Olympic Mens Road Race 28/07/12 - *Warning, contains unmasked spoilers*

riparooo

Well it looks like Cavendish must be favourite for this race. His main rival, Sagan, simply wont have the firepower in his national team, Andre Greipels (German) team looks a little more promising. But it would look that if its a sprint finish with the experience the Brits have had a TDF of delivering stage wins for Cavendish he will be almost impossible to beat.

However there is the case of a nasty enough hill, box hill, that has to climbed nine times. The road up and down is narrow and technical and could provide the space for a breakaway to get clear.

Our own Dan Martin would seem like the best hope, he has a powerful enough kick and if he can sneak off with a few other non sprinters could win on the line.

However in a slightly partisan looking piece of route planning the London Olympic organiser have ensured that the last 40k of the run in is flat.

Irelands best ever result in this was in 2004 when Ciaran Power came over the line in 13th.

The closest race in post WWII olympics was in London in 1948 when the bunch failed to catch a very late attack/early sprint finish by Jose Beyart who managed to hold off the peloton to win by 3 seconds. Since then all the Gold and Silver medals have been won by breakaway riders, many non sprinters.

Verdict - hard to see Cavendish lose this.

ednwireland

riparooo wrote: »

Verdict - hard to see Cavendish lose this.

i think bejiing 2008 weighs heavy on cav, he was the only one not to medal on the track if i remember right (and blamed wiggo didnt speak to him for 2 years) it will be interesting to see what tactics the other teams come up with this time to try and disrupt the other sky train

the only problem i have with the mens road race is i'm flying to london that day !

Beasty

Other team's tactics is the key here. Team GB will only have 4 riders to support Cav - virtually the whole of the rest of the peloton may be working together to try and get him dropped on Box Hill.

As usual though Team GB will have done everything possible to prepare ths guys, but there is not much time to come down from the euphoria of the past few days and then build them back up for the weekend

AG2R

It's hard to look past Cav as he will have the riders looking after him. If they can get him up and down Box hill the 9 times and keep him with the sprinters he'll do it. He has 40km of flat after the climb to try and get something back into his legs for a finish(personally think it's a bit crap that there is such a long run after it). When it comes to the sprint Cav may only have one man from GB to lead him out but he's shown before that he can just hijack a wheel and still win.

It'll be interesting to see if the Peloton decide to work against GB (keep typing sky ) and make them do all the donkey work of chasing down breaks and setting the pace at the front and then decide between themselves possibly two or three nations to up the pace on the 5th or 6th spin of box hill to try and drop Cav and possibly two or three other favourites. I think if he was to be dropped it would have to be early on in the climbs because if it's the last one of the day and he has 40km of flat there is a good chance he will get back into the peloton.

When exactly is this btw?

ednwireland

interesting comment from dan martin today

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sport/2012/0721/1224320527547.html

Anyway, I think that will be really good for his confidence, particularly heading towards London next week and the Olympics. Both of us are coming out of the race strongly. I do think that the winner of the Olympic road race is going to come from the Tour de France; I don’t think you can be even slightly competitive without being here.

Obviously there are a couple of exceptions like Tom Boonen, but I think there is a big difference in riding in the Tour beforehand. Yesterday we were all the time looking for extra gear. You are already in 53x11, riding at 55 kilometres per hour, and you just want to go down more gears. You don’t really get that anywhere else. It actually starts to become normal riding at 60 kilometres per hour – that’s going to be really useful for the Olympics.

buffalo

AG2R wrote: »

When exactly is this btw?

This coming Saturday.

AG2R

Thanking you

Hungrycol

10am I think.

afatbollix

I noticed a few pro cyclists out on the route last week. All with a support car each. I know Cav has been to box hill a couple of times before the tour de France.

Its Cavs race to lose but can he handle the pressure?

Beasty

Hungrycol wrote: »

10am I think.

Looks like the Saturday Swords Sprint round the back of the Airport may be even more intense than usual this weekend ...

RobFowl

Just a comment but the Olympis RR has never been won in a bunch spint !!

TheBlaaMan

RobFowl wrote: »

Just a comment but the Olympis RR has never been won in a bunch spint !!

Exactly, and Cavendish has more than other sprinters to worry about......Box Hill x 9 times.......!!! Thats 2.5km @ 5%...............I can see him struggling.

ashleey

He did alright in the Pyrenees in comparison with his main rivals. Love him or hate him ( which some here do), he came from a long way back in the last 2 stages this week and destroyed his rivals.

Beasty

RobFowl wrote: »

Just a comment but the Olympis RR has never been won in a bunch spint !!

... about bloody time it was then ...

Junior

Was talking to someone from within the Irish camp there last week or the week before, he rode Box Hill since it was resurfaced and it's like a snooker table, it's the best surface he ever rode on ! So he reckons it mightn't be as sapping as you'd think.

