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Football and hurling championship draw's log 2012

  • 03-05-2012 6:16pm
    #1
    KevIRL
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,693 ✭✭✭✭


    So following on from last years thread here its time to come back for more punishment and test the theory that GAA refs often look for draws and it can be quite profitable to back the draw.

    Last year turned out to be a disaster with the final bank at -€395 from backing a draw in every single championship game in hurling and football. Perhaps the introduction of the backdoor, extra time have reduced the tendancy. Well anyway 1 season is a v small sample size so here goes again with the football championship starting this Sunday

    6th May
    Sligo v New York 20/1, €10. Potential returns €210

    Bank -€10


Comments

  • #2
    KevIRL
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,693 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    Am heading away on hols for a week on Saturday so will put up the next 2 weeks now

    19th May
    Westmeath v Antrim 11/1, €10. Potential returns €120
    Carlow v Laois 9/1, €10. Potential returns €100

    20th May
    Louth v Westmeath 15/2, €10. Potential returns €85
    Longford v Laois 7/1, €10. Potential returns €80
    Meath v Wicklow 9/1, €10. Potential returns €100
    Limerick v Waterford 8/1, €10. Potential returns €90
    Cavan v Donegal 15/2, €10. Potential returns €85
    Roscommon v Galway 15/2, €10. Potential returns €85

    27th May
    Tipp v Kerry 28/1, €10. Potential returns €290
    Monaghan v Antrim 15/2, €10. Potential returns €85
    Tipp v Limerick 12/1, €10. Potential returns €130

    Old bank -€10. New bank -€120


  • #3
    KevIRL
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,693 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    Sigh, not off to a good start at all then

    2nd June
    Dublin v Laois 25/1, €10. Potential returns €260
    Offaly v Wexford 9/1, €10. Potential returns €100

    3rd June
    Galway v Westmeath 33/1, €10. Potential returns €340
    Wexford v Longford 15/2, €10. Potential returns €95
    London v Leitrim 13/2, €10. Potential returns €75
    Fermanagh v Down 15/2, €10. Potential returns €95
    Dublin V Laoise 25/1, €10. Potential returns €260

    Old Bank -€120, New Bank -€190


  • #4
    KevIRL
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,693 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    At last a draw, thank you Wexford and Longford.

    9th June
    Galway v Sligo 10/1, €10. Potential returns €110
    Clare v Limerick 15/2, €10. Potential returns €85

    10th June
    Armagh v Tyrone 15/2, €10. Potential returns €85
    Meath v Carlow 16/1, €10. Potential returns €170
    Cork v Kerry 7/1, €10. Potential returns €80
    Longford v Wexford €10, 15/2. Potential returns €85

    Old Balance -€190 New Balance -€165


  • #5
    MyStubbleItches
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,570 ✭✭✭MyStubbleItches


    KevIRL wrote: »
    At last a draw, thank you Wexford and Longford.

    Had Wexford to win as the first part of a 4-way accu, the rest obliged so feck Wexford and Longford. :D:D


  • #6
    KevIRL
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,693 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    Goooooooo Carlow. Back in the black (albeit temporarily). Looked like we might have another Wexford-Longford draw as well too.


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  • #7
    KevIRL
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,693 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    Sat 16th June
    Derry v Donegal 15/2, €10. Potential returns €85
    Meath v Carlow 14/1, €10. Potential returns €150

    Sun 17th June
    Kildare v Offaly 20/1, €10. Potential returns €210
    Galway v Offaly 10/1, €10. Potential returns €110
    Waterford v Clare 9/1, €10. Potential returns €100

    Old Bank -€165, New Bank -€45


  • #8
    KevIRL
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,693 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    Good run had to stop sometime soon, no draw last weekend.

    Sat 23rd June
    Wexford v Westmeath, 20/1, €10. Potential returns €210
    Limerick v Laois, 33/1, €10. Potential returns €340
    Kilkenny v Dublin, 12/1 €10. Potential returns €130

    Sun 24th June
    Cork v Tipp, 10/1 €10. Potential returns €110
    Down v Monaghan, 15/2, €10. Potential returns €85
    Mayo v Leitrim, 33/1, €10. Potential returns €340

    Old Bank -€45, New Bank -€105


  • #9
    KevIRL
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,693 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    Thought Cork and Tipp might have rescued the weekend at a few points durign their game but alas not to be. Lot of games this weekend with round 1 of Football qualifiers.....

