IRB World Rankings

CatFromHue

Just looking at the Pacific Nations Cup results and Samoa won again this morning. They only have to play Japan now who've lost both their games so far.

All the games are in Japan but I presume whoever is the designated home team is the home team in the eyes of the rankings calculators e.g. Fiji were the designated home team this morning against Samoa but the game was in Tokyo.

From using an online rankings calculator I get that Samoa are now on 77.198 points. We're currently on 79.85.

Scotland beating Australia bumps them up to 75.86 points.

Before the November Internationals Samoa still have to play:

Japan - if they win they'll be on 77.826 points assuming it's by not more than 15.
Scotland - assuming Scotland beat Fiji that'll put them on 76.478. If Samoa win here they'll be on 78.391 points, if Scotland win they'll be on 77.913.

Samoa in the November internationals play:
Wales
France

We will play
South Africa
Argentina

Scotland play
New Zealand
South Africa
Tonga

There will be a lot of pressure on us to win both our games as even Samoa winning one of theirs could put them above us depending on how we go.

It's hard to know how the Rugby Championship will go for Argentina but I'd expect them to win one game, more than likely the one against OZ in Arg. Argentina though beat Italy yesterday and will be playing two games against a weakened France so have the chance to increase their ratings before the Rugby Championship. Realistically after the Rugby Championship I'd expect them to be around where 80.5 mark or so (they won't lose much points from losing their away games as SA, NZ, and OZ all have much higher points than them).

In Nov Argentina will play
Wales
France
Ireland

If France lose both games against Argentina they'll be on 80.37

In Nov France will play
Australia
Argentina
Samoa

Assuming England and Wales lose all their test games in June come October the rankings could be

4) Wales 82.26
5) Eng 82.088
6) Arg 80.5
7) Fra 80.37
8) Ire 79.85
9) Samoa 78.39

It'll be an interesting November anyway!

CatFromHue

The rankings after last week are:

1.... NEW ZEALAND 91.43
2.... AUSTRALIA 86.42
3.... SOUTH AFRICA 84.97
4.... ENGLAND 82.99
5.... WALES 82.89
6.... FRANCE 81.91
7.... ARGENTINA 80.36
8.... IRELAND 79.85
9.... SAMOA 77.23
10.. TONGA 76.19
11.. SCOTLAND 75.86

This weekend we have
Can v Ita
Fiji v Scot
NZ v Ire
OZ v Wal
SA v Eng
Arg v Fra
Sam v Jap (this game is in Japan, like all the PNC games, but Sam are the designated home team).

irishbucsfan

Unfair on Samoa to have to play Japan in Japan and still get rated as the home team!

WeeBushy

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Unfair on Samoa to have to play Japan in Japan and still get rated as the home team!

Good for us though!

irishbucsfan

WeeBushy wrote: »

Good for us though!

So embarrasing that we see Samoa as a threat.

No offense to Samoans!

Legion2008

For those that want to play with the various permutations the following online calaculator can be used to see what the effects of games have on the rankings

http://www.aaatos.net/rankings.py

liammur

irishbucsfan wrote: »

So embarrasing that we see Samoa as a threat.

No offense to Samoans!

Absolute nonsense. Samoa are quite a good team.

Fishooks12

liammur wrote: »

Absolute nonsense. Samoa are quite a good team.

If we were to play them we'd beat them 9 out of 10 times. Even playing Kidney ball

liammur

Fishooks12 wrote: »

If we were to play them we'd beat them 9 out of 10 times. Even playing Kidney ball

On what basis?

I saw them seriously challenge both Wales and SA in the world cup.

Fishooks12

liammur wrote: »

On what basis?

I saw them seriously challenge both Wales and SA in the world cup.

On the basis that they've only beaten us once and that was in the early 90's to our B team

The had a decent WC but played above themselves and still didn't beat SA or Wales who clearly underestimated them

Tox56

I think we should be aiming a little higher than a country with a population the size of Cork.

