referendum on fiscal compact.

Atilathehun

So we are expected to vote yes to the fiscal compact. From farming point of view it would make sense.
On the other hand, the likely new French president says he will renegotiate the whole thing.
We have to vote end of May. He will come along afterwards, and get it changed, to benefit France and France alone.
I have decided, to vote no, as no farmer would buy a pig in a bag, to paraphrase an old saying.

johngalway

I don't know enough about it yet. Though it may be a reckless move if Ireland would not be able to gain access to funds should we need them in the future.

bbam

I have to agree that the idea of the French starting to give it a once over is potentially dangerous for the treaty..

However... I still think a no vote would be worse for us..

We're in a hell of a pickle and cutting ourselves off from Europe and help seems like a bad idea.. I think a yes vote is the best of a bad choice.. kinda like choosing between sour milk or blue-mould bread.

The devil is in the detail.. I'll need to see more information to be sure..

fodda

johngalway wrote: »

I don't know enough about it yet. Though it may be a reckless move if Ireland would not be able to gain access to funds should we need them in the future.

Do you really think there will be any in the future? Do you think they care anything about Ireland once they have your yes vote?

Look at Greece.

Justice for the individual

Atilathehun wrote: »

So we are expected to vote yes to the fiscal compact. From farming point of view it would make sense.
On the other hand, the likely new French president says he will renegotiate the whole thing.
We have to vote end of May. He will come along afterwards, and get it changed, to benefit France and France alone.
I have decided, to vote no, as no farmer would buy a pig in a bag, to paraphrase an old saying.

The Public Sector workers voting yes to this Referendum would be like turkeys voting for Christmas. When Coveney was asked if these fiscal compact measures were being pushed by Troika, he said "no, we will be making the decision ourselves". Therefore, turkeys voting for Christmas. The Irish people are pushed to the pins of their collars and simply cannot pay any more. This government has got to give the Irish people some breathing space, as constantly, we are being asked to pay more (with less) to atone for the overexposure of the banks. It is time now to show our opposition to any further cuts, and take a stand like the main irish unions, and vote NO in this referendum. The union leaders know that if this treaty is not rejected, further austerity (hardship) measures will be imposed on their members. If the worse comes to the worse and we are forced to abandon the euro, so what, we would be better off joining Britain in staying outside monetary union and taking up with sterling. What harm has it done Britain, and they are not threatened with any censures by the European Union. Can we be any worse off than we are now, living from day-to-day, with no future. The only argument the government is putting forward, is that if we vote no, we will not be able to obtain any further funds from the European Central Bank. If we vote yes, it will guarantee that thousands of workers will lose their jobs, and the whole economy will continue towards its collapse. Blackmail is not a reason to vote yes. The government appear to think that once we are able to borrow, that's o.k. but we will still have to pay it back. We are not getting a concession, as we will be further overexposed by our borrowings. And it was borrowing that got us into this trouble in the first place. We now have the opportunity to decide which road we want to follow.

bbam

Justice for the individual wrote: »

The Public Sector workers voting yes to this Referendum would be like turkeys voting for Christmas. When Coveney was asked if these fiscal compact measures were being pushed by Troika, he said "no, we will be making the decision ourselves". Therefore, turkeys voting for Christmas. The Irish people are pushed to the pins of their collars and simply cannot pay any more. This government has got to give the Irish people some breathing space, as constantly, we are being asked to pay more (with less) to atone for the overexposure of the banks. It is time now to show our opposition to any further cuts, and take a stand like the main irish unions, and vote NO in this referendum. The union leaders know that if this treaty is not rejected, further austerity (hardship) measures will be imposed on their members. If the worse comes to the worse and we are forced to abandon the euro, so what, we would be better off joining Britain in staying outside monetary union and taking up with sterling. What harm has it done Britain, and they are not threatened with any censures by the European Union. Can we be any worse off than we are now, living from day-to-day, with no future. The only argument the government is putting forward, is that if we vote no, we will not be able to obtain any further funds from the European Central Bank. If we vote yes, it will guarantee that thousands of workers will lose their jobs, and the whole economy will continue towards its collapse. Blackmail is not a reason to vote yes. The government appear to think that once we are able to borrow, that's o.k. but we will still have to pay it back. We are not getting a concession, as we will be further overexposed by our borrowings. And it was borrowing that got us into this trouble in the first place. We now have the opportunity to decide which road we want to follow.

