Liège-Bastogne-Liège (Sunday April 22nd); warning, contains unmasked spoilers

dastardly00

Live on British Eurosport on Sunday from 2pm

Who's going to win?! There is serious pressure on the shoulders of Gilbert. He was top dog in Ardennes last year but hasn't won here this year. Although coming third in La Flèche Wallonne on Wednesday shows that he is coming into some form. Joaquim Rodríguez looked seriously impressive when he won La Flèche Wallonne and certainly is a favourite to win here. The two Schleck brothers will be there or there abouts but they mightn't have the firepower to win if it comes down to a group sprint. Some of the other contenders are Sánchez, Cunego, Valverde and Milan-San Remo winner Simon Gerrans, all of whom skipped La Flèche Wallonne so they should be pretty fresh. The weather forecast is for light rain.

I reckon Gilbert will come good and take the win. And hopefully Dan Martin won't be too far away from the podium
A Few Facts:

• Liège-Bastogne-Liège (LBL) is the last of the Ardennes Spring Classics and is the 4th Monument race of the year
• LBL 257.5km long and is quite a hilly classic with 11 climbs including Côte de Saint-Roch (0.8km at 12%), Côte de Stockeu (1.1km at 10.5%), and Côte de Saint-Nicolas just a few kilometers before the finish (1km at 11.1%)
• Recent winners: 2011 Philippe Gilbert (BEL) Omega Pharma-Lotto; 2010 Alexandre Vinokourov (KAZ) Astana; 2009 Andy Schleck (LUX) Saxo Bank; 2008 Alejandro Valverde (ESP) Caisse D’epargne; 2007 Danilo Di Luca (ITA) Liquigas; 2006 Alejandro Valverde (ESP) Caisse D’epargne-Illes Balears
• Sean Kelly won LBL in '84 and '89

Route & Profile:





Start List:Link

Odds: Philippe Gilbert 11/4; Damiano Cunego 10/1; Joaquin Rodriguez 11/1; Fränk Schleck 11/1; Samuel Sánchez 12/1; Andy Schleck 14/1; Alejandro Valverde 16/1. Others: Dan Martin 22/1; Nicolas Roche 80/1.
(Odds from Paddy Power)

flying11

Damiano Cunego

i would like to see voeckler do it. after his admirable attempts to keep the yellow jersey lasy july i have become a big fan of his. he is in good form too after winning a race last week.
i will also be cheering on the 2 irish lads of course!

ednwireland

Frank Schleck

gilbert for me

ROK ON

Jelle Vandenert

He was Gilberts right hand man on the final 5pm last year for much of the hilly classics. This year he has been up there in his own right.

But I would love to see Dan Martin win.

pantani

Jurgen Van Den Broeck

think after martin's 6th in fleche wallone on wednesday he looks in good shape,where as roche's performance in trentino the last couple of days make me wonder what his goals for the year are.

TheBlaaMan

It would be nice to see Dan Martin in a protected role, but it doesnt seem likely?

With 25 teams of 10 each, 250 is a huge field, albeit probably only 20 of those are in with any sort of a chance of winning.

ROK ON

TheBlaaMan wrote: »

It would be nice to see Dan Martin in a protected role, but it doesnt seem likely?

He is completely delusional. Hesjay is a strong rider and capable of doing well in a grand tour, but has he ever shown any evidence of having an explosive kick in a steep uphill sprint. I see him as more of a diesel engine tbh.

The tactics of Garmin are often baffling, and to be frank there is usually a bias shown to distinctly average North American riders. In many other teams, the likes of Hesjay, Vendevelde and Zabriski would struggle to get in the main team let alone be protected riders.

The future of this team are Vanmarcke and Martin, almost anyone else is an also ran.

dave_o_brien

Daniel Martin

ROK ON wrote: »

The future of this team are Vanmarcke and Martin, almost anyone else is an also ran.

For the classics or in general?

