut a bitch.

jos360

Ah here, who's the smart fecker getting 800 combined. I mean, is there any need for that? Now me mammy wants to know why I'm in the 740's... :L

Nah, fair play tho, thats sick man!

Darksider

Entries 49-51 look like duplicates, exact same entry three times in quick succession.

JamJamJamJam

jos360 wrote: »

Ah here, who's the smart fecker getting 800 combined. I mean, is there any need for that? Now me mammy wants to know why I'm in the 740's... :L

Nah, fair play tho, thats sick man!

I saw that :O Must be the first person to break 800?? And look where they're going... UCC! It's obviously the coolest college...

partyatmygaff

Darksider wrote: »

Entries 49-51 look like duplicates, exact same entry three times in quick succession.

In Medicine? Rows 49-51 all appear to be different.

InsertAnyName

partyatmygaff wrote: »

In Medicine? Rows 49-51 all appear to be different.

They mean rows 51-53
Thanks for doing this

Darksider

partyatmygaff wrote: »

Darksider wrote: »

Entries 49-51 look like duplicates, exact same entry three times in quick succession.

In Medicine? Rows 49-51 all appear to be different.

yeah, shows up as nuig and exact same leaving cert and hpat. first entry was

8/16/2012
17:40:47

edit: they're 49-51 for me, directly after the one that says adjusted from 580 to 556. must show up differently for others

partyatmygaff

Removed 52 and 53. Thanks for letting me know.

partyatmygaff

First preliminary estimation for pharmacy is ready.

TCD Pharmacy
580 points

At this very early stage with only 12 entries, take the above estimation with a very big pinch of salt. Remember that the more entries received the more accurate the estimation should be.

jos360

Would ya ever be sound and drop your TCD estimation by two points to make me feel better?

Derick990

Hey under your predictions your taking the available places on TCD and NUIG's courses to be 92 and 90 respectively whereas on Qualifax.ie they are both quoted around 120. Is that something you can change or does it even matter?

jos360

Derick990 wrote: »

Hey under your predictions your taking the available places on TCD and NUIG's courses to be 92 and 90 respectively whereas on Qualifax.ie they are both quoted around 120. Is that something you can change or does it even matter?

If you check the facebook page of 'TCD med class of 2017' theres already about 35 members Not all places go to us LC students, the Canadians and Americans snap em up!

Derick990

jos360 wrote: »

If you check the facebook page of 'TCD med class of 2017' theres already about 35 members Not all places go to us LC students, the Canadians and Americans snap em up!

Touche, I forgot about foreign applicants. Good point.:o

nogivingup

jos360 wrote: »

If you check the facebook page of 'TCD med class of 2017' theres already about 35 members Not all places go to us LC students, the Canadians and Americans snap em up!

No, our class (Class of 2016) has a total of 173 with around 120 Irish applicants!

Maclovinx

Have you enough for an estimation for UCC yet????

partyatmygaff

Both UCC Pharmacy and UCC Medicine need a few more participants to get a preliminary estimation. UCC Pharmacy is closer to a preliminary estimation at the moment.

To improve accuracy (Or even just get an estimation of any description) we need a lot more people participating in both surveys.

Maclovinx

Thankyou:) Il keep checking!!!!!!!!!!!!

partyatmygaff

As more people participate the estimations become more accurate.

Pharmacy
TCD: 570 points
RCSI: Need 3 more participants for an initial estimation
UCC: Need 2 more participants for an initial estimation

Medicine
TCD: 748 points
UCD: 742 points
NUIG: 738 points
UCC: Need 6 more participants for an initial estimation
RCSI: Need 2 more participants for an initial estimation

These are still very early estimates so take heed to the usual disclaimer.

Taco Chips

partyatmygaff wrote: »

Medicine
TCD: 748 points

I promise that I will burn down the CAO HQ if I miss TCD by a point.

drbtrenier

Taco Chips wrote: »

I promise that I will burn down the CAO HQ if I miss TCD by a point.

Do you mind me asking why you want TCD so much? WIth that score you're almost guaranteed RCSI for example...

barry_murphy

Sorry, I'm #133 in the medicine list. I put down TCD by mistake, actually my first choice is RCSI. Please change it back for me please. Thanks!!

Taco Chips

drbtrenier wrote: »

Taco Chips wrote: »

I promise that I will burn down the CAO HQ if I miss TCD by a point.

Do you mind me asking why you want TCD so much? WIth that score you're almost guaranteed RCSI for example...

I did first year of physics in TCD last year and loved the place. The campus, the set up, the location. Also Ive made friends there that I dont want to leave behind.

Liveforrugby

Anychance we could do this for dentistry? Would be really interesting to see

partyatmygaff

Liveforrugby wrote: »

Anychance we could do this for dentistry? Would be really interesting to see

Should be possible. Just get me the course codes and the average intake quoted on Qualifax and i'll look in to it when I get home.

Liveforrugby

I'm not sure what you mean by "average intake quoted on Qualifax"

partyatmygaff

Liveforrugby wrote: »

I'm not sure what you mean by "average intake quoted on Qualifax"

Go to Qualifax.ie and check out all the Dental Science courses. Usually they'll have the average intake somewhere on the page.

Liveforrugby

Intake as in the amount they earn? Or the number of people accepted every year?

partyatmygaff

Liveforrugby wrote: »

Intake as in the amount they earn? Or the number of people accepted every year?

Intake as in the amount of people accepted every year. I'd do it myself but i'm not at home at the moment.

dcam

There were 32 places in TCD for 2011 couldn't find the number for UCC though.

partyatmygaff

As I don't have exact details for either TCD or UCC, i've arbitrarily set the number of available places (As in available to normal CAO applicants) to 25 for each. Until I get more accurate information, it'll have to do. Truth be told, I'm not sure if it will work out for dental science. The number of applicants is even smaller than Medicine and Pharmacy and we'd need a reasonably large proportion of them to get something somewhat accurate.

Dental Science / Dentistry
Survey
http://goo.gl/W5b9X
Data/Estimation
http://goo.gl/6w3AN

partyatmygaff

Initial estimation for TCD Dental Science is about 600 points. That said, with only 4 people down for TCD Dent so far it's an almost completely baseless estimation.

I'd recommend that people tell anyone they know who applied for any of the three courses about this thread. Spread the link to the thread itself.

Darksider

partyatmygaff wrote: »

Initial estimation for TCD Dental Science is about 600 points. That said, with only 4 people down for TCD Dent so far it's an almost completely baseless estimation.

I'd recommend that people tell anyone they know who applied for any of the three courses about this thread. Spread the link to the thread itself.

any estimate on the other 2 pharmacy courses yet? even rough estimates