Ulster vs Leinster, 2011/12 HEC Final, Sat May 19 5pm, pre/during/post match thread

thomond2006

When Leinster played Munster in front of 82,208 people in Croke Park, it was never thought that any day would eclipse what was then the biggest day in Irish club rugby history. However, it has only taken 3 seasons for that grand occasion to be overtaken. Saturday will be the day when Irish rugby covets the European rugby stage as its own. In their first European final for 13 seasons, Ulster bid to recreate the magical day in 1999 while Leinster's goals are more ambitious, to continue their epic dynasty since overtaking Munster and winning 3 titles in 4 seasons, as well as back to back titles.

Leinster:
Rob Kearney, Fergus McFadden, Brian O'Driscoll, Gordon D'Arcy, Isa Nacewa, Jonathan Sexton, Eoin Reddan
Cian Healy, Richardt Strauss, Mike Ross, Leo Cullen CAPTAIN, Brad Thorn, Kevin McLaughlin, Sean O'Brien, Jamie Heaslip

Replacements: Sean Cronin, Heinke van der Merwe, Nathan White, Devin Toner, Shane Jennings, Isaac Boss, Ian Madigan, David Kearney

Ulster:
Stefan Terblanche; Andrew Trimble, Darren Cave, Paddy Wallace, Craig Gilroy; Paddy Jackson, Ruan Pienaar
Tom Court, Rory Best, John Afoa, Johann Muller (Captain), Dan Tuohy, Stephen Ferris, Chris Henry, Pedrie Wannenburg

Replacements: Nigel Brady, Paddy McAllister, Declan Fitzpatrick, Lewis Stevenson, Willie Faloon, Paul Marshall, Ian Humphreys, Adam D'Arcy

Referee: Nigel Owens (Wales)

This season Leinster have been the great entertainers whilst showing immense discipline and power upfront. They are undoubtedly the strongest of the 2 sides in terms of their big match experience and temperment, both have been developed over years of success after years of heartbreak and disappointment. They have been able to put the foot on the gas to rout opposition (Bath at home and Cardiff) and aslo hang tough when their backs were against the wall while awaiting their moment to pounce for a crucial score (Montpellier away and Clermont). With the strongest squad in Europe and a second team that has destroyed opposition in the Pro12, Joe Schmidt and Leinster have taken the great foundations left by Michael Chieka and built a supreme group of the players.

Ulster's last few seasons have been decidedly different to Leinster's, until April and their win at Thomond Park, Ulster were considered the 3rd best province in Irish rugby. Their qualification for the quarter finals last season was seen as a good achievement but since then the goals have changed and Ulster Rugby is now far more ambitious. Backed up with top quality foreign signings in the shape of Afoa, Muller and Pienaar, Ulster have designs of being recognised among the great clubs of European rugby. Their win over Munster exemplified this ambition, the Ulster players believed they could beat Munster and duly did. It was not too long before that win that most fans saw Ulster exiting the competition at the pool stages. The often forgotten team of Irish Rugby is now firmly in the limelight.

THE SCRUM: Cian Healy vs John Afoa vs Nigel Owens!

Can Healy or Afoa get the upper hand over each other and the referee?

The scrum never fails to play a decisive role in the modern game, mostly due to the lack of consistency from officials. While a strong character, Nigel Owens has never shown himself to be an effective policeman of the dark arts of the scrum. Recently in a Munster vs Leinster derby, his indecision effectively ruined the game as a spectacle after countless resets and empty warnings to both front rows. One would hope the scrum does not become the "be all and end all" of who captures the trophy. In terms of personnel, John Afoa makes his return from suspension while Cian Healy is certain to start at loosehead for Leinster. Afoa is arguably the best tighthead prop playing in Ireland and Healy faces a huge test. However Afoa lacks gametime and Healy may only have to face 60 minutes against the awesome Kiwi.

THE GENERALS: Ruan Pienaar and Johnny Sexton

Both Pienaar and Sexton will be expected to be leaders for their sides.

This season Ruan Pienaar has justified the hype and become the key man for Ulster. With his brilliant kicking game, he has taken much of the pressure from the outhalf, be it Jackson or Humphreys. His goal kicking this season has been sublime, he has been a match winner time and time again with his siege gun boot. A superior all round player to Leinster's Reddan or Boss, Pienaar will dominate proceedings if Leinster fail to shut him down.

