5000m final predictions

M cebee

1. gebremeskel
2. alamirew
3. farah
4. koech
5. longosiwa
6. rupp

winning time 12-55

ecoli

If its a slow race I would expect Farah to be run out of the medals tbh hasn't

Expect Gebremeskel to take it in low 13

M cebee

ya 12-55 is prob optimistic:P-i think the OR from 08 is only12-57 or so?

formerrunner25

Dont think Farah or Rupp will feature in medals
To much quality in this.
Could be wrong though

M cebee

ya this field is top drawer

rupp and farah will be lucky to medal

myflipflops

Too much quality for Farah to medal?? That would be the best distance runner on the face of the planet for the last 18 months. A guy who ran 3.34 for 1500 this season to beat Leo Manzano (Olympics 1500 silver medalist) and who won the 10k without an issue.

If Farah has recovered then I think he will win. No chance he fails to medal. Lagat looked like his leg turnover from indoors is still there so I think he will medal too. Gebremeskel to get bronze.

It will be interesting to see if the Ethiopians set a quicker pace. They let the 10k play into Farahs hands.

ecoli

6 men closed the heats as fast as Farah did in the 10,000m (54.) and I havent been convinced with his kicks this year (even that 10,000m was slower than worlds last year)

Should be a bit better recovered for this though than him and Rupp were in the heats

If comes to a kick I can see Rupp getting a medal at the expense of Farah

myflipflops

Even though Farah beat Rupp pretty comfortably in the 10k in a kick as well as beating him every other time they have competed?

I know you reckon Farahs kick is not the same this season but I don't really see the evidence. He has not lost a competitive race this year and that 1500 is outrageous form.

This 5k is VERY competitive and he may well get beaten (i make him 6/4 100% line so I think 1/2 that he does not win) but he should be favorite. I think a quicker pace may suit him. Lagat is the dark horse here.

M cebee

is aguider going to do anything in this

he's a dark horse too

ecoli

myflipflops wrote: »

Even though Farah beat Rupp pretty comfortably in the 10k in a kick as well as beating him every other time they have competed?

I know you reckon Farahs kick is not the same this season but I don't really see the evidence. He has not lost a competitive race this year and that 1500 is outrageous form.

This 5k is VERY competitive and he may well get beaten (i make him 6/4 100% line so I think 1/2 that he does not win) but he should be favorite. I think a quicker pace may suit him. Lagat is the dark horse here.

Regarding Rupp was hugely impressed with him beating Lagat with a 52. last lap in the US Trials after already running the 10k in Trials

Though Farah has not been beat I thought the Euros looked to be a kicking exercise for him where he jogged till the last lap and then went for it but still only managed a 54. You also look at the fact that the Olympics was 16 seconds slower than Olympics and he closed slower with Rupp closing.

I thought his 1500m form would translate but it doesnt seem to have the effect I thought it would. I could be wrong but just my assessment

Regarding Lagat I agree he looked smooth in qualifying and back him myself (9/1 worth a shot )

TheZ

Should be great

Have a few quid on lagat
Iguider may also figure

the_real_lamp

M cebee wrote: »

is aguider going to do anything in this

he's a dark horse too

He is a 13:09 man so if it is relatively quick, surely the finish will be ran out of him. Off slow place, a threat.

myflipflops

ecoli wrote: »

Though Farah has not been beat I thought the Euros looked to be a kicking exercise for him where he jogged till the last lap and then went for it but still only managed a 54.

Reading too much into this I think. He did win that race.

M cebee

the_real_lamp wrote: »

He is a 13:09 man so if it is relatively quick, surely the finish will be ran out of him. Off slow place, a threat.

ya

if it's slower he might make a charge at some stage

i reckon he'll be pumped

ecoli

myflipflops wrote: »

Reading too much into this I think. He did win that race.

Possibly and he could trained through this one given the lack of competition (no disrespect to the other guys) but just seemed to me like he really went for it last lap more so than just doing enough to win

seanynova

antone got a link to a stream for this? at work and cant view RTE as im outside ireland...

cheers

ecoli

seanynova wrote: »

antone got a link to a stream for this? at work and cant view RTE as im outside ireland...

cheers

BBC site?

ecoli

52.94 so I guess I was wrong. I was gutted to see Lagat tripped coming off the bend thought he was looking pretty good

walshb

What a stunning stunning race.

darrenoconaill

Well done Mo. Some race.

RacoonQueen

Perfect tactics. So well executed.

Supraman

Delighted for Farah , really fought hard the last lap despite serious pressure.

STB

myflipflops wrote: »

Too much quality for Farah to medal?? That would be the best distance runner on the face of the planet for the last 18 months. A guy who ran 3.34 for 1500 this season to beat Leo Manzano (Olympics 1500 silver medalist) and who won the 10k without an issue.

If Farah has recovered then I think he will win. No chance he fails to medal. Lagat looked like his leg turnover from indoors is still there so I think he will medal too. Gebremeskel to get bronze.

It will be interesting to see if the Ethiopians set a quicker pace. They let the 10k play into Farahs hands.

Good Call.

kincsem

13:41.66 The Ethiopians and Kenyans made that easy for Mo Farah.

mike65

Some fcuk wit pundit on RTE right now! Choose your moment mate!

MungoMan

mike65 wrote: »

Some fcuk wit pundit on RTE right now! Choose your moment mate!

Mo is a wonderful athlete, as he proves time and time again, well deserved.

I smiled a bit when brendan foster from the bbc said "mo, taking on the might of africa !

Genetically mo is 100% african, which is probably a big factor in why he such an awesome middle distance runner

Well done mohammed.

rom

ecoli wrote: »

If its a slow race I would expect Farah to be run out of the medals tbh hasn't

Expect Gebremeskel to take it in low 13

ecoli

rom wrote: »

Hadnt factored in Lagat getting tripped:p

MrCreosote

MungoMan wrote: »

Mo is a wonderful athlete, as he proves time and time again, well deserved.

I smiled a bit when brendan foster from the bbc said "mo, taking on the might of africa !

Genetically mo is 100% african, which is probably a big factor in why he such an awesome middle distance runner

Well done mohammed.

This is a silly argument. Genetically he is as different from the Kenyan athletes as you or me. Africa is a big place. He never spent his formative years at altitude, he never ran to school day-in day-out.

He's a product of the GB and American training system. He is a British athlete.

The whole "be jaysus all dem africans are de same, and sure aren't dey great at the aul' running" attitude is pretty sad really.

ecoli

MrCreosote wrote: »

This is a silly argument. Genetically he is as different from the Kenyan athletes as you or me. Africa is a big place. He never spent his formative years at altitude, he never ran to school day-in day-out.

He's a product of the GB and American training system. He is a British athlete.

The whole "be jaysus all dem africans are de same, and sure aren't dey great at the aul' running" attitude is pretty sad really.

He has spent an awful lot of time training in Iten before he moved to Oregon

walshb

MrCreosote wrote: »

This is a silly argument. Genetically he is as different from the Kenyan athletes as you or me. Africa is a big place. He never spent his formative years at altitude, he never ran to school day-in day-out.

He's a product of the GB and American training system. He is a British athlete.

The whole "be jaysus all dem africans are de same, and sure aren't dey great at the aul' running" attitude is pretty sad really.

You cannot get away from the fact that genetically he is African. Has to have some impact. They generally are better at long distance running.

RayCun

walshb wrote: »

You cannot get away from the fact that genetically he is African. Has to have some impact. They generally are better at long distance running.

Genetically we're all African, pretty much. The differences between you and I are as big as the differences between you and some random African (excluding bushmen and pygmies)

MrCreosote

walshb wrote: »

You cannot get away from the fact that genetically he is African. Has to have some impact. They generally are better at long distance running.

"African" is too broad a term. Maybe you mean East African? Like I said the genetic differences between Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia (or even between different tribes in Kenya) are as varied as the genetic difference between North Europeans and Kenyans.

Just because they are better/more successful at long distance running does not imply there is some genetic advantage. There are so many other reasons.

walshb

MrCreosote wrote: »

"African" is too broad a term. Maybe you mean East African? Like I said the genetic differences between Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia (or even between different tribes in Kenya) are as varied as the genetic difference between North Europeans and Kenyans.

Just because they are better/more successful at long distance running does not imply there is some genetic advantage. There are so many other reasons.

I agree. Mo being of African origin is one reason of several reasons as to why he is very good at long distance running.

Brianderunner

What was Gebremeskel playing at coming up to the bell? He should have layed on Farah's shoulder and pounced with 200m to go, instead of messing about in 8th or 9th. Who's to say if he would have won or not though.

In the stadium last Saturday and it was the loudest roar i've heard anywhere over the last 100m.

MungoMan

MrCreosote wrote: »

Like I said the genetic differences between Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia (or even between different tribes in Kenya) are as varied as the genetic difference between North Europeans and Kenyans.

Is that really true.
Surely Keynans and Somalians are more closely related to each other than they are to Europeans.

They live in countries which touch each other.

If you take a group of people in Somalia and a group of people in Kenya, they'll have far more recent common ancestry than they have to a group of people from...Norway.
Common ancestry and genetic similarity are the same thing.


Mo didnt grow up at high altitude, or run 10km to school evey day when he was young. He achieved something which no indigenous European has managed in the modern era, genetics may be a big factor, but its hard to prove it.

RayCun

MungoMan wrote: »

He achieved something which no indigenous European has managed in the modern era, genetics may be a big factor, but its hard to prove it.

How would you describe Galen Rupp?

MrCreosote

The genetic variability within the continent of Africa is far greater, even between groups that are geographically close. Probably because as it's humankind's oldest home there's been more time for this to develop.

Of course Farah has a genetic advantage over most people. Every athlete that made the olympics does. But that is not because he was born in Africa. Plenty of non-Africans will have the same advantage, but most will never know because they never run competitively, or they don't train enough or whatever.

MungoMan

In the past 20 years only Craig Mottram and Galen Rupp (with European ancestry) have medaled in mens 5000 or 10000 metres in world championships or Olympics, a bronze and a silver.

OK, maybe the Africans train harder, and more of them try to become athletes, and many live at high altitude, and maybe that's some of the reasons for their dominance.

But surely there is some evidence that on average, the African elite athlete has has a natural advantage genetically compared to the European.
OK, I know there is great genetic diversity in Africa, but just because there is great diversity does not mean that the average African is not naturally better at middle distance running due to genetic factors.

I've been waiting all my life for a European ancestry runner of the class of Gabresellese or Bekele or El Gerouj or Morcelli or Wilson Kipeter or David Rodesia.............I just want to see one, and it hasnt happened yet, although Rupp might fill the gap

RayCun

MungoMan wrote: »

In the past 20 years only Craig Mottram and Galen Rupp (with European ancestry) have medaled in mens 5000 or 10000 metres in world championships or Olympics, a bronze and a silver.

How many athletes of African ancestry* have medalled in gymnastics? Weightlifting? Boxing? Swimming? Is that genetic too?

* hang on, we all have African ancestry. So what do you even mean? White skin? Is dark skin an advantage in distance running?

walshb

In general black men seem to be better at boxing. Any explosive power/athletic sports seem to favour black people over white people.

BTW, dozens and dozens of black men have won medals in boxing. I believe the only man, Anthony Nesty from Suriname, has won an individual swimming medal. And how sweet was it that he denied the great Matt Biondi that gold medal.:).

As to distance running. Everything in general I would say African runners are that little bit better when all things are equal. That is down to genetics and physiology.

RayCun

And none of this is cultural?

Are travellers genetically gifted at boxing?

walshb

RayCun wrote: »

And none of this is cultural?

Are travellers genetically gifted at boxing?

I would say culture and passion and enthusiasm for a discipline is very important. GAA! We are not genetically designed to be the best at GAA. I am sure many many other nations could play it very well if they had the same passion and desire to play it.

Travellers are not at a genetic advantage vs. others.

RayCun

walshb wrote: »

I would say culture and passion and enthusiasm for a dsicipline is very important.

I would guess that you agree this is also why Roumania does so well in gymnastics, for a country of its size. And why badminton is dominated by Asian countries.
So, why does this not explain the current east African dominance in distance running?
Does it really come down to they have different colour skin, so they must have some other genetic difference, and it must be that other genetic difference that explains their success, rather than any of the things you would look for if they had white skin?
What exactly is this other genetic difference, that makes east Africans better at distance running, and people with black skin (no matter where in Africa their ancestors came from) better at boxing and sprinting?

walshb

RayCun wrote: »

I would guess that you agree this is also why Roumania does so well in gymnastics, for a country of its size. And why badminton is dominated by Asian countries.
So, why does this not explain the current east African dominance in distance running?
Does it really come down to they have different colour skin, so they must have some other genetic difference, and it must be that other genetic difference that explains their success, rather than any of the things you would look for if they had white skin?
What exactly is this other genetic difference, that makes east Africans better at distance running, and people with black skin (no matter where in Africa their ancestors came from) better at boxing and sprinting?

Well, bone density is one area that they consider helps black athletes that bit more in certian disciplines. Also, it is not as helpful in other disciplines, like swimming.

RayCun

walshb wrote: »

Well, bone density is one area that they consider helps black athletes that bit more in certian disciplines.

Who is 'they'? Greater or lesser density? How does this help in both sprinting and distance running (and boxing)? Why doesn't it help in weightlifting? Or tennis?
And could you point me to the evidence that shows all black people have different bone density to all white people, no matter where they live or what they eat?

robinph

walshb wrote: »

Well, bone density is one area that they consider helps black athletes that bit more in certian disciplines. Also, it is not as helpful in other disciplines, like swimming.

The reason there are not as many black athletes swimming is because swimming is requires you to grow up in a rich neighbourhood in order to have access to pools.

walshb

robinph wrote: »

The reason there are not as many black athletes swimming is because swimming is requires you to grow up in a rich neighbourhood in order to have access to pools.

Agreed. Money and access also play a part.

Applies to tennis as well.

For sports that are fairly easily accessible there are certain traits in white people and black people that may be advantageous. Black people in general seem to excel that bit better in power/explosive/athletic disciplines.

RayCun

walshb wrote: »

For sports that are fairly easily accessible there are certain traits in white people and black people. Black people in general seem to excel that bit better in power/explosive/athletic disciplines.

Or those are the disciplines they are directed into? Is there a genetic reason that makes black footballers worse goalkeepers? Are black kids in the US as likely to be trained as quarterbacks?

walshb

RayCun wrote: »

Or those are the disciplines they are directed into? Is there a genetic reason that makes black footballers worse goalkeepers? Are black kids in the US as likely to be trained as quarterbacks?

Eh, there is no exact answer to all your questions. Just theories put out there by people and experts etc.

MrCreosote

Despite all the theories, there's never been a genetic difference identified to explain the success of East African runners. And believe me, they are looking.

The training, the kudos attached to being a top runner, running just to get around, the coaching, living at altitude are the things that make them champions. (As well as possibly the uncontrolled access to doping agents.)