They may be good at it, but they are currently playing Japan whilst we are playing the world champions, we should be comfortably on a different level.

liammur

Fishooks12 wrote: »

On the basis that they've only beaten us once and that was in the early 90's to our B team

The had a decent WC but played above themselves and still didn't beat SA or Wales who clearly underestimated them

We don't play them too often so it's impossible judge, but I'd have it down as a close game.

liammur

Tox56 wrote: »

I think we should be aiming a little higher than a country with a population the size of Cork.

They may be good at it, but they are currently playing Japan whilst we are playing the world champions, we should be comfortably on a different level.

We have a very small playing population too, it's almost for us to be competitive in rugby/soccer when you have most counties focusing on the GAA.

Fishooks12

liammur wrote: »

We don't play them too often so it's impossible judge, but I'd have it down as a close game.

It's not really impossible to judge at all. We have a far superior squad depth and far superior players

Italy and Samoa would be much of a muchness and we haven't lost to them since the 90's

liammur

Fishooks12 wrote: »

It's not really impossible to judge at all. We have a far superior squad depth and far superior players

Italy and Samoa would be much of a muchness and we haven't lost to them since the 90's

Samoa would wipe the floor with Italy imo, and seriously challenge if not beat us.

Fishooks12

liammur wrote: »

Samoa would wipe the floor with Italy imo, and seriously challenge if not beat us.

Where do you think they'd have an advantage over us?

liammur

Fishooks12 wrote: »

Where do you think they'd have an advantage over us?

I'm not sure tbh, I was just very impressed with them in the W Cup, and think they were very under rated. I haven't seen a lot of them tho.

DEFTLEFTHAND

All the Pacific island nations struggle to keep players unfortunately.

CatFromHue

Samoan rugby isn't very well run so it's hard to know where they stand. For example not selected for the PNC were the former Captain Schwalger and also Eliota Fuimaono-Sapolu, Seilala Mapusua, George Stowers and Alesana Tuilagi. The oldest of these guys is 32 and as far as I know Schwalger definitely wants to play for them but was not selected. He had a go at the lack of professionalism by the Samoan officials after the RWC and it is reported that Sapolu, Stowers, and Tuilagi backed him up.

Then some if their European players are slow to show up for the PNC. The Ospreys scrum half Fotuali’i is included in the PNC squad but was playing for the AP BaaBaas against Saracens in a charity match in Hong Kong last Saturday.

If they got their act together they could be alot better than they are that's for sure.

In Nov 2010 they showed what they could possible do when they toured up here. They lost to Ireland by 10, Eng by 13, and Scotland by 3.

liammur

CatFromHue wrote: »

Samoan rugby isn't very well run so it's hard to know where they stand. For example not selected for the PNC were the former Captain Schwalger and also Eliota Fuimaono-Sapolu, Seilala Mapusua, George Stowers and Alesana Tuilagi. The oldest of these guys is 32 and as far as I know Schwalger definitely wants to play for them but was not selected. He had a go at the lack of professionalism by the Samoan officials after the RWC and it is reported that Sapolu, Stowers, and Tuilagi backed him up.

Then some if their European players are slow to show up for the PNC. The Ospreys scrum half Fotuali’i is included in the PNC squad but was playing for the AP BaaBaas against Saracens in a charity match in Hong Kong last Saturday.

If they got their act together they could be alot better than they are that's for sure.

In Nov 2010 they showed what they could possible do when they toured up here. They lost to Ireland by 10, Eng by 13, and Scotland by 3.

You seem to know a bit about them, what did you make of them in the last W Cup ?

irishbucsfan

liammur wrote: »

Fishooks12 wrote: »

Where do you think they'd have an advantage over us?

I'm not sure tbh, I was just very impressed with them in the W Cup, and think they were very under rated. I haven't seen a lot of them tho.