Most of us have not seen the detail in the treaty so it's hard to make a call at the moment...

A no vote will be the start of a split between ourselves and the EU..
There is no doubt in my mind that they will be only too glad of an opportunity to cut off any access to further funding should ( rather when) we need it, a no vote will make that easy..

Given our current financial situation we cannot manage in the short/medium term while we get our affairs in order...

I've seen no hard numbers from the NO side on where money will be raised to run the country during the time we get our house in order.. Plain and simple we just wouldn't have he money to run Hospitals, prisons and general security.. Do people seriously think that council workers/guards/doctors/nurses/teachers are going to turn up for work when there is little or no money to pay them ?? 400,000 people on social welfare getting no payments?? Seriously folks, think about it... Most of the cash currently used to run the country is coming in from Europe, without that things would grind to a halt... Like it or not, it's a fact...

Saying that Britain have gone it alone therefore we can too is nonsense, we just don't have the domestic economy to manage nor are we trading at a level like GB to be recognised.. We'd simply be ignored and left to get on with poverty in our new 3rd world country.

There is no doubt we are in for hard times... a decade at least.. But plunging the country back into the dark ages just couldn't be the answer..

People are having hard times and little light ahead... but spouting popularist nonsense telling them to "stick it to the government" doesn't make sense.

johngalway

fodda wrote: »

Do you really think there will be any in the future? Do you think they care anything about Ireland once they have your yes vote?

Look at Greece.

Any what? Need for money? Need to dig us out of a hole? Anything is possible. All these "bubbles" get repeated over and over all over the world.

If/when China's one goes pop, run for cover.

We're not Greece, I've never subscribed to that theory.

5live

Atilathehun wrote: »

So we are expected to vote yes to the fiscal compact. From farming point of view it would make sense.
On the other hand, the likely new French president says he will renegotiate the whole thing.
We have to vote end of May. He will come along afterwards, and get it changed, to benefit France and France alone.
I have decided, to vote no, as no farmer would buy a pig in a bag, to paraphrase an old saying.

We are stuck between a rock and a hard place on this. The whole idea of balanced budgets and running a budget surplus is definately something we will have to do. A proper surplus that is, not the structural deficit type we ran for years under the last 2 administrations.

But when/if we manage to get to a 3% budget deficit in the next 2 years, our debt levels will be over 120% and we will still have to borrow over 2 billion a year to run the country and the treaty gives us 20 years to get to a 60% debt level. This would entail running a budget surplus of 3% for 20 years on average. I just cannot see the level of growth needed in the economy to sustain that kind of adjustment, and thats even before people start to question another 20 years of hairshirt budgets.

We are in the euro and they cannot throw us out. We nationalised 31 billion euro of anglo debt to keep the ECB from imploding and in return the ECB loaded us with penal interest rates and repayment terms and make us sit through lectures about how we need to repay all the debt(31 billion of theirs too:mad:) and pat us on the head like an obedient pup(while countries who do this lecturing fail to follow their own advice ie Holland,France). If we default then the euro will implode so they cannot let us fail.

I will be voting no unless the ECB take back their 31 billion of debt(both lender and borrower have to take a hit so the lenders, german landesbankes and french banks, have to suffer too, thats economics). The fiscal compact has very little i would fear except the timescale for reducing our debt levels, which is just not going to be possible unless our debt levels are reduced.

I doubt it will be rejected but 6 weeks is an awful long time in politics

theaceofspies

Might consider voting yes if they would fuilfill the promise of the last Treaty... Lisbon for jobs!!!!!!!!!!!:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D
Shower of jokers.

Dozer1

Going voting no, this shower are proving themselves to be equally as bad as the last, no real public sector reform and raising more and more taxes. As usual even if we do vote no we'll be told to vote yes later.

For once it might be nice if the little guy tried to stand up for ourselves for a change. I know the country needs money but being expected to pay back the Anglo debt while the health service and other services go to SH*T isn't working either

battle_hardend

vote NO

it wont change a thing regarding our future in europe and will send a message to germany that they cannot dictate entirely , several countries of late have made it clear that they are unhappy with the way the european project is moving , holland , france looks like its going to boot out sarkozy and the likes of finland has an opposition which is extremley critical of things , we wont be booted out as our banks collapsing would greatly effect the large european banks who lent to anglo etc , we need to start being more troublesome , being humble and taking our medicine has got us nowhere

btw , i realise that even thier was no bank bailout , cuts would be needed , spending only got to where it was due to the property bubble and the taxes which stemed from it

fodda

johngalway wrote: »

We're not Greece, I've never subscribed to that theory.

