Jet Stream is moving North at last !

allthedoyles

Its been on Sky News - I presume this is good news . - Are we going to geta summer after all ?

Weather experts believe the jet stream, which has been blamed for the recent damp and cold spell, may move north this weekend, allowing more settled, warmer weather to move into the southern half of the country.

The Atlantic jet stream acts like a wall, separating wet and windy weather to the north from settled, sunny conditions to the south.

In a good summer, the jet stream sits to the north of Ireland , shielding us from inclement weather towards the North Pole

http://news.sky.com/story/960631/at-last-sunny-weather-on-the-way-for-uk

vicwatson

As predicted by MT Cranium about a week ago - Sky must be checking out boards.ie

darkman2

Arguably the far southeast of England might get marginally better weather but, back in the real world, there is no sign whatsoever of any break in the weather for the forseeable future for everyone else. It will happen eventually but as far as I can make out it's probably not happening for another two weeks at least! I will see about doing a full forecast for the next 9 days tomorrow with charts and all that. I am not optimistic though at all.

mike65

I know you're a bit obsessed with the worst the weather can throw at us Darkman but its pretty clear now there is tentative trend developing which sees the Azores high creep closer with a general "infill" of higher pressure across NW Europe

Redsunset

http://matthugo.wordpress.com/2012/07/17/late-july-and-early-august-12-whats-expected/

DOCARCH

Probably just means that all the rain and drizzle will move from the south and east to the west and north.

Sponge Bob

The Jet Stream moving north is great news. Were it to kindly bugger off up to the Faroes and stay there until February 2013 I would be vey grateful.

As for the meat and two veg. The current weather system streaming in towards Connacht and Ulster is slap bang under the Jet stream. As the stream was a tad further south until today these weather systems were carried across Munster and Leinster for much this month.

What we need is grey streak up across the North Atlantic and clear white space from Malin to Madeira at this time of year.

Here is the current stream as of 00z



Here is where it was yesterday.





Most of July was spent even further south down around the Pyrenees. Here is an example of what I mean from a week back.




Individual Jet stream charts are no great help in trend analysis.

I recommend you run a 10 day HISTORIC animation HERE to see what is really happening. 10 days at 12 Hour Intervals will clearly show the historic trend and as Darkman always says...'The Trend is your Friend'.

For a Jet Stream FORECAST I recommend the Meteociel GFS Dérivée which is available here. > http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=5 ...and which is not conclusive right now but looking more summer like. It certainly show the High Pressure and warm weather getting close to the south coast and starting to build up already.


HTH.

delw

Here's a good jet forecast from the BBC

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-18876550

Lucreto

Not too happy about this. I was lucky to survive this far into the summer as it is.

The good news from this is that I might get another BBQ this year and a better chance to a cold winter.

Sponge Bob

Where it gets interesting is that the Jet Stream is forecast ( GFS 18z I know) to wither away to nothing by around Tuesday next ( shown below) . This happens on occasion.

This would mean 2 things.

1. The Conveyor belt for crap coming rapidly in from the west shuts down.
2. The wall that resists a northward march of the Azores high crumbles.

OH....I forgot the third thing.

3. JUST IN TIME for the Galway Races.

But the graphic from Meteociel ( see my links post earlier in this thread), if maintained across future GFS runs, is good news for those hoping for dry and warm weather. If I reckon it is worth a "Level 1 Sunstroke Warning" I'll pass the tip to Darkman who was on the ball for our March heatwave IIRC.

Big Tone

With the Jet Stream in decline it's looking very good indeed for next week!

Sponge Bob

Here is a good example of what happens when the Jet Stream gets out of the way.

Jet stream Projection for Sunday 14:00 French Summer Time (12z GMT/UTC or 13:00 BST ..our time ) followed by the Pressure chart at the exact same time.

Notice how fast the Azores high pressure ridge rises into that gap left by the Jet Stream when the high pressure is close by anyway.

Looks very sweet from Weds next...start cleaning up that beach gear if the models hold the pattern.

ednwireland

DOCARCH wrote: »

Probably just means that all the rain and drizzle will move from the south and east to the west and north.

thats NOT a good thing

anyway as long as its reasonable for the olympics the week after next ! Dont fancy sitting outside all day in the rain

leahyl

I assume everybody has seen MT's forecast this morning??!!:eek: Possibly 28-30 degrees next week :eek::eek::D:pac:

Cantona's Collars

leahyl wrote: »

I assume everybody has seen MT's forecast this morning??!!:eek: Possibly 28-30 degrees next week :eek::eek::D:pac:

Told one of the relations that temps could be averaging mid 20's next week & he started complaining that it's gona be too warm:eek::eek: After all the rain & grey days I'd love that bit of sun & heat.Plus the farmers will be dancing in their fields:):)

eskimocat

Well I did mention I had put in a request for some sunny weather as I'll be on hols!
lol Ah the sheer willpower of eskimocat is awesome!! (<<<I wish!)