In the blue corner, Johnny Sexton has been outstanding and will be a key man again on Saturday. He has never failed Leinster in the big occasions and should be the dominant outhalf. With Pienaar able to kick from anywhere inside his own 10 metre line, it is imperative that Sexton kick his goals and play his natural game far away from Leinster's try line. This is not a game for Sexton to run the ball from the Leinster 22, this is a game where he must pin Ulster back in their half and out of Pienaar's penalty range.

PREDICTION:

For Ulster to win, they will want to suck Leinster into a dogfight and a physical confrontation. In terms of power, Ulster match Leinster. Leinster's advantage lies in the creativity of their backline. Should O'Driscoll be available it will be a huge benefit in this regard. Leinster should not fall into the trap that destroyed Munster and play keep ball, this will play into the hands of Ferris, Henry and Wannenburg. Their brilliant back play is capable of opening the Ulster defence, this must be their ultimate strike weapon.

As mentioned above, Pienaar's big boot is a huge asset to Ulster. Discipline is always crucial but particular when the opposition has a kicker with such a long range. Again Leinster must learn the lessons from Munster's loss and not give away kickable penalties.

Leinster to win by 12 points.

---

Player images taken from Planet Rugby/Sky Sports. Leinster and Ulster logos taken from www.therugbyforum.com. Heineken Cup trophy image taken from www.ercrugby.com.

Everything else is my own personal work.

mikedragon32

Leinster by more than 7.

I have a virtual hard-on. Epic post T2006.

Fishooks12

Ronan O'Gara

I think you should be in my course Thomond!

durkadurka

Leinster by more than 7.

Great op thomond.

I'm starting to cack myself now

Tox56

Leinster by more than 7.

You know it's close when the match thread comes around, I feel like a kid before Christmas.

It's a cliche nowadays, but this Leinster team really have the belief in themselves that they can win, somehow. So many close, decisive matches have gone their way in recent years, I have confidence in them.

John Doe1

Leinster by 7 or less.

Ulster to win by 5 wickets

Stand up for the ulstermen, stand up.....:D

ongarite

Leinster by more than 7.

Epic OP. This only raises the hype levels.

Leinster by 4 points, and then me buy 15 pints.

.ak

I love you thomond2006.


... just sayin...

LEIN

Ronan O'Gara

Leinster by 7.







I hope

durkadurka

Leinster by more than 7.

Don't be swelling his head too much now lads!

You'll turn him into a farrelly or something.

durkadurka

durkadurka wrote: »

Don't be swelling his head too much now lads.

You'll turn him into a Farrelly or something.

would've focussed more on the NIQ players

Rickwellwood

Leinster by 7 or less.

If Ulster start well as in the semifinal v Munster then its really game on imo - cant wait for this one and will be there in person so an added bonus - hopefully the game itself will live up to all the hype - as a Connacht supporter I cant wait for our next HC season so thanks both to Ulster and Leinster from us Connacht fans. HC rugby has done amazing things for the game here in the west - cheers

durkadurka

Leinster by more than 7.

Only the ulster ones! For some reason the Leinster and Munster ones don't count.

thomond2006

Ronan O'Gara

durkadurka wrote: »

You'll turn him into a farrelly or something.

Fishooks12

Ronan O'Gara

Leinster for me lads. Delighted Ulster got so far but they're up against the greatest Irish club side of all time Saturday and I can't see anything other than Cullen lifting the HC again

.ak

Watching last year's final... A kind of head-in-the-sand tactic... Me nurves!

durkadurka

Leinster by more than 7.

Leinster's back line letting a bit thin. Horgan, fitz, o malley and maybe BOD missing.
Ulster seem to have a full deck.


Leinster definitely have a superior bench but not a huge advantage anywhere else.

Leinster by 5 or 7.

ongarite

Leinster by more than 7.

Leinster by less than 7 for me.

Depending on the squad update tomorrow, I'll be giving Ulster more of a chance.
Reckon Fitzgerald a bigger loss than many will realise due to his excellent defence and link-up play.

profitius

Ronan O'Gara

Leinster by 10pts+. Ulster have a good team on paper but they're not they're playing the best team in Europe and they havn't beaten Leinster in a while. The pressure will be on Leinster but they're used to that now.

Leinster can really turn on the style in the big games and if they do it on saturday Ulster will find it hard to stop them scoring tries.

