Has Summer Already Been Cancelled?

mike65

I know its a bit soon to say it but I canna see anything to suggest settled/warm weather on the horizon, a great blob of green sat over us as far as the eye can see on the GFS chart. Does anyone have any predictions to cheer me up?

DOCARCH

This is normal weather for April! So my theory is if we are getting this weather in April we will get a good summer!

Iancar29

Last time i checked we are still in Spring... :rolleyes:

Min

No summer not cancelled, don't want a totally dry summer anyway. Once it is warmer than last year, with rain or thunderstorms now and again to keep the grass growing along with plenty of nice sunshine I will be happy.
Last summer was good here apart from the temperatures which could have done with being a few degrees higher.
I think we only got about 30% of the normal rainfall, remember looking for rain at times...

NIMAN

Min wrote: »

No summer not cancelled, don't want a totally dry summer anyway. Once it is warmer than last year, with rain or thunderstorms now and again to keep the grass growing along with plenty of nice sunshine I will be happy.
Last summer was good here apart from the temperatures which could have done with being a few degrees higher.
I think we only got about 30% of the normal rainfall, remember looking for rain at times...

Eh?

My grass grew like it was on steroids last summer, and due to the pouring rain it was often about 3 or 4 weeks before I could find a dry spell to get out and get it cut. But it was still soaking wet, and wet grass never cuts right and leaves a mess.

I want a dry summer. All the way.

Min

NIMAN wrote: »

Eh?

My grass grew like it was on steroids last summer, and due to the pouring rain it was often about 3 or 4 weeks before I could find a dry spell to get out and get it cut. But it was still soaking wet, and wet grass never cuts right and leaves a mess.

I want a dry summer. All the way.

The grass started to brown on brows of hills at one stage here from the lack of rain, it was weird as the country was divided, the western half of the country got the rain but it nearly all the time died out before it hit this part of the country. I remember the farming weather forecast and it had 30% of average rainfall for Kilkenny, Laois, Carlow and parts of Kildare.

The met eireann summer report

http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly_summarys/summer11sum.pdf

Bicycle

Anyone remember the summer of 2003?

The rain kept on coming down that spring with no end in sight. I had a party for the kids the last day of school. I got a bouncy castle with a roof because the weather was so bad.

But the weather got so bad again that the kids ended up going home and getting swimming gear and actually swimming in the bouncy castle the rain was so bad :D:D

And then one day later that week the sun came out and it stayed out until the first week in November. I remember walking along the lakeshore in Killarney in flip flops on the 4th or 5th November.

Gonzo

I seem to remember the past 4 or 5 Aprils had warm sunny conditions here with temperatures into the low 20s followed by washout summers and then there was last years damp and bitterly cold summer. This year seems different, after an incredibly mild winter and warm March, we are now in a cold April, which I hope is the sign that we will finally have a decent summer hopefully. I dont even mind if May is cold and a washout as long as June, July and August are decent.

Deep Easterly

Gonzo wrote: »

we are now in a cold April, which I hope is the sign that we will finally have a decent summer hopefully.

A cold or warm April really has no influence on what type of summer is ahead, and that is a statistical fact. I hope though that we do get a really hot and humid summer this year.

mike65

Why would anyone want a humid summer?

Iancar29

mike65 wrote: »

Why would anyone want a humid summer?

FOR THESE OF COURSE!!! :rolleyes:

Gonzo

I really hope this summer does not end up being 3 months long of the following bbc forecast! this seems to happen every year unfortunately. http://youtu.be/clJkLoU79gM

bb1234567

Gonzo wrote: »

I seem to remember the past 4 or 5 Aprils had warm sunny conditions here with temperatures into the low 20s followed by washout summers and then there was last years damp and bitterly cold summer. This year seems different, after an incredibly mild winter and warm March, we are now in a cold April, which I hope is the sign that we will finally have a decent summer hopefully. I dont even mind if May is cold and a washout as long as June, July and August are decent.

Couldnt have said it better meself:)

Elmer Blooker

bb1234567 wrote: »

Couldnt have said it better meself:)

Neither could I, as April goes downhill (meteorologically speaking) I'm becoming more optimistic for a long over waited decent summer.

blackius

Irish summers are entirely understandable but completely unpredictable I'm afraid.

