2012/2013 Football log

Blatter

Right, said I'd start another one of these for the new season and try to improve my gambling techniques again. My last log was very successful, but some of the bets were still not researched well enough and were too spontaneous.

I'm going to start with a bank of €1000 and see what I can get it up to by the end of the season. I will try my best to get every single bet down on this log before the result comes in but if for whatever reason I was unable to do that, I will provide screen shots.

A few basic rules I've set for myself:

1 Always make sure a bet is above what I think the correct value should be. No point in betting on stuff that's at it's correct value as mathematically it's near impossible to make a profit in the long run.

2 Research almost all bets, with the exception of some live games where I see obvious value.

3 No betting on friendlies/games with very little to play for unless exceptional value is spotted.

4 Always be 100% objective. Never let passion dictate any of my bets.

5 Accept that I will lose sometimes and do not try to stupidly chase my losses. Always keep calm and collective.

6 Do not bet on a match/league that I know very little about and don't blindly follow tips. If I see a tip, I should research it myself first and see if I'm comfortable that there's value in it.

7 And finally, do not bet an amount on one market or one match that I just cannot afford to lose.


I have several bets on, all which are yet to run and I'll list them on the next post with screen shots attached as some of the prices have changed.

Blatter

Olympics

First off I have 17 on Brazil to win it out at 9/4 (Bwin). Not much explanation/reasoning needed here really. With Rafael, Thiago Silva, Sandro, Marcelo, Lucas Moura, Oscar, Ganso, Pato, Hulk and Neymar all in the squad they are by a distance the best side in the tournament.

20 on Spain to win it out at 11/4 (365). Have some excellent players going and I think the only other team that could win it ahead of these two is Uruguay

50 on Uruguay to top group A at 7/4 (Boyles). They are best price 5/4 now, so that was clearly a good price I got. I think they are by a distance the best team in group A and really should top the group.


15 Uruguay v United Arab Emirates -1 at 7/5 (Hills). I really like the Uruguay team and I think they'll have far too much for UAE, really should beat them comfortably. With Cavani and Suarez up front they have plenty of goals in them.

Great Britain v Senegal. I have several bets on this match as I think it will be an awful lot closer than the bookies' odds suggest. I really don't rate the GB team all that highly ability wise, and also think they will really struggle to gel as a team, as many have never played with each other before. On the other hand, Africa seem to have an U-23 CAF that took place last year, so at an educated guess, most of this Senegal team should know each other quite well. They also beat the Spanish Olympic team 2-0 in a friendly a few days ago. Obviously wouldn't read too much into friendlies, but at the same time they would have to have something about them to be able to beat Spain like that, friendly or not.

So I have 15 on Senegal to win at 7/1 (Boyles)
15 on Senegal double chance at 7/4 (Boyles)
5 on GB HT/Senegal FT at 100/1 (Boyles)
5 on Senegal HT/Senegal FT at 14/1 (Hills)
3 on Senegal to win 2-0 at 40/1 (Boyles)
3 on Senegal to win 2-1 at 22/1 (Boyles)


Right, that's all my Olympic bets for the moment. I'll stay away from it until I see how some of these play out.


I have a series of other transfer/league outright/league matches/WC qualifiers/Ballon D'or bets also, I'll detail them in my next post.

Blatter

300 on Paris Saint Germain to win Ligue 1 at 8/15. I just cannot see them not winning it. I think they were already strong favorites at the end of last season, as obviously they were expected to gel better this season with all the new players they bought/new manager. But now with the acquisitions of Thiago Silva, Verratti, Lavezzi and seemingly Ibrahimovic on his way to supplement the likes of Alex, Sakho, Maxwell, Thiago Motta, Sissoko, Menez and Pastore, I just cannot see a way in which they won't win the league at a canter. Add to that, Lille have lost Hazard and Joe Cole (one of their better performers last season) and Montpellier have lost their top goalscorer Giroud. I just think this is a solid investment, the gap in quality between PSG and their rivals is absolutely huge. Even if they don't gel properly, I still think they'll just have far too much quality not to win it.

100 on Messi to win the Ballon D'or at 11/10 (best price 4/5 now). I know people think Ronaldo could win it because he won the league and Messi didn't win a major(league or CL) trophy but I still can't see past a guy that got 73 goals and 29 assists last season getting this award. It has to be factored in that fellow professionals vote for this, and I think it's obvious that Messi is well liked more than Ronaldo, and is better anyway. Iniesta will get some votes as well, but just not nearly enough to win it ahead of Messi imo. Of course there's still a few more months of the year to be considered, if Messi got a bad injury/somehow hit a sustained poor run of form, the bet would be in trouble but I'm prepared to take that risk.

10 on Carroll not at Liverpool at 7/2

60 on Carroll not at Liverpool at 11/4 (more genuine speculation was rife)

12 on Carroll not at Liverpool at 9/4 (again, more speculation was mounting)

And then today, with the same bookmaker (Hills) I placed 70 on Carroll to remain at Liverpool at 6/5. Some turn around with those odds and now I'll get a nice tidy profit if he does leave before the first PL game of the season while being well covered.

Also 10 on Carroll to join Newcastle at 7/4 (Hills) - they are obviously interested as they put in a loan bid and reports suggest he's very open to a move back.