Beasty

Looks quite popular:

Ridden 15393 times by 2934 people

- doesn't look that much more than the Nag's Head to me:)

leftism

Junior wrote: »

Was talking to someone from within the Irish camp there last week or the week before, he rode Box Hill since it was resurfaced and it's like a snooker table, it's the best surface he ever rode on ! So he reckons it mightn't be as sapping as you'd think.

I'm surprised they didn't put in an escalater for Cav... In a more technical Olympic event, i was told by one of the main organisers, that the course was specifically engineered to suit their athletes. Coaches and team managers were consulted by the course designers 4 years ago when it was being built.

Makes me think that for the road race they probably just brought Cav into a room with a big map of London, handed him a black marker and said "where would you like to race the Olympics?"

riparooo

RobFowl wrote: »

Just a comment but the Olympis RR has never been won in a bunch spint !!

And whats odd is that the UCI world champs are.

Beasty

riparooo wrote: »

And whats odd is that the UCI world champs are.

Don't see it as particularly odd - bear in mind the Olympics are only held every 4 years and I think it's only the last 4 Olympics that have allowed professional riders. I would imagine before then there was a much wider range of abilities resulting in more breaks.

mahoo

Im looking forward to the almighty chase team GB are going to have to put on for the last 40k. And the look on Cavs face on the 9th circuit of box hill. . Think it will be pretty exciting!

scooters

Going over on Thursday and going to cycle it on Friday morning, will report back on Friday evening what it is like.

ednwireland

scooters wrote: »

Going over on Thursday and going to cycle it on Friday morning, will report back on Friday evening what it is like.

good luck with that !

triggermortis

My money's on Cav.

morana

think the podium will be breschel, boonen and dan martin :P

more in hope than expectation!!!

Beasty

Of course if we can get all the UK guys plus the Kenyan and the Belgian working for the Manxman ....

.... that French guy might be a bit lonely:D

GetWithIt

After the final stage on Sunday Eurosport had a piece where Rob Hayles and some fat bloke cycled the route. Box Hill looked tough enough. It's fairly narrow and you'll need to be towards the front from the first circuit. If there's any rain I don't see how GB can control the race. They implied that GB would simply ride with Cav and just look to pull back the leaders in the last 40K (not sure if 40K, 30K or 30 miles).

It looked touch and go to me whether that would be possible. 5 is a small team. It's easy to assume they'll be able to do it after watching TdF but unless they get help from Germany it'll be very hard. Riding slow enough to keep Greipel with them may work best for them.

I reckon Sagan will be up the road with Boonan and will win if GB don't pull them back. If there do pull them back only be 1 winner. Best bet will be in running - Cav if within 2 mins after Box Hill 9.

wonderfullife

i wonder how versatile teams will be tactically. If we look at GB, obviously their plan A is to deliver Cav for a sprint finish. What's plan B though? Is there one? With such small teams it's not like they can hedge their bets and send David Millar off in a break....or can they? It's high risk to deplete the chasing ability by risking sending a man down the road.

As for us, what's our Plan A? Get Dan Martin away in a break? It's a tough one to call from an Irish perspective. Definitely an interesting race to call, just wonder is there much fluidity in tactics on the day.

michaelm

scooters wrote: »

Going over on Thursday and going to cycle it on Friday morning, will report back on Friday evening what it is like.

May meet you on the way back! I'm hoping to do it Friday afternoon - and stay down there Friday night to watch the race on Sat. Still cheap flights to London - it is actually possible to do this in one day, pity about the cost of taking a bike- Ryanair ("a discounted rate of €50 each way").

C3PO

Anyone want to throw a guess as to how long the race will take? After the Tour I'm seriously overdrawn on the work/family front!

mcgratheoin

wonderfullife wrote: »

If we look at GB, obviously their plan A is to deliver Cav for a sprint finish. What's plan B though? Is there one?

In a word.... No.

wonderfullife wrote: »

As for us, what's our Plan A? Get Dan Martin away in a break? It's a tough one to call from an Irish perspective. Definitely an interesting race to call, just wonder is there much fluidity in tactics on the day.

Plan A - get Dan away in a break,
Plan B - Roche to sprint from a reduced peleton that's shelled a lot of the real sprinters out the back.

morana

wonderfullife wrote: »

As for us, what's our Plan A? Get Dan Martin away in a break? It's a tough one to call from an Irish perspective. Definitely an interesting race to call, just wonder is there much fluidity in tactics on the day.

Get both Nico and Dan away with DMC marking Sagan.........

but if you look at Nicos performance in the San sebastian classic after the tour he has always gone well. there is no reason why that shouldnt be the same on Saturday. Lets hope we can give those pesky brits a good hard lesson in bike riding!!!

Raam

C3PO wrote: »

Anyone want to throw a guess as to how long the race will take? After the Tour I'm seriously overdrawn on the work/family front!

We are your family now and we say watch the race.

C3PO

Raam wrote: »

We are your family now and we say watch the race.

