August 2012 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT for August, the 1981-2010 average was 15.3 C.

2. Predict the maximum temperature for August at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the minimum temperature for August at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the rainfall as percentage of normal values, as reported for eleven met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

5. Predict the sunshine as percentage of normal values, as reported for however many met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

6. Bonus question. Predict the max temp (C) and rainfall (mms) at Knock on Saturday, 11th August.

TEMPLATE ...

IMT .... MAX .... MIN .... PRC .... SUN .... T.t/r.r

Normal deadlines apply -- end of Wed 1st for on time entries, slight penalty on 2nd, more severe penalty on 3rd, closed 0300h 4th.

Bsal

15.2 .... 22.1 .... 3.7 .... 127% .... 97% .... 18.1/3.0mm

Iancar29

15.4 .... 25.8 .... 4.8 .... 95% .... 105% .... 21/1.0mm

Hammer Archer

15.6 .... 24.1 .... 4.2 .... 110% .... 85% .... 18.8/1.2mm

Strasser

15.0 .... 24.3 .... 4.5 .... 100% .... 100% .... 16.3 / 5.0mm

talkabout

15.6 .... 25.9 .... 4.7 .... 95% .... 105% .... 18.3/0.0mm

Gonzo

15.2 .... 23.6 .... 3.2 .... 159% .... 83% .... 16.8/4.3mm

pauldry

13.9 .... 24.4 .... 3.7 .... 178% .... 89% .... 15.1/3.6m

dexter647

14.5 .... 26.2 .... 2.9 .... 115% .... 81% .... 17.6/1.3mm

delw

14.9 ......25.4 ........ 3.7 .......98% ..... 93% ......17.3/4.5mm

M.T. Cranium

I suspect a washout ...

14.2 .... 23.3 .... 1.8 .... 179 .... 066 .... 15.5 C and 3.5 mm

H2UMrsRobinson

15.2....23.1....7.2 ....115% ....87% ....18.5/6mm

dasa29

15.0 .... 28.5 .... 2.5 .... 125% .... 90% .... 17.0/4.0mm

Harps

15.0 .... 26.5 .... 3.9 .... 140 .... 090 .... 19.1/1.1

K_1

15.0 .... 24.5 .... 3.5 .... 120 .... 090 .... 18.0/0.0

Redsunset

14.0...21.5...2.8....200...79...16.8...12mm

homolumo

14.9 .... 24.9 .... 3.9 .... 159 .... 089 .... 18.9/0.9

okla

14.8.... 25.3.... 5.3.... 120.... 90...16.6c 0mms

Rikand

15.3 ..... 25.5 ...... 4.0 ...... 160 ...... 80 ...... 19.9/2.0 mm

jambofc

15.2 ..... 24.9 ...... 5.5 ...... 148 ...... 85 ...... 18.2/3.3 mm

John mac

14.8.... 25.6 .... 5.1 .... 120 .... 102 .... 18.6 /5.6

pesioptomistic :pac:

rameire

15.0 .... 24.6 .... 4.5 .... 125 .... 85 .... 17.6/2.1

dacogawa

15.1 .... 24.4 .... 3.8 .... 140 .... 90 .... 16.2/0.3mm

Speak Now

14.5.... 24.3.... 2.7.... 130.... 90.... 15.8/3mm

Danno

15.1c .... 24.9c .... -0.1c .... 165% .... 105% .... 15.7c/14.3mm

jd

15.0 .... 24.1 .... 2.7 .... 129% .... 94% .... 18.8/ 3mm

mickger844posts

14.9 .... 24.7 .... 4.3 .... 150 .... 75 .... 16.8/4.2

Sponge Bob

15.1 ....24.1 .... 3.1 .... 121 .... 88 .... 16.9/0.1mm

cherryghost

14.5....25.6....3.0....130%....90%...18.4/0.5mm

lostinashford

14.6....21.4....3.2....127....87....18.7....4mm

DOCARCH

15.4 .... 26.2 .... 3.9 .... 110 .... 95 .... 18.6/0.8

traecy1

15.0....25.1....3.4....100...90....19.5/0.5mm

snowstreams

IMT 15.5 MAX 25 MIN 3.1 PRC 105 SUN 101 18.1/3.8

Tae laidir

14.9 .... 25.0 .... 1.6 .... 115 .... 97 .... 16.6/4.1

nilhg

15.7 .... 26.8 .... 3 .... 87 .... 108 .... 20.8/0

waterways

14.8 .... 24.1 .... 4.3 .... 139 .... 93 .... 15.4/0.6

Lumi

15.3 .... 25.9 .... 2.3 .... 125 .... 89 .... 16.5/2.22

kindredspirit

15.3 ... 25 ... 3.5 ... 95 ... 90 ... 17.0/0.0

SeaFields

14.5 .... 25.0 .... 4.5 .... 130 .... 60 .... 18.5/0.0

MiNdGaM3

15.4 .... 23.9 .... 1.9 .... 105 .... 99 .... 16.8/2.0

NIALL D

15.3 .... 26.1 .... 3.8 .... 125 .... 67 .... 19.5/1.0

Joe Public

15.4 .... 29.9 .... 4.9 .... 89 .... 129 .... 18.9/0

M.T. Cranium

Entries are still welcome today (Thursday) and tomorrow, cut off is 0300h Saturday. These are the on-time entries, from now on, slight penalties apply to higher scores (see post #1 for details on that).

August forecast contest entries
____________________________________________

FORECASTER ......... IMT ... MAX ... MIN ... PRC ... SUN ... Knock-11th
______________________________________________________________


nilhg .................... 15.7 ... 26.8 ... 3.0 ... 087 ... 108 ... 20.8..0.0
Hammer Archer ...... 15.6 ... 24.1 ... 4.2 ... 110 ... 085 ... 18.8..1.2
talkabout ............. 15.6 ... 25.9 ... 4.7 ... 095 ... 105 ... 18.3..0.0
snowstreams ......... 15.5 ... 25.0 ... 3.1 ... 105 ... 101 ... 18.1..3.8
Joe Public ............. 15.4 ... 29.9 ... 4.9 ... 089 ... 129 ... 18.9..0.0
MiNdGaM3 ............ 15.4 ... 23.9 ... 1.9 ... 105 ... 099 ... 16.8..2.0
DOCARCH ............. 15.4 ... 26.2 ... 3.9 ... 110 ... 095 ... 18.6..0.8
Iancar29 .............. 15.4 ... 25.8 ... 4.8 ... 095 ... 105 ... 21.0..1.0
NIALL D ............... 15.3 ... 26.1 ... 3.8 ... 125 ... 067 ... 19.5..1.0
kindredspirit ......... 15.3 ... 25.0 ... 3.5 ... 095 ... 090 ... 17.0..0.0
Lumi ................... 15.3 ... 25.9 ... 2.3 ... 125 ... 089 ... 16.5..2.2
Rickylovesuall ...... 15.3 ... 25.5 ... 4.0 ... 160 ... 080 ... 19.9..2.0
Bsal ................... 15.2 ... 22.1 ... 3.7 ... 127 ... 097 ... 18.1..3.0
H2UMrsRobinson ... 15.2 ... 23.1 ... 7.2 ... 115 ... 087 ... 18.5..6.0
Gonzo ................ 15.2 ... 23.6 ... 3.2 ... 159 ... 083 ... 16.8..4.3
jambofc .............. 15.2 ... 24.9 ... 5.5 ... 148 ... 085 ... 18.2..3.3
Sponge Bob ......... 15.1 ... 24.1 ... 3.1 ... 121 ... 088 ... 16.9..0.1
dacogawa ........... 15.1 ... 24.4 ... 3.8 ... 140 ... 090 ... 16.2..0.3
Danno ................ 15.1 ... 24.9 .. -0.1 ... 165 ... 105 ... 15.7.14.3
jd ...................... 15.0 ... 24.1 ... 2.7 ... 129 ... 094 ... 18.8..3.0