A world cup is not a good place to judge a team like Samoa for a few reasons. Our second team beat Samoa quite easilly in 2010. If you put Ireland, single-mindedly, up against a team like Samoa in a full test with a week to prepare and study their opposition there would only be one result. Didn't they play Connacht?

Samoa are a very typical islander team: Very strong physically but not the most technically skilled, nor the most controlled.

They had excellent centers though, Sapolu and Pisi. Apart from them, Kahn and Tuilagi they weren't particularly impressive.

liammur

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Samoa are a very typical islander team: Very strong physically but not the most technically skilled, nor the most controlled.

They had excellent centers though, Sapolu and Pisi. Apart from them, Kahn and Tuilagi they weren't particularly impressive.

I would def agree with that. But surely the W Cup is where you would judge teams, not friendlies?

irishbucsfan

liammur wrote: »

I would def agree with that. But surely the W Cup is where you would judge teams, not friendlies?

No, because the intensity of round robin games varies wildly and teams all have different motives. Especially teams like Samoa who would target a team like Wales from a long way out.

liammur

irishbucsfan wrote: »

No, because the intensity of round robin games varies wildly and teams all have different motives. Especially teams like Samoa who would target a team like Wales from a long way out.

Any team that can target and challenge Wales and SA in the space of a few days is a team to be reckoned with imo.

Fishooks12

liammur wrote: »

Any team that can target and challenge Wales and SA in the space of a few days is a team to be reckoned with imo.

Wales were only finding their feet at that stage and that SA side was very poor. So poor in fact that I reckon we probably would have had a better chance of beating them in the quarters than Wales who finally clicked against us

Even with all that Samoa couldn't get withing a score of beating either side

Tox56

Samoa are extremely good relative to their size, but if we were to play them regularly we would have a similar attitude towards them that we have against Italy, expecting to win.

irishbucsfan

liammur wrote: »

Any team that can target and challenge Wales and SA in the space of a few days is a team to be reckoned with imo.

They're just not on the level of a 6N team.

Tonga wouldn't beat France in a normal test. The World Cup throws up many interesting results.

CIARAN_BOYLE

liammur wrote: »

I would def agree with that. But surely the W Cup is where you would judge teams, not friendlies?

The WC is the only time the Samoans are serious as an international side. For tours, pncs, and tests there are always a few players who don't link up with them or are late to training ect

JustinDee

How well Samoa does, depends on how many Kiwis are available to play for them hence their RWC performances.

Big Nelly

DO Ireland get any points for been within 7 points of AB's?

CatFromHue

Big Nelly wrote: »

DO Ireland get any points for been within 7 points of AB's?

No points awarded for losing a game. We're in the bizarre situation though that because they're so far ahead of us we don't lose any points for losing. So if we lose all three games we'll still be on 79.85 points.

CatFromHue

Weekend results were:

NZ 22 -19 Ire
Oz 25 - 23 Wal
SA 36 - 27 Eng
Fiji 25 - 37 Scot
Arg 23 - 20 Fra
Jap 26 -27 Sam
Can 16 -25 Ita

So I think the table will be:

4) Wal 82.54
5) Eng 82.49
6) Arg 81.21
7) Fra 81.06
8) Ire 79.85
9) Sam 77.23
10) Scot 76.56

Next week Samoa host Scotland and Argentina play France again.

Samoa have to win if they want to have any chance of getting into the top 8 at the end of the year. Samoa will be 2 points behind us on 77.86 if they win, they'd still need to win a game in November and for us to lose to realistically have a chance.

snow mad

so if france loose again and we were to get a draw we would overtake them?

ormond lad

snow mad wrote: »

so if france lose again and we were to get a draw we would overtake them?

we would but we would only be in 7th as argentina would still be ahead of us

CatFromHue

The 12 already qualified teams were the top 3 from each of the groups in RWC2011 which are: NZ, SA, Oz, Arg, Ire, Eng, Fra, Wal, Scot, Italy, Samoa, and Tonga (these are also the top 12 teams in the rankings at the moment).

