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Football and hurling championship draw's log

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  • 30-04-2011 8:41pm
    #1
    KevIRL
    Registered Users Posts: 39,516 ✭✭✭✭


    This is something I've meant to do before out of interest. A hell of a lot of GAA championship matches finish in draws, the cynics say this is often about ensuring another payday for the GAA with a replay bringing the crowds back for another day. This may be a small part, but I believe the over-riding reason is the sense of fair play and amatuer ethos that exists - refs are more likely to blow up when the scores are level, or allow a bit more time for one team to get another score so that everyone gets another chance.

    I remember reading about this a few years ago, and the bookies have gotten a bit wiser and made the odds skinnier. But am gonna give it a shot - the key is going for the draw in every game as some of the more unlikely draws will naturally yield bigger results.

    Week 1
    New York v Roscommon draw 11/1 - €10. Potential returns €120

    (bank -€10)


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    #2
    Sir Vival
    Registered Users Posts: 528 ✭✭✭Sir Vival


    Best of luck with the log. Are you using this log solely for betting on draws?


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    #3
    KevIRL
    Registered Users Posts: 39,516 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    Sir Vival wrote: »
    Best of luck with the log. Are you using this log solely for betting on draws?

    Yep just draws, just want somewhere handy to keep a record, will keep my hurling thoughts to the GAA betting thread


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    #4
    KevIRL
    Registered Users Posts: 39,516 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    Losing start as expected. I'm heading away for a week on Saturday so might not get on to post up games for 22nd, so will stick them all up now

    14th May
    Donegal v Antrim 15/2 €10, potential returns €85
    Laois v Antrim 10/1 €10, potential returns €110

    previous bank -€10, new bank -€30

    22nd May
    Laois v Longford 8/1 €10, potential returns €90
    Kildare v Wicklow 9/1 €10, potential returns €100
    Kerry v Tipperary 16/1 €10, potential returns €170
    Cork v Clare 20/1 €10, potential returns €210
    Derry v Fermanagh 10/1 €10, potential returns €110
    Sligo v Leitrim 10/1 €10, potential returns €110
    Carlow v Westmeath 10/1 €10, potential returns €110

    previous bank -€30, new bank -€100


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    #5
    KevIRL
    Registered Users Posts: 39,516 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    Urrrrgh really struggling with this, although Longford really should have squeezed out a draw against Laois at the weekend and I'd have almost been back to even.

    Onwards and Upwards (downwards?) we go!

    28th May
    Offaly v Wexford 15/2 €10, potential returns €85
    Armagh v Down 13/2 €10, potential returns €75
    29th May
    London v Mayo 25/1 €10, potential returns €260
    Dublin v Offaly 10/1 €10, potential returns €110
    Wexford v Antrim 11/1 €10, potential returns €120
    Tipp v Cork 10/1 €10, potential returns €110

    Old Bank -€100. New Bank -€160


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    #6
    KevIRL
    Registered Users Posts: 39,516 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    Thank you London.


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    #7
    KevIRL
    Registered Users Posts: 39,516 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    KevIRL wrote: »
    the key is going for the draw in every game as some of the more unlikely draws will naturally yield bigger results.

    Thankfully I listened to this, considered leaving out the London-Mayo game this weekend, but it came in at 25's!

    So 1 draw so far Mayo v London 25/1

    New Bank €100

    Saturday 4th June
    Limerick v Kerry 14/1 €10, potential returns €150
    Westmeath v Galway 28/1 €10, potential returns €290

    EDIT - forgot Sunday 5th June
    Kildare v Meath 8/1 €10, potential returns €90
    Cork v Waterford 28/1 €10, potential returns €290
    Tyrone v Monaghan 15/2 €10, potential returns €85
    Dublin v Laois 10/1 €10, potential returns €110

    Old Bank €100, New Bank €40


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    #8
    Sir Vival
    Registered Users Posts: 528 ✭✭✭Sir Vival


    Great call Kev, i personally thought you were mad for including that match in your bets. Not going to get out now while your a good bit up?


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    #9
    KevIRL
    Registered Users Posts: 39,516 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    Sir Vival wrote: »
    Great call Kev, i personally thought you were mad for including that match in your bets. Not going to get out now while your a good bit up?

    Gonna see it through to the season end, very surprised there hasnt been more draws already actually


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    #10
    KevIRL
    Registered Users Posts: 39,516 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    No joy this weekend, no close calls really even.

