Fiscal Treaty Megathread [Poll Reset]

SweetCaliber

The funny thing is that Kenny refuses to go on tv and debate the Treaty.

If he is this confident that this Treaty is the best option then why won't he go on and debate about it.

We seriously need a better leader, not caring about the country and only for himself.

Anthony16

Agreed.
If he cant debate with sinn fein imagine him at european leaders conventions.
Im sure he is seen as a joke and a soft touch for the germans

lee3155 wrote: »

The funny thing is that Kenny refuses to go on tv and debate the Treaty.

If he is this confident that this Treaty is the best option then why won't he go on and debate about it.

We seriously need a better leader, not caring about the country and only for himself.

EURATS

Anthony16 wrote: »

Agreed.
If he cant debate with sinn fein imagine him at european leaders conventions.
Im sure he is seen as a joke and a soft touch for the germans


No doubt that he is.

KeithM89_old

The poll has been reset, so feel free to vote again.

EURATS

KeithM89 wrote: »

The poll has been reset, so feel free to vote again.

Was there a reason for a poll reset?

Phill Ewinn

He's preparing us for the second round of voting on the fiscal treaty

KeithM89_old

EURATS wrote: »

Was there a reason for a poll reset?

We always do it for referendum and elections just before voting day.

EURATS

EURATS wrote: »

Was there a reason for a poll reset?

With all that's happened over the past few days, I'm sure that some people have had second thoughts.

I'm still a NO though, if politicians start using scare tactics to get you to vote yes, then it's best to steer clear of it.

The next few years are going to be hard regardless, let's not make it harder by agreeing to be bound to paying more than we can afford!

Phill Ewinn

Phill Ewinn wrote: »

He's preparing us for the second round of voting on the fiscal treaty

There won't need to be a second round!

The Eurozone could be a very different animal after the Greek elections and the fallout from the Spanish banking crisis that is currently unfolding.

This is a fiscal straitjacket for Ireland, not a union
By David McWilliams

“Don’t piss down my back and tell me it’s raining.” This line from The Outlaw Josey Wales, the classic Clint Eastwood western, is self-explanatory. In contending that the fiscal treaty will solve our dilemma, the European Commission and European Central Bank are pissing down Ireland’s back and telling us it’s raining.

Edit: Worth remembering that he was one of the few that predicted the housing collapse and the ending of the Celtic Tiger.

dvpower

Deleted User wrote: »

Edit: Worth remembering that he was one of the few that predicted the housing collapse and the ending of the Celtic Tiger.

Sure he can't put a foot wrong.

David McWilliams on the Bank Guarantee wrote:

In time, Brian Lenihan’s move yesterday will be seen as a masterstroke and a practical blueprint for the new financial architecture which will emerge from this global crisis.

Scofflaw

Deleted User wrote: »

...if politicians start using scare tactics to get you to vote yes, then it's best to steer clear of it...

...let's not make it harder by agreeing to be bound to paying more than we can afford...

Good stuff. Totally inaccurate, and totally scaremongering, but good stuff anyway.

amused,
Scofflaw

Chucky the tree

Deleted User wrote: »

Edit: Worth remembering that he was one of the few that predicted the housing collapse and the ending of the Celtic Tiger.

Don't forget he was behind the bank guarentee aswell. That worked out well for us.

No one can be right everytime, but he has been more right than wrong!

Micky Dolenz

EURATS wrote: »

Was there a reason for a poll reset?

Also the undecided probably have made up their minds any way.

I'm sticking with my original thinking though.

StealthRolex

Chucky the tree wrote: »

Don't forget he was behind the bank guarentee aswell. That worked out well for us.

Surely the Minister was behind the bank guarantee... and still is ...

My name is URL

KeithM89 wrote: »

The poll has been reset, so feel free to vote again.

How very undemocratic of you

fsexplained

An unofficial video guide to the Fiscal Stability Treaty has just been published on YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJqVL1Z5DVs

Scofflaw

fsexplained wrote: »

An unofficial video guide to the Fiscal Stability Treaty has just been published on YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJqVL1Z5DVs

Clear explanations. One technical point about the "General Fiscal Rules" around 6.20 - the Treaty requirement for the Member States to support the Commissions "recommendations or proposals" does not apply to what the Commission might propose a Member State does to reduce its deficit, but to the Commission's recommendation that an excessive deficit be recognised, or its proposal that an excessive deficit procedure be started against the country concerned.

cordially,
Scofflaw

SeaFields

I have been fairly undecided up until the last few days but have decided to vote yes based on who is asking me to vote no.

StealthRolex

SeaFields wrote: »

I have been fairly undecided up until the last few days but have decided to vote yes based on who is asking me to vote no.

