Royal Ascot

Nulty

Some RUK previews on Skysports.com

http://www.skysports.com/video/inline/0,26691,19978,00.html

My opinions on the Kings Stand

UrbanSea

Ortensia at 6/1 was one of the bets of the festival I thought each way

Nulty

My thoughts on the Queen Anne

Goldcupfav

Think the 14/1 about Bungleinthejungle in the Windsor Castle tomorrow is one of the each way bets of the festival for me.

Nulty

UrbanSea wrote: »

Ortensia at 6/1 was one of the bets of the festival I thought each way

Yeah, she looks serious. Star Witness was beaten in this last year though, I wouldn't be surprised to see her win by more than a length but I felt it was the type of race to go big in the price department.

mr.jingle

UrbanSea wrote: »

Ortensia at 6/1 was one of the bets of the festival I thought each way

They were talking about this horse highly on the racing channels that if Balck Caviar wasn't racing over here this week that they would all be talking about this horse! 6/1 is a cracking price especially with Bated Breath not running on his most favourable ground if its in any way soft

UnitedIrishman

Ortensia, Dragon Pulse, Strong Suit (e/w or w/o Frankel) and Bungleinthejungle for me tomorrow.

Very keen on Dragon Pulse - beat what I felt was one of the most impressive horses of last year, Dabirsim, earlier this year. Not far behind the favourite last year either.

mr.jingle

Hannon 2yo's on fire at the moment another 2 from 2 tonight at Windsor. Think i shall stick with his 2yo's blindly for the week they seem very sweet on Sir Prancelot and Richard Hughes just said Strong Suit WILL finish 2nd to Frankel tomorrow! Very straight with that answer so he was and was very bullish for the upcoming week

Morleystreet

Will record and watch it tomorrow night. Will ave an accum on wizz kid, power, sir prancealot and cosimo de Medici!

d-gal

mr.jingle wrote: »

Hannon 2yo's on fire at the moment another 2 from 2 tonight at Windsor. Think i shall stick with his 2yo's blindly for the week they seem very sweet on Sir Prancelot and Richard Hughes just said Strong Suit WILL finish 2nd to Frankel tomorrow! Very straight with that answer so he was and was very bullish for the upcoming week

Sir prancealot needs good ground to be effective and feel it will be just that lil bit soft.
Really liked lines of battle maiden, bet leitir mor so easily that day.

Frankel race I reckon il go with worthadd, came 2nd to canford cliffs last year and putting a line thru his last race (heard there was stall trouble right before broke according to Demuro)

Nulty

Thoughts on the St. James' Palace

Colonel Sanders

Not a flat punter but always like the 2yo races just to watch

Coventry tomorrow looks a very hot race. I'll watch with great interest

UrbanSea

I think the two that Ballydoyle have in the Coventry looked really good first time out

UrbanSea

mr.jingle wrote: »

Hannon 2yo's on fire at the moment another 2 from 2 tonight at Windsor. Think i shall stick with his 2yo's blindly for the week they seem very sweet on Sir Prancelot and Richard Hughes just said Strong Suit WILL finish 2nd to Frankel tomorrow! Very straight with that answer so he was and was very bullish for the upcoming week

Strong Suit is a classic example of a top class 7 furlong horse who doesn't get a mile I think. The Foret is his only shot at a Gr.1 I've thought for the last year

rossom

5.00 Ascot

Western Pearl 16/1

Really like the look of William Knight's relatively unexposed 5 year old who I think looks very nicely handicapped off a mark of 90. Despite never racing beyond 1m7.5f in his career to date and landing on a maiden so far in his career, I think the significant step up in trip to 2m4f looks sure to suit and I definitely envisage a big run is on the cards. Raced once as a 2 year old, Western Pearl landed a maiden at Ffos Las on his 4th career start as a 3 year old in fine style over 1m4f and he followed that up with a good handicap debut off a mark of 85. He was stepped straight into Listed Class and upped to 1m6f on his next start when running an excellent 3rd behind Harris Tweed on soft ground at Newmarket and it was a really good effort given the first two home were rated 112 and 100 respectively. His next two starts in Listed contests were decent if not spectacular but he put in a tremendous effort in Listed handicap after this off a mark of 92 at York that reads extremely well. Over the 1m6f trip, Western Pearl stayed on very well from midfield and he was never nearer than at the finish when going down by 3.5L in a race that suited those who were prominent as the first two home occupied those positions the whole way round. The form of that race is extremely strong with the winner Tactician following that effort up with a 2nd in the Ebor off a 6lb higher mark whilst the 2nd Fox Hunt finished 0.5L beaten in a Group 2 behind Opinion Poll on his next start and landed a couple of Group 3s subsequently before he tragically lost his life at Meydan earlier this year. The form of that race has been franked by several horses in behind and it really showed that a step up in trip would suit.