    Sat 11th June
    Wexford v Westmeath 15/2 €10, potential returns €85
    Wexford v Kilkenny 14/1 €10, potential returns €150

    Sun 12th June
    Leitrim v Roscommon 13/2 €10, potential returns €75
    Louth v Carlow 9/1 €10, potential returns €100
    Cavan v Donegal 15/2 €10, potential returns €85
    Waterford v Limerick 10/1 €10, potential returns €110

    Old Bank €40, New Bank -€20


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    #11
    KevIRL
    Registered Users Posts: 39,516 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    sigh another blank week. A couple of close calls though, although I am glad the Waterford-Limerick game didnt end in a draw!

    Sat 18th June
    Laois v Cork 22/1 €10, potential returns €230
    Antrim v Westmeath 12/1 €10, potential returns €130
    Galway v Dublin 10/1 €10, potential returns €110

    Sun 19th June
    Armagh v Derry 7/1 €10, potential returns €80
    Tipperary v Clare 14/1 €10, potental returns €150

    Old Bank -€20, New Bank -€70


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    #12
    jjll
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,200 ✭✭✭jjll


    armagh game big chance draw ulster board will want a game like this for another pay day and cork kerry footie semi is draw all day look at last 2 times they played in chamionship draws one of them went to 3 games if im not mistaken


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    #13
    KevIRL
    Registered Users Posts: 39,516 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    WTF one draw all season. Sort it out GAA!

    At least London are back this weekend :D

    Sat 25th June
    London v Fermanagh 9/1 €10, potential returns €100
    Antrim v Westmeath 15/2 €10, potential returns €85
    Clare v Down 14/1 €10, potential returns €150
    Cavan v Longford 15/2 €10, potential returns €85
    Laois v Tipperary 15/2 €10, potential returns €85
    Louth v Meath 15/2 €10, potential returns €85
    Offaly v Monaghan 15/2 €10, potential returns €85
    Wicklow v Sligo 15/2 €10, potential returns €85
    Cork v Offaly 14/1 €10, potential returns €150
    Antrim v Carlow 14/1 €10, potential returns €150

    Sun 26th June
    Mayo v Galway 7/1 €10, potential returns €80
    Wexford v Carlow 14/1 €10, potential returns €150
    Tyrone v Donegal 15/2 €10, potential returns €85
    Dublin v Kildare 8/1 €10, potential returns €90

    Old Bank -€70, New Bank -€210


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    #14
    AstonMartin
    Registered Users Posts: 1,313 ✭✭✭AstonMartin


    Surely you can refine this somehow. Bet games where you think the handicap is less than 5, the ref is known for draws or where the favourite has a couple of key offensive injuries. The bookies are too sharp to not have this long sussed. No point betting a draw in a cork game where the handicap is 12 for example.

    either way i will have a look. Maybe have 2 banks, one with all the games and a second with the ones you fancy to end in a draw at least 10% of the time?


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    #15
    KevIRL
    Registered Users Posts: 39,516 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    Fukk you Down and your injury time winning point!


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    #16
    KevIRL
    Registered Users Posts: 39,516 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    Beginning to think the gah saw this thread and instructed the refs to avoid giving draws! Been a good few close calls and single point wins, hard to credit that there's only been one draw this season so far.

    Somewhat ironic that I was at a thrilling drawn game in the Munster Minor hurling semi final last Saturday between Waterford and Limerick (Waterford won AET :D)

    Not so many games this week, so could be the best week for a bank balance in a while :rolleyes:

    Sat 2nd July
    Limerick v Wexford 10/1 €10, potential returns €110
    Galway v Clare 11/1 €10, potential returns 110

    Sun 3rd July
    Kerry v Cork 13/2 10, potential returns 75
    Dublin v Kilkenny 10/1, potential returns 110

    Old Bank -210, New Bank -250

    feckin euro sign stopped working half way through that post!:confused:


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    #17
    albert kidd
    Registered Users Posts: 628 ✭✭✭albert kidd


    some terrible luck so far kev.lack of draws has surprised me so far..surely a few to come!!


