Does rail transport have a future in Ireland?

Plowman

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yer man!

Plowman wrote: »

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There is still the fact the rail can be electrified whereas buses can't really (bus hybrids aren't great). Personally I find rail to be more comfortable compared to a bus, even in Ireland and would gladly take the train if the price wasn't that much different to the bus which sometimes it isn't. Rail in Ireland has a long way to go to meet the continental standard but I still prefer it to our current bus network.

corktina

Rail has a great future as shown in the UK and on the Continent etc, but no, not a very rosy picture in Ireland, thast because of the years of under-investment and lazy management which sees us around 40 or more behind the UK from a position of actaully modernising a decade before them.

What do i think should be done? Well keep all the suburban stuff is a given as it is useful even if it doesnt make a profit, and invest in Cork,Limerick,Galway and Belfast to Dublin by upgrading to 125mph minimum. Other lines can be closed or kept on a secondary level so long as major investment isnt needed.

cgcsb

the problem is that over the last 10 years, we've seen €8bn spent on motorways and less than €2bn spent on rail including buying a completely brand new rail fleet. So the actual expenditure on track infrastructure has been pitiful. Old track (mostly single track) and old bridges = slow trains

This has led to a decline in popularity of the railway. Still, the Dublin-Cork line does well because it is faster than bus journeys and faster than many car journeys, depending which train you get. If we bought new locamotives (capable of 210km/hr) and upgraded the old track on the cork,galway and belfast lines, then we could have 200km/hr running.

Making rail a good bit faster than road. Our railway lines would then be equally competitive as they are in the UK, Sweeden and Denmark.

RE: the western railway corridor, that was a practical joke played on the tax payer by some badly behaved FF politicians.

corktina

I beleive Irish Rail operate in MPH.

My car journey to, lets say. Dublin would be far quicker than the train and I'm talking about the Cork line here. I don't have a bus alternative.

flazio

Does Rail travel HAVE to be so Dublin centric? There are other cities in Ireland after all.

Plowman

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Del2005

flazio wrote: »

Does Rail travel HAVE to be so Dublin centric? There are other cities in Ireland after all.

Yes, since most of the rest of the country has been ruined by ribbon development we can't run trains anywhere else. You need large population centres for rail to be viable and we don't have many.

Most of the population now lives a car journey to a train station so unless they are commuting it doesn't make sense to drive to a station to go somewhere, then when they arrive at the the destination they have no transport and need to wait around for buses or pay out for taxis.

If we'd had proper planning we could have built up towns to make them viable for rail but we didn't so trains are only going one way on this Island, as we can't afford to make them faster than cars for private transport and IIRC the country is too small to make rail freight viable.

corktina

flazio wrote: »

Does Rail travel HAVE to be so Dublin centric? There are other cities in Ireland after all.

yep, thats where the tracks go to...


mind you , you might find the odd city at the other end of them....

corktina

Del2005 wrote: »

If we'd had proper planning we could have built up towns to make them viable for rail but we didn't so trains are only going one way on this Island, as we can't afford to make them faster than cars for private transport and IIRC the country is too small to make rail freight viable.

I know what you mean but I have this image of them unloading new trains in Cork etc and a big pile of them in Heuston

Winters

Allowing the large scale growth of towns with no rail links was the death of proper transport and planning in Ireland.

Does anyone know Clongriffin Station? Look out the window, it’s an ideal example where planning is backwards. 75% of the immediate lands in the catchment of the station have not been developed. Then go up the road to Balgriffin, Belmayne and the new homes, apartments and developments in the Malahide Road area. Appalling example of planning dictated by developers and not the LA which has just added to our woes.

If IE had any cop on they would have objected to any development outside a 2km radius of their stations. However the mistakes should never have happened and DCC and Fingal are the worst culprits.

pigtown

flazio wrote: »

Does Rail travel HAVE to be so Dublin centric? There are other cities in Ireland after all.

Well Limerick city has already got rail lines running north, south, east and west. All it requires is a bit of investment to create a comprehensive suburban rail network.

chooochooo

Yes. It does.

Poxyshamrock

pigtown wrote: »

Well Limerick city has already got rail lines running north, south, east and west. All it requires is a bit of investment to create a comprehensive suburban rail network.

A station at the parkway would work well with the large catchment area and UL.

Irish and Proud

I've used the train to Cork a few times and there are pros and cons compared with car travel IMO:

Pros:

1) Fast and relaxing (scenic) journey - cuts out the stress of driving and wallops the bus in terms of speed;

2) Good rail link between Heuston and Connolly (Red Line);

3) Food and toilets available without the need to stop off - also available at main stations;

4) You don't have to worry about parking upon arrival.

Cons:

1) Not as fast or direct as driving by car;

2) Baggage can be a source of major discomfort upon interchanging or walking;

3) Less opportunity to visit places of interest along the way or around destination;

4) Have to walk to reach Cork City Centre.