They will be put into bands for selection into the pool stages of RWC2015. The bands are:

Band 1 - The four highest ranked directly qualified teams
Band 2 - The next four highest ranked directly qualified teams
Band 3 - The final four directly qualified teams
Band 4 - Oceania 1, Europe 1, Asia 1, Americas 1
Band 5 - Africa 1, Europe 2, Americas 2, Repechage winner

So being team 5 is no different than being team 8 when it comes to the rankings and seeding for RWC2015.

RoundBox11

liammur wrote: »

Samoa would wipe the floor with Italy imo, and seriously challenge if not beat us.

No offense, but thats a load of rubbish. If we were to play them this weekend, even without Ferris, Heaslip, POC, Bowe, Fitzgerald and D'Arcy, i'd expect us to beat them by at least 15 points if not more.

Our player base, coaching quality (even with Kidney), playing style (also even with Kidney) and overall talent from 1-15 far exceeds them.
I know I sound arrogant saying that but the fact of the matter is its true. I' don't think Samoa will ever be able to seriously challenge 1st tier teams, purely because their population is so small. They have what, 180,000 people? When you take into account the people living in NZ who are qualified that bumps it up but most of them get pulled into the NZ set up if they are top class.

Klunk_NZ

Crazy that NZ wont get anything in terms of ranking points from a likely 3-0. I guess that means the Rugby Championship becomes vital. Hope Aus/South Africa dont drop any games to keep their ranks nice and high for us to gain off.

jacothelad

Klunk_NZ wrote: »

Crazy that NZ wont get anything in terms of ranking points from a likely 3-0. I guess that means the Rugby Championship becomes vital. Hope Aus/South Africa dont drop any games to keep their ranks nice and high for us to gain off.

It's not really crazy. I wouldn't think Ireland should get ranking points for beating a team ranked 7 places below them. It doesn't make any sense. What New Zealand rugby gets out of it are three tough-ish games before the 4 Nations Championship and what's more important, MONEY. We all know how much is needed to keep it afloat and to keep the best players and the next tier down at home if possible.

Klunk_NZ

jacothelad wrote: »

It's not really crazy. I wouldn't think Ireland should get ranking points for beating a team ranked 7 places below them. It doesn't make any sense. What New Zealand rugby gets out of it are three tough-ish games before the 4 Nations Championship and what's more important, MONEY. We all know how much is needed to keep it afloat and to keep the best players and the next tier down at home if possible.

Ireland are alot, ALOT tougher than their ranking suggests.

irishbucsfan

Klunk_NZ wrote: »

jacothelad wrote: »

It's not really crazy. I wouldn't think Ireland should get ranking points for beating a team ranked 7 places below them. It doesn't make any sense. What New Zealand rugby gets out of it are three tough-ish games before the 4 Nations Championship and what's more important, MONEY. We all know how much is needed to keep it afloat and to keep the best players and the next tier down at home if possible.

Ireland are alot, ALOT tougher than their ranking suggests.

While I'd like to think so, the fact the ranking is based on results argues against that!

Tox56

Klunk_NZ wrote: »

Ireland are alot, ALOT tougher than their ranking suggests.

The ranking system doesn't know that. After that WC Final you wouldn't have thought France are the 6th best team in the World, but that's the nature of these things.

Klunk_NZ

Owell a good sign for rugby when teams like Tonga can beat France and the number 1 team can struggle immensely against the number 8 team. If you're number one it should be hard to stretch a lead I guess.

CatFromHue

Todays results for the teams ranked below us in the rankings were:

Samoa 16 - 17 Scotland
Fiji 29 - 17 Tonga (on the IRB website it has Tonga as the home team but the game was actually played in Fiji!)

