London marathon mens field

thirstywork2

Looks like London is going to be some race this year.Emmanuel Mutai would have been fav but had thyroid.Martin Lel came from 3 years out to take second last year.Abel Kirui,Kipsang and many more will make this a great race.

I hope Lel wins as he is one of my all time favourite marathon runners.

ecoli

thirstywork2 wrote: »

Looks like London is going to be some race this year.Emmanuel Mutai would have been fav but had thyroid.Martin Lel came from 3 years out to take second last year.Abel Kirui,Kipsang and many more will make this a great race.

I hope Lel wins as he is one of my all time favourite marathon runners.

I think if it becomes a time trial Will be a three way battle between Makau, Kipsang and Mutai

However when you have the Worlds gold and silver medalist you can't discount them especially if it becomed tactical.

Given Mosop and G Mutai's slip ups this could very well be a possiblity as could create an atmosphere where no one wants to make a mistake as looking at Rotterdam and Boston one bad run can very much ruin chances of a Kenyan spot for the OG

I wouldnt be surprised if all three team members for the Olympics come from this race

dermCu

ecoli wrote: »

I wouldnt be surprised if all three team members for the Olympics come from this race

I would. Athletics Kenya never struck me as being the most transparent organisation when it comes to these kinds of crunch choices. They could pick any combination of the 6 based on any number of factors.

Sunday is going to be a bit of a 'Grand National' type race. Could be any number of guys. One of these days Tadese is going to nail a marathon. Having a 2:12 pb must irritate a guy like him :eek: He has a couple of his country men running with him this year so if they work as a unit you never know.

I'd like to see Lel be in the mix. He's a class act. Very unlucky over the last few years.

ecoli

dermCu wrote: »

I would. Athletics Kenya never struck me as being the most transparent organisation when it comes to these kinds of crunch choices. They could pick any combination of the 6 based on any number of factors.

The only thing regarding this would be as far as I remember the list was shortlisted to 6 with Makau, the two Mutai's, Kipsang, Kirui and Mosop being named in the provisional team

With Mosop running 2.05 as well as "only" finishing third in Rotterdam and G Mutai's DNF it puts the other 4 in with a great shout. I do agree with the transparency and I think G Mutai may still be picked (IMO rightly so given his performances last year and the conditions in Boston). Mosop however on the other hand I think sealed his own faith in Rotterdam.

Scary to think a low 2.05 can ruin your chances of making the Olympics:eek:

Interestingly Tadese doing this as I firmly believe he can challenge for a 10,000m medal still and I think Rio 2016 would be better to aim for the Marathon. I think his agressive nature is not as well suited to the longer distance (beyond his HM WR)

rovers_runner

I'd fancy Lilesa and Tadese to be in the shake up.
Betfair has a market up but nothing happening on it yet, can get Lilesa at 16's but reckon he'll be higher on the day.

brutes1

Any Irish guys or women going for an Olympic qual time in London.?

ecoli

brutes1 wrote: »

Any Irish guys or women going for an Olympic qual time in London.?

Dont think so. Here is the only list I could find for the elite fields. I assume it was not an option because we don't have athletes quick enough to make the elite standard for these races hence it may cause complications with congestion and not getting their own personal bottles on tables.

http://londonmarathoner.com/Athletes/2012EliteFields.htm

(When you see this you see just how ridiculous the fields are in that there are 10 2.05 runners in the mens side)

myflipflops

Agree with the people hoping for something for Lel. I think he is one of the best (if not the best) we have ever seen. 4th in the amazing Wanjiru marathon in Beijing when he had malaria. Lel had Wanjirus number the other times they had met. He is a bit too old to have as much confidence in his consistency but he will be the value each way bet in this i guess.

Usually a couple of withdrawals in the week of London because the field is so deep so easier to judge the whole race on Friday I think.

Kenyan Olympic selection is anyones guess after Mosop and the DNF's in Boston.

It's going to be an outstanding race though.

robinph

thirstywork2 wrote: »

...Emmanuel Mutai would have been fav but had thyroid...

Just did a quick Google to see what I could find out about this and this thread came out top result and not much else.

Anyway, snap with Mutai. If it's anything like what has recently happened with me then he's probably feeling bloody great right now (relatively) and is on some new drugs and just didn't realise how rubbish he'd felt before.

ecoli

robinph wrote: »

Just did a quick Google to see what I could find out about this and this thread came out top result and not much else.

http://www.supersport.com/athletics/running/news/120417/Typhoid_wont_deter_Mutai

You can't say us mods aren't anything but helpful:P

couerdelion

robinph wrote: »

Just did a quick Google to see what I could find out about this and this thread came out top result and not much else.

Anyway, snap with Mutai. If it's anything like what has recently happened with me then he's probably feeling bloody great right now (relatively) and is on some new drugs and just didn't realise how rubbish he'd felt before.

Try typhoid rather than thyroid.

Beaten to it, I'd like to see Mutai running at 16 stone with a thyroid problem - actually maybe that's my problem...

robinph

couerdelion wrote: »

Try typhoid rather than thyroid.