Great .... where did you say "we" live?

elduggo

GetWithIt wrote: »

After the final stage on Sunday Eurosport had a piece where Rob Hayles and some fat bloke cycled the route.

yes, a woeful piece of television. The fat bloke was David Harmon. He will be insufferable commentating on this race. Might have to resort to Jimmy McGee on RTE.

scooters

michaelm wrote: »

May meet you on the way back! I'm hoping to do it Friday afternoon - and stay down there Friday night to watch the race on Sat. Still cheap flights to London - it is actually possible to do this in one day, pity about the cost of taking a bike- Ryanair ("a discounted rate of €50 each way").

I'm getting a lift over on Thursday and rail and sail back on Monday for £38 and the bike is free.

mcgratheoin

elduggo wrote: »

yes, a woeful piece of television. The fat bloke was David Harmon. He will be insufferable commentating on this race. Might have to resort to Jimmy McGee on RTE.

It'll surely be on BBC as well? Although they may be worse.... Will RTE bother bringing somebody in to provide decent analysis or will they take the usual cheap option I wonder.

TadhgSk

mcgratheoin wrote: »

elduggo wrote: »

yes, a woeful piece of television. The fat bloke was David Harmon. He will be insufferable commentating on this race. Might have to resort to Jimmy McGee on RTE.

It'll surely be on BBC as well? Although they may be worse.... Will RTE bother bringing somebody in to provide decent analysis or will they take the usual cheap option I wonder.

It will be on BBC Olympic 3.

ozzy jr

Is it classed as a team race? Will all members of the team get a medal if they win? Was looking at paddy power site and they're giving odds on individuals, not teams

Macy0161

mcgratheoin wrote: »

It'll surely be on BBC as well? Although they may be worse....

BBC usually have Hugh Porter commentating for their Worlds coverage.

ednwireland

ozzy jr wrote: »

Is it classed as a team race? Will all members of the team get a medal if they win?

no and no
individual medals only

mcgratheoin

ozzy jr wrote: »

Is it classed as a team race? Will all members of the team get a medal if they win?

No - same as an athletics race - some countries may opt to implement team tactics (Kenya/Ethiopia) but officially it's every man for himself...

riparooo

Our tactics should be;

1) Get Mc Cann in an early break.
2) Get Nico to ride full full out for three of the middle box hill circuits.
3) Get Dan to bridge the gap to Mc Cann on the second last circuit
4) Mc Cann to lead Dan to sprint victory.

or

1) Get Nico into a break.
2) Get Dan and Mc Cann to hang back.
3) Let Nico catch them
4) Dan and Mc Cann ride like madmen back to bring Nico back to the bunch.
5) Result: Nico has lapped the field
6) Nico follow the Sky (GB) team to Pall Mall and a Gold medal

buffalo

Do they have race radios and a DS for this?

petethedrummer

I'm going for Boassan Hagen.

buffalo

Sagan. He can climb, he'll get in a break, and he'll get the sprint. He'll spoil the party for GB!

riparooo

buffalo wrote: »

Do they have race radios and a DS for this?

According to the UCI no

mcgratheoin

riparooo wrote: »

Our tactics should be;

6) Nico follow the Sky (GB) team to Pall Mall and a Gold medal

All good up to there - if he stays with the GB team, then he'd have to do an extra lap of Box Hill...

Lusk Doyle

Raam wrote: »

We are your family now and we say watch the race.

The Movementarians!



He's our husband now!

dastardly00

Nice article on Cyclingnews.com about the Olympic Road Course.

Former pro Marcel Wüst rides the course and reckons that the pure sprinters could be out of contention by the time they finish the 9 laps of Box Hill, and the winner will come from a group of 30 or so riders.

“For a sprinter to get round that circuit nine times and stay in touch will be hard,” says Wüst ............ Wüst: “If you attack from the bottom of the hill, it’s 55km to the finish. That’s a really long time to try to stay away on flat roads.” ............ Wüst sees it ending up as a war of attrition, like a true Classic. “You could end up with a group of 30 going into London with no real sprinters,” he says.

Lusk Doyle

dastardly00 wrote: »

Nice article on Cyclingnews.com about the Olympic Road Course.

Former pro Marcel Wüst rides the course and reckons that the pure sprinters could be out of contention by the time they finish the 9 laps of Box Hill, and the winner will come from a group of 30 or so riders.

“For a sprinter to get round that circuit nine times and stay in touch will be hard,” says Wüst ............ Wüst: “If you attack from the bottom of the hill, it’s 55km to the finish. That’s a really long time to try to stay away on flat roads.” ............ Wüst sees it ending up as a war of attrition, like a true Classic. “You could end up with a group of 30 going into London with no real sprinters,” he says.

What a wust!

I'll get my coat.

Hungrycol

Lusk Doyle wrote: »

What a wust!

I'll get my coat.

Your profound insight into the Olympic cycling world is endless going by your last two posts in this thread