So that puts the rankings as

8) Ire 79.85
9) Scot 77.97
10) Sam 76.23
11) Italy 75.26 (Italy play the US tonight).
12) Tonga 74.79

Scotland beating Samoa pretty much knocks them out of the running for a top 8 spot come the and of the year.

In Nov Scotland play NZ, SA, and Tonga and we play SA and Arg.

Come Nov I think NZ will be around 91, SA around 85, and Arg around 80.

Assuming Argentina lose to Wales and France it means if we lose to SA but beat Arg we'll be on 79.79.

If the above happens Argentina will be on 78.58

If Scotland beat SA and Tonga but lose to NZ they'll be on 79.62.

We're pretty much safe as long as we beat Argentina as they'll drop out of the top 8 and be replaced by Scotland.

padser

CatFromHue wrote: »

Todays results for the teams ranked below us in the rankings were:

Samoa 16 - 17 Scotland
Fiji 29 - 17 Tonga (on the IRB website it has Tonga as the home team but the game was actually played in Fiji!)

So that puts the rankings as

8) Ire 79.85
9) Scot 77.97
10) Sam 76.23
11) Italy 75.26 (Italy play the US tonight).
12) Tonga 74.79

Scotland beating Samoa pretty much knocks them out of the running for a top 8 spot come the and of the year.

In Nov Scotland play NZ, SA, and Tonga and we play SA and Arg.

Come Nov I think NZ will be around 91, SA around 85, and Arg around 80.

Assuming Argentina lose to Wales and France it means if we lose to SA but beat Arg we'll be on 79.79.

If the above happens Argentina will be on 78.58

If Scotland beat SA and Tonga but lose to NZ they'll be on 79.62.

We're pretty much safe as long as we beat Argentina as they'll drop out of the top 8 and be replaced by Scotland.

So pretty much exactly same as 2008 where we needed to beat Argintina in Nov to get a Tier 2 seeding for 2011 wc.

For all my criticism of Kdney we are actually in exactly the same position as when he took over......still want him out though! :-)

CIARAN_BOYLE

padser wrote: »

So pretty much exactly same as 2008 where we needed to beat Argintina in Nov to get a Tier 2 seeding for 2011 wc.

For all my criticism of Kdney we are actually in exactly the same position as when he took over......still want him out though! :-)

Except that with the quality of players available we should be better.

I'm not going to say we should be top 3 in the world or anything crazy but I think we should really be top 6 in the world

CatFromHue

padser wrote: »

So pretty much exactly same as 2008 where we needed to beat Argintina in Nov to get a Tier 2 seeding for 2011 wc.

For all my criticism of Kdney we are actually in exactly the same position as when he took over......still want him out though! :-)

I think so yeah. It's all guesstimating at the moment but when you look back at the IRB rankings over the year there usually isn't a huge change in ranking from before the Tri Nations to after it which is why I guessed NZ will be on about 91, and SA about 85. The only new thing is Argentina but I think they'll win one game at home which should give them some valuable points.

Tox56

Surely the fact we are in the same position we started in is a pretty compelling argument that Kidney should go

ray jay

padser wrote: »

For all my criticism of Kdney we are actually in exactly the same position as when he took over......still want him out though! :-)

Or to look at it another way, this is the position we were in when O'Sullivan got the boot.

The realistic way to look at it is we are a distant 8th in a 9(10 or 11 at a stretch) horse field.

Klunk_NZ

1) NZ 91.43
2) Australia 87.05
3) RSA 84.87
4) England 83.09
5) France 83.03
6) Wales 82.26
7) Ireland 79.85
8) Argentina 79.25
9) Scotland 77.97
10) Samoa 76.23
11) Italy 76.03
12) Tonga 74.79
13) Canada 72.31
14) Fiji 70.61
15) Georgia 68.14

Are my sources correct here?

thomond2006

Wow Ireland vs Argentina in the autumn is a huge game now, just like in 2008.