Champions League Final - Tips,Picks,Bookies offers and Discussion

yesbuddie

It's Bayern v Chelsea - Really can't wait for this one :D

I thought a Champions League Final deserved it's own thread like last year.

PP seems to be the first ones out with their offer

If Chelsea win the Champions League, Paddy Power will refund all losing First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer, Correct Score and Scorecast singles on the game.

While that is a fairly savage offer, I can't see Chelsea winning with 4 key players suspended.

Bayern (-2) are 6/1 but got spanked 5-2 at the weekend in a Cup Final.

Any other decent offers out there?

okidoki987

Not as good as last years CL offer though .

IncognitoMan

Are many people thinking of the west ham, bayern double on saturday?

Shane St.

I think it looks a great bet... I've it done already
Also have a smaller stake on them both in a handicap double
If west ham comes in can hedge later to guarantee profit too

IncognitoMan

Both -1 is it in the handicap? what odds is that?

Rastapitts

im thinking the Hibs, Blackpool, Bayern Treble!

IncognitoMan

I went for the west ham, bayern and Leinster(-5) Treble. 25 wins 145

Super-Rush

William Hill are offering existing customers a free €10 bet with no deposit required.Its for the Champions League final only and can only be a single bet. If your bet comes in they keep the stake. Its a great offer, but not everybody gets it. Its worth checking your emails though.

Super-Rush

I'm thinking this, Over 2.5 Goals and Over 12 Corners and Over 6 Cards @ 33/1.

Formation

Its too unpredictable a match to go heavy on.

In my opinion the best bet that I have priced up with the highest expected ROI is over 30 booking points at 4/9.

Will be having a fairly sizeable stake on that as my only bet.

Take the bookies for a little bit every weekend and it amounts to a lot at the end of the year.

stingerro

Not sure which bookies will offer that, but here are mine (not exactly mine, but it's what I like after big research) reccomendations:

- big bet (for the ones who can afford it) on Bayern winning a possession battle. They lost it only twice this season in two meaningless games and apparently you can get it for 1/3 (apology - my mistake for writing "4/3" earlier, sorry). Not a big price, but when team is winning it like 95%, than it's not bad. Chelsea will probably get man behind the ball and try to counter attack them, don't see it another way. Especially after seeing Dortmund DFB Cup final.

- same goes for shots on target. Don't want to post a whole introduction, to the bet but Bayern were better in this stat in 75% of CL games, and you can get it I think for around 1.60

- Robben over 1.5 shots @ evens and Ribery over 0.5 shots @ 7/10 on unibet looks good as well.

- Not sure about corners (both team are not a high corner amount teams), but with Chelsea potentially defending deep Ribery and Robben can win a few.

- Referee from Portugal Proenca is quite a card happy guy, so especially when game opens up (if it ever happen) over 4.5 cards looks decent.

yesno1234

stingerro wrote: »

Not sure which bookies will offer that, but here are mine (not exactly mine, but it's what I like after big research) reccomendations:

Where can ya get the possession bet? Really like the look of it.

Edit: Found it here http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/bayern-munich-v-chelsea/most-time-in-possession 4/11 best price

Edit 2: Gonna request odds off a few sites see if anything better will be given.

andrew241983

Super-Rush wrote: »

I'm thinking this, Over 2.5 Goals and Over 12 Corners and Over 6 Cards @ 33/1.

where did ye get this mate might have a cheeky few quid on this

Blatter

Over 2.5 goals, are ye mad?

I fully expect Chelsea to park the bus and frustrate the life out of Bayern. I don't foresee this being a great game to watch and I think it's unlikely we'll see many goals.

andrew241983

went for a mad bet but its all in the name of a bit more interest in the game and having some fun..

over 2.5 goals
over 15 corners
ribery to be booked......10 euro pays 900...

i wont hold my breath though but its only a tenner at the end of the day

Super-Rush

andrew241983 wrote: »

where did ye get this mate might have a cheeky few quid on this

William Hill.

yesno1234

Blatter wrote: »

Over 2.5 goals, are ye mad?

I fully expect Chelsea to park the bus and frustrate the life out of Bayern. I don't foresee this being a great game to watch and I think it's unlikely we'll see many goals.