Even:

1) Price - €70 would cover a return trip for both modes IMO;

2) Constant speed restrictions on Cork Line, but Cork Road is prone to accidents, works and diversions;

3) Both journeys are scenic but - have to concentrate on driving / may not get a window seat on train;

4) Motoring is faster, but getting into town is still via congested substandard roads - Rail terminates at one point regardless of where people need to go.

If anyone has anything to add...

bk

You left off the two biggest cons of the Cork to Dublin train:

1) Slow, a train should never be slower then by car for the same journey.

2) Expensive, €80 return!

Aircoach is €22 return and is faster (to O'Connell St) .

And a few other things:

3) Charges for booking online, but no charge for booking at station, crazy, should be the other way around.

4) Inflexible booking system online, e.g. can't change booking to different time, etc.

5) Charge for bringing bike on intercity train is €16 return!! Nuts. It is almost as expensive as a return ticket for a person on the new Aircoach direct bus service between Cork and Dublin (€22 return) and you can bring your bike for free on Aircoach.

Pros:

1) Excellent website, probably the best transport website in Ireland. They just need to sort the booking system now (I believe this is coming).

bk

Rail certainly does have a future.

However rail is expensive to do and only works in certain scenarios:

1) Commuter/mass transit rail into and around large cities. e.g. London Underground, Metro, DART, LUAS, etc.

This is the most important and effective use of rail. Many large cities would be totally crippled without rail. For instance there is no way at all that you could move 12 million people into and around London without the underground.

2) High speed intercity rail between large cities (e.g. 1 million or more people at both ends). Very successful between large cities across continental Europe, Asia, etc.

3) Rail freight where you have very heavy loads (e.g. mining ore, etc.) that needs to travel very long distances (e.g. across the US).

However unfortunately many of these situations don't exist in Ireland and therefore I believe rails future is limited in Ireland:

1) Really only Dublin has a population size and density to justify mass transit rail like the DART, Luas and future projects like MN and DU.

Cork maybe just about big enough for some commuter rail.

2) Ireland is not really well suited to intercity rail. We have only one 1m+ city. Intercity trains are slow, slower then car and even bus coach!! While it might get a little faster, there is unlikely to ever (well not in the next 30 years) be a justification for high speed intercity rail. We unfortunately just don't have the population density to justify it.

The reality intercity rail will likely struggle along, trying to compete with much cheaper bus travel. The reality is there will be a lot of cost cutting in the future of Irish Rail.

3) Ireland is probably the least suited country in the world for rail freight. We are an island, with the majority of the population in the center of the country. Short distances, with a fantastic road network to every city and also every city is also has a large port.

Rail freight makes zero sense and has zero future in Ireland.

Irish and Proud

bk wrote: »

<snip>
3) Ireland is probably the least suited country in the world for rail freight. We are an island, with the majority of the population in the center of the country. Short distances, with a fantastic road network to every city and also every city is also has a large port.

Rail freight makes zero sense and has zero future in Ireland.

I'm not too sure about that...

A new freight service (by a private third party) is AFAIK operating from Ballina Mayo to Dublin Docks - it's was said to be successful because of the high cost of fuel for road hauliers. Also, I guess that where motorways (such as along the N24) are omitted, freight rail might be quite viable as an interim solution. Of course, there's already a railway from Limerick to Rosslare Europort (I'm sure the recently decommissioned section towards Rosslare) is still fit for operation or that it could be rendered so at relatively low cost.

I'm am a road enthusiast, but I also like railways!

Regards!

flazio

bk wrote: »

Rail certainly does have a future.

However rail is expensive to do and only works in certain scenarios:

1) Commuter/mass transit rail into and around large cities. e.g. London Underground, Metro, DART, LUAS, etc.

This is the most important and effective use of rail. Many large cities would be totally crippled without rail. For instance there is no way at all that you could move 12 million people into and around London without the underground.

2) High speed intercity rail between large cities (e.g. 1 million or more people at both ends). Very successful between large cities across continental Europe, Asia, etc.

3) Rail freight where you have very heavy loads (e.g. mining ore, etc.) that needs to travel very long distances (e.g. across the US).

However unfortunately many of these situations don't exist in Ireland and therefore I believe rails future is limited in Ireland:

1) Really only Dublin has a population size and density to justify mass transit rail like the DART, Luas and future projects like MN and DU.

Cork maybe just about big enough for some commuter rail.

2) Ireland is not really well suited to intercity rail. We have only one 1m+ city. Intercity trains are slow, slower then car and even bus coach!! While it might get a little faster, there is unlikely to ever (well not in the next 30 years) be a justification for high speed intercity rail. We unfortunately just don't have the population density to justify it.

The reality intercity rail will likely struggle along, trying to compete with much cheaper bus travel. The reality is there will be a lot of cost cutting in the future of Irish Rail.

