July 2012 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT for July, the 1981-2010 average was 15.2 C.

2. Predict the maximum temperature for July at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the minimum temperature for July at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the rainfall as percentage of normal values, as reported for eleven met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

5. Predict the sunshine as percentage of normal values, as reported for however many met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

6. Bonus question. (Reykjavik is the capital of Iceland ...) (TV show joke) ...

actual bonus question ... The GAA Leinster hurling final is set for Sunday 8th of July at Croke Park (so Danno tells me, in an improvement over Irish Tourist Board, ahem) ... predict the highest temperature for the day at Dublin(A) and rainfall for the 24-hr day in mms.

TEMPLATE ...

IMT .... MAX .... MIN .... PRC .... SUN .... Dub 8th T/r (e.g. 23.5, 0.8)

Lenient deadline rules due to the weekend and me not knowing if Monday is a bank holiday there so ... no penalties at all until end of Monday 2nd, then "late" day is Tuesday 3rd and last chance "late late" day is Wed 4th. Same penalties as usual, all one day later.

Danno

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The GAA Leinster hurling final is set for Sunday 15th of July at Croke Park (so they tell me)

Hi MTC, the Leinster Hurling final is on July 8th... http://www.leinster.gaa.ie/leinster-gaa-championship-fixtures-2012/leinster-gaa-shc-2012.257.html

octo

Regarding the bonus question, is that at Dublin Airport station?

M.T. Cranium

So in this link below

http://www.irishtourist.com/event_calendar/leinster_gaa_hurling_championship_final.shtml#37195

is that wrong information or a different event?

Everyone wait until I find out more about this 15 July event listed above, we may have to scrap that bonus question.

(edit ... I am guessing this link has the wrong date (whoops) ... I didn't google for this event, I googled for events in July and got this one from the link above ... expect others will confirm this from checking two other sources, I see they also have 8 July at Croke Park and 15 July for Munster -- so here's what will happen, we will just go with 8 July for Dublin instead, despite the later deadlines. and yes it would be Dublin (A) although I'm guessing Phoenix Park is closer? I don't want to use a station that might not report on the day, but how different can they be in July?

Okay carry on, will edit or resubmit the original page.

(Irish tourist board, grr, hope you don't get people booking into hotels for that phantom event)

Danno

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

So in this link below

http://www.irishtourist.com/event_calendar/leinster_gaa_hurling_championship_final.shtml#37195

is that wrong information or a different event?

Everyone wait until I find out more about this 15 July event listed above, we may have to scrap that bonus question.

Wrong info on that page MTC...

July 8th is definitely the proper date! You could go for July 11th, the U21 Final between Laois and Kilkenny!

pauldry

15.5 .... 25.1 .... 3.4 .... 116 .... 99 .... 17.8, 0.0

M.T. Cranium

Okay, just to be clear, the bonus question was edited before anyone posted a guess and I assume everyone will read that edited version (probably for the first time anyway, it's early for most people) -- the date has shifted to the 8th of July (see original post).

Sponge Bob

Helpful hint. The highest temperature recorded so far in JUNE is the 22.8c reached yesterday at Dublin Airport .....and 20mm of rain fell too.

jd

15.8 .... 27.1 .... 4.4 .... 118 .... 98 .... 21.8, 0.0

Strasser

16.0 .... 24.3 .... 5.5 .... 100 .... 100 .... 18.8, 5.0

Hammer Archer

15.5 .... 24.3 .... 5.3 .... 146.... 90 .... 19.1, 2.3mm

traecy1

15.4....26.4....4.6....85....105....21.5,0.0
with the tribesmen to bring the Leinster cup west of the Shannon to Connacht.:p

Gonzo

15.2 .... 23.4 .... 3.7 .... 162 .... 76 .... 16.4, 7.2mm

Bsal

15.4 .... 22.9 .... 5.1 .... 104 .... 112 .... 17/0.2

dasa29

16.0 .... 25.5 .... 3.0 .... 150.... 100 .... 20.5, 1.5mm

200motels

dasa29 wrote: »

