Champions League Final - Tips,Picks,Bookies offers and Discussion

yesbuddie

It's Bayern v Chelsea - Really can't wait for this one :D

I thought a Champions League Final deserved it's own thread like last year.

PP seems to be the first ones out with their offer

If Chelsea win the Champions League, Paddy Power will refund all losing First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer, Correct Score and Scorecast singles on the game.

While that is a fairly savage offer, I can't see Chelsea winning with 4 key players suspended.

Bayern (-2) are 6/1 but got spanked 5-2 at the weekend in a Cup Final.

Any other decent offers out there?

okidoki987

Not as good as last years CL offer though .

IncognitoMan

Are many people thinking of the west ham, bayern double on saturday?

Shane St.

I think it looks a great bet... I've it done already
Also have a smaller stake on them both in a handicap double
If west ham comes in can hedge later to guarantee profit too

IncognitoMan

Both -1 is it in the handicap? what odds is that?

Rastapitts

im thinking the Hibs, Blackpool, Bayern Treble!

IncognitoMan

I went for the west ham, bayern and Leinster(-5) Treble. 25 wins 145

Super-Rush

William Hill are offering existing customers a free €10 bet with no deposit required.Its for the Champions League final only and can only be a single bet. If your bet comes in they keep the stake. Its a great offer, but not everybody gets it. Its worth checking your emails though.

Super-Rush

I'm thinking this, Over 2.5 Goals and Over 12 Corners and Over 6 Cards @ 33/1.

Formation

Its too unpredictable a match to go heavy on.

In my opinion the best bet that I have priced up with the highest expected ROI is over 30 booking points at 4/9.

Will be having a fairly sizeable stake on that as my only bet.

Take the bookies for a little bit every weekend and it amounts to a lot at the end of the year.

stingerro

Not sure which bookies will offer that, but here are mine (not exactly mine, but it's what I like after big research) reccomendations:

- big bet (for the ones who can afford it) on Bayern winning a possession battle. They lost it only twice this season in two meaningless games and apparently you can get it for 1/3 (apology - my mistake for writing "4/3" earlier, sorry). Not a big price, but when team is winning it like 95%, than it's not bad. Chelsea will probably get man behind the ball and try to counter attack them, don't see it another way. Especially after seeing Dortmund DFB Cup final.

- same goes for shots on target. Don't want to post a whole introduction, to the bet but Bayern were better in this stat in 75% of CL games, and you can get it I think for around 1.60

- Robben over 1.5 shots @ evens and Ribery over 0.5 shots @ 7/10 on unibet looks good as well.

- Not sure about corners (both team are not a high corner amount teams), but with Chelsea potentially defending deep Ribery and Robben can win a few.

- Referee from Portugal Proenca is quite a card happy guy, so especially when game opens up (if it ever happen) over 4.5 cards looks decent.

yesno1234

stingerro wrote: »

Not sure which bookies will offer that, but here are mine (not exactly mine, but it's what I like after big research) reccomendations:

Where can ya get the possession bet? Really like the look of it.

Edit: Found it here http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/bayern-munich-v-chelsea/most-time-in-possession 4/11 best price

Edit 2: Gonna request odds off a few sites see if anything better will be given.

andrew241983

Super-Rush wrote: »

I'm thinking this, Over 2.5 Goals and Over 12 Corners and Over 6 Cards @ 33/1.

where did ye get this mate might have a cheeky few quid on this

Blatter

Over 2.5 goals, are ye mad?

I fully expect Chelsea to park the bus and frustrate the life out of Bayern. I don't foresee this being a great game to watch and I think it's unlikely we'll see many goals.

andrew241983

went for a mad bet but its all in the name of a bit more interest in the game and having some fun..

over 2.5 goals
over 15 corners
ribery to be booked......10 euro pays 900...

i wont hold my breath though but its only a tenner at the end of the day

Super-Rush

andrew241983 wrote: »

where did ye get this mate might have a cheeky few quid on this

William Hill.

yesno1234

Blatter wrote: »

Over 2.5 goals, are ye mad?

I fully expect Chelsea to park the bus and frustrate the life out of Bayern. I don't foresee this being a great game to watch and I think it's unlikely we'll see many goals.

+1 have to agree, the only way over 2.5 goals and over 12 corners will come in is if Chelsea score first, as Bayern will have to go all out attack. Don't see it happening at all, still though at 33/1 it is pretty obvious that there's a very slim chance so if ya think it's worth a few € go for it.

stingerro

If anyone here speaks Greek, than he can offer a better translation than used here by Google Translator. If not, it will have to do:

From 1993 onwards when the European Cup was renamed the Champions League final 19 have been performed and the average bookings points in 90 minutes was 39. The yellow card counts 10 bookings points
and 25 red, with a maximum in each player the 35 bookings points.