3) Ireland is probably the least suited country in the world for rail freight. We are an island, with the majority of the population in the center of the country. Short distances, with a fantastic road network to every city and also every city is also has a large port.

Rail freight makes zero sense and has zero future in Ireland.

In relation to freight. I'd be reluctant to sell off the rolling stock just in case.
The last two big freezes were tough and expensive to keep the roads open throughout and yet rail travel was a lot less disrupted, I'd certainly keep the option open, should the roads take another turn for the worse.

bk

Irish and Proud wrote: »

I'm not too sure about that...

A new freight service (by a private third party) is AFAIK operating from Ballina Mayo to Dublin Docks - it's was said to be successful because of the high cost of fuel for road hauliers.

Yes it exists, but it literally makes up less then 1% of all freight moved in Ireland.

The reality it only exists due to subsidies and watching a recent news piece about it it is very clear that the private operators are desperately looking for more subsidies from the government for it.

They were wheezing on about it being more environmentally friendly and how unfair it was that the motorways get so much subsidies.

The reality is it is just a play to squeeze as much subsidies as possible out of the government for their "green" alternative.

In reality it isn't competitive with road freight.

I'd be shocked if it ever reached even 2% of all freight. Forget about it, rail freight in Ireland is pure fantasy.

flazio wrote: »

In relation to freight. I'd be reluctant to sell off the rolling stock just in case.
The last two big freezes were tough and expensive to keep the roads open throughout and yet rail travel was a lot less disrupted, I'd certainly keep the option open, should the roads take another turn for the worse.

The minister for transport has made it very clear that maintaining the new motorway network is priority number one. The majority of his budget is going to motorway maintenance, at the expense of rail and other new projects. So we aren't going to see a repeat of this situation.

corktina

Irish and Proud wrote: »

I'm not too sure about that...

A new freight service (by a private third party) is AFAIK operating from Ballina Mayo to Dublin Docks - it's was said to be successful because of the high cost of fuel for road hauliers. Also, I guess that where motorways (such as along the N24) are omitted, freight rail might be quite viable as an interim solution. Of course, there's already a railway from Limerick to Rosslare Europort (I'm sure the recently decommissioned section towards Rosslare) is still fit for operation or that it could be rendered so at relatively low cost.

I'm am a road enthusiast, but I also like railways!

Regards!

How would you fund re-opening the closed section east of Waterford? All the staff are gone and theres that bridge to maintain and operate.
There are no facilities at Rosslare for freight trains, who will fund their installation and the signalling upgrades necessary to operate them?
There are no facilities for freight ships to dock at Riosslare....it just goes on...

Judgement Day

bk wrote: »

You left off the two biggest cons of the Cork to Dublin train:

1) Slow, a train should never be slower then by car for the same journey. Why? Is there some God given law that states this?

2) Expensive, €80 return! As usual your bias shows through as you quote the maximum fare.

Aircoach is €22 return and is faster (to O'Connell St) .

And a few other things:

3) Charges for booking online, but no charge for booking at station, crazy, should be the other way around. Nothing to do with railways per se but more to do with the shambolic operator.

4) Inflexible booking system online, e.g. can't change booking to different time, etc. As for 3 above.

5) Charge for bringing bike on intercity train is €16 return!! Nuts. It is almost as expensive as a return ticket for a person on the new Aircoach direct bus service between Cork and Dublin (€22 return) and you can bring your bike for free on Aircoach. As for 3 and 4!

Pros:

1) Excellent website, probably the best transport website in Ireland. They just need to sort the booking system now (I believe this is coming).

And a website is a reason to travel inter-city? Incidentally, the site is better than it was but still poor in my opinion.

steamengine

Just because someone has discovered a bus that travels non-stop to Cork in 2 3/4 hours is a basic reason to rate the the entire Irish rail system as superfluous to requirements. The comparison doesn't even stack up as the train to Cork is a stopping service. If it were a non-stop service then it would be a non contest and one would have the added comfort of knowing that having a 'leak' en route wasn't a problem. I agree with JD, the bias is wearisome.

Del2005

Irish and Proud wrote: »

I'm not too sure about that...

A new freight service (by a private third party) is AFAIK operating from Ballina Mayo to Dublin Docks - it's was said to be successful because of the high cost of fuel for road hauliers. Also, I guess that where motorways (such as along the N24) are omitted, freight rail might be quite viable as an interim solution. Of course, there's already a railway from Limerick to Rosslare Europort (I'm sure the recently decommissioned section towards Rosslare) is still fit for operation or that it could be rendered so at relatively low cost.

I'm am a road enthusiast, but I also like railways!

Regards!

flazio wrote: »

In relation to freight. I'd be reluctant to sell off the rolling stock just in case.

The problem rail freight has in this country is we just aren't big enough to make it viable. We have a few companies running a limited service on direct routes.

To get freight to where we need it, our towns and villages, it will still need to get onto a truck from the station. The extra handling of loading from ship-truck-train-truck-customer will eat any "green" benefit and the costs will go up hugely. Rail freight works with large loads going long distances, we don't have either.

flazio wrote: »

The last two big freezes were tough and expensive to keep the roads open throughout and yet rail travel was a lot less disrupted, I'd certainly keep the option open, should the roads take another turn for the worse.

Rail is also affected by snow and ice and if the roads are closed the goods still won't get the to customer. It'll just sit in a rail yard rather than a haulage yard.

We'd still need the same amount of trucks, or maybe more unless we redesign our ports to allow direct loading from ship to train, to deliver the goods to the customer.

Irish and Proud

I like the idea of Ireland having railways as well as motorways, but maybe as some posters point out, the small size of the country just doesn't lend well to economies of scale in terms of freight and long distance travel via the rail network. I also had a nice idea of completing the M17, M18 and M20 and then utilizing the Limerick to Rosslare railway to link up Waterford and Rosslare to the West etc - admittedly, I didn't think it through though.

Another blow was the recent article on RTE News about cost cutting on the Rail Network - just what some poster(s) had suggested would happen. However, I do think commuter rail has a big future in Ireland. However, surely some long distance passenger services would be viable with a streamlined IE (would be a very tough job I know) and upgrades to allow speeds of up to 200kph (not high speed I know, but pretty fast though).

It would just be a pity to mothball our railways.

n900guy

1) Really only Dublin has a population size and density to justify mass transit rail like the DART, Luas and future projects like MN and DU.

Cork maybe just about big enough for some commuter rail.

You have to remember that at the moment 1.8 million people live within 100km of Cork city. It was suited very well to rail 100 years ago before the rail got shut down. Loads of small stations and it worked well.

2) Ireland is not really well suited to intercity rail. We have only one 1m+ city. Intercity trains are slow, slower then car and even bus coach!! While it might get a little faster, there is unlikely to ever (well not in the next 30 years) be a justification for high speed intercity rail. We unfortunately just don't have the population density to justify it.

It totally is, but Dublin-centric road and rail mishandling has caused a lot of problems. There is no reason for Intercity services at 160km/h to not be the norm between Dublin --> Galway / Cork and Cork --> Limerick --> Galway. Linking up the major cities in a loop works very well, which is how the Randstad in the Holland works. The major cities in Ireland are in a triangle and are around 200-250km each apart. It should take no more than 90mins to go from Cork to Dublin, Dublin to Galway or Galway to Cork with Limerick halfway.

Simply investing the required amount to connect the four cities in a loop would connect 80% of the population of the country.

3) Ireland is probably the least suited country in the world for rail freight. We are an island, with the majority of the population in the center of the country. Short distances, with a fantastic road network to every city and also every city is also has a large port.

The majority of the population are not in the centre of the country. 1,5 million people live east in Dublin and the Greater Dublin Area. 1,8 million people live in the south. the rest live in the west and BMW.

corktina

90 minutes from Cork to Dublin? you are having a proverbial Giraffe.we can't even manage 100 mph running for any meaningful length and you are proposing an average speed of over 100mph which doesnt take account of acceleration or braking times and condemns all the intermedaite stations to no service or at best an inferior one.

total pie in the sky yet again.

n900guy

corktina wrote: »

90 minutes from Cork to Dublin? you are having a proverbial Giraffe.we can't even manage 100 mph running for any meaningful length and you are proposing an average speed of over 100mph which doesnt take account of acceleration or braking times and condemns all the intermedaite stations to no service or at best an inferior one.

total pie in the sky yet again.

It is not essential to stop at every single station along the way. If you believe it is, you are well suited to a career in Train Management In Ireland As It Is Now.

corktina

n900guy wrote: »

It is not essential to stop at every single station along the way. If you believe it is, you are well suited to a career in Train Management In Ireland As It Is Now.

if you beleive you will be able travel by train in Ireland at any time in the future at an average of nearly 120 mph and stop at ANY stations along the way then you may as well start work converting a Delorean now! Its just not possible, technically and economically. Do the Math!

run_Forrest_run

Rail will have a future here if and only if the Government force the unions to release their vice-live grip on the entire system. Open up the rail lines to private companies and let IE face some competition. They are a bunch of incompetent fools who have been protected for far too long.

Plowman

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Mearings

1 zero out in total square milege.

Ted Mosby

Plowman wrote: »

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Sounds like a straight lift from this guy: often cited by tarmac enthusiasts as a transport expert and by anti-sprawl campaigners in the States as someone who does not share their POV

The attached article from American Prospect gives an anti sprawl point of view regarding campaigns in the States against investing in mass transit, echoes of which sound eerily like the guff put out in the public area during the campaigns against DART and Luas while they were being planned and constructed.

http://prospect.org/article/suburban-cowboys

One result of the recession is that there are no more suburban developments, least of all in places that were so far flung from the places where people actually worked that they had to spend at least twelve to fourteen hours a day away from in order to be able to commute to them. The catch-22 is that untrammelled development was exactly what bankrupted this country and that ordinary people had to travel further and further out to pay for houses that they could afford.

As to whether we can willy-nilly jettison the rail network and substitute it with buses, then you can argue about cost savings. That's fine, we save a few bob. However, what happens then is that you get a reduced customer base. Significant numbers switch to the private car. The widespread scrapping of the railway network in Northern Ireland in the 50s and 60s lead to exactly that, and more use of the roads leads to more demand for road improvements etc. The bus becomes the preserve of the young and the elderly. We end up paying more for fuel. So, the petro-chemical industry benefits, and the manufacturers of road materials benefit. Still, that could be a choice that the country chooses to make, but lets not go blindly into scrapping the railways without looking at the wider implications.

As an aside, I am reminded of Tod Andrews' self-congratulatory guffaw at the expense of west Cork campaigners who came to Kingsbridge to see him regarding the closure of their railway. He was delighted when they revealed that they came up by car to see him instead of by train, however the reality was the railway was timetabled such that you could not come up to Dublin and back by one day. A true case of the management of the railway planning to fail. Try not to confuse CIE's long term planning to fail with the benefits of a properly managed railway network. We don't have that.

bk

n900guy wrote: »

You have to remember that at the moment 1.8 million people live within 100km of Cork city. It was suited very well to rail 100 years ago before the rail got shut down. Loads of small stations and it worked well.

The difference is most people didn't have a car 100 years ago and had basically no other choice.

The problem with the 1.8 million is there are very dispersed over a large area with very low population density. If you live more then a few minutes walk from a station, then most people will drive. If you are going to drive to the station anyway, you might as well drive to your destination, as it will be cheaper and faster.

The fantasy that some people have of a massive rail network will never happen again, forget about it and try to be realistic. Focus on what can be achieved like improved commuter and mass rail transport.

It totally is, but Dublin-centric road and rail mishandling has caused a lot of problems. There is no reason for Intercity services at 160km/h to not be the norm between Dublin --> Galway / Cork and Cork --> Limerick --> Galway. Linking up the major cities in a loop works very well, which is how the Randstad in the Holland works. The major cities in Ireland are in a triangle and are around 200-250km each apart. It should take no more than 90mins to go from Cork to Dublin, Dublin to Galway or Galway to Cork with Limerick halfway.

Simply investing the required amount to connect the four cities in a loop would connect 80% of the population of the country.

And where are you "simply" going to get the hundreds of millions if not billions of Euros to build that?

And how could you justify spending such money, when bus coaches provide almost the same level of service for basically zero cost to the tax payer.

It just makes zero logical sense.

Pure fantasy.

cavedave

I do not think new rail lines or increased passanger number are likely for a few reasons.

1. People are not travelling as far anymore. Because of telecommuting and us spending our time sitting around arguing on forums it looks like total distance travelled per person is falling. This could also be because of car travel costs as well. But it does look like we will not travel as far per person in the future.

2. Commuting sucks. We are starting to learn quite how unpleasant commuting is 'A commuter who travels one hour, one way, would have to make 40% more than his current salary to be as fully satisfied with his life as a noncommuter'. As people figure this out they will want to travel less.

3. Driverless car and road train technology won't be here tomorrow. But it will be around within the lifetime of a piece of new rail infrastructure. These wont make trains useless but if you can sit in your car and read a book or sleep it removes one of the big advantages of tains. You can also end up with less traffic which again reduces the advantage rail has.

NITransport

cavedave wrote: »

I do not think new rail lines or increased passanger number are likely for a few reasons.

1. People are not travelling as far anymore. Because of telecommuting and us spending our time sitting around arguing on forums it looks like total distance travelled per person is falling. This could also be because of car travel costs as well. But it does look like we will not travel as far per person in the future.

Err... have you read that article? It doesn't say distance travelled is falling... it says "Vehicle Miles Travelled" is falling, and that governments are slow to response to the public's travel habits, i.e. not responding to a desire to move towards public transport.

The article sums up and confirms the fears, and wishes held by advocates of rail transport in Ireland, it doesn't invalidate them (as per your intention).

cavedave

It doesn't say distance travelled is falling... it says "Vehicle Miles Travelled" is falling

People are not going to travel as far walking or on a bike as they will in a vehicle.

Think of the exodus recession explanation.

15 years ago most things you wanted to do involved going somewhere. Whether it be video shop, music shop, book shop, even the cinema can now be downloaded to an extent. With the increasing digitisation of what we how we spend our time we just dont need to go as many places.

that governments are slow to response to the public's travel habits, i.e. not responding to a desire to move towards public transport.

cars will be most effected by young people not having the same incentives to travel as cars are the most expensive way they used to travel. But other methods of transport will also be effected.

less than half of potential drivers age 19 or younger had a license in 2008, down from nearly two-thirds in 1998. The fraction of 20-to-24-year-olds with a license has also dropped.

car driving is reducing. I do not agree with you (and to an extent the article) that this necessarily means trains would get more popular.

popebenny16

rail transport does indeed have a future in ireland, insofar as it isnt going to vanish anytime in the next 50 years or so, but the question is what sort of future.

You could say that IE have shifted the tea leaves and through gazing into said temporal beverage ingrediant have come up with the Railcar Solution.

The idea would be, through the usage of DMU's and EMU's (DART), to cut running costs and maintenance costs down to the bone. This is done by only having a driver, maybe, eventually, a hop on, hop off conductor/inspector, and a uniform fleet of vehicles to reduce maintance issues. By constant sweating of assets and using a combiation of 3 or 6 car forms they would be hoping to have a basic regular service level on all main routes. On the DART front the idea was to extend the service to the main commuter towns around the city.

Now, you have to get that this was the plan before the celtic puss corpsed out. The plans have been skewered somewhat (or in the case of DART all but abandoned) but that is the basic model. Lines such as Nenagh, Clonmel, Rosslare, WRC, are kept on as tempting low hanging fruit for cutting. Staff are redeployed to satisfy the unions untill the last moment and then laid off (as is happening now) in a gradual fashion. All expenses are eliminated, so you get more TVMs in stations, less staff, you lose catering on the trains, you get less staff.

Slow investment, cut to the measure of these austere times, is made. There may, or may not be, retention of Locomotive Hauled trains on the Cork and Belfast lines. We wont have long to find out in the case of Belfast, and whatever happens there will happen to Cork about ten years later. I cant see electrification of either line just for one train per hour each way to Cork (and it will also have to be made to Limerick to get max use of the line) and somewhat less of a service to Belfast. The expense is too much as can be envisaged in the medium term whilst keeping a hold on reality.

As a consequence Cork and Belfast will probably go Railcar too, proabably of a higher standard than the 22K on other routes to be some brand of flagship service. Given that the expected lifetime of the current 22k fleet is of 40 years that will dove-tail nicely into another big chance to change things in or around 2050. At that point it will be electric or proabaly nothing.

At the moment in time IE are doing this and that, here and there, to get the Cork line up to 200kph someday. Thats all very well, but with the existing 201's pulling mark4s and having to do the amount of stops they do now due to funding cuts its actually not going to change much.

Whilst car usage on long distances is being hit by petrol at the 1.60 per litre mark this is not going to automatically transfer into train usage. For a start, hybrid and electric technology and lower car taxes and other ideas will constantly evolve to allow motoring and the motor industry to exist well beyond peak oil and petrol at mad prices per litre. Whilst that is going on, IE will still be lumped with 22k's and 201s on their tracks, and maybe not be given the money to do much about it. This will make the choice between car/bus/train interesting and great innovation will be needed by IE to come to a solution.

Other societal changes, as pointed out in the above cartoon of the chap at his monitor, will also play a part. the development of the country during the celtic tiger decade and a half was ruined by a large degree of greed, exploitation, abuse of process and many other things which I do not need to bang on about. That may not happen again, and indeed we may never see growth like that again either. The probable development of the country in a steady manner as a service/agricultural economy will probably not impact upon the railways in one great way or another. Unless there is massive population decrease the timetables we see today will be the timetables we will see (with the excpetion of DART/surburban rail) in 20 years time for the most part.

The only major development apart from Railcars to/from Cork and Belfast, the cuting of the low lying fruit and the general absence of staff from what we are used to, may be a desire to actually to DART underground, if there is a clear economic and enviromental demand for it. That depends on the economy pickign up to such an extent that its absence will be seen as a hinderance rather than a cost to the state. Same goes for Metros and Luas extensions.

So, thats my crystal ball contribution anyway. I have gleefully ignored the 2030 vision thing of IE in the interests, as I said above, of keeping some grip on reality. That said, at least they realised that if you dont ask you wont get, so you may as well ask for as much as you can, no matter how unrealistic it is.

popebenny16

one further point, which is just an aside, is that i think eventually there will be no 29k's, (the other railcars are being phased out) just 22k railcars and the successor to the Mark4 and DeDeitrich loco hauled services (and again i imagine they will be the same class of railcars). As it stands everything will soon be 22k and 29k anyway, given cuts of lines, cuts to services, the vailability of 3 car sets, and the small possibility of IE just buying a few more 3 car 22k's it will make the fleet very uniform indeed by the time replacement of the 201 hauled serivces comes up for proper discussion.

pigtown

All seems very reasonable and well thought out. Just wondering what you think the possibility of suburban rail in the other cities is? (In particular Limerick, I seem to have an obsession with this at the moment but have yet to see anyone else who has given it much thought).

kieran4003

Just to add my own views on this interesting discussion.