10 on Carroll to join West Ham at 12/1 (BV) (West Ham have confirmed their interest, they have the draw of London, Carroll's good friend Kevin Nolan plays there and Allardyce plays a system that he'd thrive in as a target man)

3 on Carroll to join Milan at 6/1 (Hills). This was a mistake, I just got a little too ahead of myself when the rumours of Zlatan leaving emerged coupled with the rumoured interest of Milan in the player. Classic 2+2=5 stuff. Never realistically going to happen.

5 on Zlatan to leave Milan this Summer at 5/1 (PP). On my twitter timeline I saw that L'Equipe were reporting that PSG were in for him and I remebered that price on PP. Since L'Equipe are a well respected source, I thought it was worth a fiver. Looks quite likely to happen now.

Also have a few match bets:

20 on PSG v Lorient -1 at 11/10 (365). Lorient finished 17th in Ligue 1 last season, PSG at home will want to get off to a good start - can see them winning by a few goals.

10 on PSG -2 at 14/5

5 on PSG -3 at 7/1

35 on PSG to win the CL at 25/1. This was for laying purposes later on. They have already shortened to best price 20/1 and I expect them to shorten again once the Zlatan transfer goes through as expected.


Had an early look at the WC qualifying odds (only available on Bwin atm), and I really like this double.

150 on Turkey v Estonia and Russia v Northern Ireland at 1.89 (Bwin). Estonia and N. Ireland are both absolutely dreadful and I'd be astonished if Turkey and Russia don't beat them at home.

Blatter

Forgot to add in my Tevez bet.

45 on Tevez to remain at Manchester City this Summer at 5/6 (Hills). Has maintained he's happy and wants to stay there for the last several months, Mancini claims he wants to keep him, on extremely high wages which would make a transfer to the likes of Milan more difficult, City will still as for £20+ million for him (and how many clubs will pay that for someone who has proven himself to be so unreliable in the past?).

I'd be relatively surprised if he left City this Summer so think 5/6 was pretty good value.

Have also thrown another 10 on Carroll to move to Newcastle at 7/4, I do think there's a very good chance of that happening.

Formation

30% of your bank tied up on a season long odds on bet?

Surely you could achieve a better ROI using that capital during the season?

I agree the bet is value but the opportunity cost is too high if you are a halfways decent punter.

Blatter

My bank figure isn't fixed. If I'm happy with how things are going after the first couple of months then I'll have no problem topping it up if I feel the need.

kryogen

Blatter wrote: »

My bank figure isn't fixed. If I'm happy with how things are going after the first couple of months then I'll have no problem topping it up if I feel the need.

Why bother having a bank at all then?

(Not criticising, curious)

Blatter

kryogen wrote: »

Why bother having a bank at all then?

(Not criticising, curious)

Just something to help me keep track of how much money I'm currently willing to invest into this. That figure is €1000 at the moment, but that could change in a couple of months.

Blatter

10 on Robert Lewandowski to join Milan at 25/1 (BV)

With Ibra on his way out, I think Lewandowski would be the type of replacement Milan will be looking at. I've seen a few tentative reports linking him with Milan as well, (here and here)

Don't expect this to happen at all, but definitely worth a tenner at 25/1.

L'prof

Best of luck with the log man, that's a fair wedge lumped down so far!

Blatter

Said I'd finally update he results of this:

Brazil to win Olympics @ 9/4 - lost 17

Spain to win Olympics @ 11/4 - lost 20

Uruguay to top group @ 7/4 - lost 50

Uruguay -1 v UAE @ 7/5 - lost 15

Senegal to beat GB @ 7/1 - lost 15

Senegal double chance @ 7/4 - won 26.25

GB HT/Senegal FT @ 100/1 - lost 5

Senegal to win 2-0 @ 40/1 - lost 3

Senegal to win 2-1 @ 22/1 - lost 3

Carroll not at Liverpool (on opening day of prem season) @ 7/2 - lost 10

Carroll not at Liverpool (on opening day of prem season) @ 11/4 - lost 60

Carroll not at Liverpool (on opening day of prem season) @ 9/4 - lost 12

Carroll at Liverpool (on opening day of season) @ 6/5 - won 84

Carroll to join Newcastle by end of window (loans count) @ 7/4 - lost 20

Carroll to join West Ham by end of window (loans count) @12/1 - won 120

Carroll to join Milan @ 6/1 - lost 3

Ibrahimovic to leave Milan @ 5/1 - won 25

PSG -1 v Lorient @ 11/10 - lost 20

PSG -2 v Lorient @ 14/5 - lost 10

PSG -3 v Lorient @ 7/1 - lost 5

Turkey/Russia double @ 1.89 - won 133.50

Tevez to remain at Manchester City this Summer @ 5/6 - won 37.5

Robert Lewandowski to join Milan @ 25/1 - lost 10




Overall Profit/Loss = + €143.25


Somehow, I made a decent profit from that. Made lots of stupid bets, particularly on the Olympics, despite what I said in my OP. Never betting so heavily on a tournament like that again, too difficult to predict.

The two big open bets of PSG to win the league and Messi to win Balon D'or are looking okay. Took PSG @ 8/15, they're now best price 1/4 and Messi is now best price 13/19, got him @ 11/10.

Might open up a new log seeing as I haven't used this for so long and those Olympic bets at the start will make me sick if I have to look at them much longer :pac: