Ireland's debt deal: What will the Left do now?

[Jackass]

Heads the ball wrote: »

They have not steadied the ship.

Unemployment, deficits, still in a program etc etc

You are joking, right? Short of handing a man a piece of dog poo and asking him to turn it into a fine fillet steak, you really are suggesting that they should have us completely in the black by now and have achieved full employment with debts cleared?

I think you're confusing "steadying the ship" with "Noonan pulling billions out of his asshole".

Heads the ball

[Jackass] wrote: »

You are joking, right? Short of handing a man a piece of dog poo and asking him to turn it into a fine fillet steak, you really are suggesting that they should have us completely in the black by now and have achieved full employment with debts cleared?

I think you're confusing "steadying the ship" with "Noonan pulling billions out of his asshole".

I dont see how one can assert that the ship has been steadied given our current levels of debt, unemployment, property market and our current lack of economic soverignty.

I think you are confusing "steading the ship"!

everdead.ie

Heads the ball wrote: »

I dont see how one can assert that the ship has been steadied given our current levels of debt, unemployment, property market and our current lack of economic soverignty.

I think you are confusing "steading the ship"!

I think you are confusing "steadying the ship" with "steadied the ship".

This is a massive step forward that could see us completly regain our economic soverignty by bringing our rates below 7% in the bond market(as it already has) and remove a huge chunk of debt off our books.

Heads the ball

everdead.ie wrote: »

I think you are confusing "steadying the ship" with "steadied the ship".

This is a massive step forward that could see us completly regain our economic soverignty by bringing our rates below 7% in the bond market(as it already has) and remove a huge chunk of debt off our books.

Ah so you agree that the ship is currently "unsteady" but they are working on steadying it? Its just [Jack] was hailing it as an acheivement.

The markets have been open 7 hourse since the deal has been struck and they are currently below 7%. Given the volatility of the markets I think you are getting a little carried away with yourself.

djpbarry

[Jackass] wrote: »

...they have done an extraordinary job...

They’ve done a decent job, but let’s not go nuts. They handled the introduction of the property charge badly and there’s still no real sign of welfare and public sector salary costs being seriously tackled.

djpbarry

Heads the ball wrote: »

Nowhere did I suggest that we should reverse welfare cuts.

Not explicitly, no.

Heads the ball wrote: »

I was simply asserting that the €1bn is in no way small when you consider the pain we have gone through in recent budgets...

Pain? I must have missed that. Unemployed people in Ireland are still taking home a minimum of €188 per week – ouch.

Heads the ball wrote: »

I dont see how one can assert that the ship has been steadied...

The economy will begin to grow again in the near future? Unemployment has been fairly static for 2 years? The budget deficit is falling?

What’s your definition of “steady”?

djpbarry

Heads the ball wrote: »

The markets have been open 7 hourse since the deal has been struck and they are currently below 7%. Given the volatility of the markets I think you are getting a little carried away with yourself.

I don't think the metaphor of "the ship" was being used to represent the markets.

everdead.ie

Heads the ball wrote: »

Ah so you agree that the ship is currently "unsteady" but they are working on steadying it? Its just [Jack] was hailing it as an acheivement.

The markets have been open 7 hourse since the deal has been struck and they are currently below 7%. Given the volatility of the markets I think you are getting a little carried away with yourself.

The economy has not recovered fully obviously but Fine Gael have had some great success in reducing our debt and turning the country around, jobs will come as consumer sentiment in Ireland and abroad improves.

I'm not getting carried away at all this is merely a first positive step by the EU and as they complete each step Ireland's bond rates will drop further especially as Fine Gael take on measures to balance the budget.

Just because we have to invest up to 11 billion in funds to this organization which will be taking up to 70 billion of debt of our backs by the way does not mean that money would have been re invested in increasing social welfare or any other of the cuts that have been made the country is still losing money and steps must be taken to not only balance the books but start making a surplus so we can pay off some of the budget deficits we have had in the last few years.

Heads the ball

djpbarry wrote: »

Not explicitly, no.

In fact not at all

djpbarry wrote: »

Pain? I must have missed that. Unemployed people in Ireland are still taking home a minimum of €188 per week – ouch.

Im not on a crusade for unemployed people. But if you have missed the pain of recent years then Im delighted for you because I dont know any one who has.

djpbarry wrote: »

The economy will begin to grow again in the near future?

Maybe. But maybe not.

djpbarry wrote: »

What’s your definition of “steady”?

Not our current situation

Heads the ball

everdead.ie wrote: »

The economy has not recovered fully obviously but Fine Gael have had some great success in reducing our debt and turning the country around

Can you name one way in which the economy has recovered in any meaningful, material way?

Can you point out one example of where FG has turned the country around?

Einhard

Heads the ball wrote: »

They have not steadied the ship.

Unemployment, deficits, still in a program etc etc

Heads the ball wrote: »

I dont see how one can assert that the ship has been steadied given our current levels of debt, unemployment, property market and our current lack of economic soverignty.

I think you are confusing "steading the ship"!

I don't think you understand the meaning of the term "steadying the ship". When the current government came into power, hundreds of thousands of jobs had been lost over the past 24 months, and the unemployment rate was 14.6%. The unemplyment rate has remained steady over the past 15 months or so, having been in freefall for months before that.

In 2010, the last full year of the FF/Green government, the deficit was close to €19 billion. This year is't expected to be closer to €13 billion.

Ireland's borrowing costs were 8.14% in November 2010, at which point the IMF and EU had to be called in. despite the continuing turmoil in the euro area, Ireland's borrowing costs today are closer to 6%.

There is also the not inconsiderable growth in exports over the past few years, the immeasurable but hugely significant (IMO) factor, of not lurching from one crisis to the next, or holding one's head in one's hand every time a government minister appears on the television to speak on an economic issue.

Fair enough, you might not like this government, but I don't think it can be argued that they have not steadied the ship since they acceded to power.

Heads the ball

Einhard wrote: »

I don't think you understand the meaning of the term "steadying the ship". When the current government came into power, hundreds of thousands of jobs had been lost over the past 24 months, and the unemployment rate was 14.6%. The unemplyment rate has remained steady over the past 15 months or so, having been in freefall for months before that. .

So its hit a floor at 14% - I still consider that level critical

Einhard wrote: »

In 2010, the last full year of the FF/Green government, the deficit was close to €19 billion. This year is't expected to be closer to €13 billion.

At a massive social cost

Einhard wrote: »

Ireland's borrowing costs were 8.14% in November 2010, at which point the IMF and EU had to be called in. despite the continuing turmoil in the euro area, Ireland's borrowing costs today are closer to 6%.

Far too early to get excited about this. You are looking at the rates charged in secodary markets. There is no guarantee that Ireland would get anywhere close to 6% in the morning if it tried to issue a bond.

Einhard wrote: »

Fair enough, you might not like this government, but I don't think it can be argued that they have not steadied the ship since they acceded to power.

Yes it can. We are still in a critical economic situation.

antoobrien

Heads the ball wrote: »

Can you name one way in which the economy has recovered in any meaningful, material way?

Employment levels stabilizing, new jobs coming on stream, GDP flat to marginally up and certainly not in free fall.

Laminations

Einhard wrote: »

Fair enough, you might not like this government, but I don't think it can be argued that they have not steadied the ship since they acceded to power.

At this point, for some people, any negative news is attributed to government failure and inaction and any positive news or deals are considered inevitable and attributed to outside influences. For others it's the opposite, blame Europe and the markets for our woes and praise the government for any improvements.

In reality it's a mix of both but either way we should really question ourselves when we can't welcome good news.

Heads the ball

antoobrien wrote: »

Employment levels stabilizing, new jobs coming on stream, GDP flat to marginally up and certainly not in free fall.

You didnt answer the question. You pointed out ways where it has not disimproved but remained flat.

I was calling out someone to show how it has RECOVERED (not just stayed flat)

Laminations

Heads the ball wrote: »

Yes it can. We are still in a critical economic situation.

you clearly don't understand what 'steadied the ship' means

Think of the medical phrase 'the patient has been stabilised but remains in a critical condition'

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Heads the ball

Laminations wrote: »

you clearly don't understand what 'steadied the ship' means

Think of the medical phrase 'the patient has been stabilised but remains in a critical condition'

You really dont understand the present situation

antoobrien

Heads the ball wrote: »

You didnt answer the question. You pointed out ways where it has not disimproved but remained flat.

I was calling out someone to show how it has RECOVERED (not just stayed flat)

I did, it's hardly my fault you don't understand that the first step of any recovery process is to stop dis-improving. So showing how things have not gotten worse is showing recovery. It's the bit that's hardest to recognise, the fact that things not getting worse is a good thing - it's the thing that gives hope and encouragement for the next phase - visible improvement.

darkman2

I heard SF on the radio earlier. They did not welcome a single element of the deal. Now i'm no great admirer of the government but to say there is nothing here is just delusional from them. Separating the banking and sovereign debt was always the key.

Never mind SF - the markets loved it today. I'd take the view of the market over SF any day of the week. As for Gerry Adams and Joe Higgins and the rest - they don't seem to have a clue how the real world works.

Laminations

Heads the ball wrote: »

You really dont understand the present situation

The present situation is that by all the indications (listed above) the ship has been steadied - we have stopped the slide. No one is claiming a victorious recovery here, just highlighting a piece of good news. Again how has the ship not been steadied?

V_Moth

I don't think this kind of ideological points scoring serves any purpose. The economic situation is still too fragile to be crowing about any successes.

jimmycrackcorm

There's still the austerity to complain about. However I'm waiting to hear Sinn Fein explain how pushing to vote against the fiscal treaty and the subsequent access to the stability fund looks now.

poeticseraphim

I hope the public are smart enough to see this deal as what we have been asking for Separating us from bank debt. And to realize we did not need to vote in nationalist extremists to accomplish it. I hope we see less support for SF in the polls.It is disconcerting the amount of people who honestly believe they represent the interests of the most vulnerable.

Sinn Féin refusing to acknowledge the benefits of this proves they don't care really about the welfare of this country at all.



I am to the left but not politically affiliated and to be honest it is erroenous to suggest all the the left don't think that there are too manyy councillors and many public sector jobs are too high....many institutions are too large.


As regards social benefits...i beleive in social justice....but also in the tax levels that come with it


As someone who is doing ok i expect to pay that.I feel i best protect my position in society by protecting the society i am in.

We do need structural reform in public services and in politics. The left is full of ridiculous figures such as Ming flanagan and disgraces like Mick Wallace. And of course Sinn Féin. As a person with left views in Ireland i still never to find a party i feel i can vote for.


I think private debt levels, failure to collect tax, mismanagment of public spending and corruption in the banking sector with a subsidised property sector led to this and we need to tackle it all.

But a lot of people still have trouble getting their heads around the fact that traditionally leftist politics around the world believe in social justice. And taxation comes with that.

We seem to want continental style services but American style taxes...you cannot have both.

darkman2

Makes you think - if SF or other far leftists were in power and opted to "burn the bondholders" where do you all reckon the country would be today? Because I think we would be in a far worse position than where we are now with the sensible dialogue and calmer heads prevailing. The government to give them credit have been calm and now the reward seems within touching distance. What we all wanted - the separation of the banking and sovereign debt.

I can only imagine how much worse the situation would be if any of those groups like SF were in power.

The WSJ is already saying the real winner with this deal when it is implemented is not Spain, not Italy - it's Ireland. That is why Irish bond yields fell most today. Because Ireland has done so much more heavy lifting than Spain and Italy have yet to do.

I think we are in a much better place today than 6 months ago. I think had some of the nuttier suggestions from opposition parties been acted on things would be far far worse than they are now.

Everyone has their own opinion. I'm delighted with what I heard this morning. I think this is the right road to recovery for Ireland rather than throwing the baby out with the bath water.

Kinski

darkman2 wrote: »

I heard SF on the radio earlier. They did not welcome a single element of the deal. Now i'm no great admirer of the government but to say there is nothing here is just delusional from them.

Doesn't seem like that's what their saying, judging from Gerry Adam's response (link helpfully includes Irish translation for those who don't speak English).

“Sinn Féin welcomes any increase in investment in job creation and reduction in the cost of the State’s debt burden. [...] [However] t appears that the Government is over selling the implications of the agreement for Ireland.

“It is clear that the Spanish and Italian governments have secured some movement from the German government and that this may have some positive implications for this state. However the detail of this has yet to be agreed."

darkman2

It was McDonald on with Sean O'Rourke. She came across bitter more than anything else.

Best username ever

The problem is and someone quote me if I'm wrong, We have agreed to pay off the terms of the bail out, yes or no? So austerity will not lift with this new deal. We still owe the 30bn Anglo bank debt (and the rest)

Italy basically told the EU the fúck off after seeing what happened in Greece when the debt was tied to the public. Now any "future" deal with Ireland will be separated from sovereign debt, but we are still screwed with the first bail out because it's a contract with us the IMF and the EU.



Please somebody explain this crap for me.

darkman2

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

There's still the austerity to complain about. However I'm waiting to hear Sinn Fein explain how pushing to vote against the fiscal treaty and the subsequent access to the stability fund looks now.

Good point. If that had been voted down the government would have found it difficult last night to come away with anything to say the least.

daltonmd

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Good post. But it also begs the question of what will FG - "No higher taxes", and Labour - "No SW and PS wage cuts,"do?