The most important issues for the rail network into the future will be the development of the Intercity network and the role of heavy rail in a modern transport system for Dublin.

The Intercity network must and will get faster. The trains are there, the frequency is there, but enhancements must be made. Key to having a fast, reliable network will need certain developemts over the next 10-20 years. This would involve:

-Relaying & short alingment improvements in the Intercity network.
-Double tracking Portarlington - Athlone, Maynooth - Mullingar & Athenry - Galway.
- Four tracking the Northern line to at least Malahide, Gradual extension of four tracking to Kildare
- Loops in Sixmilebridge, Kildare - Waterford & Sligo lines.

The Dart will be very important to the future of Dublin. The most important issues here will be frequency and connectivity. What will be required is:
-Dart Underground - This is the most important rail project this country will ever build. Essential for an integrated transport network.
-Electricfication to Maynooth, Hazelhatch, Drogheda (Ideally using long distance, fast EMU's).
- Extra DART carriages of course.

There is no need for any new lines, It is much more important to develop the existing network, the backbone of the countries transport infrastructure. There should be no reopening of meandering freight lines through hamlets in the West for example. A line to Navan may be worth considering.

steamengine

It would be sensible IMO that any existing rail alignments, either not currently in use, or likely to be disused over the coming decades be strictly mothballed so that they can be revived if necessary. How the cookie will crumble over the next fifty years or so is uncertain, but in Europe generally there is currently a shift in progress, from road to rail freight, largely due to pressure concerning carbon emissions coupled with a reduction in the use of fossil fuels. Regarding freight it costs 60% more fuel wise to shift freight by HGV's than rail. Further savings are possible via electrification, particularly if generated by renewables eg wind or nuclear.

Infrastructure that would cost hundreds of billions to replace shouldn't be lightly discarded. Who would have thought fifty years ago that part of the old Bray line from Harcourt Street or part of the Navan line or the Midleton line would again come into being. Regarding rail freight, while the current volume percentage is extremely low compared to road freight, it must be remembered that rail is extremely suitable for shifting repetitive heavy bulk cargos such as the zinc ore from the Tara mines operation. As I understand it over 2000 tons of ore are transported daily via 3 train loads, straight to Dublin docks. Apart from congestion it saves a lot of damage to secondary roads from high axle loads.

steamengine

The following video illustrates the basic points above at about 2 minutes in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHkoaIsaDHc

bk

Super post popebenny16, one of the best I've ever read on boards and almost exactly correct.

So to sum up, we will see very little change in rail in Ireland over the next 20 years. The schedules will look much the same as they do today.

There will be some minor tweaks and speed up of the schedules, they will likely be able to drop the journey time by about 20 or 30 minutes to Cork/Galway/Limerick (2h 30m to Cork, 2h for Limerick and Galway).

They will have wifi across the whole fleet and hopefully they will manage to get per seat power working across the entire intercity fleet.

Don't expect any developments with high speed trains or electrification of the network, at least not for the next 30 years.

Forget about any fancy high end catering services and first class. You will find that the train services will become very standardised and boring.

The most important activity at Irish Rail will be cost cutting. With reduction in passenger numbers due to the recession and fierce new competition from much cheaper and currently faster direct coach services (i.e. Aircoach, GoBus, Citlink, DublinCoach, etc.) and with the government cutting subsidies to Irish Rail, you can expect big cost cutting at IR over the next few years.

To do this the emphasis will be on reducing staff numbers while trying to maintain current schedule level. While hard for those effected, it makes perfect sense. They already have a very large fleet of very new trains, so no point in not using them and let them run ideal. Expect a great deal of automation to help reduce staff members. Ticket sellers at almost all stations will go, replaced by online booking and TVM's. Just the odd ticket seller/customer support person and one or two big stations like Hueston, Connolly, etc. This is obviously the plan as they haven't bothered to give the staff the ability to sell LEAP cards at any DART or commuter station. The writing is on the wall.

Ticket checkers will be rare as they focus on the automated gates and checkers at the one or two big stations.

Trains will increasingly just have one driver and no other staff on board.

Cost cutting will be the big theme of the next 10 years. They have to do this to keep ticket prices down, so that they can compete with the motorways.

I don't expect much change in DART or Dublin commuter services. Other then minor schedule tweaks and the disappearance of staff from the stations. Hopefully we will eventually get Dart Underground and a big increase in the DART schedule. DU is definitely one of the most important projects in Ireland.

I don't expect much development of commuter services outside of Dublin. Certainly no new lines will be opened. Perhaps minor tweaks here and there. The thing is traffic isn't half as bad outside Dublin, therefore it makes driving and buses more attractive, so hard for rail to compete.