The lineout could be the main Ulster weapon. Dominate that and an upset could be on the cards. I do hope Ulster will come out to play more and not sit back. They've enough attacking talent to score tries.

I think Leinster will edge it at half time and pull away near the end.

profitius

Ronan O'Gara

The weather and ref could be factors too.

molloyjh

Leinster by more than 7.

I think Ulster will make life very difficult for Leinster. I don't see us getting the quick ball we've gotten in some games - Cardiff for example. Every bit of this game is going to be a battle and a half. I can see Leinster edging it, but I think it'll be very tight to the end. A lot could change depending on selections and fitness too...is Drico going to play, is Fez really up to 80 mins high intensity rugby etc. I also think the loss of Fitzy is a bigger deal than most think. His link play has been vital for us at times and I can't see Ferg being able to provide the same. God I'm nervous now. Just sitting in the airport waiting for my flight. Really want it to be 5pm Saturday right now....

Hippo

Very pessimistic talk about O'Driscoll over on LF. I'm trying not to think about it.

durkadurka

Leinster by more than 7.

R kearney a major doubt according to newstalk.

Oh dear god

decisions

Ronan O'Gara

Until I see the team sheet I refuse to believe anything.

who do we even have left if BOD and Kearney not available?

9. Boss
10. Sexton
11. Carr / Conway
12. D'Arcy
13. McFadden
14. D.Kearney
15. Nacewa

21. Reddan
22. Madigan
23. Reid?!?

This would be a team for an "away game" setup, which is unfortunately exactly what I don't think we should play against Ulster! But would we have other options?

Tox56

Leinster by more than 7.

Conway to step in and have the greatest HEC Final performance of all time.

As a sidenote, have we had this many injuries all season? What a bad time for this to happen..

irishbucsfan

Although if Carr starts in a Heineken Cup final it would quieten a few Connacht fans!

I wouldn't really have a problem lining Carr up against Gilroy tbh. Or Conway either.

I think if McFadden is playing 13 it increases the chances we'd start with Boss at half back.

It's a shame we've lost our back 3 as its Ulsters biggest weakness.

totallegend

Leinster by more than 7.

durkadurka wrote: »

R kearney a major doubt according to newstalk.

Oh dear god

Newstalk may just be picking this up off the Indo (or vice versa), it's three hours to team annoucenments so let's not freak out just yet.

I don't care what they're saying on LF, O'Driscoll will be playing.

(but if both of them are out, you put Carr and D Kearney on the wings, McFadden in the centre and Conway on the bench)

LuckyGent88

Leinster by 7 or less.

Really think Ulster can cause an upset and beat leinster so that Munster, Leinster and Ulster have 2 titles each.
Probably wont get to see the game where i am in oz but hopefully there is some good quality rugby with no injuries to any Irish players for the tour to NZ which im headin over to see.
Obviously Ferris to be MOTM. Ulster 29 Leinster 25

prospect

Ronan O'Gara

Lets not forget 09, when a wet-behind-the-ears Sexton started instead of Contepomi who had injured his cruciate.


Joe will put the right team on the pitch regardless of injuries.
Joe will put the right team on the pitch regardless of injuries.
Joe will put the right team on the pitch regardless of injuries.
Joe will put the right team on the pitch regardless of injuries.
Joe will put the right team on the pitch regardless of injuries.

Joe will put the right team on the pitch regardless of injuries.
Joe will put the right team on the pitch regardless of injuries.

Joe will put the right team on the pitch regardless of injuries.

Fade to black BLUE

d-gal

Hope Ulster win, will be fantastic for Irish rugby and hopefully that would promote plenty of their players to the Irish set up (Tuohy and Gilroy namely).
If Ulster lose then Munster will still be seen as the 2nd best province by majority.

It will be a great day anyways for Ireland, fantastic achievement by both provinces to reach this stage. Hopefully no injuries from the match!

lologram

Ronan O'Gara

d-gal wrote: »

Hope Ulster win, will be fantastic for Irish rugby and hopefully that would promote plenty of their players to the Irish set up (Tuohy and Gilroy namely).
If Ulster lose then Munster will still be seen as the 2nd best province by majority.

It will be a great day anyways for Ireland, fantastic achievement by both provinces to reach this stage. Hopefully no injuries from the match!