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    #18
    KevIRL
    Registered Users Posts: 39,516 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    sigh

    Here we go again

    Sat 7th July
    Limerick V Offaly 15/2 €10, potential returns €85
    Down v Leitrim 25/1 €10, potential returns €260
    Antrim v Carlow 11/1 €10, potential returns €120
    London v Waterford 8/1 €10, potential returns €90
    Laois v Kildare 15/2 €10, potential returns €85
    Longford v Tyrone 15/2 €10, potential returns €85
    Armagh v Wicklow 10/1 €10, potential returns €110
    Meath v Galway 15/2 €10, potential returns €85
    Galway v Cork 10/1 €10, potential returns €110
    Limerick v Antrim 22/1 €10, potential returns €230
    Dublin v Wexford 12/1 €10, potential returns €130
    Tipperary v Waterford €11/1 €10, potential returns €120

    Old Bank -€250, New Bank -€370


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    #19
    KevIRL
    Registered Users Posts: 39,516 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    2nd draw of the season courtesy of Armagh and Wicklow @ 10/1.

    Sat 16th July
    Limerick v Waterford 9/1 €10, potential returns €100
    Antrim v Down 9/1 €10, potential returns €100
    Meath v Kildare 7/1 €10, potential returns €80
    Wicklow v Armagh 15/2, potential returns €85

    Sun 17th July
    Roscommon v Mayo 15/2, potential returns €85
    Derry v Donegal 15/2, potential returns €85

    Old Bank -€370 New Bank -€320


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    #20
    KevIRL
    Registered Users Posts: 39,516 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    And back to firing blanks.

    Sat 23rd July
    Kildare v Derry 10/1 €10, potential returns €110
    Cork v Down 15/2 €10, potential returns €85
    Limerick v Wexford 15/2 €10, potential returns €85
    Tyrone v Armagh 15/2, potential returns €85

    Sun 24th July
    Limerick v Dublin 10/1 €10 potential returns €110
    Waterford v Galway 10/1 €10 potential returns €110

    Old Bank -€320 New Bank -€380


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    #21
    jacool
    Registered Users Posts: 3,838 ✭✭✭jacool


    I think its the tight fixture list that will discourage draws being blown up at levels. Look at the football now where one QF has been delayed because of the one draw. Ironically, the draw merchants Armagh are most likely to draw again!


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    #22
    KevIRL
    Registered Users Posts: 39,516 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    Thankfully this is almost over

    Sat 30th July
    Tyrone v Roscommon 11/1 €10, potential returns €120
    Kildare v Donegal 15/2 €10, potential returns €85

    Sun 31st July
    Limerick v Kerry 18/1 €10, potential returns €190
    Cork v Mayo 10/1, potential returns €110

    Old Bank -€380 New Bank -€420


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    #23
    KevIRL
    Registered Users Posts: 39,516 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    A 3rd draw of the season comes from the Kildare-Donegal match.

    Only 7 games left in the season now (exluding possible replays :)) so this is extremely unlikely to end anywhere near break even.

    Sat 6th August
    Tyrone v Dublin 8/1 €10, potential returns €95

    Sun 7th August
    Kilkenny v Waterford 18/1 €10, potential returns €190

    Old Bank -€420 New Bank -€355


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    #24
    AstonMartin
    Registered Users Posts: 1,313 ✭✭✭AstonMartin


    Could easily be variance but what makes you think there is value in those prices?


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    #25
    TheHopeful
    Registered Users Posts: 227 ✭✭TheHopeful


    Even thought there seems to have been a few less draws than usual this season I still reckon it's probably not worthwhile doing this sort of continuous bet with your normal bookmaker. For example, tomorrow you have 10 euro on a draw in the Kilkenny/Waterford game at 18/1, but lookin at the Betfair prices at the mo im fairly confident you'd get over 30/1 on there. Big difference.
    Edit: The draws available at 39/1 on betfair at the moment


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    #26
    KevIRL
    Registered Users Posts: 39,516 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    almost finished thank fook

    Sunday 14th Aug
    Dublin v Tipp 20/1 €10, potential returns €210

    Old Bank -€355 New Bank - €365


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    #27
    KevIRL
    Registered Users Posts: 39,516 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    3 more games barring replays, which I errm am hoping for!

    Sun 21st Aug
    Dublin v Donegal 15/2 €10, potential returns €85

    Old Bank -€365, New Bank -€375


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    #28
    KevIRL
    Registered Users Posts: 39,516 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    2 more games....

    Sun 5th Sept
    Kilkenny v Tipperary 11/1 €10, potential returns 120

    Old Bank -375, New Bank -385


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    #29
    KevIRL
    Registered Users Posts: 39,516 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    Last one

    Sun 18th Sept
    Dublin v Kerry 8/1 €10, potential returns €90

    Old Bank -€385, New Bank -€395


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