Fiscal Treaty Megathread [Poll Reset]

the groutch

polls do exactly what they say on the tin, they take a small sample of the population (usually 1,000).
I could do one poll today and have it 60/40 to the yes side, and then do another tomorrow with a different 1,000 people and have it 60/40 to the no side.
So taking them as gospel is not advised.

My wife was speaking to a couple of the neighbours about the vote and they are voting yes,

Why?
Because they are afraid that a no vote will rob them of their pensions!

The scare tactics appear to have worked. :mad:

Vicxas

Voting No as this treaty has a smack of sh!te about it

K-9

K-9 wrote: »

There's a point where developing countries grow hugely and eventually more or less catch up with the more developed countries, Ireland a good example. Eventually we become consumers, problem is we can't afford to manufacture in Ireland anymore. Then we blame China, Poland or whoever for stealing our jobs, but sure we did that 30 years ago.

Exactly, we should remember that it was our "captains of Industry" who outsourced the jobs there in the first place and that our consumers bought the stuff..

It just proves that you can't have it both ways, but it also proves that business leaders can!

Elessar

Not voting cos I don't give a sh*te

Scofflaw

Deleted User wrote: »

My wife was speaking to a couple of the neighbours about the vote and they are voting yes,

Why?
Because they are afraid that a no vote will rob them of their pensions!

The scare tactics appear to have worked. :mad:

You mean the Yes side scare tactics, as opposed to the No side scare tactics of perpetual austerity and enslavement.

amused,
Scofflaw

preddy

Scofflaw wrote: »

No side scare tactics of perpetual austerity and enslavement

Scare Factics !

Big NO from me today.

pajunior

Deleted User wrote: »

My wife was speaking to a couple of the neighbours about the vote and they are voting yes,

Why?
Because they are afraid that a no vote will rob them of their pensions!

The scare tactics appear to have worked. :mad:

That's a little bit rich don't you think. Both sides have run pretty crap campaigns but the no side has definitely come out worse with incorrect information coupled with ridiculous scare tactics. I won't even comment on them comparing the German Chancellor with an infamous predecessor.

ArmaniJeanss

Done deal I reckon, consistently 60% No on all polls here (even more when don't knows are excluded), and the No side seems to have far more Facts and End Ofs.

SafeSurfer

My default position in referendums is not to change the Irish constitution unless there are powerful arguments for changing it.

I have not been convinced by those arguing to change our constitution so for the first time in a European referendum will vote no.

syklops

the groutch wrote: »

polls do exactly what they say on the tin, they take a small sample of the population (usually 1,000).
I could do one poll today and have it 60/40 to the yes side, and then do another tomorrow with a different 1,000 people and have it 60/40 to the no side.
So taking them as gospel is not advised.

To be honest, you could set up a poll of a 1000 people today and it would be 60/40 to the yes side, and tomorrow use the same people and it could be 60/40 to the no side.

That maybe says more about people than polls.

tonycascarino

Just voted NO & delighted with my choice

arybvtcw0eolkf

Its a NO from me and my family.

Of the YES people I know, and they're very few, they mostly voted YES and referred back to Lisbon II and said "sure they'll only make us do it again".

Democracy my arse.

GreenLady

squod wrote: »

It's not a case of me not knowing, thank you. It's a case of you ''believing''.
If you honestly take these polls as gospel then I can't help you. Set a poll up for yourself on whether people believe these polls!

I obviously have some sort of intellectual deficit since I can't understand the relationship between whether people believe polls and whether they are accurate. You apparently equate belief and knowledge.

However, the Oireachtas did commission research into the accuracy of opinion polls in ireland and into whether they influenced voting behaviour back in 2009 and specifically around the Lisbon Treaty. The outcome can be found at http://www.oireachtas.ie/parliament/ - search under political opinion polls to download the pdf.

Of course the source is tainted - the Oireachtas paid for the study so it must be biased, and Professor Marsh, when I last checked, was probably the leading expert on political opinion polls in Europe and therefore obviously doesn't know as much as you do and anyway surely sold out the Fianna Fail government - but others may find it interesting

pajunior

Kenna Inexpensive Tundra wrote: »

Its a NO from me and my family.

Of the YES people I know, and they're very few, they mostly voted YES and referred back to Lisbon II and said "sure they'll only make us do it again".

Democracy my arse.