If there are more people you trust asking you to vote yes that is an efficient way to make a decision.

suicide_circus

The EU is a 'post-democracy'.

barbiegirl

SeaFields wrote: »

I have been fairly undecided up until the last few days but have decided to vote yes based on who is asking me to vote no.

Rather than listen to the spouting of anyone else why not read up on the treaty and make your own mind up?

I'm a no voter because there are a couple of points in the treaty which leave the door wide open to a common taxation base, a federal Europe oh and also we don't have to not be in the red according to the new rules for them to interfere, they can do it at any time they want. Too many holes.

No problem with fiscal responsibility and the specific targets, major problems with the ambiguity.

Check out Article 6, Article 9, Article 11 and Article 12

crusher000

Now that the media black out is in place time to discuss posiible out come. Both sides argued that either result would spell disaster for Ireland. So if this is the case is it lights out on Friday when we should have the results? Are we finsihed ?

FatherLen

to the megathread!!!

Jay D

Anyone who watched Prime Time last night surely would be barking mad to vote yes, crooked f**king idiots couldn't even answer a direct question.

Jay D

Jay D wrote: »

Anyone who watched Prime Time last night surely would be barking mad to vote yes, crooked f**king idiots couldn't even answer a direct question.

+1

It was like looking at the defendant in court squirming under difficult questioning while looking as guilty as sin.

The truth is that no one really knows how the Eurozone financial mess will pan out, there are far too many variables!

Voting yes would impair the countries ability to be flexible enough to avoid any curved balls flying in as fallout from the Greek/Spanish/Portugese/Italian or even the French or (insert country here) financial mess.

Scofflaw

Deleted User wrote: »

+1

It was like looking at the defendant in court squirming under difficult questioning while looking as guilty as sin.

The truth is that no one really knows how the Eurozone financial mess will pan out, there are far too many variables!

Voting yes would impair the countries ability to be flexible enough to avoid any curved balls flying in as fallout from the Greek/Spanish/Portugese/Italian or even the French or (insert country here) financial mess.

No, that's not the case - if the referendum result is a No, then the government has reduced options, not expanded ones. They cannot ratify the Fiscal Treaty or access ESM.

cordially,
Scofflaw

paddyandy

I will vote by instinctive feelings because i do not understand much at all .No matter how simply it's explained i'm sure there are opaque areas .

Doc Ruby

Scofflaw wrote: »

No, that's not the case - if the referendum result is a No, then the government has reduced options, not expanded ones. They cannot ratify the Fiscal Treaty or access ESM.

Okay riddle me this so - the shinners and associates have posters on every streetcorner declaring "vote no, we've had enough austerity" or words to that effect.

But if we can't access the ESM won't austerity just get a lot worse? As in we won't have the funds to pay for the public sector so Croke park will have to be ditched? Or have I picked it up wrong.

Scofflaw

Doc Ruby wrote: »

Okay riddle me this so - the shinners and associates have posters on every streetcorner declaring "vote no, we've had enough austerity" or words to that effect.

But if we can't access the ESM won't austerity just get a lot worse? As in we won't have the funds to pay for the public sector so Croke park will have to be ditched? Or have I picked it up wrong.

I can't see any way in which austerity can be reduced by voting No. Either:

(a) we turn out to have no access to funding at all, except maybe a couple of scrappy bilateral loans and expensive market rates. That means a very large adjustment in 2014, because we have an expected deficit of €8bn, some €2bn in other costs, and €8bn in government bonds needing to be rolled over in mid-January. So we would need to come up with maybe €18bn in austerity in 2014 if this is what happens.

(b) the European countries heave a sigh, and put their hands in their pockets again, for a special bailout for a special country. I can't see any way this could be cheaper or less stringent than ESM - politically, that's impossible - and I can see lots of ways in which it can be more so, because the same countries as we're looking to for money will already be paying up their ESM subscriptions, which are supposed to be covering countries like us. It's likely, i think, that our requirements will be pared back as far as possible, the rates will be closer to market rates (aside from anything else, the money they borrow to lend to us will be at a higher rate), and the conditions will be tougher and involve more pain on our part, less lending on theirs. While it's not in Europe's interests (or desires) to see us go down the tubes, it's not in Europe's interests to cut a better deal for a country that refuses the fiscal rules.

So, what I see in the former case is much more expensive lending and much less money, meaning much greater austerity - and in the latter, somewhat more expensive lending and somewhat less money, meaning somewhat greater austerity.

I can't see any way in which a No vote actually reduces austerity, and I don't think anyone on the No side has come up with any such way. Their best offer so far is that we'll be able to access ESM really, because the stipulation that Fiscal Treaty ratification is a condition of ESM access is in the preamble, not the body. Unfortunately, that's nonsense (as far as I know, they haven't even bothered to make it part of their current High Court challenge, even though they reiterate the claim on this morning's journal.ie Q&A).

cordially,
Scofflaw