16.0 .... 25.5 .... 3.0 .... 150.... 100 .... 20.5, 1.5mm

16.8...4.5....140....89.....22.8.....1.6

talkabout

15.8...25.8....5.0....94.....100.....18.2/0.3mm

cherryghost

15.6.....26.5....5.....90%....110%....18.1/no precip

dacogawa

200motels wrote: »

16.8...4.5....140....89.....22.8.....1.6

I'm no mathematician but I think you've missed a few bits there 200motels!

Harps

15.9 .... 27.4 .... 4.9 .... 115 .... 110 .... 22.4/Tr

H2UMrsRobinson

IMT 16.1 MAX 24.2 MIN 6.4 PRC 150% SUN 87% Dub 8th T/r 18.4, 15mm

Iancar29

16.3 : 26.2 :7.4 :120 : 85 : T/r 18.5, 4mm

M.T. Cranium

200motels, can't send you a PM, please edit in your max temperature for July or post it ... a reminder to all, deadlines are shifted back one day due to the weekend ... here's my guess.

15.8 .... 27.2 .... 4.5 .... 120 .... 105 .... 18.0/1.5

okla

15.6...25.3...5.2...140...110...16.8,8mm

jambofc

15.3 .... 28.0 .... 4.2.... 125 .... 100 .... 16.7/2.1mm

homolumo

15.4 .... 27.9 .... 6.0 .... 115 .... 109 .... 18.9,2

K_1

15.0 .... 25.0 .... 6.5 .... 100 .... 100 .... 19.0/0.0

snowstreams

IMT 15.3 MAX 27.8 MIN 4.4 PRC 115 SUN 95 Dub 8th 21/0mm

Tae laidir

16.0 .... 27.0 .... 5.3 .... 88 .... 109 .... 16.6/0.9

SeaFields

14.5 .... 28.5 .... 5.0.... 150 .... 70 .... 19.7, 0.00

mickger844posts

15.9 ....25.2 .... 4.1 .... 158 .... 79 .... 20.8. 0mm

pauldry

pauldry wrote: »

15.5 .... 25.1 .... 3.4 .... 116 .... 99 .... 17.8, 0.0

Could I be mad MT and put 201 per cent down for rain!??!

Or am I too late

Lumi

15.7 .... 26.3 .... 4.0 .... 139 .... 90 .... 20.0, 0.2

Rikand

15.2 ..... 25.0 ...... 3.5 ...... 160 ...... 98 ...... 18.9/1.0mm

nilhg

16.1 .... 26.9 .... 6.3 .... 90 .... 110 .... 19.5, 0.8

M.T. Cranium

pauldry wrote: »

Could I be mad MT and put 201 per cent down for rain!??!

Or am I too late

All forecasts can be amended up to the end of 2nd this month (usually it would be to end of today). Shall I consider this your amended forecast?

Amendments made on "late" day would bump your entire forecast into that penalty category so I don't recommend it since your potential gain could be less than the penalty. Same goes double for amendments on "late late" day, I can't imagine too many cases where that penalty would be attractive to a late amendment. But in any case, people are free to make them. One exception (as outlined in an earlier case) is no changes can be made to take advantage of observed temperatures, high or low, and this is left as a self-regulating thing given the edit function which I don't necessarily monitor, but let's say that on the 2nd, the min is known to be 4.2 and you said 5.2, you can't then change to 4.2, but there's nothing to stop a later entrant from using that figure. May seem unfair, but this is what we all decided after a discussion about a similar case.

pauldry

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

All forecasts can be amended up to the end of 2nd this month (usually it would be to end of today). Shall I consider this your amended forecast?