Beaten to it, I'd like to see Mutai running at 16 stone with a thyroid problem - actually maybe that's my problem...

We'll put it down to an overzealous spell checker on thirstywork2's PC shall we.

Woddle

rovers_runner wrote: »

Betfair has a market up but nothing happening on it yet, can get Lilesa at 16's but reckon he'll be higher on the day.

I could be totally wrong here but I think Kipsang is your man and although the market only has €35 matched I've gone and put a tenner on him at 7.05.

thirstywork2

Tadese 100-1 is crazy odds,as Dermcu said he won't lik havign a pb of 2.12 when he has a low 58mins for the half. http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-ie/Athletics-c110000016

Clum

Don't write off the Ethiopians either.

3 Ethiopians went sub 2.05 in Dubai earlier this year (Abshero 2.04.23, Dino Sefir 2:04:50 and Markos Geneti 2:04:54). Then in Rotterdam Yemane Adhane won in 2.04.48 followed by Feleke in 2.04.50 last weekend so the likes of Kebede (with a PB of 2:05:18) and Worku (2:05:25 PB) will be looking for a fast time to qualify for the Olympics too.

With everything that's on the line between a victory in one of the biggest marathons in the world, the prize money, and places in the Olympics it's possible we could see 5 athletes under 2.05! And maybe even a couple under 2.04.

Unfortunately it's not a great weather forecast for Sunday in London so times may not be as quick as possible, but it should still be very competitive.

dermCu

Clum wrote: »

Unfortunately it's not a great weather forecast for Sunday in London so times may not be as quick as possible, but it should still be very competitive.

What'chu talkin' 'bout, Willis?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/london
Keep talking like that you'll frighten everyone over on the London thread in events. They'll want deferred places if the wind gets > 10mph
Looks ok to me. Not perfect but not as windy as predicted earlier this week.

Larry Brent

There was a great article on the science of sport website a while back about Tadesse being the most economical runner recorded and so had great marathon potential. Read somewhere recently he's about a minute slower over HM this year as his training has been more properly geared to marathon than HM so maybe this will be his year. Don't know if there's truth to the last bit though, was letsrun thread I think.

walshb

http://londonmarathoner.com/Athletes...liteFields.htm

"Most Wins - Men:
Martin Lel (KEN) - { 2005, 07, 08 }
Dionicio Ceron (MEX) - { 1994, 95, 96 }
Antonio Pinto (POR) - { 1992, 97, 2000 }
Abdelkader El Mouaziz (MOR) - { 1994, 95, 96 } ="

Is there an error above?

I see two men won the London Marathon in three races.

Clearlier

dermCu wrote: »

What'chu talkin' 'bout, Willis?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/london
Keep talking like that you'll frighten everyone over on the London thread in events. They'll want deferred places if the wind gets > 10mph
Looks ok to me. Not perfect but not as windy as predicted earlier this week.

Looks miles better to me than last year's conditions - at least for the mortals.

Clum

dermCu wrote: »

What'chu talkin' 'bout, Willis?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/london
Keep talking like that you'll frighten everyone over on the London thread in events. They'll want deferred places if the wind gets > 10mph
Looks ok to me. Not perfect but not as windy as predicted earlier this week.

That forecast looks better than the one I was looking at (weather.co.uk). I saw showers and stronger wind. Here's hoping they get the better of the two.

I dunno why I even checked that site cos I usually check a Norweigan site for any weather forecasts (yr.no - they're usually on the ball). yr.no says it won't be windy but there will be showers which I guess is a good enough forecast so roll on the racing!

thirstywork2

walshb wrote: »

http://londonmarathoner.com/Athletes...liteFields.htm

"Most Wins - Men:
Martin Lel (KEN) - { 2005, 07, 08 }
Dionicio Ceron (MEX) - { 1994, 95, 96 }
Antonio Pinto (POR) - { 1992, 97, 2000 }
Abdelkader El Mouaziz (MOR) - { 1994, 95, 96 } ="

Is there an error above?

I see two men won the London Marathon in three races.

Abdelkader El Mouaziz won it in 99

myflipflops

thirstywork2 wrote: »

Tadese 100-1 is crazy odds,as Dermcu said he won't lik havign a pb of 2.12 when he has a low 58mins for the half. http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-ie/Athletics-c110000016

Outrageous price, nice spot. Market done purely off PB's it would seem. Tadese will click a marathon eventually and run 2.04/2.05, it just depends when. The each way part is the best value - 25/1 for top 3.

dermCu

Jeez myflipflops how much did you put on him? He's susp on Ladbrokes now.

TheRoadRunner

dermCu wrote: »

Jeez myflipflops how much did you put on him? He's susp on Ladbrokes now.

my sentiments exactly. I tried to put money on him last night and was cursing myflipflops

myflipflops

The early bird and all that lads.

I'm surprised the price lasted so long. It obviously went up when i was in bed last night. I saw it this morning and got a mate back home to open an account and back it for me.

You can still back him at 50/1 with Coral which is also too big.

TheRoadRunner

myflipflops wrote: »

The early bird and all that lads.

