Friday 13th

rossom

4.50 Aintree

Orsippus 20/1

Although he isn't without his risks, I think Orsippus looks overpriced in what looks an open race and he looks decently handicapped and ready to strike if on song. Michael Smith's 6 year old was a Grade 1 winner at Aintree in his juvenile season and although he perhaps never reached those heights again he has some other credible efforts to his name and has been competing in much better company than this recently in which he has been outclassed. He races tomorrow off a mark of 136 which looks very manageable considering he beat the talented Barizan and Sanctuaire off level weights by 3.25L and 2.75L respectively when landing his Grade 1.

As well as landing that race, Orsippus put in a fantastic effort at the Cheltenham Festival last year when finishing a fantastic 6.5L beaten 3rd behind Carlito Brigante in the Grade 3 Coral Cup handicap off the same mark over this trip and on similar ground. Although others probably come into the race in better form, Orsippus has run a very encouraging race LTO when beaten less than 10L by Simonsig, although the winner won on the snaff and the winning distance obviously flattered him. However, Orsippus was still travelling very well until the last flight before making a slight mistake before Denis O'Regan nursed him home up the run in. Still, considering the 3 horses in front of him were higher rated and they were racing off level weights if I was connections I'd be pleased with his performance.

Its pretty clear to me that Michael Smith had the same plan this year as he did last year for Orsippus which was to run him in the Coral Cup and this race which he did last year but he didn't get into the Coral Cup this year and I think that could be a blessing in disguise as he'll come here than most of his rivals. Last year in this race, Orsippus was travelling into the race very nicely before getting interfered with about 4 times but he still ran a very decent 9th. I think its very significant that Michael Smith's go to jockey Davy Condon, who has been on Orsippus for all his major races, is booked tomorrow for what is his only ride of the day. Trainer Michael Smith could hardly be in better form, with 3 winners from his last 4 runners (2 flat) and his last two jumpers winning which is a huge plus. I expect Orsippus to be fully wound up and under his very able partner Davy Condon I can see him going close to landing this event at a track where he clearly goes very well.

rossom

7.15 Dundalk

Walk With Destiny FC 25/1

Should get a nice price about this 3 year old debutant given his relatively unknown trainer Frank Dunne but I certainly think this gelding can go close to make a winning introduction. Dunne, a small trainer with only a selective string, appears to be backed by a relatively well off owner in the shape of Miss A H Marshall who seems more than willing to pay a premium price to get some nice horses. For Dunne last year, Marshall had 4 horses who finished the season rated 100, 98, 64 and without a handicap rating yet. The horse without the handicap rating beat an 81 rated horse by 5L on his last start and the horse rated 64, who was close to a 200k purchase, made an extremely promising debut finishing less than 2L behind Misty For Me before not progressing. From this, I gather the owner/trainer combination like operating with high class horses which is an obvious bonus for this one tomorrow.

Walk With Destiny looks pretty well bred, with his half sister and stablemate One Spirit rated 98 who had some pretty solid Listed form. Dunne has actually bred both One Spirit and Walk With Destiny so he clearly knows the family well and I think we can expect this new recruit to be pretty decent. However, breeding is not my strong suit so I can't be entirely sure about this. Tomorrow, Ben Curtis takes the ride and it will be his first time teaming up with Dunne and although he has never had a first time out winner his former horse Prescient was beaten less than 2L on debut and One Spirit was only beaten by 0.25L so I certainly think there is a lot of hope for Walk With Destiny tomorrow. Although the tongue tie on debut is hardly inspiring, I think this 3 year old has a lot in his favour tomorrow and I hope he can spring a bit of a surprise by landing this tomorrow.

NaiveMelodies

Great write ups rossom, keep 'em coming, very informative.

Might dutch your pick with Hazy Tom. Really disappointing few runs from him since the turn of the year, but I think the step up in trip might suit him, I think he's well handicapped, smashed Sea of Thunder by 12 lengths, who's now rated 145, and beat Its A Gimme off level weights at Aintree in the Autumn, so off 135, the 20/1 about Hazy Tom appeals to me more so than the 5s about the fav Its a Gimme off the same mark.
Now he seems to have regressed since those performances, but I'm hoping with new tactics(according to longsdon) and a hopefully more suitable trip, he can repeat some of his early form.

MoscowFlyer

Global Village - 3.30 Leicester.

Im not great with write-ups but I marked this one down when I saw his last run. He was flying through the field only to get bumped which completely stopped him, he even regrouped and ran on again to finish 5th. Without a doubt would have won without the interference. Off the same mark today and Fallon on board, now the ground is on the only question, it was good at Doncaster the last day but it's likely to be softer at Leicester after the rain. If it handles the ground I honestly cannot see him losing, Im that confident.

Edit:- Bah, just checked Bet365 and they have him from 8s into 3s!! Grrrrr

NaiveMelodies

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

Global Village - 3.30 Leicester.

Im not great with write-ups but I marked this one down when I saw his last run. He was flying through the field only to get bumped which completely stopped him, he even regrouped and ran on again to finish 5th. Without a doubt would have won without the interference. Off the same mark today and Fallon on board, now the ground is on the only question, it was good at Doncaster the last day but it's likely to be softer at Leicester after the rain. If it handles the ground I honestly cannot see him losing, Im that confident.

