Australian Economy Thread

Peregrinus

mandrake04 wrote: »

What's the average house price in a good area?

Buy or rent?

Median price to buy a three-bedroomed house for the city as a whole: $564,990. More than that, obviously, in a "good area", depending on what you consider a good area to be, and more than that if you want more than three bedrooms.

Median rent for a three-bedroomed house; $518/week.

mandrake04

Peregrinus wrote: »

Buy or rent?

Median price to buy a three-bedroomed house for the city as a whole: $564,990. More than that, obviously, in a "good area", depending on what you consider a good area to be, and more than that if you want more than three bedrooms.

Median rent for a three-bedroomed house; $518/week.

Would ideally be my next 10 year plan of 4BR on a good block with a pool?

Had a work opportunity down there a few months ago, basically one of engineers left down there and I could have moved with the same income as I'm getting in Sydney.

Wife didn't fancy it tho, I just sold my house that I bought for $420K in 2010 for $713k. Currently living in my inlaws holiday home on McMasters beach on the central coast, rent free and by the beach nearly perfect except the 1.5+ commute.

Had a thought of looking something that I could buy outright for 1/2 mil with a good lifestyle which doesn't sound possible even there.

catbear

mandrake04 wrote: »

Had a thought of looking something that I could buy outright for 1/2 mil with a good lifestyle which doesn't sound possible even there.

Or you could sit out the current property euphoria and buy where you want later!

mandrake04

catbear wrote: »

Or you could sit out the current property euphoria and buy where you want later!

That's what I'm doing, I sold now because my gut is telling me that we are at the top of the cycle so take the money and run. I think there will be a plateau and then a deflation in the market.

But buying outright you can't fail over a term of say 10 years compared to servicing a home loan.

Tigerandahalf

@mandrake
Re the house you sold. Is it just a 3bed and what is the location like?
$713,000 for a house is a lot of money.

mandrake04

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

@mandrake
Re the house you sold. Is it just a 3bed and what is the location like?
$713,000 for a house is a lot of money.

It was a originally a 3BR villa with a double garage and a decent garden but one of the BR had been converted into an open study when I bought it .....which I converted back and I did a little work out the back garden paving and decking.

The location is in a well healed area, 300m from shops. Since I bought it they decided to build a new train line & station about 200m away that's what drove the price up. Was hoping for $650K but sold to Asians $713K.

If I wanted to buy an older 4BR house on 700-800m2 in the same area you are looking at $850K+, could get a good sized 4BR house in a newer neighbouring suburb for around $720-760 but it's only on 400m.

Ended up having to move into inlaws holiday place as we haven't found the right place for us yet, I'm no hurry though as went to a few Auctions and it's hard not to get too emotional so am going to wait and see ....wife is getting bit fed up living up the coast though.

Tigerandahalf

That is in Sydney is it?
You did well to sell now. It is still a huge markup in the space of 4 years.

mandrake04

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

That is in Sydney is it?
You did well to sell now. It is still a huge markup in the space of 4 years.

Yep Castle Hill

Tigerandahalf

What is the capital gains tax? That would take quite a chunk or can you write it off if you reinvest?
Hope that is not too intrusive a question.
Would it be feasible to rent for 3 or 4 years and wait for a correction?

mandrake04

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

What is the capital gains tax? That would take quite a chunk or can you write it off if you reinvest?
Hope that is not too intrusive a question.
Would it be feasible to rent for 3 or 4 years and wait for a correction?

No capital gains on your primary home just pay tax on the interest of the lump in the bank, my wife inherited a house which may be little different as we can't live in it or sell because one of her relatives lives in it rent free since he split from his wife as my mother-in-laws family thought this was be a good idea at the time. Personally I would like to sell it but my wife is sentimentally attached to it in a typically woman way.

Not interested in renting nor am I interested in buying a house for investment value, solely looking for the right home for long term plan just not prepared to rush in too quick.

catbear

According to this revised system, the total number of people with jobs - both part-time and full-time - in September was 11.59 million, compared with 11.62 million in August.
The number of unemployed rose from 735,00 to 746,00 over the same period.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/unemployment-rate-hits-61-in-september-20141009-113gyn.html#ixzz3FcIchoC8

Any slowdown in the job creation rate will stack up the unemployment rate.

jank

Catbear the resident merchant of doom.

AngryHippie

catbear wrote: »

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/unemployment-rate-hits-61-in-september-20141009-113gyn.html#ixzz3FcIchoC8

Any slowdown in the job creation rate will stack up the unemployment rate.