+1 have to agree, the only way over 2.5 goals and over 12 corners will come in is if Chelsea score first, as Bayern will have to go all out attack. Don't see it happening at all, still though at 33/1 it is pretty obvious that there's a very slim chance so if ya think it's worth a few € go for it.

stingerro

If anyone here speaks Greek, than he can offer a better translation than used here by Google Translator. If not, it will have to do:

From 1993 onwards when the European Cup was renamed the Champions League final 19 have been performed and the average bookings points in 90 minutes was 39. The yellow card counts 10 bookings points
and 25 red, with a maximum in each player the 35 bookings points.

In tomorrow's final between Liverpool and Chelsea in under 47.5 bookings points found in the 1.75 (57%) chance, and pull out the possibility that the Portuguese referi Proensa (photo) less than 4.5
yellow cards in 1.83 (55% probability).

In 14/19 (74%) finals of the Champions League bookings points overall was less than 47.5, while in 15/19 (79%) less than 4.5 came out yellow. In the 2006 final between Barcelona and Arsenal was
eliminated with a direct red Lehmann and so the total bookings were 55, while only three yellow. For this reason, and because the yield is higher, will prefer the yellow under 4.5.

Also worth noting that in 10 Champions League final which involved a group from England or Germany, the average of only 34 bookings, the 9/10 matches were less than 47.5 bookings and 10/10 less than
4.5 yellow.

The Proensa the last two years in the Champions League brings an average of 50 bookings and 4.6 yellow, but in the end almost all the referees are more lenient than the games in groups or knockout.

Surprised to see it to be honest, thought CL finals are having more cards usually.

thebison

Decent offer

"If the Champions League Final between Bayern Munich and Chelsea goes to extra time, we will refund all losing first/last/anytime goalscorer and losing correct score bets from this game"

Really do fancy over 2.5 goals

Super-Rush

thebison wrote: »

Decent offer



Really do fancy over 2.5 goals

Who's offering this?

Hamadeusentman

On Robben wincast at 16/5. €15 on.

And 'heineken player rater man of the match' to be Schweinsteiger. 8/1. €5 on.

Both with PP.

yesno1234

Boylesports are offering 5/6 for Bayern over 57.5% possession, I like the look of it. Anyone any thoughts on it?

Fizman

yesno1234 wrote: »

+1 have to agree, the only way over 2.5 goals and over 12 corners will come in is if Chelsea score first, as Bayern will have to go all out attack. Don't see it happening at all, still though at 33/1 it is pretty obvious that there's a very slim chance so if ya think it's worth a few € go for it.

I reckon it's the other way around. For it to be that open, Bayern need to score first. If Chelsea are chasing the game, they will have to take chances, and against this Bayern team could get picked off on the counter attack.

If Chelsea score first, I see a game similar to the Barca match, where they sit back and squeeze the game out.

robertowjr

Lumped on Bayern to lift the trophy, West Ham to be promoted, Leinster to lift the trophy treble, odds @ 2.75.

Best of luck to everyone.

Pudsy33

Gone with Drogba anytime and Drogba to score 2 or more

yesno1234

Stan James offering 4/5 for Chelsea to have less than 45% possession. Think the lower price is worth it for the few extra %. Another bet I like the look of is the first goal to be scored after 27th min, expect it to be a very tight affair, can see the first half being scoreless. Any thoughts on these would be appreciated.

robertowjr

yesno1234 wrote: »

Stan James offering 4/5 for Chelsea to have less than 45% possession. Think the lower price is worth it for the few extra %. Another bet I like the look of is the first goal to be scored after 27th min, expect it to be a very tight affair, can see the first half being scoreless. Any thoughts on these would be appreciated.

Can't see Chesea having more that 45% of possesion, maybe if Bayern score very early Chelsea will need to attack and retain the possesion but still, can't see them having 45%+.

Not sure about the early goal, might happen you never know, I personally think Bayern will put some pressure on in the first minutes. First bet is alot safer in my opinion.

Best of luck pal.

Fizman

Two bets I think I'll go with:

Bayern win in 90 & Ulster +14 @ 5/2
Ulster to score 0 tries @ 6/5

Headshot

Boyles have a market iv never seen before

Possession stat

Bayern to have to over Over 57.5% is 5/6. That really stands out at me

yesno1234

Headshot wrote: »

Boyles have a market iv never seen before

Possession stat

Bayern to have to over Over 57.5% is 5/6. That really stands out at me

Ye I mentioned it a few posts ago, Stanjames have Chelsea to have 44.9% or less possession at 4/5.

stingerro

yesno1234 wrote: »

Ye I mentioned it a few posts ago, Stanjames have Chelsea to have 44.9% or less possession at 4/5.

This sounds like an excellent bet.