Do you think we will be treated any different than Greece when they have their yes vote?

I wonder if Greece were in the same boat, which way would they vote?

Farmer Pudsey

Vote No

It is time we stood up to the Franco/German (merkozey) allaince. I cannot see any light at the end of the tunnell. I agree we have to balance the budget however after four years of austerity there is no end in sight. When we started in 2008 we were told the heavy lifting would be done by growth in 2012/2013, In 2010 we were told growth in 2014/2015 now they are talking 2018-2020.
We will not have to leave the EU if we vote down the Fiscal Treaty. Even if we do vote No with the French and German elections over the next eighteen months I cannot see any progress. I cannot see the government being willing to cut Welfare, Health Spending and public pay enough to get economy started so it is 'death by a thousand cuts'
Even if we had to leave the euro would it be the end of the world especially for farming. As it is I cannot see the euro surviving as I cannot see the Spanish and Italians taking the cuts we have. the Italians always used inflation to solve their national debt problems. Unless the Germans allow the ECB print money and let a little inflation solve some of the problem and allow growth back into the EU I cannot see the Euro being here in 2 years time.
At present a lot of workers have just enought money to cover their spending at present if the government have to take another 1000-1500 euro's out of the average family income over the next three years I cannot see these people coping

TheBody

I'm currently in the vote no camp. I we vote no, and need to get more money, the EU of IMF are bound to give it to us anyay (from somewhere). The alternative is that we default and then all the German banks that lent us all the money may go under and/or possibly put the euro in doubt. I just don't think they will let that happen.

KCTK

Originally I was in the Yes camp but the more I actually consider this the more I am inclined to change to No. The only reason I see been thrown around for Yes is we won't be able to access these new ESM funds when we cant return to the market in 2014. Maybe we will be alot better off not being able to access them and just deal with the IMF directly (that is what the IMF is there for, to lend to countries who cant access funds anyplace else), least we forget that in the current bailout our "friends" in Europe were originally charging us nearly 6% on funds while the big bad IMF were actually charging us a lower rate on their part of the package.

Also all we hear from the EU (Merkel and Rehn) is cut cut cut and pay back all your Bank debt (bank debt is not the main cause of our current problems btw), while the IMF are actually out there saying that the growth side of things must also be looked at along with cuts and relief must be given on these Anglo Promissory notes.

Another thing is what is this treaty actually going to do about solving the crisis, I believe absolutely nothing because the markets (traders in Govt bonds etc) are not stupid and know that this is just a fudge by the EU as usual. The Maastricht treaty already set a deficit limit of 3% but who took any notice of that? Ignored by even the Germans a few years back when it suited them!!

Tora Bora

KCTK wrote: »

Originally I was in the Yes camp but the more I actually consider this the more I am inclined to change to No. The only reason I see been thrown around for Yes is we won't be able to access these new ESM funds when we cant return to the market in 2014. Maybe we will be alot better off not being able to access them and just deal with the IMF directly (that is what the IMF is there for, to lend to countries who cant access funds anyplace else), least we forget that in the current bailout our "friends" in Europe were originally charging us nearly 6% on funds while the big bad IMF were actually charging us a lower rate on their part of the package.

Also all we hear from the EU (Merkel and Rehn) is cut cut cut and pay back all your Bank debt (bank debt is not the main cause of our current problems btw), while the IMF are actually out there saying that the growth side of things must also be looked at along with cuts and relief must be given on these Anglo Promissory notes.

Another thing is what is this treaty actually going to do about solving the crisis, I believe absolutely nothing because the markets (traders in Govt bonds etc) are not stupid and know that this is just a fudge by the EU as usual. The Maastricht treaty already set a deficit limit of 3% but who took any notice of that? Ignored by even the Germans a few years back when it suited them!!

My position is exactly the same as yours. Was in yes camp, and have always voted in favour of all the EU treaty changes to date.
However, I no longer believe, that our interests are best served by being ultra pro EU, or by being top of the class at meeting all the austerity rules.

It's time we caused a bit of trouble in Europe. It's time we grew up a bit, and lashed out with full force at the school yard bullies (Merkel and Sarvrazyhorse). Remember the school bully ........... always seemed to get away with it, till one day, the quiet lad, who took the sh1t for one day too many, suddenly exploded .......... ..... bullyboy became a tame runt for ever more:cool:
Well, we have taken enough. Fcku them:P

johngalway

fodda wrote: »

Do you think we will be treated any different than Greece when they have their yes vote?