So the answer is we don't know.

lolie

mike65 wrote: »

Why would anyone want a humid summer?

What ian said and lots of these.;)

Deep Easterly

mike65 wrote: »

Why would anyone want a humid summer?

To help lock in some actual warmth into the air. The last two summers, at least here in the western half of Ireland, were cold, or at least cold feeling. Almost constant polar sourced nagging westerlies, coupled with relatively low RH values, ensured that daytime temps felt colder than what the usual 17c-18c daily maxima suggested. I have felt more warmth under a typical winter humid warm sector at 10c than I did at any point in the last two summers.

Hot, humid, monsoonal type weather will do me just fine!

h57xiucj2z946q

Im already having summer... abroad.

Gonzo

the entire 3 months of summer last year felt no warmer than the weather we are currently having, I think this summer can only be better but theres nothing to stop it from raining every day. Winter woolies were worn almost every day last summer and the heat was on many occassions.

Speak Now

DOCARCH wrote: »

This is normal weather for April! So my theory is if we are getting this weather in April we will get a good summer!

Last great Summer in 2006 came after a decent April. I think May 06 was a washout though. Was worth it for what followed

Also remember April 07 being the warmest on record with a decent May after it. Dont think any of us need reminding how wet June/July and August turned out that year

So really you get what you get i suppose and it has no real bearing on what will happen in the following months.

All we need is the jet stream to go north for a few months :cool:

Aiel

First of all,to Damo2k-i was in Tempe Az twice and i remember temps like that this time of year.It is Desert heat too so not much humidity:).
A fisherman was telling me before that a sign of a good Summer is when you see the birds building their nest's high up in the tree's as they know they will be safe enough up there for the months ahead and they wont need to build them lower down for shelter etc.For the last few weeks ive seen plenty of nest's very high up in the tree's.

Babybuff

Is there any chance that I'm not going to be freeing my ass off for another month soon? Why is it so cold? I'm a hardy warm blooded person who doesn't mind the cold too much but this is just more than I can handle at this stage. I'm tired of being cold.

Elmer Blooker

nothing unusual about this babybuff. We don't really get proper seasons in Ireland. Spring is any time between January and June and autumn between July and December. Every few years we might get something that resembles winter or summer.
Examples: December 2010 and July 2006.

This place Omsk in Siberia was in a deep freeze until a couple of weeks ago and now it's 21c at 8pm. http://abonent.omsk.skylink.ru/webcam.php

DOCARCH

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

So really you get what you get i suppose and it has no real bearing on what will happen in the following months.

+1 one that!

Just to say my theory was not scientific!

h57xiucj2z946q

Aiel wrote: »

First of all,to Damo2k-i was in Tempe Az twice and i remember temps like that this time of year.It is Desert heat too so not much humidity:).

I have been here a few times myself. As they say here "it's a dry heat". Its alot easier tobtake without the humidity.

Elmer Blooker

this place was snow covered up to about 2 or 3 weeks ago, I'd love to live in a place that actually has a climate!!

http://abonent.omsk.skylink.ru/webcam.php

eskimocat

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

this place was snow covered up to about 2 or 3 weeks ago, I'd love to live in a place that actually has a climate!!

http://abonent.omsk.skylink.ru/webcam.php

Had a look and first thing that I thought was you need to have some nerves on you to drive across that junction... are the traffic lights merely decorations...

What would it be like in snow!!!! Elmer please post it again if you spot it in snowy conditions

Elmer Blooker

The snow won't be back until late Oct/early Nov. The snow doesn't seem to be particularly heavy because the climate in winter is very dry. Even when it does snow the traffic moves normally as they're well used to it.
There's probably nowhere on earth further from the sea than this place in central Asia.

rhonin

eskimocat wrote: »

Had a look and first thing that I thought was you need to have some nerves on you to drive across that junction... are the traffic lights merely decorations...

What would it be like in snow!!!! Elmer please post it again if you spot it in snowy conditions

I was thinking that myself!

I wish this weather would feck off. Need some mild weather now. The trees had started to bud but seemed to have stalled in the last two weeks.