Steamengine rail freight is dead. Ireland is totally unsuited to it. Yes their might be the odd train per day to Tara, etc. but realistically rail freight makes up less then 1% of all freight moved in Ireland and that will not change.

popebenny16 you are right, it will be interesting to see what happens with the fleet renewal in 40 years time. Some tough and expensive decisions then. Electrify or not? Another option that might emerge before then would be hydrogen power cell or lithium-air battery powered trains. We don't know if these technologies will develop far enough by then, but if they do, they might avoid the expense of full electrification.

Another theme of the next 20 years will be the possible splitting up of IR and possible privatisation.

Oh the continued emergence of broadband, along with Skype, etc. will have a big impact on intercity rail.

So yes, rail does have a future in Ireland. But not a very exciting or different one.

Aidan1

Just wondering what you think the possibility of suburban rail in the other cities is? (In particular Limerick,

That's a good question. Essentially, the only city in Ireland (the State) outside of Dublin that's big enough for any kind of commuter rail system is Cork, at least as currently set out, and even that has some real difficulties. The others are a messy mix of too small and/or have developed in ways not entirely suitable for rail.

Waterford is far too small for a commuter 'system' and the station is distant from much of the employment, but that's not to say that with some scheduling chages it couldn't be more commuter oriented.

Limerick has a better located station in theory, but a lot of the newer jobs are miles away from it, and the city itself has done very poorly in terms of creating new jobs over the last decade. The line that goes around the city isn't exactly best located for supporting commuter traffic either.

Galway has grown a lot over the last decade, but much of the growth has been very distant from existing infrastructure (limited though it is).

In those three cases, better use of the existing infrastructure (incl timetabling to support commuting), better use of other public transport options (buses) to support rail, and better land use planning to future proof systems is the best that can be hoped for.

Cork has the problem that there is no heavy rail on the South side, and so large areas will go unserved (Carrigaline, Douglas, Ballincollig), but the CASP prioritises growth in areas that are already served (Midleton, Monard, Rathpeacon, Carrigtwohill). Better public transport within the city itself, including possibly light rail to the Southern suburbs, and you're done.

popebenny16

pigtown wrote: »

All seems very reasonable and well thought out. Just wondering what you think the possibility of suburban rail in the other cities is? (In particular Limerick, I seem to have an obsession with this at the moment but have yet to see anyone else who has given it much thought).

i belive that, given the physcial lines which currently exist, we have got roughly as much as we are going to get. Limerick currently has a form of commuter service from Ennis, Nenagh and Thurles. I am very anti drawing crayon lines on a map, we are into a post fiscal treaty era of balanced budgets and on that basis i just cannot see the justification for turning the sod anywhere. All that remains is to develop more services on existing lines.

Cork also hasthe Middleton/Cobh/Mallow surburban network or at least the bed for one to develop properly. Again, i cannot see the demand for EMU's outside of dublin based on reality and the cost.

Waterford, well, IE closed Rosslare which had potential, and there is some potential from Clonmel to Waterford, but as that line is a low hanging bit of fruit do not hold your breath.

steamengine

bk wrote: »

..............Steamengine rail freight is dead. Ireland is totally unsuited to it. Yes their might be the odd train per day to Tara, etc. but realistically rail freight makes up less then 1% of all freight moved in Ireland and that will not change.

I don't think so !!!

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/irish-rail-grows-freight-volumes-136pc-3023127.html

Judgement Day

steamengine wrote: »

I don't think so !!!

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/irish-rail-grows-freight-volumes-136pc-3023127.html

I wish I was as optimistic as you steamengine but given that the article was in the 'chip wrapper' and sourced from CIE spin doctors.......

steamengine

Judgement Day wrote: »

I wish I was as optimistic as you steamengine but given that the article was in the 'chip wrapper' and sourced from CIE spin doctors.......

I doubt if I should be all that optimistic really, but it does seem that 'Rail' in general has been thrown a life-line by the whole carbon emissions issue. Whether this life-line is grasped in Ireland, or just waffled on about, is another matter. Anyway here's a more upmarket chip wrapper for you.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0713/breaking44.html

pigtown

popebenny16 wrote: »

i belive that, given the physcial lines which currently exist, we have got roughly as much as we are going to get. Limerick currently has a form of commuter service from Ennis, Nenagh and Thurles. I am very anti drawing crayon lines on a map, we are into a post fiscal treaty era of balanced budgets and on that basis i just cannot see the justification for turning the sod anywhere. All that remains is to develop more services on existing lines.

I agree that drawing lines on a map gets you nowhere but I think that a service on existing lines, coupled with a Limerick Bikes system could cover most of the city, apart from the Ennis Road, Condell Road area. Then again I don't know much about organising a train service.

corktina

steamengine wrote: »

I don't think so !!!

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/irish-rail-grows-freight-volumes-136pc-3023127.html

"container traffic grows"...yeah from a really low base reached when they abandoned all other services. In reality freight is a fraction of what it was 10 or 20 years ago and the real trend is down, excepting the dead-cat-bounce brought about by Private Enterprise in the face of apathy from IE