I'd agree about their bias, they seem to have more determination to have a North American winner than a winner at all. Sky and Green Edge have a clear remit to develop riders from a particular nationality, but have a better approach in terms of getting a winner from a different country supported by home grown talent and actually getting home grown talent capable of winning. Garmin just don't seem to have that.

Still, Cunego looked strong in Trentino, I reckon he'll give this a good go.

ROK ON

dave_o_brien wrote: »

For the classics or in general?


Still, Cunego looked strong in Trentino, I reckon he'll give this a good go.

Both. I dont see a real Grand Tour player at Garmin. Hesjay has always been competitive in Ardennes week, but has lacked the kick to finish it off. Martin has that kick.

dave_o_brien

Daniel Martin

ROK ON wrote: »

Both. I dont see a real Grand Tour player at Garmin. Hesjay has always been competitive in Ardennes week, but has lacked the kick to finish it off. Martin has that kick.

True enough. I think that Garmin don't have a Tour man of any real standing at the moment, Dan included unfortunately. He could do well in the other GT's, and in shorter stage races (as he proved in Poland), but the Tour seems to be where they'd back someone like Vandevelde, and he can't compete with the likes of Evans and Wiggins with that much tt'ing.

TheBlaaMan

Dan Martin interviewed at team presentation, Saturday

http://bcove.me/7su5kh7r

Also, for those curious about prize money:
Today’s winner will take home 20,000 euros. Second place will be worth 10,000 euros. And the third man on the podium gets 5,000 euros.


and be forever commemerated in the cycling history books!

g0g

This is on already for anyone looking to watch. UPC channel 423 = British Eurosport (normally that's on 425 I thought).

sy

Andy Schleck

Franck Schleck looked impressive on Wednesday. I think he might get away before the finish and win this one. Otherwise a battle between the uphill favourites Gilbert and Rodriguez Cunego Nibali Valverde Sanchez and hopefully Dan the Man!

Lusk Doyle

g0g wrote: »

This is on already for anyone looking to watch. UPC channel 423 = British Eurosport (normally that's on 425 I thought).

425 is Eurosport Deux.

dastardly00

Frank Schleck

It's looking like it's going to come down to the last couple of climbs.
All the main contenders are in the Gilbert group apart from Valverde and Frank Schleck.

mcgratheoin

Jurgen Van Den Broeck

Dan is up there with the group anyway - would love to see him make a move on the last climb

mcgratheoin

Jurgen Van Den Broeck

dan having a go - Go on ya good thing!!

dastardly00

Frank Schleck

Nibali has a nice 40 second gap but there is some calibre of riders chasing him.

Morrisseeee

Took a long time to get going but the finish looks exciting now !

mcgratheoin

Jurgen Van Den Broeck

gilbert gone... (forgot that i didn't need spoilers...)

mcgratheoin

Jurgen Van Den Broeck

that 45 second gap is back to gilbert's group - it's only 25 to the nearest chaser...

dastardly00

Frank Schleck

Come on Dan!!!

mcgratheoin

Jurgen Van Den Broeck

commentator's curse on Dan - talking about a podium spot for him...

mcgratheoin

Jurgen Van Den Broeck

Dan back in group of chasers now

dastardly00

Frank Schleck

Looks like Nibali is knackered and Iglinskiy is going to catch him.

mcgratheoin

Jurgen Van Den Broeck

great finish...

mcgratheoin

Jurgen Van Den Broeck

dan just in second half of split group

mcgratheoin

Jurgen Van Den Broeck

5th for Dan (i think) - good result

Morrisseeee

Feel so sorry for Nibali, so close & yet so far

dastardly00

Frank Schleck

1. Iglinskiy
2. Nibali
3. Gasparroto
4. Voecklar
5. Martin

The tax man

@ROK ON Can you PM me next weeks Lotto numbers please.:D

Lusk Doyle

dastardly00 wrote: »

1. Iglinskiy
2. Nibali
3. Gasparroto
4. Voecklar
5. Martin

I had Martin down with an each way bet to place 1 - 4. Same time as third and fourth so hopefully I win my €1,000.00!!!