    Sat 30th June
    London v Antrim 9/1, €10. Potential returns €100
    Waterford v Wicklow 10/1, €10. Potential returns €110
    Donegal v Tyron 15/2, €10. Potential returns €85
    Laois v Carlow 16/1, €10. Potential returns €170
    Westmeath v Louth 15/2, €10. Potential returns €85
    Tipp v Offaly 15/2, €10. Potential returns €85
    Longford v Derry 15/2, €10. Potential returns €85
    Wexford v Carlow 50/1, €10. Potential returns €510
    Limerick v Antrim 40/1, €10. Potential returns €410

    Sun 1st July
    Kildare v Meath 9/1, €10. Potential returns €100
    Roscommon v Armagh 8/1, €10. Potential returns €90
    Fermanagh v Cavan 13/2, €10. Potential returns €75
    Dublin v Wexford 16/1, €10. Potential returns €170

    Old Bank -€105, New Bank -€235


  • #10
    KevIRL
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,693 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    My own county Waterford unfortunately let a winning position slip to draw with Wicklow. Good news though for the experiment. Also thankfully the end of burning money in the early rounds of the hurling qualifiers

    Sat 7th July
    Clare v Dublin 9/1, €10. Potential returns €100
    Cork v Offaly 18/1, €10. Potential returns €190

    Sun 8th July
    Kilkenny v Galway 12/1, €10. Potential returns €130
    Cork v Clare 28/1, €10. Potential returns €290

    Old Bank -€235, New Bank -€165


  • #11
    KevIRL
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,693 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    All blanks last weekend, a huge amount of games this weekend though with qualifiers in both codes and 2 provincial finals.

    Sat 14th July
    Roscommon v Tyrone 8/1, €10. Potential returns €90
    Longford v Limerick 15/2, €10. Potential returns €85
    Antrim v Galway 15/2, €10. Potential returns €85
    Tipp v Wexford 15/2, €10. Potential returns €85
    Leitrim v Wicklow 15/2, €10. Potential returns €85
    Cork v Wexford 16/1, €10. Potential returns €170
    Limerick v Clare 9/1, €10. Potential returns €100

    Sun 15th July
    Mayo v Sligo 9/1, €10. Potential returns €100
    Westmeath v Kerry 20/1, €10. Potential returns €210
    Cavan v Kildare 10/1, €10. Potential returns €110
    Laois v Monaghan 15/2, €10. Potential returns €85
    Tipp v Waterford 12/1, €10. Potential returns €130

    Old Bank -€235, New Bank -€355


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  • #12
    MrJoeSoap
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,117 ✭✭✭✭MrJoeSoap


    KevIRL wrote: »
    All blanks last weekend, a huge amount of games this weekend though with qualifiers in both codes and 2 provincial finals.

    Sat 14th July
    Roscommon v Tyrone 8/1 (9/1 with Boyles), €10. Potential returns €90
    Longford v Limerick 15/2 (9/1 with SJ, Boyles), €10. Potential returns €85
    Antrim v Galway 15/2 (8/1 with BV,WH and B365), €10. Potential returns €85
    Tipp v Wexford 15/2 (8/1 with SB, B365 and BV), €10. Potential returns €85
    Leitrim v Wicklow 15/2 (8/1 with B365 and BV), €10. Potential returns €85
    Cork v Wexford 16/1, €10. Potential returns €170
    Limerick v Clare 9/1, €10. Potential returns €100

    Sun 15th July
    Mayo v Sligo 9/1, €10. Potential returns €100
    Westmeath v Kerry 20/1, €10. Potential returns €210
    Cavan v Kildare 10/1 (12/1 with B365, Lad), €10. Potential returns €110
    Laois v Monaghan 15/2, €10. Potential returns €85
    Tipp v Waterford 12/1 (14/1 with B365, BS), €10. Potential returns €130

    Old Bank -€235, New Bank -€355

    I assume you are taking all the prices from PP? There are some better odds out there for the draw in many of these matches (see above). Every little helps when it comes to long shots like these...


  • #13
    Formation
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 712 ✭✭✭Formation


    You will be dead and buried before you have a reasonable sample size. Can you refine the system or use 3 stake sizes for example depending on confidence and value.