Amendments made on "late" day would bump your entire forecast into that penalty category so I don't recommend it since your potential gain could be less than the penalty. Same goes double for amendments on "late late" day, I can't imagine too many cases where that penalty would be attractive to a late amendment. But in any case, people are free to make them. One exception (as outlined in an earlier case) is no changes can be made to take advantage of observed temperatures, high or low, and this is left as a self-regulating thing given the edit function which I don't necessarily monitor, but let's say that on the 2nd, the min is known to be 4.2 and you said 5.2, you can't then change to 4.2, but there's nothing to stop a later entrant from using that figure. May seem unfair, but this is what we all decided after a discussion about a similar case.

If im into late day leave it as the old one. Just looked at charts and they are ominous.

Leave me at whatever I had before its OK.

delw

15.5....25.9....4.5....110%.....95%......18c/ 0.5mm

M.T. Cranium

Pauldry, you can change to 201% without penalty, that only applies after the end of today (Monday 2nd). Same goes for anyone else, free changes because I don't even make up a table until after late entries.

Speak Now

14.8 .... 25 .... 5 .... 130 .... 80 .... 17.5/8

MiNdGaM3

15.5 .... 24.8 .... 4.0 .... 123 .... 88 .... 17.9, 12

dacogawa

16.4 ..... 29.2 ..... 3.9 ..... 150 ..... 101 ..... 16.1/5.0mm

Sponge Bob

15.1....24.1....3.9....137.....85......17.1/2.3

kindredspirit

15.5 ... 26.5 ... 5.0 ... 110 ... 90 ... 18/6

Danno

IMT 15.4c.... MAX 26.7c.... MIN 7.7c.... PRC 160%.... SUN 105%.... Dub 8th 18.6c, 3.1mm.

Kilkenny 7-23 v 3-14 Galway

waterways

15.5 .... 26.0 .... 5.1 .... 128 .... 95 .... 17.4, 1.1

lostinashford

15.3…26.3…4.4…165…87…16.7,7

DOCARCH

15.5 .... 29.1 .... 4.3 .... 110 .... 98 .... Dub 8th 20.2/2.1

Joe Public

15.9 .... 29.9 .... 5.9 .... 150 .... 89 .... 21.9, 8.9

M.T. Cranium

July contest entries
___________________________

Forecaster ........... IMT ... MAX ... MIN ... PRC ... SUN ... Dub-8th
______________________________________________________________


200motels ........... 16.8 ... 25.5 ... 4.5 ... 140 ... 089 .... 22.8...1.6
dacogawa ........... 16.4 ... 29.2 ... 3.9 ... 150 ... 101 .... 16.1...5.0
redsunset* .......... 16.4 ... 26.0 ... 6.0 ... 160 ... 090 .... 19.0...4.0
Iancar29 ............. 16.3 ... 26.2 ... 7.4 ... 120 ... 085 .... 18.5...4.0
Deep Easterly ...... 16.1 ... 26.9 ... 6.2 ... 110 ... 100 .... 18.3...3.4
H2UMrsRobinson ... 16.1 ... 24.2 ... 6.4 ... 150 ... 087 .... 18.4..15.0
nilhg ................... 16.1 ... 26.9 ... 6.3 ... 090 ... 110 .... 19.5...0.8
John mac* ........... 16.1 ... 26.2 ... 4.2 ... 121 ... 089 .... 18.7, 1.1
dasa29 ................ 16.0 ... 25.5 ... 3.0 ... 150 ... 100 .... 20.5...1.5
Strasser .............. 16.0 ... 24.3 ... 5.5 ... 100 ... 100 .... 18.8...5.0
Tae laidir ............. 16.0 ... 27.0 ... 5.3 ... 088 ... 109 .... 16.6...0.9
Harps .................. 15.9 ... 27.4 ... 4.9 ... 115 ... 110 .... 22.4...0.05
mickger844posts ... 15.9 ... 25.2 ... 4.1 ... 158 ... 079 .... 20.8...0.0
Joe Public ............ 15.9 ... 29.9 ... 5.9 ... 150 ... 089 .... 21.9...8.9
jd ....................... 15.8 ... 27.1 ... 4.4 ... 118 ... 098 .... 21.8...0.0
talkabout ............. 15.8 ... 25.8 ... 5.0 ... 094 ... 100 .... 18.2...0.3
M.T. Cranium ........ 15.8 ... 27.2 ... 4.5 ... 120 ... 105 .... 18.0...1.5
Lumi ................... 15.7 ... 26.3 ... 4.0 ... 139 ... 090 .... 20.0...0.2
cherryghost ......... 15.6 ... 26.5 ... 5.0 ... 090 ... 110 .... 18.1...0.0
okla .................... 15.6 ... 25.3 ... 5.2 ... 140 ... 110 .... 16.8...8.0
DOCARCH ............ 15.5 ... 29.1 ... 4.3 ... 110 ... 098 .... 20.2...2.1