Elmer Blooker

Mean temps at Dublin Airport (my nearest)
Jan 6.1c Feb 6.6c April (so far) 6.3c
would you believe it?

bb1234567

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Mean temps at Dublin Airport (my nearest)
Jan 6.1c Feb 6.6c April (so far) 6.3c
would you believe it?

I'd believe completely, april thus far imo has felt much colder day and night than it ever did during the entire winter. Guess I wasnt even that far off:pac:

pauldry

yeah its easily the coldest month here in Sligo too out of January 7.1c, February 7.2c, March 8.7c and April 6.7c. Not far off December 6.6c.

This is quite normal. In 2005 there was a very cold April and Summer wasnt at all bad. The ocean is just sorting itself for the Summer season and I d believe we wont see a Northwesterly pattern get stuck like last year and High Pressure will be even closer (last few Summers High was close at times but it had no effect due to Northwesterly Airstream or Lows satg over us like now.

I think most of May will now be cold too but then at the end it will dry up and heat up!:)

Harps

Don't know about everywhere else but its been a great month here so far, sunny most days with some great cloudscapes and plenty of interesting weather around the country. A few degrees cooler than normal but its perfectly fine when the sun's shining, definitely a lot more pleasant than January or February ever were

Deep Easterly

pauldry wrote: »

yeah its easily the coldest month here in Sligo too out of January 7.1c, February 7.2c, March 8.7c and April 6.7c. Not far off December 6.6c.

IMT stats fairly similar:

Dec: 6.0c
Jan: 6.6c
Feb: 7.0c
Mar: 8.5c
April (so far) 6.8c.

As has been said, apart from a few days in March, a remarkable lack of temperature variation over the last few months.

mike65

please (live image so will change)

dexter647

^^^ Charts like that only materialise in the winter months unfortunately

mike65

Anyone want to disagree with me now?

Lucreto

It is only the middle of June still a good 4 months left.

bb1234567

Lucreto wrote: »

It is only the middle of June still a good 4 months left.

Those words sound eerily similar to those said many times last november/december..:( Everyone kept saying oh theres ages left for the snow to come and they kept saying it again and again again until it was may and now were into a crap(well not too bad last couple of days) summer and the heat will probably never come and then well be into a mild winter again with no snow and well be stuck in a horrible cycle of cold summers and mild winters forevermore:(

Lucreto

bb1234567 wrote: »

Those words sound eerily similar to those said many times last november/december..:( Everyone kept saying oh theres ages left for the snow to come and they kept saying it again and again again until it was may and now were into a crap(well not too bad last couple of days) summer and the heat will probably never come and then well be into a mild winter again with no snow and well be stuck in a horrible cycle of cold summers and mild winters forevermore:(

That thought crossed my mind when I wrote that.

Many tears were shed last winter just waiting and being told there is still time.:(

Gonzo

i think after last winters disaster peoples expectations of the coming winter will not be as high as they were last winter so the dissapointment wont be as severe if it turns out to be another non-event winter.

bb1234567

Gonzo wrote: »

i think after last winters disaster peoples expectations of the coming winter will not be as high as they were last winter so the dissapointment wont be as severe if it turns out to be another non-event winter.

Well thats right for me anyway, Im not raising my hopes even a little for a cold winter this year..Wont be even a little disappointed if its not cold,the disappointment and waiting last yr was too much for me:pac:

Sea Filly

bb1234567 wrote: »

... and well be stuck in a horrible cycle of cold summers and mild winters forevermore:(

Hello temperate climate!

Gonzo

Sea Filly wrote: »

Hello temperate climate!

in fairness tho I think this temperate climate has gone worse, 'we've had 5 or 6 cold washout summers in a row and this summer looks more of the same, I dont remember such a lengthy run of crap summers during the 80s or 90s.

20silkcut

Gonzo wrote: »

Sea Filly wrote: »

Hello temperate climate!

in fairness tho I think this temperate climate has gone worse, 'we've had 5 or 6 cold washout summers in a row and this summer looks more of the same, I dont remember such a lengthy run of crap summers during the 80s or 90s.