Sponge Bob

There won't be too many clouds for yeer festival either.

up for anything

Here's the real forecast. :pac:

km79

zerks wrote: »

leahyl wrote: »

I assume everybody has seen MT's forecast this morning??!!:eek: Possibly 28-30 degrees next week :eek::eek::D:pac:

Told one of the relations that temps could be averaging mid 20's next week & he started complaining that it's gona be too warm:eek::eek: After all the rain & grey days I'd love that bit of sun & heat.Plus the farmers will be dancing in their fields:):)

After a few days the farmers will start complaining about drought conditions ...

Speak Now

km79 wrote: »

After a few days the farmers will start complaining about drought conditions ...

Doubt it

Birdnuts

up for anything wrote: »

Here's the real forecast. :pac:

Certainly a good summary of the season so far:pac:

Big Tone

leahyl wrote: »

I assume everybody has seen MT's forecast this morning??!!:eek: Possibly 28-30 degrees next week :eek::eek::D:pac:

No. Where's the link to it?

YR are forecasting at least 20 degrees for next week, nothing near as high as 28 though :eek:

meercat

Big Tone wrote: »

No. Where's the link to it?

YR are forecasting at least 20 degrees for next week, nothing near as high as 28 though :eek:

last post here
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=79805658#post79805658

leahyl

Big Tone wrote: »

leahyl wrote: »

I assume everybody has seen MT's forecast this morning??!!:eek: Possibly 28-30 degrees next week :eek::eek::D:pac:

No. Where's the link to it?

YR are forecasting at least 20 degrees for next week, nothing near as high as 28 though :eek:

Ah it's on this forum ;-) at the top of the page - daily forecast :-)

Jpmarn

After a few days the farmers will start complaining about drought conditions ...[/Quote]
It will take us farmers quite a few weeks to start complaining about drought.

admiralofthefleet

up for anything wrote: »

Here's the real forecast. :pac:

should that not be united kingdom and ireland

the keen edge

Emm wrong forum!

Harps

Some good runs tonight with high pressure being pushed further east than on the past few days predictions. Still a bit far west for proper heat wave territory but a huge improvement due next week

North and west always at risk of some low cloud but even if there is some cloud it should still be warm, humid and dry for most

A nice end to tonight's ECMWF run

force eleven

The Donegal Postman has said the sheep have come down from the mountains and are queueing round the clock for a good shearing. 30 degrees is looking likely :rolleyes:;) then next week.

delw

force eleven wrote: »

The Donegal Postman has said the sheep have come down from the mountains and are queueing round the clock for a good shearing. 30 degrees is looking likely :rolleyes:;) then next week.

When i glanced at your post it thought at first it said "sh**ging"

lolie

delw wrote: »

When i glanced at your post it thought at first it said "sh**ging"

Nearly choked on me tea reading that

up for anything

admiralofthefleet wrote: »

should that not be united kingdom and ireland

I nicked it off FB. Haven't got the skill to do it myself or add in Ireland. I was just pleased that someone had given us weather, not like the days of old when on the UK weather we generally had none.

allthedoyles

Theres still rain in the forecast for Sunday / Monday next

mike65

We are in Ireland! Its just getting better not perfect That said apart from some light rain/drizzle late on Monday its been dry for nearly 4 days down here (falls over in shock!)

cherryghost

Looks like I was bang on the money about a week ago so :P Ok maybe not heatwave conditions but temperatures might easily hit the mid 20's.

The pattern has been emerging for the last 10 days now. We're almost at the lock-in point, thank god. I think we're long overdue it and we deserve it.

M.T. Cranium

The model consensus is good for warming Sunday to Tuesday, after that, there are divergent solutions.

The GEM and UKMO seem to favour a steady rise in temperatures in a developing warm to hot southeast flow as they push the ridge axis north of central Ireland and bring in the warmest sourced air mass across southern England into Ireland.

The GFS at 00z has a rather dodgy looking evolution that wipes out the gains made on Monday and Tuesday with a strong cut-off low splitting the ridge and forcing cooler air back from the northeast, no doubt with showers and moderate winds, towards Ireland.

The ECM (which is rated most reliable) says okay, maybe a little of that but not very much ... they keep the core of the warm high to the west of Ireland and so the flow is more northeast than southeast as with the warmest solutions. That would argue for more seasonable temperatures.

Usually we take a blend of possible outcomes which might suggest temperatures in the 22-25 C range each day for about a week from Sunday and possibly longer than that (away from cooler coastal zones). But my gut feeling is that the warmer solutions will verify and that higher temperatures could develop especially central and (by mid-week) western counties, possibly 26-30 at their maximum later in the week. At first the sea effect will be stronger in the south and west, but eventually it could swing around to the east coast where it would not be as strong anyway, just locally cooling breezes rather than large-scale incursions of marine air.