I really don't think so. That ship has sailed.

Tox56

Leinster by more than 7.

How crazy would it be to suggest:

9. Boss
10. Sexton
11. McFadden
12. Madigan
13. D'Arcy
14. D Kearney
15. Nacewa

in worst case scenario if injuries obviously, Madigan and Sexton played 10/12 last week..

d-gal

lologram wrote: »

d-gal wrote: »

Hope Ulster win, will be fantastic for Irish rugby and hopefully that would promote plenty of their players to the Irish set up (Tuohy and Gilroy namely).
If Ulster lose then Munster will still be seen as the 2nd best province by majority.

It will be a great day anyways for Ireland, fantastic achievement by both provinces to reach this stage. Hopefully no injuries from the match!

I really don't think so. That ship has sailed.

Ah I think the die hards, belief through the years, POC etc etc
I would nearly be 100% sure that munster will still be ahead of Ulster to win the HC next year with all the bookies if Ulster don't win it this year

totallegend

Leinster by more than 7.

Tox56 wrote: »

How crazy would it be to suggest:

9. Boss
10. Sexton
11. McFadden
12. Madigan
13. D'Arcy
14. D Kearney
15. Nacewa

in worst case scenario if injuries obviously, Madigan and Sexton played 10/12 last week..

And I don't think it worked, tbh, at times both of them seemed to be playing 10 and while obviously the attacking patterns were disrupted by the injuries, I don't think we adapted well to the Sexton-Madigan combination.

That said, Madigan has all the attributes to be a top-class 12; great hands, pace and a great eye for a gap in a defence, so maybe if Leinster had been trying this in training, it could work. I'd still be surprised though.

bamboozle

Ronan O'Gara

d-gal wrote: »

Hope Ulster win, will be fantastic for Irish rugby and hopefully that would promote plenty of their players to the Irish set up (Tuohy and Gilroy namely).
If Ulster lose then Munster will still be seen as the 2nd best province by majority.

It will be a great day anyways for Ireland, fantastic achievement by both provinces to reach this stage. Hopefully no injuries from the match!

firstly, Munster are not playing in this game.
secondly, Ulster have progressed further than Munster in the HC both this season and last, no doubt who are now considered the better team.

Leinster by 10, Schmidt is excellent at bringing on subs to impact the game, Ulster dont have the same strength in the starting 15 and certainly not on their bench.

fitz

Ronan O'Gara

d-gal wrote: »

Ah I think the die hards, belief through the years, POC etc etc
I would nearly be 100% sure that munster will still be ahead of Ulster to win the HC next year with all the bookies if Ulster don't win it this year

Can we stick to talking about the game?
Personally, I'd rather not have to wade through more of the provincial bullsh*t.
Munster are not in this game, if you want to talk about the effect of the result on the public's perception of provincial hierarchy, start a new thread.
Introducing the provincial nonsense to a match thread for the HEC final is a recipe for flaming.

Tox56

Leinster by more than 7.

totallegend wrote: »

Tox56 wrote: »

How crazy would it be to suggest:

9. Boss
10. Sexton
11. McFadden
12. Madigan
13. D'Arcy
14. D Kearney
15. Nacewa

in worst case scenario if injuries obviously, Madigan and Sexton played 10/12 last week..

And I don't think it worked, tbh, at times both of them seemed to be playing 10 and while obviously the attacking patterns were disrupted by the injuries, I don't think we adapted well to the Sexton-Madigan combination.

That said, Madigan has all the attributes to be a top-class 12; great hands, pace and a great eye for a gap in a defence, so maybe if Leinster had been trying this in training, it could work. I'd still be surprised though.

I'm not sure, I thought it showed promise, given how little preperation time they had. Their distribution was obviously superb, and they both offer something different with a kicking option, and the opposition won't know what is coming as they have rarely played together.

In any case, I think BOD will be on the field.

Quint2010

Leinster by more than 7.

Jeez Kearney and BOD major doubts?

This would be a massive blow to Leinster. But can't see both of them not making it. Why would BOD give a press conference earlier in the week if he didn't think he would make it. All smoke and mirrors I reckon.

LEIN

Ronan O'Gara

Quint2010 wrote: »

Jeez Kearney and BOD major doubts?

This would be a massive blow to Leinster. But can't see both of them not making it. Why would BOD give a press conference earlier in the week if he didn't think he would make it. All smoke and mirrors I reckon.