I wonder if Greece were in the same boat, which way would they vote?

Comparisons to Greece aren't relevant until we lie on an astronomical scale about our finances then fail to follow the plan to get us out of the sh1t.

Tora Bora

johngalway wrote: »

Comparisons to Greece aren't relevant until we lie on an astronomical scale about our finances then fail to follow the plan to get us out of the sh1t.

John, speaking about lies ................ our past government lied, and lied, and lied, and lied right throughout the crisis and the lead up to it, and for that matter for the past 15 years.
Some of them got hauled before planning corruption tribunals, and performed to type .......... lied in the front door and out the side door.

When it comes to official corruption, lies, misinformation, mismanagement, cover ups, nepotism, .................. hey, we don't need to be looking down our noses at Greece

johngalway

Tora Bora wrote: »

John, speaking about lies ................ our past government lied, and lied, and lied, and lied right throughout the crisis and the lead up to it, and for that matter for the past 15 years.
Some of them got hauled before planning corruption tribunals, and performed to type .......... lied in the front door and out the side door.

When it comes to official corruption, lies, misinformation, mismanagement, cover ups, nepotism, .................. hey, we don't need to be looking down our noses at Greece

Yes, they lied, to us. Not to get away from the issue my view on the past Govt was more institutionalised incompetence than anything else.

The Greeks lied about their national finances to the EU. Look it up.

- I'll save you the bother:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2011/09/12/greece-was-lying-about-its-budget-numbers/

That's an entirely different kettle of fish.

Our bubble burst for a number of reasons. But the Greeks are in the situation they're in through deception.

And I'm not looking down my nose at anyone, I'm stating a fact.

5live

johngalway wrote: »

Yes, they lied, to us. Not to get away from the issue my view on the past Govt was more institutionalised incompetence than anything else.

The Greeks lied about their national finances to the EU. Look it up.

- I'll save you the bother:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2011/09/12/greece-was-lying-about-its-budget-numbers/

That's an entirely different kettle of fish.

Our bubble burst for a number of reasons. But the Greeks are in the situation they're in through deception.

And I'm not looking down my nose at anyone, I'm stating a fact.

Not even a little bit?;)

johngalway

5live wrote: »

Not even a little bit?;)

No, my point was that we're not Greece. I was not insulting Greece, their Govt lied about their state finances, then didn't work to their plan, that's a fact. Where's the problem with what I said?

We didn't lie, we said we were up to our necks in **** and we were/are. A plan was brought together and we're working at it.

Difference. We are not Greece.

docmartin

Does anyone on here know what line the IFA are taking on the Treaty?
I firmly believe its a catch 22 situation and may just vote yes to get it over and done with rather than going through it all a second time,

But If the IFA were campaigning for a no vote, I'd be following them, as ultimately, they should be advising what's best for Irish Farming

BeeDI

docmartin wrote: »

Does anyone on here know what line the IFA are taking on the Treaty?
I firmly believe its a catch 22 situation and may just vote yes to get it over and done with rather than going through it all a second time,

But If the IFA were campaigning for a no vote, I'd be following them, as ultimately, they should be advising what's best for Irish Farming

IFA advise what's best for "some" farmers!! BIG farmers!! Wouldn't take a blind bit of notice at what they have to say.

grumpyfarmer

Would love to vote no just to give that shower in government a slap in the face, (wrong reason i know but...) but then when you look at the shower campaigning for a no vote, sinn fein socialists, communists, trade unions, shadey business men... what have any of them to offer farming... so at the end of the day i might just vote "maybe"

johngalway

No surprise but I am voting yes.

sh1tstirrer

docmartin wrote: »

Does anyone on here know what line the IFA are taking on the Treaty?
I firmly believe its a catch 22 situation and may just vote yes to get it over and done with rather than going through it all a second time,

But If the IFA were campaigning for a no vote, I'd be following them, as ultimately, they should be advising what's best for Irish Farming

You will vote yes so that you won't have to vote a second time.
Now there's a valid reason to vote yes.