Con Sensus ......... 15.5 ... 26.0 ... 4.6 ... 122 ... 098 .... 18.2...1.5

kindredspirit ......... 15.5 ... 26.5 ... 5.0 ... 110 ... 090 .... 18.0...6.0
waterways ........... 15.5 ... 26.0 ... 5.1 ... 128 ... 095 .... 17.4...1.1
MiNdGaM3 ............ 15.5 ... 24.8 ... 4.0 ... 123 ... 088 .... 17.9..12.0
delw .................... 15.5 ... 25.9 ... 4.5 ... 110 ... 095 .... 18.0...0.5
pauldry ................ 15.5 ... 25.1 ... 3.4 ... 201 ... 099 .... 17.8...0.0
Hammer Archer ...... 15.5 ... 24.3 ... 5.3 ... 146 ... 090 .... 19.1...2.3
traecy1 ................ 15.4 ... 26.4 ... 4.6 ... 085 ... 105 .... 21.5...0.0
Danno .................. 15.4 ... 26.7 ... 7.7 ... 160 ... 105 .... 18.6...3.1
Bsal ..................... 15.4 ... 22.9 ... 5.1 ... 104 ... 112 .... 17.0...0.2
homolumo ............. 15.4 ... 27.9 ... 6.0 ... 115 ... 109 .... 18.9...2.0
lostinashford ......... 15.3 ... 26.3 ... 4.4 ... 165 ... 087 .... 16.7...7.0
jambofc ................ 15.3 ... 28.0 ... 4.2 ... 125 ... 100 .... 16.7...2.1
snowstreams ......... 15.3 ... 27.8 ... 4.4 ... 115 ... 095 .... 21.0...0.0
Rickylovesuall ........ 15.2 ... 25.0 ... 3.5 ... 160 ... 098 .... 18.9...1.0
Gonzo .................. 15.2 ... 23.4 ... 3.7 ... 162 ... 076 .... 16.4...7.2
Sponge Bob .......... 15.1 ... 24.1 ... 3.9 ... 137 ... 085 .... 17.1...2.3
K_1 ..................... 15.0 ... 25.0 ... 6.5 ... 100 ... 100 .... 19.0...0.0
rameire* .............. 14.9 ... 24.9 ... 3.7 ... 132 ... 086 .... 12.2...7.0
Jerry Seinfeld ........ 14.8 ... 25.0 ... 5.0 ... 130 ... 080 .... 17.5...8.0
SeaFields ........,..... 14.5 ... 28.5 ... 5.0 ... 150 ... 070 .... 19.7...0.0

___________________________________________

* late entries, these are still welcome to 0300h, penalty for scores >60
** late-late entries are possible this month on Wednesday the 4th, max bonus 7/10, pen >50

John mac

16.1 .... 26.2 .... 4.2 .... 121 .... 89 .... 18.7, 1.1

Can't believe i'm late.!!