In tomorrow's final between Liverpool and Chelsea in under 47.5 bookings points found in the 1.75 (57%) chance, and pull out the possibility that the Portuguese referi Proensa (photo) less than 4.5
yellow cards in 1.83 (55% probability).

In 14/19 (74%) finals of the Champions League bookings points overall was less than 47.5, while in 15/19 (79%) less than 4.5 came out yellow. In the 2006 final between Barcelona and Arsenal was
eliminated with a direct red Lehmann and so the total bookings were 55, while only three yellow. For this reason, and because the yield is higher, will prefer the yellow under 4.5.

Also worth noting that in 10 Champions League final which involved a group from England or Germany, the average of only 34 bookings, the 9/10 matches were less than 47.5 bookings and 10/10 less than
4.5 yellow.

The Proensa the last two years in the Champions League brings an average of 50 bookings and 4.6 yellow, but in the end almost all the referees are more lenient than the games in groups or knockout.

Surprised to see it to be honest, thought CL finals are having more cards usually.

thebison

Decent offer

"If the Champions League Final between Bayern Munich and Chelsea goes to extra time, we will refund all losing first/last/anytime goalscorer and losing correct score bets from this game"

Really do fancy over 2.5 goals

Super-Rush

thebison wrote: »

Decent offer



Really do fancy over 2.5 goals

Who's offering this?

Hamadeusentman

On Robben wincast at 16/5. €15 on.

And 'heineken player rater man of the match' to be Schweinsteiger. 8/1. €5 on.

Both with PP.

yesno1234

Boylesports are offering 5/6 for Bayern over 57.5% possession, I like the look of it. Anyone any thoughts on it?

Fizman

yesno1234 wrote: »

+1 have to agree, the only way over 2.5 goals and over 12 corners will come in is if Chelsea score first, as Bayern will have to go all out attack. Don't see it happening at all, still though at 33/1 it is pretty obvious that there's a very slim chance so if ya think it's worth a few € go for it.

I reckon it's the other way around. For it to be that open, Bayern need to score first. If Chelsea are chasing the game, they will have to take chances, and against this Bayern team could get picked off on the counter attack.

If Chelsea score first, I see a game similar to the Barca match, where they sit back and squeeze the game out.

robertowjr

Lumped on Bayern to lift the trophy, West Ham to be promoted, Leinster to lift the trophy treble, odds @ 2.75.

Best of luck to everyone.

Pudsy33

Gone with Drogba anytime and Drogba to score 2 or more

yesno1234

Stan James offering 4/5 for Chelsea to have less than 45% possession. Think the lower price is worth it for the few extra %. Another bet I like the look of is the first goal to be scored after 27th min, expect it to be a very tight affair, can see the first half being scoreless. Any thoughts on these would be appreciated.

robertowjr

yesno1234 wrote: »

Stan James offering 4/5 for Chelsea to have less than 45% possession. Think the lower price is worth it for the few extra %. Another bet I like the look of is the first goal to be scored after 27th min, expect it to be a very tight affair, can see the first half being scoreless. Any thoughts on these would be appreciated.

Can't see Chesea having more that 45% of possesion, maybe if Bayern score very early Chelsea will need to attack and retain the possesion but still, can't see them having 45%+.

Not sure about the early goal, might happen you never know, I personally think Bayern will put some pressure on in the first minutes. First bet is alot safer in my opinion.

Best of luck pal.

Fizman

Two bets I think I'll go with:

Bayern win in 90 & Ulster +14 @ 5/2
Ulster to score 0 tries @ 6/5

Headshot

Boyles have a market iv never seen before

Possession stat

Bayern to have to over Over 57.5% is 5/6. That really stands out at me

yesno1234

Headshot wrote: »

Boyles have a market iv never seen before

Possession stat

Bayern to have to over Over 57.5% is 5/6. That really stands out at me

Ye I mentioned it a few posts ago, Stanjames have Chelsea to have 44.9% or less possession at 4/5.

stingerro

yesno1234 wrote: »

Ye I mentioned it a few posts ago, Stanjames have Chelsea to have 44.9% or less possession at 4/5.

This sounds like an excellent bet.

Formation

Have decided on my 2 bets.

70% over 30 booking points.

30% bosingwa to be booked.

Super-Rush

Went for this in the end with my free bet.

Bayern Munich Win and 10-12 Corners and Over 6 Cards @ 25/1

Stake : €10.00

Formation

Super-Rush wrote: »

Went for this in the end with my free bet.