20Cent

darkman2 wrote: »

Good point. If that had been voted down the government would have found it difficult last night to come away with anything to say the least.

Why?
This is more to do with Spain and Italy than Ireland. They wouldn't be able to give them preferential treatment over us even if we had voted no.

daithicarr

What a pile of horse **** about government levelheadedness and about the left being proven wrong.

The government did nothing to achieve this, if Spain and Italy hadn't got into trouble we would have got nothing. we are getting scraps off the table. all the time we did what we were told and begged for some help, and got blank refusals.

Spain and Italy play hard ball from stage one and get what they want. we are just holding on to their coat tales.

hyperborean

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

See, right in the first sentence you are wrong, (as usual), the Irish left consists of much more....

How does anyone take you serious?

djpbarry

Heads the ball wrote: »

So its hit a floor at 14%...

Paint it any way you want – it’s still steady.

Heads the ball wrote: »

At a massive social cost

Where? Show me.

Heads the ball wrote: »

I was calling out someone to show how it has RECOVERED (not just stayed flat)

Nobody said the economy has recovered. What has been said is that the economy has steadied. Seems to me you’re arguing against a point that nobody has made.

mikom

Pride comes before a fall.

hyperborean

daltonmd wrote: »

Good post. But it also begs the question of what will FG - "No higher taxes", and Labour - "No SW and PS wage cuts,"do?

You actually think this was a good post! I am extremely interested as to the reasoning behind this. please elaborate, please

Blowfish

poeticseraphim wrote: »

But a lot of people still have trouble getting their heads around the fact that traditionally leftist politics around the world believe in social justice. And taxation comes with that.

That depends heavily on how you define social justice.

daithicarr wrote: »

What a pile of horse **** about government levelheadedness and about the left being proven wrong.

The government did nothing to achieve this, if Spain and Italy hadn't got into trouble we would have got nothing. we are getting scraps off the table. all the time we did what we were told and begged for some help, and got blank refusals.

Spain and Italy play hard ball from stage one and get what they want. we are just holding on to their coat tales.

Did you actually read the OP? He didn't mention anything to do with it being the government as opposed to Spain/Italy. It's actually pretty irrelevant to the discussion.

The point being made is simply that once the bank debt does get shifted off government books, we will still have a huge deficit. In that sense, the idea promoted that we could 'end austerity' is pretty much nonsense

hyperborean wrote: »

You actually think this was a good post! I am extremely interested as to the reasoning behind this. please elaborate, please

Very little of our deficit is due to the banks. This explains it pretty well.

Sand

Has an Irish debt deal been secured? Whose paying off our debt? When did this happen?

hyperborean

Blowfish wrote: »

That depends heavily on how you define social justice.
Did you actually read the OP? He didn't mention anything to do with it being the government as opposed to Spain/Italy. It's actually pretty irrelevant to the discussion.

The point being made is simply that once the bank debt does get shifted off government books, we will still have a huge deficit. In that sense, the idea promoted that we could 'end austerity' is pretty much nonsense
Very little of our deficit is due to the banks. This explains it pretty well.

#Good lad, ye see that is not what the OP said or implied, the post( has interesting parts and valid points of debate but the purpose was singular in its reasoning..... to engage is to tolerate the alan greenspan view of neo con libertarianism.

Greenspan being a complete failure

NIMAN

Thats the opposition's job, to complain about everything the Gov does.

Its is now the Left's job to make this sound like a bad deal to you and me. And they will do their damnest.

Blowfish

hyperborean wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Are you sure you're reading the same OP as I am? Here's what was said:

Permabear wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

hyperborean wrote: »

Greenspan being a complete failure

Indeed he was, but given that his concept of recovery involved stimulus through lowered interest rates, I'm not quite sure how that applies here or how you could realistically describe him as libertarian.

Monty Burnz

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

There's still the austerity to complain about. However I'm waiting to hear Sinn Fein explain how pushing to vote against the fiscal treaty and the subsequent access to the stability fund looks now.

They don't appear to have been asked by anyone.

Monty Burnz

hyperborean wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Much more than what??

Permabear wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Sinn Fein named, ULA named, and 'fellow travelers' = catch-all term for all spare lefties. Labour are in government. Who is left, exactly?

I suspect that the left will carp and complain, as is their prerogative. I also suspect that they'll wait and see where this all ends up. To be honest, we'd all be as well to wait and see what happens. I've lost count of the number of times that Europe does something, there's an initial positive reaction from the markets, we all say "woo hoo!", and then by the following week it's all doom and gloom again. We don't know if things will be any different this time, so let's not get cocky, eh?