At face value today's data suggest that labour market conditions have stabilised in recent months," the bank said.

"However, it is important to note that these figures will be revised next month, with today's preliminary figures based on a 'stop-gap' methodology until the ABS can determine what the new appropriate seasonal pattern is.

Nothing to see here.:rolleyes:

catbear

jank wrote: »

Catbear the resident merchant of doom.

People contemplating a move here may find discussion of current economic trends useful in making their decision. Relocating a family half way around the world to where unemployment is rising may not seem like a great idea unless they're moving for a job that's pretty solid.

catbear

AngryHippie wrote: »

Nothing to see here.:rolleyes:

Yip, nothing at all.

Go Team Australia!

jank

catbear wrote: »

People contemplating a move here may find discussion of current economic trends useful in making their decision. Relocating a family half way around the world to where unemployment is rising may not seem like a great idea unless they're moving for a job that's pretty solid.

Discussing the Australian economy and its state, short term and long term is of course welcome and a good thing.
However, I was just making reference to your posts in this thread that seem to only post negative views of the Australian economy. You have posted 38 times so far and each one of them gives a negative assessment. Of course if one was only reading this thread you would swear that Australia is a few years away from being a basket case like Greece or Argentina. Not really the case and I would advise people to look at a more balanced view.

aido79

jank wrote: »

Discussing the Australian economy and its state, short term and long term is of course welcome and a good thing.
However, I was just making reference to your posts in this thread that seem to only post negative views of the Australian economy. You have posted 38 times so far and each one of them gives a negative assessment. Of course if one was only reading this thread you would swear that Australia is a few years away from being a basket case like Greece or Argentina. Not really the case and I would advise people to look at a more balanced view.

I get impression that he almost hopes Australia becomes a basket case like Greece or Argentina...but not before he milks it for all he can and then heads back to Ireland, and probably bad mouths Australia there to anyone who ever mentions Australia especially Perth.

AngryHippie

catbear wrote: »

Yip, nothing at all.

Go Team Australia!

Now lets put it in perspective, with a slow-down in recovery in Europe and the Dow sh!tting points all night, the AUD back over 69c.

We know there is a property bubble, we know unemployment has crept back up, but as the report said, the figures given are interim until the seasonal adjustment figures have been modeled.
It will surge again in the coming weeks as casual work increases in the run up to Christmas. September is always a funny time of year.

Once the seasonally adjusted figure has been released, you can put on your tin foil hat, and do your chicken little run down main st. But every time you jump the gun, expect to get some flak for it, especially when you've been banging on like a cracked record for a few years now shouting 'Zebras' every time you hear hooves.

As for the "Team Australia" remark, well fcuk yeah, why not ?

You think I'm a shill for the Australian economy ?

I can't even afford to buy a house here, why would I be an apologist for it ?
I'm just not overly negative about an economy that while just as vulnerable as the entire Western Banking system at present, is still robust enough to survive.

sin_city

AngryHippie wrote: »

I can't even afford to buy a house here, why would I be an apologist for it ?
I'm just not overly negative about an economy that while just as vulnerable as the entire Western Banking system at present, is still robust enough to survive.

Why do you think the Western Banking system can survive?

Australia has so much going for it long term...a really good bet to have an Australian passport as an asset.

AngryHippie

sin_city wrote: »

Why do you think the Western Banking system can survive?

Australia has so much going for it long term...a really good bet to have an Australian passport as an asset.

Because it will take WW3 to remove it.


Filling out the paperwork this weekend, have the citizenship done and dusted anyway.

sin_city

AngryHippie wrote: »

Because it will take WW3 to remove it.


Filling out the paperwork this weekend, have the citizenship done and dusted anyway.

It is being removed as we speak. Australia is in a good position in that it is connected to the previous power US/UK as well as the new one China.

Goodluck on the citizenship.

catbear

Current state of play. As expected mining continues to shrink.

Australia's mining companies are shedding jobs by the thousands, with 50,000 workers losing their jobs in the past 12 months.
The country's manufacturing industry has been shrinking too, though not as quickly - dumping 25,300 jobs since February last year.

Economists say the huge drop-off in mining jobs has been offset by strong growth in services. The much-needed economic transition away from mining and towards non-mining activity is progressing.
The construction industry has been a big beneficiary of Australia's record-low interest rate environment. A boom in housing activity - new dwellings and renovations - has seen construction worker numbers soar by 45,800 since February 2014.
But the biggest jobs gains have occurred in professional, scientific and technical services, up by 98,800 people in the last year (from 889,000 to 987,800).