After this Western Pearl competed in three more Listed contests and he ran respectably in two whilst one was an absolute no show before he went over to France where he again ran in Listed contests. The first he was stepped up to 1m7.5f, the longest distance in his career to date, as he finished a respectable 7.5L beaten 5th. Although I haven't seen a video of this race, he was sent of an 87/1 shot and the RP comments say he stayed on well under pressure in the straight without getting to the leaders on the heavy ground so it looks a good effort. On his final start as a 4 year old, Western Pearl put up a cracking effort to finish a 3/4L beaten 3rd at Fontainebleau in a Listed contest last November on very soft ground. The form of that race looks very strong in the context of todays race with the 2nd Molly Malone finishing behind the talented Allied Powers in a Group 3 on her next start and she followed that up with an excellent 1.5L beaten 3rd in a Group 3 at Haydock earlier this month. Western Pearl has shaped as if he has needed his two reappearance runs this year, the latest an encouraging effort over an inadequate 1m4f trip 10 days ago at Haydock and I definitely think he will strip fitter for those efforts.

Given Western Pearl has to race off a mark of 90 in a handicap, his efforts in the Listed contests coupled with his excellent 3rd in a race that is working out very well off a 2lb higher mark make me think he is definitely well handicapped. Although there is an obvious risk he may not stay the 2m4f trip, he has definitely shaped as if he would. Moreover, his half sister won over 2m as a 3 year old so breeding also suggests that the step up in trip is likely to suit. Frankie Dettori takes the ride tomorrow on William Knight's 5 year old and he is an extremely eye catching jockey booking. Frankie has had two rides for Knight in the past 5 year, once in 2010 and the other in 2008 so its definitely clear in my eyes that Knight really fancies a very big showing. The ground tomorrow shouldn't be any issue as he has form on all types although I wouldn't want it to get too soft just in case the trip is on the cusp of his stamina limit. I think its pretty much guaranteed that most of this field have a couple of lbs in hand from the handicapper and although I am convinced Western Pearl is definitely better than his current mark he may run into a couple who have even more in hand which is an obvious risk, but that is to be expected in such a competitive field. With form in the book reading very well in my eyes and the step up in trip definitely entitled to bring out significant improvement, I'm confident of a big showing from William Knight's sole runner at Royal Ascot tomorrow.

Other fancies for Royal Ascot which I won't have time to do write ups for

3.05 Little Bridge 14/1
4.25 Dawn Approach 9/2 & King Dragon 50/1
5.35 Ajmany 18/1

hucklebuck

Excelebration looks a great bet, 1/1 w/o or 1/2 ew.

Born to sea if the ground is gs/gd looks great value at 8/1.

Slattsy

I wouldn't normally advise or back an even money shot, but Excellebration looks a smashing bet to follow Frankel home again. He travelled as well as Frankel last time, but obviously doesn't have the same finish. Strong Suit won't stay, especially with the ground a bit soft.

Also think Dawn Approach will take the beating, as I've been impressed with his attitude, and the ground is ideal as he prob wants further already. O'Briens horses are the dangers.

I might give Hermival another chance in the St James Palace. On the 2000 guineas running he probably should.be favourite.

And in the last I'll go for Dylanbaru. Always worth following a Stack horses when he sends one over, he must have a squeak in a tricky race.

Nulty

My thoughts on the Ascot Stakes

AGC

3.45 Power, bar one stinker this looks good

ThinkAboutIt

backing Most Improved in the 3.45
read a good preview to add to the sky sports one mentioned here http://gamblerfalls.com/royal-ascot-preview-19th-of-june/

Johner

Been looking forward to seeing Sir Prancealot in the Coventry since his win at Sandown and am happy with the odds I have on him.

maalummoja

2.30 FRANKEL
3.05 SOLE POWER E/W
3.45 BORN TO SEA E/W
4.25 DAWN APPROACH
5.00 WESTERN PEARL
5.35 LYRIC ACE

tryfix

I really like Bated breath as a horse. There are a few things against him today, but if Ortensia doesn't do an Aussie steamroller job on the European sprinters he's the one who should take the Kings Stand at 6/1.

Born To Sea is worth a nibble in the St James Palace stakes. He hasn't looked a proper GP1 horse since his debut, but Oxx could have gone for a softer option like the Jersey Stakes for him if he didn't think he was up to it.

O'Briens Cristoforo Colombo at 7/1 in the Coventry is worth considering as is his Parliament Square in the Windsor Castle at 12/1. His run behind Dawn Approach has to have been a blip or else he wouldn't be running here as the sole Ballydoyle runner in the race.

I always find it interesting when O'Brien has a horse by a non-Coolmore stallion, Parliament Square is a son of Acclamation, quite an unusual sire for Coolmore to be getting involved with.

mike65

ROYAL ASCOT 14:30 QUEEN ANNE STAKES (GROUP 1) 1m
Excelebration @ 6.50 (GP) (a token pick just in case!)