Edit:- Bah, just checked Bet365 and they have him from 8s into 3s!! Grrrrr

One of the Racing commentators(ATR/RUK) mentioned the other day that Ellison himself said to watch out for this one.

BQQ

rossom wrote: »

I think its very significant that Michael Smith's go to jockey Davy Condon, who has been on Orsippus for all his major races, is booked tomorrow for what is his only ride of the day.

He actually has a ride in the Topham too.
I know because I quite fancy it. Gonebeyondrecall - was 4th last year off 6lb higher mark. I expect he's been laid out for it.

finbarrk

But he hasn't run since Listowel. I backed him last year. Probably will again today. Might be a nice ew double with their other lad in the big one!

Nulty

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

Global Village - 3.30 Leicester.

Im not great with write-ups but I marked this one down when I saw his last run. He was flying through the field only to get bumped which completely stopped him, he even regrouped and ran on again to finish 5th. Without a doubt would have won without the interference. Off the same mark today and Fallon on board, now the ground is on the only question, it was good at Doncaster the last day but it's likely to be softer at Leicester after the rain. If it handles the ground I honestly cannot see him losing, Im that confident.

Edit:- Bah, just checked Bet365 and they have him from 8s into 3s!! Grrrrr

He was priced up at 8/1! :pac:

Bet365 fooked that one up

Nulty

only1stevo wrote: »

One of the Racing commentators(ATR/RUK) mentioned the other day that Ellison himself said to watch out for this one.

When Ellison talks about his horses, I listen

Slattsy

Isn't it bad luck to back horses on Friday the 13th!!!!! Ha

Anyway I'm taking a chance on Apt Approach today in the Topham.
Reasoning for this is simple, the form with Follow the Plan from 2 runs ago has worked out magnificently. Obviously been laid of for this race too. Get on !!

Juwwi

Always Waining's form over the National fences is 4-f-1-6-1-4

Five completes out of 6 is very impressive as good as it gets and has won todays race the last 2 years.

looks to have been laid out for this meeting and the fact the connections have choosen this race over the national they must think he will go close
or they would of just took their chance in the big one.
11 now is negative but if l did'nt back him and he won l'd be kicking myself.

TheMilkyPirate

Just done a €1 lucky 15 of Darlan, Finians, Silviniaco and Global village

Moving house today so needed something for a bit of interest.. Also a €1.77 double on It's a gimme and always waining with the spare change

hucklebuck

baraca wrote: »

Just done a €1 lucky 15 of Darlan, Finians, Silviniaco and Global village

Moving house today so needed something for a bit of interest.. Also a €1.77 double on It's a gimme and always waining with the spare change

Good luck with the move man, dont drop any vases!!

Today I have gone for:

200 - Darlan
230 - Champion Court
305 - Albertas
340 - Frankie Figg Ew & Always Waining Ew as cover
415 - Cotton Mill Ew, looked the only potential danger to Simonsig when he tipped up. Looks a bet to nowt.

Away with Mrs Buck and missed all the races yesterday, hoping to see them today!!

samk1

my lucky 15 e/w today DARLAN,FINNIANS,HAZY TOM,DR.MANCINI

long shot but wud pay off nicley

Gautama

5.25 Aintree

Missunited 12/1

UrbanSea

Much as I like Champion Court, don't think he gets three miles.
Don't think Join Together has the speed.
Don't trust Silvianaco Conti.


Think Solix is a good each way bet at about 7/1 for the 2.30. Step up in trip might suit him.

Nulty

No bet but lets hope the best horse in training, Albertas Run, wins the Melling.

longshotvalue

Nulty wrote: »

No bet but lets hope the best horse in training, Albertas Run, wins the Melling.

looks very likely, for some reason im drawn to Kalahari king coming back to form in this.. Dont know why but he has come back from poor runs before.. 42 on betfair..

BQQ

UrbanSea wrote: »

Much as I like Champion Court, don't think he gets three miles.
Don't think Join Together has the speed.
Don't trust Silvianaco Conti.


Think Solix is a good each way bet at about 7/1 for the 2.30. Step up in trip might suit him.

Join together for me. Only horse in the field who's won over 3m or more and gave champion court weight and a beating in December.

NaiveMelodies

I think Champion Court will get the 3 miles here, I think he'll also prove how good sir des champs is aswell. Money coming for join together it appears, does seem a tad overpriced.

Morgans

Champion Court for me as well. Silviniaco Conti has disappointed too many times for me. I'd have the prices the other way round. Champion Court was the only danger to SDC from a long way out at Cheltenham. 9/4 too big.

TheMilkyPirate

Get in!

BQQ

lol, all of us were wrong. Friday the 13th :eek:

Join together put in some poor jumps. champion court didn't stay

Morgans

Good win. Fresh and jumped very well. Always in control. Wouldnt give up on the runner up - Paddy Power type next year maybe.

danbrosnan

do ye not think paddydaplaster has any chance??? Tom coper had two horses win last week!!! maybe he is too old?? at 16/1 its a good bet, no?:D

Alpish

Any tips for the 4:15 Novices Hurdle lads?