Noreen1

Good point.

Actually, come to think of it - the debt has been transferred from the sovereign to the banks (or will be).

So, what percentage of the banks does the sovereign own?

It seems to me that the detail remains largely unknown, apart from the fact that the bank debt still remains to be paid.

The Irish banks are in no position to repay that debt - so who pays it?

[Jackass]

The reaction of the left to this deal has given me so much entertainment that I would actually pay a subscription fee just to read and listen to more of their rants.

Isn't it ironic that the "champions of the little man" are now the ones who are begrudging the potential saving grace of the Economy.

They are more interested in being anti-establishment and the voice of the people, than being rational and constructive.

Instead of saying, ok great, this is EXACTLY what we've been banging on about, this is EXACTLY what we wanted to happen, even though we made farcical claims about "burning Europe" and used suicide Economics to make our points, this is what we wanted, so we embrace every factor of the deal, they are instead irate at the thought of the problems being solved, irate that people may not be suffering for much longer, and it just exposes their own personal agenda and how they're "playing politics" more than anyone, whilst the people they are trying to discredit are getting results through negotiating and playing the game the only way it can be played. The fact that they haven't embraced this 100% just shows they haven't a clue, and are giving out just for the sake of it, and are more interested in furthering their own political agenda than in getting anything resolved.

[Jackass]

Regarding the debt now belonging to the banks, and not the state, but the banks being state owned, when banks are bailed out and brought back to profitability, even with massive burdens, the banks shares can be sold, we can't sell share's in the state, and that money will go straight to the exchequer, so instead of having direct responsabiliy for the debts, we have assets that are going concerns, without the debt hanging over our heads personally. (i.e. imagine the difference of being in massive debt as a sole trader, vs being director / shareholder in a LTD company with massive debts, it still affects you, but it's not your personal debt, and no one can come after you personally for the money - which is essentially the effect this deal will have on the country. The debt is no longer going to be on our spreadsheet as something we need to pay - it is the debt of an asset that we own, but we're not liable for it).

CiaranC

Are Labour not part of "the left" any more, or does its makeup change to suit peoples argument on here?

[Jackass]

Well, I think it's blatantly obvious that people are talking about the far left (the OP names them in the opening post). Labour are centre-left, and have not put forward the type of rhetoric that people are referring to. I thought that much was obvious.

Gunmonkey

Noreen1 wrote: »

Good point.

Actually, come to think of it - the debt has been transferred from the sovereign to the banks (or will be).

So, what percentage of the banks does the sovereign own?

It seems to me that the detail remains largely unknown, apart from the fact that the bank debt still remains to be paid.

The Irish banks are in no position to repay that debt - so who pays it?

From my understanding of the deal, where we borrowed the €45 billion or so to bailout the banks (plus the €20 billion from the pension fund), that was a debt directly attributed to the state which we just happened to use to bailout the banks. Whoever we borrowed from could come along and take that debt straight from our budget, even if it wasnt attributed to the banks, it was just part of the debt we owed.

Now, that €45 billion is routed through the banks. We still owe the money, but the creditors cant take say "sack all your public servants, no more welfare" to get their money back, it has to come from the states assets in the banks. So either they get a percentage of each years profits or can take the banks as debt, not 100% on how that will be paid. plus since its seperate, we can negotiate it independant of our sovergin debt and get a better deal on the €45 Billion.

Basically, we still owe the money but its €45 Billion less on top of our existing debts, so the interest payments will be smaller as less money owed as our soverign debt.

I think.

invinciblePRSTV

[Jackass] wrote: »

Well, I think it's blatantly obvious that people are talking about the far left (the OP names them in the opening post). Labour are centre-left, and have not put forward the type of rhetoric that people are referring to. I thought that much was obvious.

Let's take a reality check and remember who the OP is before giving this thread any consideration.

The OP has previously classified FF as 'socialist', and all political parties which don't subscribe to a particular bonkers ideology (which we won't name) as 'statists', which appears to be a proxy name for anyone or any entity which advocates state involvement in anything in the public sphere. This would presumably include FG as well which the OP has publicly supported on here on numerous occasions.

So this means, by the bye, that if the OP is ranting about 'the left', then he's really moaning about the political party he supports?

Or it could mean OP is just looking for a reason to attack the big bad 'left' bogeyman construct which is a central tenet of his ideology. It's a schtick that is getting rather boring from this particular poster at this stage.....