Con Sensus ......... 15.0 ... 24.9 ... 3.7 ... 125 ... 090 ... 17.9..2.0

traecy1 .............. 15.0 ... 25.1 ... 3.4 ... 100 ... 090 ... 19.5..0.5
dasa29 ............... 15.0 ... 28.5 ... 2.5 ... 125 ... 090 ... 17.0..4.0
Harps ................. 15.0 ... 26.5 ... 3.9 ... 140 ... 090 ... 19.1..1.1
K_1 ................... 15.0 ... 24.5 ... 3.5 ... 120 ... 090 ... 18.0..0.0
Strasser ............. 15.0 ... 24.3 ... 4.5 ... 100 ... 100 ... 16.3..5.0
rameire ............... 15.0 ... 24.6 ... 4.5 ... 125 ... 085 ... 17.6..2.1
mickger844posts .. 14.9 ... 24.7 ... 4.3 ... 150 ... 075 ... 16.8..4.2
Tae laidir ............ 14.9 ... 25.0 ... 1.6 ... 115 ... 097 ... 16.6..4.1
delw .................. 14.9 ... 25.4 ... 3.7 ... 098 ... 093 ... 17.3..4.5
homolumo ........... 14.9 ... 24.9 ... 3.9 ... 159 ... 089 ... 18.9..0.9
waterways .......... 14.8 ... 24.1 ... 4.3 ... 139 ... 093 ... 15.4..0.6
okla ................... 14.8 ... 25.3 ... 5.3 ... 120 ... 090 ... 16.6..0.0
John mac ............ 14.8 ... 25.6 ... 5.1 ... 120 ... 102 ... 18.6..5.6
lostinashford ........14.6 ... 21.4 ... 3.2 ... 127 ... 087 ... 18.7..4.0
cherryghost ........ 14.5 ... 25.6 ... 3.0 ... 130 ... 090 ... 18.4..0.5
SeaFields ............ 14.5 ... 25.0 ... 4.5 ... 130 ... 060 ... 18.5..0.0
dexter647 ........... 14.5 ... 26.2 ... 2.9 ... 115 ... 081 ... 17.6..1.3
Jerry Seinfeld ...... 14.5 ... 24.3 ... 2.7 ... 130 ... 090 ... 15.8..3.0
M.T. Cranium ...... 14.2 ... 23.3 ... 1.8 ... 179 ... 066 ... 15.5..3.5
Redsunset .......... 14.0 ... 21.5 ... 2.8 ... 200 ... 079 ... 16.8.12.0
Rebelbrowser* .... 14.0 ... 25.9 ... 4.2 ... 079 ... 122 ... 20.3..0.0
pauldry .............. 13.9 ... 24.4 ... 3.7 ... 178 ... 089 ... 15.1..3.6

____________________________________________________

Con Sensus may change with later entries.
* late entry

Rebelbrowser

14.0 ..... 25.9 ...... 4.2 ....... 79 ....... 122 ...... 20.3 .... 0

Sponge Bob

I suspect NilhG may be right back on form this month. We should certainly know a lot more by Saturday the 11th ...most especially if he walks off with the max marks.

200motels

I'm very late with my entry as I was not able to access a PC or Mobile for the past week. Here's my entry for what it's worth.

14.8....23.9....3.6....129....89....19.6....5mm

M.T. Cranium

Will let you know later what if anything can be done about that entry, but in any case the annual contest is based on ten best scores out of twelve so missing one month isn't a huge blow, you've still got one score to discard instead of two. So if this month would be a low score anyway, nothing much changes. If I figure that your score doesn't affect the larger scale outcome of the contest, I might allow one but you would be playing off a huge penalty, sort of like a Canadian football team or something.

Now, speaking of huge penalties, the first week of August turned out like this:

IMT was 14.7 C or about a degree below the normal for the week. That should be heading up for a few days now.

The rainfall was quite variable around the country, apparently Malin Head stayed almost dry and Shannon was also quite dry, while the southeast got into heavier rainfalls as did some other places, overall, the average was about 139%.

Sunshine is always an estimate now that Valentia keeps a secret record that only appears in the MS. If I assume Valentia was similar to Shannon-Cork average then we're sitting at 80% of average. This is what I will assume in the estimates unless I have a different guess from the actual weather patterns.

Well, back to watching our Olympic teams wasting our tax money (but we don't shoot them if they lose, so I guess this is an enlightened nation).

I can't imagine the ego boost I would feel, if I were among the world's top hundred underwater tennis players, or whatever this sport is I am watching.

pauldry

think met eireann data for yesterday 10th August 2012 is wrong!

also 9th August may be too.

Does that mean we cant even forecast the temperature for yesterday anymore? eek

Joe Public

pauldry wrote: »

think met eireann data for yesterday 10th August 2012 is wrong!

also 9th August may be too.

Does that mean we cant even forecast the temperature for yesterday anymore? eek

I'm trying to figure where they pulled "yesterday's" data from.

Joe Public

Correct "yesterday's" up now.

pauldry

maybe they pulled "yesterday" from 2011. Dunno.

In any case im screwed for this months contest