Gringo180

danbrosnan wrote: »

do ye not think paddydaplaster has any chance??? Tom coper had two horses win last week!!! maybe he is too old?? at 16/1 its a good bet, no?:D

He was 2nd to Alberta'a Run in this 2 years ago, so he has a good chance on his best form. Went with Kauto Stone myself, dont ask why but I reckon he will run well.

Juwwi

Any taughts on Albertas Run in the next?

Im waiting on him for a nice bet and am wondering whether to back something else problem is I dont fancy the fav its Wishful Thinking I think
is the danger.

Covering my bet with a 10/1 shot isnt in the rule book

danbrosnan

i went withpaddydaplaster only because of the stables form who knows wish me luck!!! 5yoyos to win!!!:D

MoscowFlyer

Did a £7 treble there with Sil Conti (which just won @ 7/4) Alberta's Run @ 9/4 and Global Village @ 11/4.

Fingers crossed!

BQQ

Alpish wrote: »

Any tips for the 4:15 Novices Hurdle lads?

Looks like a no bet race, but if you're a degenerate like me, Knock a hand looks a good each way bet. Won his last 4 staying on well last time indicating there may be more to come over this trip.

UrbanSea

Thank God I didn't put my money where my mouth is.

Went for Wishfull Thinking in the tipping comp

Backstreet Moyes

Alpish wrote: »

Any tips for the 4:15 Novices Hurdle lads?

I have Fingal Bay in my 4 dockets beat Simonsig and looks like a great prospect.

MoscowFlyer

Albertas Run not jumping too good, doesn't look to be travelling great either.

TheMilkyPirate

Woo! 3 out of 4, Horse looks to be still improving

UrbanSea

Showed a good attitude. Very good performance

Alpish

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

Global Village - 3.30 Leicester.

Im not great with write-ups but I marked this one down when I saw his last run. He was flying through the field only to get bumped which completely stopped him, he even regrouped and ran on again to finish 5th. Without a doubt would have won without the interference. Off the same mark today and Fallon on board, now the ground is on the only question, it was good at Doncaster the last day but it's likely to be softer at Leicester after the rain. If it handles the ground I honestly cannot see him losing, Im that confident.

Edit:- Bah, just checked Bet365 and they have him from 8s into 3s!! Grrrrr

Cheers for this, flew home

TheMilkyPirate

baraca wrote: »

Just done a €1 lucky 15 of Darlan, Finians, Silviniaco and Global village

Moving house today so needed something for a bit of interest.. Also a €1.77 double on It's a gimme and always waining with the spare change

GET IN!! Thought fallon was gonna pull global village up was about to turn the stream off! haha yes!

GMROCKS

Little Josh (IRE)

MoscowFlyer

Alpish wrote: »

Cheers for this, flew home

50s in running!!!

What a ride from Fallon. blocked again but still romped home. So much more to come.

Lifting quite a bit from that after it drifted :cool:

Nulty

baraca wrote: »

GET IN!! Thought fallon was gonna pull global village up was about to turn the stream off! haha yes!

Go on, what did it pay?

TheMilkyPirate

Nulty wrote: »

Go on, what did it pay?

Ha, €375.96

It only said 275 when i placed the bet so i'm not sure where the other 100 came out of but i'm not complaining!

MoscowFlyer

You got best odds guaranteed so nice little bump for you . Conti (7/4 from 6/4) and G Village (9/2 from 11/4) both drifted in price.

I always stick a few quid Acc on the 4 runners, Even a stupid quid as it will run you another couple of hundred!

Nulty

Always Waining - Aintree Legend!

premierstone

baraca wrote: »

Ha, €375.96

It only said 275 when i placed the bet so i'm not sure where the other 100 came out of but i'm not complaining!

PaddyPower guarantee prices online in multiples aswell as singles, singles only in the shops AKAIK, three of yours drifted, I know cos I had the same three so that would explain the increased payout.

TheMilkyPirate

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

You got best odds guaranteed so nice little bump for you . Conti (7/4 from 6/4) and G Village (9/2 from 11/4) both drifted in price.

I always stick a few quid Acc on the 4 runners, Even a stupid quid as it will run you another couple of hundred!

I was just about to do it with the spare change, But changed my mind and stuck it on always waining and its a gimme, So waiting on It's a gimme now for another hundred or so

Goldcupfav

Anyone know if Ladbrokes paying 5 places in the Topham (3.40) today ??

Backstreet Moyes

Anybody else burned by Fingal done me for 2 dockets in some bad mood.

BQQ

Aaaaaaagh! Lovcen.

Backed it at Cheltenham when 4th. Deserted him today

Slattsy

Nuts102 wrote: »

Anybody else burned by Fingal done me for 2 dockets in some bad mood.

Burnt?? I'm in ****ing flames here !!!

Juwwi

Goldcupfav wrote: »

Anyone know if Ladbrokes paying 5 places in the Topham (3.40) today ??

Dont think they were online but in the shops they might have been.