Bayern Munich Win and 10-12 Corners and Over 6 Cards @ 25/1

Stake : ?10.00

value there imo. Good luck.

Sútalún

My three bets for the day -

Most of my money went on straight double of
West Ham Win
Bayern Win
Which was 2.5 or there abouts I think

Then two trebles of

Over 2.5 in Championship Final
Under 2.5 in CL Final
Leinster -8
Which comes in at 5/1

Both Teams to Score in Champ Final
Under 38.5 points in HC final
Bayern to win to nil
Which is 7.5/1

The money I used is money won over the last few weeks. If I win, it'll be great and go towards a holiday. If I don't win, at the very least I hope the bets come down to the CL final, I'll be in work for rest of it!

I based all my bets on the fact that I think the Championship Final will be quite open/high scoring..with WH coming out on top. That the HC final will be won by Leinster running away with it in the second half, however a tense enough first half. And that Bayern will win by a goal or two to nil.

Here's hoping! Best of luck to everyone tomorrow. I envy all of you who are in front of the TV all day.

Fizman

Live treble of Bayern to win, over 10 corners and card index over 40 points @ 7/1 looks nice to me.

DesperateDan

I've spent 5 on these in Paddy's:
Half time Bayern Munich 1-0, Full time Chelsea 1-2 @ 100/1
Draw, over ten corners and card index of over 40 pts @ 16/1
I'm willing to throw away €5 more on this match but not sure where abouts!

bassy

DesperateDan wrote: »

I've spent 5 on these in Paddy's:
Half time Bayern Munich 1-0, Full time Chelsea 1-2 @ 100/1
Draw, over ten corners and card index of over 40 pts @ 16/1
I'm willing to throw away €5 more on this match but not sure where abouts!

How about usinge other 5 euros on bayern to win on penalties.

DesperateDan

Well that's 12/1 for either team which is odd, from what I hear (and without making any sweeping generalizations); Germans are great at penalties :pac:
Might do it though cheers

mailburner

boylesports prices are scandalous on some of these

gomez, robben to score two or more 5s + 7s

paddy are 7s+14s

shop around

went for robben 1st gs 13/2 pp
robben wincast 16/5 (21/10 boyles lol )
robben + 2-0 40/1

Fizman

Anyone have any idea on how the card index went for recent finals?

thebison

Super-Rush wrote: »

Who's offering this?

Setantabet.

VC are offering 14/1 for Drogba to score anytime with a head

worth a cheeky 5er

DesperateDan

Finally added 2-1 and Gomez to score first @ 25-1
Torres to score anytime @ 5-1
Chelsea to win and over 40 pts and over 10 corners @ 19-1
Same for Bayern @ 11-2 :rolleyes:

So hopefully the match will be full of yellows and corners at least

stingerro

Fizman wrote: »

Anyone have any idea on how the card index went for recent finals?

On page #2 I posted a translated (by Google) article about this. In general - final games tend to have much less cards than expected. Under was suggested for today's match, but I will probably look into In Live opportunities for over, when 1st goal will be scored. No bookings before and 1st goal to be scored in 2nd half would be a great opportunity to game finished with over 2.5 or 3.5 bookings.

Fizman

DesperateDan wrote: »

Finally added 2-1 and Gomez to score first @ 25-1
Torres to score anytime @ 5-1
Chelsea to win and over 40 pts and over 10 corners @ 19-1
Same for Bayern @ 11-2 :rolleyes:

So hopefully the match will be full of yellows and corners at least

I got that @ 7/1 about an hour ago. That came in a lot since then!

insanity50

Munich, West Ham and Leinster treble for me.

4.4 something on BF.

30 euros returns 90 something.

Best of luck for the day gents.

''To the victor, belongs the spoils.''

madma

insanity50 wrote: »

Munich, West Ham and Leinster treble for me.

4.4 something on BF.

30 euros returns 90 something.

Best of luck for the day gents.

''To the victor, belongs the spoils.''

thought you could only do football in the multiples on BF.. maybe its a featured one

i take that its all to win normal time and not lift the cups?

the groutch

Ribery for MOTM @ 15/2 for me

Headshot

Any teams news for the CL final yet?

Vurnon San Benito

Bayern Munich: Neuer; Lahm, Tymoschchuk, Boateng, Contento; Robben, Muller, Ribery, Kroos, Schweinsteiger; Gomez

Chelsea: Cech; Bosingwa, Cahill, Luiz, Bosingwa; Mikel, Lampard; Kalou, Mata, Bertrand; Drogba

Headshot

Bosingwa, Jose @ 7/4
Bayern Munich v Chelsea
Player To Be Booked
Total stake €30.00
Estimated return €82.50