Inquitus

Lusk Doyle wrote: »

I had Martin down with an each way bet to place 1 - 4. Same time as third and fourth so hopefully I win my €1,000.00!!!

No chance Lusk Doyle I am afraid, it's not golf

Not a Nibali fan, but you really have to feel for him, great break, just ran out of legs.

dastardly00

Frank Schleck

Lusk Doyle wrote: »

I had Martin down with an each way bet to place 1 - 4. Same time as third and fourth so hopefully I win my €1,000.00!!!

how much did you have on him in order to win €1,000 with an each-way bet?? :eek:

Lusk Doyle

dastardly00 wrote: »

Lusk Doyle wrote: »

I had Martin down with an each way bet to place 1 - 4. Same time as third and fourth so hopefully I win my €1,000.00!!!

how much did you have on him in order to win €1,000 with an each-way bet?? :eek:

€20 each way at 40:1.

Lusk Doyle

Inquitus wrote: »

Lusk Doyle wrote: »

I had Martin down with an each way bet to place 1 - 4. Same time as third and fourth so hopefully I win my €1,000.00!!!

No chance Lusk Doyle I am afraid, it's not golf

Awh, say it ain't so!

themandan6611

Lusk Doyle wrote: »

€20 each way at 40:1.

if its each way you'd get 200 for the place, no win, if its 1-4 then i'm afraid i think you'll miss the place :mad:

sy

Andy Schleck

Great finish, felt sorry for Nibali as he made great effort to win the race. That last climb is a killer but fair play to Iglinsky.

We now know that Dan Martin has the ability to win one or all of the following classics over the next 5 years

Lombardia
Fleche Wallonne
Liege Bastogne Liege

Happy days ahead, fingers crossed

You could probably add the San Sebastian Classic to that list too

Lusk Doyle

Sorry, but until he actually does win one or is in a close scuffle for the win we don't know that he has the ability to win one. Fifth at 36 seconds down is not evidence of winning ability.

Raam

Lusk Doyle wrote: »

Sorry, but until he actually does win one or is in a close scuffle for the win we don't know that he has the ability to win one. Fifth at 36 seconds down is not evidence of winning ability.

It means a lot!

Lusk Doyle

Raam wrote: »

Lusk Doyle wrote: »

Sorry, but until he actually does win one or is in a close scuffle for the win we don't know that he has the ability to win one. Fifth at 36 seconds down is not evidence of winning ability.

It means a lot!

I disagree and challenge you to a duel!

happytramp

Frank Schleck

Lusk Doyle wrote: »

Fifth at 36 seconds down is not evidence of winning ability.

How about 2nd at Lombardia last year? 8sec down and beating Rodriguez and Basso in the sprint. Is that good enough for you?

Raam

Tour of Poland and Catalunya performances in recent years also.

Lusk Doyle

Yes. That, however, is not what sy said in his post. Read it again. There was no mention, implied or expressed to other results.

I happen to agree that he has it in him which is why I placed a bet but the statement said what it said and didn't say what it didn't. Also, I'm pedantic!

ROK ON

I got to cycle with Sean Kelly last year and before at an event. He is chatty. I asked what was his opinion of Martin. Hs answer was that if he keeps progressing as is then LBL, FW or GdiL victory is only a matter of time. This was before his Vuelta stage win or 2nd at Lombardia.

Given the evidence we have, for a classic that ends with a steep finish there are about 7 - 9 riders that are consistently capable of placing. Martin is one of those.

Pleas bare in mind that it took a few platings and victories for both Sean Kelly & Phillippe Gilbert prior to winning one day classics becoming a regular event.

FWIW I think his main competitors are Sanchez, JRod, Gilbert, Nibali, Valverde, Vandenaert, Van de Broeck, Gasparotto, Sagan.
I would have included Evans and Vino, but Evans has other priorities and Vino is too old. On his day Gesink should also be considered in that field.

