Aintree Bowl Thursday

Morgans

This is one from left-field but I think Master of the Hall should be backed at 14/1 for this race on Thursday.

He is the third choice Nicky Henderson horse in the field behind Riverside Theatre and Burton Port, but never underestimate the mark left by cheltenham on an aintree horse and I was ultra impressed with the way Master of the Hall won last time out at Kelso. It may not have been a grade 1 race or a grade 1 performance but it was a sound field and he travelled like a class above them, picking up well and kicking clear in the final furlong. It takes a good horse to kick clear up the Kelso straight and while this is taking on some of the best horses in training, I think 14/1 is a very good price, for a course winner.

http://www.attheraces.com/VideoConsole/?va=KEL_2012_03_03_05_1610

There are stamina doubts about those at the head of the market, as well as a question mark over Burton Port's recovery after the Gold Cup. Horses like DEnman and Imperial Commander have shown how dangerous it is to take Gold Cup form here.

I promised myself that I would back Master of The Hall wherever he went next after the Kelso race, and see enough reasons to back him at 14/1 in this.

hucklebuck

Morgans wrote: »

This is one from left-field but I think Master of the Hall should be backed at 14/1 for this race on Thursday.

He is the third choice Nicky Henderson horse in the field behind Riverside Theatre and Burton Port, but never underestimate the mark left by cheltenham on an aintree horse and I was ultra impressed with the way Master of the Hall won last time out at Kelso. It may not have been a grade 1 race or a grade 1 performance but it was a sound field and he travelled like a class above them, picking up well and kicking clear in the final furlong. It takes a good horse to kick clear up the Kelso straight and while this is taking on some of the best horses in training, I think 14/1 is a very good price, for a course winner.

http://www.attheraces.com/VideoConsole/?va=KEL_2012_03_03_05_1610

There are stamina doubts about those at the head of the market, as well as a question mark over Burton Port's recovery after the Gold Cup. Horses like DEnman and Imperial Commander have shown how dangerous it is to take Gold Cup form here.

I promised myself that I would back Master of The Hall wherever he went next after the Kelso race, and see enough reasons to back him at 14/1 in this.

Couldn't agree more, just posted that in our Punchestown discussion, B365 are NRNB for it.

He galloped lumps out of Nacarat earlier in the season and always seemed to have plenty left in the locker at the end of his races.

Colonel Sanders

16/1 with Coral & 21 on Betfair

My usual idea is to oppose gold cup horses in this but Burton Port won here as a novice after a tough race in the RSA (I thought he was going to be pulled up at around half way)

Morgans

Yeah, have taken 16s again - cos of each way.

His jumping could be the sticking point, but I havent seen a horse idle as badly as he did when winning at the course in the autumn. Tons in hand that day. I think he should be about a 6/1 shot.

longshotvalue

Im getting pretty convinced about What a Friend . Cheltenham horses need to be opposed here, and 11/1 is beginning to look value. He isnt that far behind the best of them this year, and fell early in the gold cup (hopefully he has fully recovered)

I just realised he won this before :eek:..

Morgans

Want to hear my impression of What A Friend??


Woof, Woof.

longshotvalue

Morgans wrote: »

Want to hear my impression of What A Friend??


Woof, Woof.

Not much differant myself, but really he has been a consistantly decent horse and his last run behind long run was very good really.. It just looks to me like tomorrows race could be setup nicely for him with alot of horses tired from the festival. im thinking 1 What a Freind, 2 Nacarat, 3 Medermit.

Open to changing my mind yet tough.

hucklebuck

aidankkk wrote: »

Morgans wrote: »

Want to hear my impression of What A Friend??


Woof, Woof.

Not much differant myself, but really he has been a consistantly decent horse and his last run behind long run was very good really.. It just looks to me like tomorrows race could be setup nicely for him with alot of horses tired from the festival. im thinking 1 What a Freind, 2 Nacarat, 3 Medermit.

Open to changing my mind yet tough.

I would have gone oink oink!

Swap What A Friend for Master Of The Hall, cant trust Nacarat, for some reason he seems to empty like a rusty bath yet other times he seems to see it out better, Master Of The Hall made a show of him you should watch that before doing anything imo.