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/mining-companies-shedding-jobs-by-the-thousands-20150319-1m35zx.html#ixzz3UqRf2ic2

The Aussie

aido79 wrote: »

I get impression that he almost hopes Australia becomes a basket case like Greece or Argentina...but not before he milks it for all he can and then heads back to Ireland, and probably bad mouths Australia there to anyone who ever mentions Australia especially Perth.

JONJOE the Second...

Hates it but stays there, very odd.

Timistry

I may not be an economist but I think the economy is a house of cards.

In the article above posted by catbear the number of houses being built is rising and rising. In Perth there is a huge shortage of bricklayers and the good ones are outearning doctors, lawyers etc hands down. That is being paid for my money borrowed from the banks at historically low interest rates, a fact that is advertised heavily. Rents are dropping,house prices are dropping and there is a flood of unoccupied office space in the city. Investment properties becoming a liability perhaps?

People in oz where isolated from the effects of the GFC by historically high iron ore prices and now they are at historic lows. iron ore industry revenues are in freefall in the apparent race to the bottom. Jobs are being lost left right and centre but people outside of the mining industry are oblivious to this it seems and keep borrowing huge sums like the good times will last for ever (remind you of anything???). The cost of living is increasing not decreasing.

The government is banking on the manufacturing sector taking up the slack. No chance IMO. Just look at the car industry, moving to asia because the costs in OZ are huge. As regards unemployment, it is rising but most people seem to think that the menial service jobs in catering, customer service jobs etc are beneath them. if the economy gets stuck in a rut, there is a chance it could get bogged down

Slideways

I'm no economist but I have been employed in the mining sector for 3 years now. There is no way in hell I would buy a house right now. It all appears like it could come tumbling down at any stage.

Products and services seem to be priced on a whim, with huge discrepancies from one supplier to another. It really reminds me of how things all went south back home. Discussing it with people here, they always say that Australia isnt Ireland, reliant on one sector. It does have other irons in the fire but if the mining sector collapses I am of the opinion the knock on effect will drag a lot more down with it

irishmover

Just in addition to the above article, here's one which sits closer to home as I've worked out of Emerald for 18 months, from mid 2012 until late 2013.

Working at Claremont, Moranbah, Blackwater and the new Adani mine at Carmichael I've been around most of the mines are places it talks about. Awful to see its destruction on these towns.

My old secretary from the company I worked for had bought an investment property in Blackwater. I'm sure she's not surviving too well at the moment.


http://m.couriermail.com.au/business/companies/the-aussie-towns-destroyed-by-chinas-economic-slowdown/story-fnkjk9kn-1227262601440

catbear

Woodside announced 300 jobs to go. Last year it was BHP cutting by 20%. I read a while back that Perth had seen a surge of roughly 40% increase in properties for sale in Perth since last year.

jank

Woodside job losses more to do with the global energy prices than anything else and has been on the cards a while.

catbear

jank wrote: »

Woodside job losses more to do with the global energy prices than anything else and has been on the cards a while.

As a commodities exporter WA is getting hammered. Just heard from a friend in Chevron, major redundancies on the way there too.

Edit: https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/26782159/big-job-cuts-loom-at-chevron/

Chevron will not put a figure on the likely cuts but there is an expectation the 4000-strong WA team could be cut in half by the time the Gorgon and Wheatstone projects begin operations.
Gorgon is supposed to become fully operational later this year, followed by Wheatstone towards the end of next year, marking the end of a construction boom that is currently employing more than 10,000 Chevron staff and contractors.

The projected fall off in project construction.

catbear

Keep in mind this guy is promoting his own book.

If new home buyers cannot access (or are not willing to take on) a greater sum of debt compared to previous buyers, Australia's wealth-creation strategy will collapse just like it did in Ireland. Rest assured, our society is definitely caught up in the same irrational exuberance they experienced.

From 1996 to 2014, housing prices and mortgage debt significantly outpaced economic fundamentals like inflation, rents, incomes and GDP. Yet, our central bankers are more concerned about whether we will pay less tomorrow for a can of soda than new home buyers in Sydney borrowing $50,000 more than last year to buy a home. Where is the logic in that?

http://news.domain.com.au/domain/real-estate-news/australia-is-in-one-of-the-worst-housing-bubbles-we-have-ever-seen-20150327-1m8vao.html