Justice for the individual

At the present, the farmers are doing well, top prices for cattle etc. so they are not sharing in the pain. Farmers are self-employed and submit their own taxes, so they can get allowances for expenses, purchase of farm machinery, losses, etc, and may not be getting hit as hard as the general wage earner.

grumpyfarmer

Justice for the individual wrote: »

At the present, the farmers are doing well, top prices for cattle etc. so they are not sharing in the pain. Farmers are self-employed and submit their own taxes, so they can get allowances for expenses, purchase of farm machinery, losses, etc, and may not be getting hit as hard as the general wage earner.

Haha typical outsider view of farming... beef prices might be good now but could be slashed any time, not in our control. sheep prices are falling milk prices are falling... Costs have rocketed and tend never to fall in relation to output... and guess what... us rich farmers have the lowest income levels of any sector in the country just ask the CSO

BeeDI

SOME, farmers not going to be led by the nose this time out! Thank God! http://www.independent.ie/farming/news-features/farm-bodies-challenged-by-new-antitreaty-group-3108915.html

Farm bodies challenged by new anti-treaty group



A new group called Farmers Say No has challenged the main farm bodies to defend their pro-treaty stance in the upcoming referendum.
"I don't know why the IFA and the ICMSA are so blindly following the Government's line on this issue," said former IFA county chairman and ex-ASA president David Thompson.
The Limerick man is one of a number of farmers who have banded together to campaign for a No vote in the referendum on the EU's fiscal treaty.
"The Government is trying to frighten us into a Yes vote. It's the same as Lisbon all over again," said Mr Thompson.
"I believe that this new bail-out fund that we're being promised simply doesn't exist until this treaty is passed. But if austerity continues, not only will people buy less of our meat and dairy, but the CAP budget will also become a target for cuts."
Macra na Feirme president Alan Jagoe hit back at the group, stating that he was "extremely disappointed with the negative view and appalled by their claims of lack of democracy within his organisation."
"My national council extensively discussed and endorsed a Yes vote to help strengthen the adherence to balanced eurozone budgets," he said.
- Darragh McCullough

Justice for the individual

BeeDI wrote: »

SOME, farmers not going to be led by the nose this time out! Thank God! http://www.independent.ie/farming/news-features/farm-bodies-challenged-by-new-antitreaty-group-3108915.html

Farm bodies challenged by new anti-treaty group



A new group called Farmers Say No has challenged the main farm bodies to defend their pro-treaty stance in the upcoming referendum.
"I don't know why the IFA and the ICMSA are so blindly following the Government's line on this issue," said former IFA county chairman and ex-ASA president David Thompson.
The Limerick man is one of a number of farmers who have banded together to campaign for a No vote in the referendum on the EU's fiscal treaty.
"The Government is trying to frighten us into a Yes vote. It's the same as Lisbon all over again," said Mr Thompson.
"I believe that this new bail-out fund that we're being promised simply doesn't exist until this treaty is passed. But if austerity continues, not only will people buy less of our meat and dairy, but the CAP budget will also become a target for cuts."
Macra na Feirme president Alan Jagoe hit back at the group, stating that he was "extremely disappointed with the negative view and appalled by their claims of lack of democracy within his organisation."
"My national council extensively discussed and endorsed a Yes vote to help strengthen the adherence to balanced eurozone budgets," he said.
- Darragh McCullough

According to Teagasc (today), farm income on dairy products rose by 32% in 2011 so this may be why ICMSA have advised their members to vote yes. However, Teasgasc also predicted a reduction in this figure for the coming year.
This may be reflected by the massive growth in the unemployment figures as less money is available for the purchase of dairy products. Therefore, if follows that the SME sector must be ACTIVELY supported and targeted by government agencies through funding their activities back into a growth situation. At present, because of a lack of assistance and encouragement by the government agencies, the SME sector is in stagnation. Through growing the SME's. people can be taken off the live register and hope re-ignited.

fionnan the yawn

if the guys who are doing the negotitating on your behalf are not up to the job then you do it yourself and thats why you have a vote in a democracy to send a message to your representatives to continue on as is or to change direction, So if you think that the current plan is working Vote Yes but if you think that nothing has changed or improved by this course of action then Vote No :rolleyes:
So here goes, are they the negotiators doing a good job? Uummh,In my opinion NO they are not
Has it been labours way or frankfurts way.`well I think its going to be Frankfurts way and some pepper spray to help it go down a little quicker.If you think that you can do Eamons job better than he has done so far
then Vote No.
And if you believe that the guy coming to inspect your septic tank or water meter or your homestead / farmyard is over paid for his economic contribution to the nations wealth
Vote No