What Martin has in spades is panache. He is not shy. He backs himself and attacks.

One of my favourite races was a few years back when Martin and Hoogerland and Bozic spent all day attacking in the Tour of Britain. Then Martin did the same the following day. In a sport where plenty of people sit in and wait for their opponents to do something and react, it is fantastic to see proactive riders. It's even better that he represents Ireland. I bet British Cycling is kicking themselves. To think the let him get away. Beggars belief.

Joxer_S

ROK ON wrote: »

I got to cycle with Sean Kelly last year and before at an event. He is chatty. I asked what was his opinion of Martin. Hs answer was that if he keeps progressing as is then LBL, FW or GdiL victory is only a matter of time. This was before his Vuelta stage win or 2nd at Lombardia.

I was chatting to Sean Kelly just after the Giro Lombardia last year, when he down at the Castlecomer Challenge. I said wasn't to him wasn't it a great result for Dan Martin yesterday coming second, to which he responded, "Yes but second place is second place". I couldn't help but laugh

sy

Andy Schleck

Lusk Doyle wrote: »

Sorry, but until he actually does win one or is in a close scuffle for the win we don't know that he has the ability to win one. Fifth at 36 seconds down is not evidence of winning ability.

As you know most of these prestigious classics are won by guys 26+ years old. I think Kelly was 27 when he won Lombardia his first classic. Experience plays big part, knowing the parcours and developing that ability to last 260 kms takes years of hard work apart from the necessary talent. Yes there are always exceptions but they are quite rare(Sagan might be next exception) so I base my prediction that he will have that experience, the kms in the legs and above the full support of a team. (He wasn't team leader for either of the races last week.) I think he has shown he has the talent so with time over next 5 hears he has great chance of winning at least one of them. Time will tell ;-)

Raam

Lusk Doyle wrote: »

Yes. That, however, is not what sy said in his post. Read it again. There was no mention, implied or expressed to other results.

I happen to agree that he has it in him which is why I placed a bet but the statement said what it said and didn't say what it didn't. Also, I'm pedantic!

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.

Lusk Doyle

Raam wrote: »

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.

That's a REALLY useful answer!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggXmKPMaHMo

happytramp

Frank Schleck

Everyone here, the pundits, the pro's, his DS, the ex legends... they all reckon he's got a great chance of going on to win a big classic.

Come on Lusk, just admit it. He's awesome.

Blackrockcomet

ROK ON wrote: »

I got to cycle with Sean Kelly last year and before at an event. He is chatty. I asked what was his opinion of Martin. Hs answer was that if he keeps progressing as is then LBL, FW or GdiL victory is only a matter of time. This was before his Vuelta stage win or 2nd at Lombardia.

Given the evidence we have, for a classic that ends with a steep finish there are about 7 - 9 riders that are consistently capable of placing. Martin is one of those.

Pleas bare in mind that it took a few platings and victories for both Sean Kelly & Phillippe Gilbert prior to winning one day classics becoming a regular event.

FWIW I think his main competitors are Sanchez, JRod, Gilbert, Nibali, Valverde, Vandenaert, Van de Broeck, Gasparotto, Sagan.
I would have included Evans and Vino, but Evans has other priorities and Vino is too old. On his day Gesink should also be considered in that field.

What Martin has in spades is panache. He is not shy. He backs himself and attacks.

One of my favourite races was a few years back when Martin and Hoogerland and Bozic spent all day attacking in the Tour of Britain. Then Martin did the same the following day. In a sport where plenty of people sit in and wait for their opponents to do something and react, it is fantastic to see proactive riders. It's even better that he represents Ireland. I bet British Cycling is kicking themselves. To think the let him get away. Beggars belief.

What is the background to Martin declaring for Ireland? I agree with the attacking mentality and giving it a go. That applies to all our pros. Hopefully Deignan does the same on the Tour of Turkey