I'm surprised the price lasted so long. It obviously went up when i was in bed last night. I saw it this morning and got a mate back home to open an account and back it for me.

You can still back him at 50/1 with Coral which is also too big.

down to 16-1 now!

dermCu

He wasn't even listed on William Hill. I made a request and they put him straight on at 14/1

Kurt Godel

TheRoadRunner wrote: »

down to 16-1 now!

Now at 12/1- how much of that drop is this thread responsible for?:D

I got a few bob on last night before the odds shortened. Don't usually bet, but I made a few quid a couple of years back when someone pointed out Maria McCambridge had long odds for a XC race, fingers crossed lightening will strike twice!

TheRoadRunner

Kurt Godel wrote: »

Now at 12/1- how much of that drop is this thread responsible for?:D

I got a few bob on last night before the odds shortened. Don't usually bet, but I made a few quid a couple of years back when someone pointed out Maria McCambridge had long odds for a XC race, fingers crossed lightening will strike twice!

Was only talking to somebody about this today, made a few quid myself

G-Money

Really looking forward to this race.

thirstywork2

http://www.athleticsweekly.com/news/mutai-ready-to-defend-london-title-after-bout-of-typhoid/

dermCu

Looking at the start list again I think Kebede is still good value for an e/w. He was Mr consistency for a couple of years and he must be stung a little bit by not being included in the Ethiopian provisional list - even though they say its still open. In fact after seeing what happened in Rotterdam backing any one of the top Ethiopians seems wise. They would be fools if they didn't go hunting in packs. In my view they seem more prepared to work as a team than the Kenyan 'superstars'.

myflipflops

He is.

As the market stands, I would back Kebede at 20's and Lel at 16's each way.

In the womens race, i would back Dibaba each way at 20's. It looks a really big each way price to me. Already on Florence Kiplagat at 10's.

walshb

BBC coverage starts at 0830 hrs. Anyone know what time the start gun is fired?

Sosa

walshb wrote: »

BBC coverage starts at 0830 hrs. Anyone know what time the start gun is fired?

09:45 i think

thirstywork2

Can't wait for this race..will have to my run done before the race

Mary Keitany will probably win the womens surging ahead between 15-20miles as she normally does.Some strong competition but think she will have enough to hold on but @ 15-8 she is too skimpy.


Tadesse and Lel both backed e-w

Brianderunner

Sosa wrote: »

09:45 i think

Yep but the elite women start 30 mins before

T runner

dermCu wrote: »

Looking at the start list again I think Kebede is still good value for an e/w. He was Mr consistency for a couple of years and he must be stung a little bit by not being included in the Ethiopian provisional list - even though they say its still open. In fact after seeing what happened in Rotterdam backing any one of the top Ethiopians seems wise. They would be fools if they didn't go hunting in packs. In my view they seem more prepared to work as a team than the Kenyan 'superstars'.

I think also the Ethiopians have caught up training wise with the Kenyans. The guy who won Rotterdam ran a PB of 2:04:48 in windy conditions in his 15th marathon! The wealth of quality Ethiopian performances this year points to something new in their marathon training.
Really looking forward to this!

RoyMcC

A shout out for Lee Merrien of that 'other' island going for GB Olympic qualifying - A 2.12, B 2.16.

TheRoadRunner

Ha ha. Myself and Shels just back from an Italian on tower bridge. Was filled with the Kenyan guys. We were debating should we start throwing digs or food poison the gits. Tadese was also in there sitting at the table next to us in fact. Couldn't believe it. I wanted to tell him that the lads back in Ireland had big bucks riding on him and there would be Christmas this year if he lost but I didn't want to interupt him from his dinner

thirstywork2

Friend of mine who spends alot of time in Kenya said Kipsang will win.He is sure Mutai and Makau won't win.
The head pysio for the kenyan team who treats them in London told him this.will be keepign a close eye on Kipsang(current odds 3-1)

goalie2

When can one apply fro 2013 marathon ?

Gringo78

thirstywork2 wrote: »

Friend of mine who spends alot of time in Kenya said Kipsang will win.He is sure Mutai and Makau won't win.
The head pysio for the kenyan team who treats them in London told him this.will be keepign a close eye on Kipsang(current odds 3-1)

Kipsang looks extremely comfortable at 15km....you're sources look good

Woddle

Woddle wrote: »

I could be totally wrong here but I think Kipsang is your man and although the market only has €35 matched I've gone and put a tenner on him at 7.05.

and I've just layed it at evens for a free bet come on Kipsang

thirstywork2

I wouldn't be laying Kipsang,still early but I think he will win easy and run wellunder 2.05

walshb

Weir wins again. Phenomenal!

thirstywork2

62.12 halfway

http://results-2012.virginlondonmarathon.com/2012/index.php?pid=leaderboard

Woddle

Predicted finish time down to 2:03:50 and if I remember correctly Kipsang finished Rotterdam last year like a steam train

thirstywork2

Feyisa Lilesa who won Dublin marathon in 2009 in the top 3

BobMac104

Their last few miles have been crazy fast. That poor pacer was only hanging on to half way.

thirstywork2

Martin Lel will get second