However, the GFS is not always wrong when odd man out, so we need to be cautious at this stage, just in case this gets laid on the table then yanked out of sight (ha ha, there's a pun in there). :cool:

The range of possible temperatures from different model runs at 00z for (as an example) Mullingar by Wed-Thurs is something like 16 to 29 C. That's not very reliable guidance for making a forecast but I will say most likely 23-27 and maybe higher.

sunbabe08

apart from 3 or 4 brief heavy showers on wedesday, totally dry down in youghal for the entire week:eek: shock to my system. any sunshine is good right now. so jet stream finally moving it's lazy backside away from us is all good in my book

Redsunset

Oh dear the 00z GFS is a horror show IMO.

Trough developing and moving right down over Ireland with high pressure staying further west. Hope it's a once off but my confidence has been rocked this morning.

mike65

Yep suddenly it looks very different. *sticks fingers in ears* na-na-na-na-na can't hear you.

To Alcohol

Redsunset wrote: »

Oh dear the 00z GFS is a horror show IMO.

Trough developing and moving right down over Ireland with high pressure staying further west. Hope it's a once off but my confidence has been rocked this morning.

In your view Redsunset would this be a short term horror show or another case of close but no cigar for Irish weather?

DOCARCH

Only one run and one model.

The trend has generally been good for the last while so would have to see a couple of runs before putting the BBQ away for this year.

nilhg

GFS has form on flip flopping from one run to the next and the operational 0z has very little support in the ensembles, personally I'd expect it to change over the next few runs.

MT, in my limited experience of high (+27C) temps in Ireland most of the time they tend to occur once the land has dried out and most of the suns energy goes to heating rather than evaporating moisture from the soil, I think we need a week or two to get to that stage yet.

DOCARCH

nilhg wrote: »

MT, in my limited experience of high (+27C) temps in Ireland most of the time they tend to occur once the land has dried out and most of the suns energy goes to heating rather than evaporating moisture from the soil, I think we need a week or two to get to that stage yet.

Very true! Was talking about this only in the last few days. The last time 30c was reached in Ireland was in July 2006 (afaik) but that was after about 6 weeks dry weather so the ground was very dry (which allowed the higher air temps).

Redsunset

To Alcohol wrote: »

In your view Redsunset would this be a short term horror show or another case of close but no cigar for Irish weather?

Waiting on the next run here. I should stress though that taking each run to heart can be detrimental to health.:D

Plenty of runs to go before this is nailed down but my eagerness for very fine weather has me somewhat impatient.

Big Tone

sunbabe08 wrote: »

apart from 3 or 4 brief heavy showers on wedesday, totally dry down in youghal for the entire week:eek: shock to my system. any sunshine is good right now. so jet stream finally moving it's lazy backside away from us is all good in my book

Not too bad if you're going to Youghal next week...but not great either...Thursday, Friday and Saturday the best days...then dull again for Sunday.

mike65

Wouldn't believe those "automated" forecasts, here's Waterford from some stupid site in the States.

http://www.weatherforecastmap.com/ireland/waterford/

edit - The latest run is better for longer with a blip from next Friday for about 4 days

Deep Easterly

Redsunset wrote: »

Plenty of runs to go before this is nailed down but my eagerness for very fine weather has me somewhat impatient.

A quick skim of the 12z run (GFS) reveals no great shakes either with some sort of trailing front (albeit in weakened form) having trouble moving completely away from our shores over the course of much of next week. This scenario seems to have a little support in the ECMWF 00z Ens as well but an equal number keeping trough potential further east. Will be an interesting one to keep an eye on I think to see how it pans out in the end, if not necessarily all that interesting in the actual weather experience.

ECMWF 00z Ensemble Mean MSLP for 144hrs (Next Thurs 00z)


Image from the ECMWF

leahyl

What a glorious day!! Summer has begun :-)

compsys

leahyl wrote: »

What a glorious day!! Summer has begun :-)

Not sure where u are but it's a poor enough day in Dublin. Cool and cloudy. Next weeks forecast is looking increasingly poor too. The jet stream has only moved away fron over London really. Not Ireland.

Sponge Bob

compsys wrote: »

Not sure where u are but it's a poor enough day in Dublin. Cool and cloudy. Next weeks forecast is looking increasingly poor too.

Looks great in the West, days of 20c+ temps from tomorrow onwards.

glossy

compsys wrote: »

Not sure where u are but it's a poor enough day in Dublin. Cool and cloudy. Next weeks forecast is looking increasingly poor too. The jet stream has only moved away fron over London really. Not Ireland.

nice on this side of Dublin.