I hope so.

We will know for certain in a couple of hours.

bilston

Can I just say that as an Ulster fan I really hope Kearney and O'Driscoll are fit.

Kearney deserves to be in the final after the way he's played this season and to be honest I just loving watching BOD live and let's face it unless you're a Leinster ST holder there aren't going to be too many more opportunities to see the great man live.

It would of course be a bit of a leveller if both players were out, but that's not how I want Ulster to win not that it would lessen the achievement should it pan out that way.

Anyway as an Ulsterman I realise we're underdogs but I'm not going to bet against my team so I'm going to say Ulster to surprise everyone by playing an open brand of rugby and to win 27-23.

fitz

Ronan O'Gara

The battle of the front 8's is going to be epic. I think Ulster will target the line out and play territory, while doing their best to slow down our ball at the breakdown.

We can't afford to give penalties away with the machine-like characteristics of Piennar's boot, so discipline is going to be key.

I think the bench is where the difference will be. Ulster just don't have the squad strength to freshen things up without weakening the team somewhat, while we have potential starters waiting to come on.

While I reckon it'll be closer than some people think for most of the game, I can see us pulling away in the second half and winning my two scores.

That's what I keep telling myself anyway, but this is the Heineken Cup Final, anything could happen. Nervous!

bilston

fitz wrote: »

I think the bench is where the difference will be. Ulster just don't have the squad strength to freshen things up without weakening the team somewhat, while we have potential starters waiting to come on.

No doubts that the Leinster bench is stronger, although in fairness McAlistair, Stevenson, Marshall, Humphreys and D'Arcy can all have a positive impact for us too. I think the fact that Ulster kept their starting XV on the pitch for 80 mins against Munster has probably hyped the depth issue at Ulster beyond where it should be. It's a factor but I'm not sure it's as big a factor as people think.

Tox56

Leinster by more than 7.

bilston wrote: »

fitz wrote: »

I think the bench is where the difference will be. Ulster just don't have the squad strength to freshen things up without weakening the team somewhat, while we have potential starters waiting to come on.

No doubts that the Leinster bench is stronger, although in fairness McAlistair, Stevenson, Marshall, Humphreys and D'Arcy can all have a positive impact for us too. I think the fact that Ulster kept their starting XV on the pitch for 80 mins against Munster has probably hyped the depth issue at Ulster beyond where it should be. It's a factor but I'm not sure it's as big a factor as people think.

It's just that man for man, Leinster have better players and more experience in almost every position on the bench.

fitz

Ronan O'Gara

bilston wrote: »

Kearney deserves to be in the final after the way he's played this season...

Would be absolutely gutting for him to miss out again...

Quint2010

Leinster by more than 7.

DD9090 wrote: »

I hope so.

We will know for certain in a couple of hours.

Maybe -maybe not. They could be named but there is a captains run in Twickenham this afternoon and both players will need to come through that unscathed

Fishooks12

Ronan O'Gara

Have a feeling Kearney and BOD will both be fine

CatFromHue

d-gal wrote: »

If Ulster lose then Munster will still be seen as the 2nd best province by majority.

Without going into it in too much detail remember Munster finished 11 points clear of Ulster in the Rabo. I don't think it's as clear cut about what team is placed where in the second and third spot in the Irish rankings.

Tox56 wrote: »

I'm not sure, I thought it showed promise, given how little preperation time they had. Their distribution was obviously superb, and they both offer something different with a kicking option, and the opposition won't know what is coming as they have rarely played together.

In any case, I think BOD will be on the field.

I thought it was poor to be honest and I didn't see Madigan bringing enough to the 12 spot to be considered for 12 again. Well certainly not tomorrow anyway. I don't think he fixed enough defenders and they were able to drift wide onto the further out Leinster attackers. There was some lovely passing all right but on a couple of occasions he skip passed it out to a near static Dave Kearney who then had the Glasgow drift coming at him as one. Defence wasn't a problem but attack was.

Quint2010

Leinster by more than 7.

The Sky Sports guys take on the game...

http://www1.skysports.com/rugby-union/news/12325/7760751/Kings-of-Europe-

Cormic

Leinster by more than 7.

If Kearney is out we could not have a better replacement in Nacewa. I believe that Isa can have a much bigger influence in the game as full back then as a winger.