But they didn't make us vote again on the same treaty, they changed the treaty and asked us if we wanted it. 60% of the country voted yes. That sounds pretty democratic to me.

the groutch

Would the wet weather today favour the NO side?
I had always gotten the impression that OAPs are more likely to vote Yes, and bad weather will mean more will stay at home.

Pee wee stairmaster

Voted no because the state is hooked on borrowing, simple as. The CPA needs to be torn up, the exorbitant pay and defined benefit pensions of senior and middle ranking civil and public servants need to be tackled.
I have a number of friends working the PS who tell me that the wastage and inefficiecies that go on are mind blowing.
Truth is we have a generous welfare state which for some (not all) is seen as a career choice. This needs to stop.
Costs throughout the economy need to come down, our medical and legal costs are massive compared to most countries. Upward rent reviews need to be abolished, they are costing hundreds if not thousands of retail jobs.
If by voting no it forces the government take the vested interests on then great but I won't hold my breath. Instead those who are entitled to nothing yet pay for everything will bear the brunt.

Morlar

It'll be a No from me too.

Hopefully the EU will accept a NO vote if that is the outcome.

syklops

the groutch wrote: »

Would the wet weather today favour the NO side?
I had always gotten the impression that OAPs are more likely to vote Yes, and bad weather will mean more will stay at home.

tbh I'd say the opposite. Alot of the No people are people who want to give two fingers to the government, in a kind of Democratic F**k you. I would say they are more likely to be influenced by the rain.

The OAPs are much more likely to brave wind, hail and storm to vote. My decrepid auntie who can barely stir from the chair most days has been in and voted and is back already(got a text earlier).

Also the Yes camp are voting yes because they believe it in our best interests, not just to make a statement. Beliefs are stronger than statements.

Pompey Magnus

I'm voting no, all my family are voting no, all my girlfriend's family are voting no and the vast bulk of my friends are voting no.

Seriously where are all the yes voters? Either most of the people I talk about the treaty are lying to me or else I am not moving in the right social circles :pac:.

Judging by the volume from the NO side here, I would expect that many would brave a hurricane to show their displeasure at the treaty, either that or they're just keyboard warriors!

I'm still completely undecided
I was in the yes camp for quite a while but now I'm just not sure at all. My brain is melted.

I had some of this in my bathroom this morning and I'm thinking it was a sign!

--Kaiser--

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm still completely undecided
I was in the yes camp for quite a while but now I'm just not sure at all. My brain is melted.

I had some of this in my bathroom this morning and I'm thinking it was a sign!

If you don't understand the issue, don't vote.
Simples

Edit: Judging by a smattering of the posts here, few actually understand the issue

Morlar

--Kaiser-- wrote: »

If you don't understand the issue, don't vote.
Simples

Actually, if you don't understand the proposal you should vote No.

You cannot accept changes you do not understand.

Craebear

Deleted User wrote: »

Judging by the volume from the NO side here, I would expect that many would brave a hurricane to show their displeasure at the treaty, either that or they're just keyboard warriors!

The latter, most won't vote and many just want to be cool. It's always the same here.

--Kaiser--

Morlar wrote: »

Actually, if you don't understand the proposal you should vote No.

You cannot accept changes you do not understand.

Illogical.
If you don't understand the issue, leave the voting to people who actually bothered their arse to try to understand it.

Voting No becasue you don't understand it is retarded, as is voting No to give two fingers to the government or the EU

humanji

Morlar wrote: »

Actually, if you don't understand the proposal you should vote No.

You cannot accept changes you do not understand.

Ah not this sh*te again. We're not standing infront of a button and being asked if we want to push it or not. We're standing in front of two buttons and being asked which one to push.

If you don't understand the question, don't answer it. It's foolish to do otherwise.

--Kaiser--

--Kaiser-- wrote: »

Illogical.
If you don't understand the issue, leave the voting to people who actually bothered their arse to try to understand it.
Voting No becasue you don't understand it is retarded, as is voting No to give two fingers to the government or the EU

Get down off your fcuking high horse. Didn't bother their arse? are you serious?

Crucifix

Someone who's undecided isn't necessarily someone who doesn't understand.

The treaty itself is easy enough to understand, but the implications and analysis of the effects of the treaty are complex, and divisive. Plenty of people who understand the treaty and have done their reading will have a tough time picking a side.

jacko1

online poll is off the wall

YES holds a 20% average lead across all scientific polls and the latest odds from PaddyPower are

YES 1/25
NO 8/1

No are the vocal minority but Yes is the silent majority