ROYAL ASCOT 15:05 KINGS STAND STAKES (GROUP 1) 5f
Joy And Fun @ 15.00 (GP)

ROYAL ASCOT 15:45 ST JAMES PALACE STAKES (GROUP 1) 1m
Foxtrot Romeo @ 15.00 (GP)

ROYAL ASCOT 16:25 COVENTRY STAKES (GROUP 2) 6f
Funk Soul Brother @ 17.00 (GP)

ROYAL ASCOT 17:00 ASCOT STAKES HANDICAP 2m 4f
Cosimo De Medici @ 10.00 (GP)

ROYAL ASCOT 17:35 WINDSOR CASTLE STAKES 5f
Dylanbaru @ 11.00 (GP)

Colonel Sanders

Bookies are really running scared of the each way horses versus Frankel. 11/2 Excelebration. He's 14.5 on Betfair

Colonel Sanders

1.36 place only on Betfair. Punting him ew at 11/2 unlocks 11/8 the place but leaves you with a large -EV price on the win part

Colonel Sanders

Using betfair lay prices as the "true" price for Excelebration to win & place backing him each way at 11/2 looks +EV in a decent way

What you're giving up EV-wise on the win part you're more than gaining on the place part

MoscowFlyer

2.30 - Frankel
3.05 - Ortensia
3.45 - Gabrial
4.25 - Dawn Approach
5.00 - Al Khawaneej
5.35 - Pay Freeze

longshotvalue

3:45

I’m going to take 2 French trained runners in this as it looks to me as if they will both be suited by the conditions and look overpriced on form. Hermival probably has the single best bit of form here in his very good 3rd in the 2000. He was a bit disappointing in the Irish version, but I’m not sure the race was run to suit and the ground there probably wasn’t to his liking. This greater test will surly suit him much better and I can see him finishing of his race better than most in these conditions. The same can be said of his stable companion Dragon Pulse who has top class 2yo form along with beating Dabirsim on his debut in France this year. Although he was poor enough in the French 2000 he hadn’t settled at all and if he can here he will be there at the finish as again he look sure to be suited by this test.


2 Points win Hermival 13 Betfair
2 Points win Dragon Pulse 14.5 Betfair


3:05


Secret Assethasn’t really done much this year but he could be suited by the conditions today. His 2nd in the Abbey towards the end of last year would give him a small shot here, and there is inevitably one big priced outsider in the places in these races and he looks the most likely. 50/1 with 4 places on Bet365 looks with a min bet.


½ Point ew 50/1 Bet365 4 places


5:00
Elyaadi is the most proven horse around here in this field. When I look at the rest of the field nothing stands out and given that she is down to a rating 4lbs lower than before, for no apparent reason really, she has to have a superb chance here as this is bound to be her target for the year. 8/1 looks value.


1 Point win 8/1 Bet365

2:30


As much as i love watching a superstar, i can’t let any Horse like Excelebration who is clearly second best in what looks a 2 horse race go of at 14.5 on Betfair without having a small bet. This was easily Frankels worst race last year, and if there is anything amiss at all Excelebration looks very solid to take advantage. He looks more of a 8/1 shot to me.


1 Point win 14.5 Betfair

Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Using betfair lay prices as the "true" price for Excelebration to win & place backing him each way at 11/2 looks +EV in a decent way

What you're giving up EV-wise on the win part you're more than gaining on the place part

He'll surely be a bit bigger on course. Off course firm will be left having to pay 1/4 the odds ew. I've a bloody meeting 2-3 so can't bet on the show prices

Shane732

1/9!!!

tryfix

Not too wild about how Frankel's looking in the paddock.

MoscowFlyer

If you have 90k lying around, get it on! Easiest 10k you will ever make!!!

Shane732

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

He'll surely be a bit bigger on course. Off course firm will be left having to pay 1/4 the odds ew. I've a bloody meeting 2-3 so can't bet on the show prices

5/1 across the boards with 1/4 the odds.

It's a bet to nothing.

Johner

1/10 now.

Shane732

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

If you have 90k lying around, get it on! Easiest 10k you will ever make!!!

Personally I think Excelebration would be a better bet for the 90k!

Shane732

Johner wrote: »

1/10 now.

The big boys must be taking plenty.

Melion

Im putting my neck out, Frankel wont win this!

Nulty

This must be the shortest price in modern times for a group 1 in England

Nulty

Melion wrote: »

Im putting my neck out, Frankel wont win this!

Sharpening the axe...

Melion

Nulty wrote: »

This must be the shortest price in modern times for a group 1 in England

Id be interested to see if anything was ever this short for a G1 in England

Nulty

Melion wrote: »

Id be interested to see if anything was ever this short for a G1 in England

The pattern system is only about 40 years old anyway

MoscowFlyer

HE JUST GETS BETTER AND BETTER AND BETTER!

SCARY!

Nulty

JESUS!

Melion

Wow

Shane732

He's just amazing.

Nulty

Best horse ever..... He will be clear on timeform ratings

Goldcupfav

Lol What a machine !!!

MoscowFlyer

lol @ people who continue to doubt this beast.

Johner

WOW

tryfix

No doubt about it, that was his best ever performance. Joseph rode a great race on Excelebration, he had him placed beautifully but you can't beat the freak.