As far as I remember the weather was more flexible (for want of a better word).
Definitely summer weather patterns get much more locked in nowadays. When it starts raining it could rain for weeks.

Back in the 80's 90's and early 00's you could get great weather and crap weather side by side and from week to week.
You could always endure a few days of crap confident that it would pick . High pressure was just around the corner.



That doesn't seem to happen anymore in summer. The highs are miles and miles to the south.
The patterns seem much more locked in.
When it's crap in June it invariablystays crap during July and august.

I am not a meteorologist but some thing has definitely changed since about 2007.

Birdnuts

Gonzo wrote: »

in fairness tho I think this temperate climate has gone worse, 'we've had 5 or 6 cold washout summers in a row and this summer looks more of the same, I dont remember such a lengthy run of crap summers during the 80s or 90s.

Yeah - its a long time now since the last decent one(2006).

Deep Easterly

20silkcut wrote: »

The patterns seem much more locked in.
When it's crap in June it invariablystays crap during July and august.

I am not a meteorologist but some thing has definitely changed since about 2007.

I was actually thinking the same thing the other day, in that the weather patterns over the last few years seem to be getting more 'stuck' or something. Could well be a perception that is influenced by the moment though but the current weather pattern seems to be with us for the last 2 months with little variation. i.e passing occulsions followed by a slackish gradient with a northerly component. Last winter we were stuck under high pressure zonal conditions with very little day to day variation. Last summer, cool polar maritimes on an almost daily basis etc.

I notice though that the only weather pattern not to get stuck are the decent warm ones from the continent! :mad:

20silkcut

Birdnuts wrote: »

Gonzo wrote: »

in fairness tho I think this temperate climate has gone worse, 'we've had 5 or 6 cold washout summers in a row and this summer looks more of the same, I dont remember such a lengthy run of crap summers during the 80s or 90s.

Yeah - its a long time now since the last decent one(2006).

we have a great benchmark between this summer and 2006 with the football in Poland.
I remember watching games during the 2006 world cup played in glorious german summer sunshine and 30 degree heat while outside the window here at home the rain was often pouring (it did not really pick up until July that year)and maybe 15 or 16 degrees. But it does show the fine weather was not that far away.
This summer Poland at roughly the same position as Germany does not seem to be fairing much better than ourselves.
The games in Ukraine seem to have the good weather. But last nights game was a downpour in gdansk.
Interestingly I do not recall much of a weather differential between ourselves and Germany during euro 88. As far as I can remember June 1988 here in Ireland was fairly settled. There was no rain during any of irelands games in Germany in euro 88.
Going back further the 1974 world cup in Germany was a wash out and I believe a bad summer here too.
I know it is foolish to draw parrallells between our weather and that of central Europe but it just seems fine weather is so distant at the moment.
And it is from the continent our heatwaves come.

Sea Filly

Gonzo wrote: »

in fairness tho I think this temperate climate has gone worse, 'we've had 5 or 6 cold washout summers in a row and this summer looks more of the same, I dont remember such a lengthy run of crap summers during the 80s or 90s.

20silkcut wrote: »

As far as I remember the weather was more flexible (for want of a better word).
Definitely summer weather patterns get much more locked in nowadays. When it starts raining it could rain for weeks.

Back in the 80's 90's and early 00's you could get great weather and crap weather side by side and from week to week.
You could always endure a few days of crap confident that it would pick . High pressure was just around the corner.



That doesn't seem to happen anymore in summer. The highs are miles and miles to the south.
The patterns seem much more locked in.
When it's crap in June it invariablystays crap during July and august.

I am not a meteorologist but some thing has definitely changed since about 2007.

Nah, my mother informs me that there was a good few summers in the 1980s where it rained almost literally non-stop. But, yeah, there wasn't such a long consecutive run of terrible summers. But apart from 1995, the 1990s were no great shakes, TBH.

JM Skipton

Most summers I have experienced have been pretty similar the only stand outs were 1985 which was the worst summer I can ever remember 2007 was a close second.
In my memory only 83,84,95 & 2006 have made any impression for long sustained warm periods so we should get another good summer in 2017!

JeffK88

Also 2000 & 2003