  • #14
    KevIRL
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,693 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    MrJoeSoap wrote: »
    I assume you are taking all the prices from PP? There are some better odds out there for the draw in many of these matches (see above). Every little helps when it comes to long shots like these...
    Formation wrote: »
    You will be dead and buried before you have a reasonable sample size. Can you refine the system or use 3 stake sizes for example depending on confidence and value.

    Ya just taking it from PP. Dont have the time or inclination to shop around. Obv not doing it real money.

    @ Formation, ya I hear ya, but again just want to do it on pure rating. Perhaps next year a rating system might be a better way to test it though.

    1 draw in the bag already this weekend.

    Next year lads I may put both yer ideas here into practise!


  • #15
    KevIRL
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,693 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    After getting off to a great start last weekend, only the 1 draw was a disappointing outcome in the end

    Sat 21st June
    Tipp v Antrim, 15/2 €10. Potential returns €85
    Kerry v Tyrone 15/2, €10. Potential returns €85
    Limerick v Kildare 9/1, €10. Potential returns €100
    Leitrim v Laois 15/2, €10. Potential returns €85

    Sun 22nd June
    Donegal v Down 8/1, €10. Potential retunes €90
    Dublin v Meath 8/1, €10. Potential returns €90

    Old Bank -€355 New Bank -€330


  • #16
    KevIRL
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,693 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    Still going in the right direction albeit slowly thanks to Kildare and Limerick

    Sat 28th July
    Meath v Laois 15/2, €10. Potential returns €85
    Down v Tipp 15/2, €10. Potential returns €85
    Kildare v Sligo 8/1, €10. Potential returns €90
    Kerry v Clare 33/1, €10. Potential returns €340

    Sun 29th July
    Cork v Waterford 9/1, €10. Potential returns €100
    Kilkenny v Limerick 16/1, €10. Potential returns €170

    Old Bank -€330, New Bank - €290


  • #17
    MrJoeSoap
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,117 ✭✭✭✭MrJoeSoap


    KevIRL wrote: »
    Still going in the right direction albeit slowly thanks to Kildare and Limerick

    Sat 28th July
    Meath v Laois 15/2, €10. Potential returns €85
    Down v Tipp 15/2, €10. Potential returns €85
    Kildare v Sligo 8/1, €10. Potential returns €90
    Kerry v Clare 33/1, €10. Potential returns €340

    Sun 29th July
    Cork v Waterford 9/1, €10. Potential returns €100
    Kilkenny v Limerick 16/1, €10. Potential returns €170

    Old Bank -€330, New Bank - €290

    I've some (reasonably) interesting stats on hurling draws that I'll share at the end of the championship.


  • #18
    KevIRL
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,693 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    $hite forgot all about todays games, no draws but will add €20 to the negative total :(

    Sun 5th Aug
    Cork v Kildare 15/2, €10. Potential returns €85
    Kerry v Donegal 7/1, €10. Potential returns €80

    Old Bank - €290, New Bank -€330


  • #19
    KevIRL
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,693 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    Sun 12th Aug

    Cork v Galway, 10/1, €10. Potential returns €110

    Old Bank -€340, New Bank -€350


  • #20
    KevIRL
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,693 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    Sun 17th Aug

    Kilkenny v Tipp 10/1, €10. Potential returns €110

    Old Bank -€350, New Bank -€360


  • #21
    KevIRL
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,693 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    Sun 26th Aug

    Cork v Donegal 17/2, €10. Potential returns €95

    Old Bank -€360, New Bank -€370


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  • #22
    KevIRL
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,693 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    Sun 2nd Sept

    Dublin v Mayo 8/1, €10. Potential returns €90

    Old Bank -€370, New Bank -€380


  • #23
    KevIRL
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,693 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    Sun 7th Sept

    Kilkenny v Galway 12/1, €10. Potential returns €130

    Old Bank -€380, New Bank -€390


  • #24
    KevIRL
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,693 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    Sun 23rd Sept

    Donegal v Mayo 15/2, €10. Potential returns €85

    Old Bank -€390, New Bank -€270


  • #25
    MrJoeSoap
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,117 ✭✭✭✭MrJoeSoap


    KevIRL wrote: »
    Sun 7th Sept

    Kilkenny v Galway 12/1, €10. Potential returns €130

    Old Bank -€380, New Bank -€390

    Pity you hadn't doubled it with the minor match :)


  • #26
    KevIRL
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,693 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    Sun 30th Sept

    Kilkenny v Galway 11/1, €10. Potential returns €120

    Old Bank -€270, New Bank -€280


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