Gringo180

Hunt Ball for me in this, won a decent race last time out carrying 12 stone and won with a bit in his locker. The step up to 3 miles is sure to suit.

Nulty

Morgans wrote: »

Want to hear my impression of What A Friend??


Woof, Woof.

:pac:

Hulk Hands

I'm of the opinion that these handicap sensations need to keep being backed until they finally get beaten. Hunt ball has beaten the handicapper and made it to graded company. The steps up in trip could bring further improvement. While the other Cheltenham runners may be affected, quick returns s have had little effect on hunt ball all year

ipitydafool

What Hunt Ball has done this year has been magnificent and he deserves a shot in graded company but I think the price he is at, 6's is too short especially given he is unproven over the trip and the opposition he faces.

Huntley

Master of the Hall ran away from a bunch of Grand National horses at Kelso, nothing special about it in the slightest.

I don't know how good Hunt Ball is but I wouldn't be taking a chance at the price.

Morgans

Huntley wrote: »

Master of the Hall ran away from a bunch of Grand National horses at Kelso, nothing special about it in the slightest.

I don't know how good Hunt Ball is but I wouldn't be taking a chance at the price.

The horse is 16/1. Not an odds on shot. He has beaten Nacarat by 22l - who is half is price and he is rated the same as Hunt Ball at half his price. I think he is a value ew bet. Of course, you are more than welcome not to take a chance on it, but your persuasive arguements havent done anything to change my mind.

Huntley

Morgans wrote: »

The horse is 16/1. Not an odds on shot. He has beaten Nacarat by 22l - who is half is price and he is rated the same as Hunt Ball at half his price. I think he is a value ew bet. Of course, you are more than welcome not to take a chance on it, but your persuasive arguements havent done anything to change my mind.

I'm not trying to change your mind, nor have I even mentioned value because that is a relative term.

You gave a glowing reference of his Kelso performance which exaggerated what he actually beat. I was merely highlighting that he ran away from a bunch of Grand National horses and their was nothing special about it.

Morgans

Huntley wrote: »

I'm not trying to change your mind, nor have I even mentioned value because that is a relative term.

You gave a glowing reference of his Kelso performance which exaggerated what he actually beat. I was merely highlighting that he ran away from a bunch of Grand National horses and their was nothing special about it.

Well said Huntley. If you think this is glowing...

It may not have been a grade 1 race or a grade 1 performance but it was a sound field and he travelled like a class above them, picking up well and kicking clear in the final furlong.

Huntley

Morgans wrote: »

Well said Huntley. If you think this is glowing...

It may not have been a grade 1 race or a grade 1 performance but it was a sound field and he travelled like a class above them, picking up well and kicking clear in the final furlong.

I thought it would be pretty obvious aswell but you seem to have failed to mention that in your initial analysis of the race.

He beat a couple of handicappers that all wanted an extra half mile at least. The performance simply doesn't warrant the praise that you are giving it.

Morgans

Huntley wrote: »

I thought it would be pretty obvious aswell but you seem to have failed to mention that in your initial analysis of the race.

He beat a couple of handicappers that all wanted an extra half mile at least. The performance simply doesn't warrant the praise that you are giving it.

Try reading the opening post again. The above was a quote. Try reading before imagining what was written. It helps make sense.

Huntley

Morgans wrote: »

Try reading the opening post again. The above was a quote. Try reading before imagining what was written. It helps make sense.

I did read it. Did you mention that he beat a bunch of handicappers who wanted a half a mile further at least?

Morgans

No. It wasn't what I took from the race. Come back to me when you put up a 50/1 winner on here. Or 7/1 winner this week, and a 12/1 ante post bet for cheltenham.

I'll stick to my methods. I hope you succeed with your methods. It would be great if you could show them to us before race.

What would your recommended bet be? Not Hunt Ball or Master of the Hall.

hucklebuck

Huntley wrote: »

I did read it. Did you mention that he beat a bunch of handicappers who wanted a half a mile further at least?

I can't see how that bears any relevance to what Morgans said, he gave his reasons for Master Of The Hall being value.

Are you ignoring his easily done hammering of Nacarat at Aintree to pick holes in the Kelso run?

If you bet in this race on the racing post app and your horse comes second they will refund you up to €50/ £50 by way of a free bet.

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/special-app-bet-offer-for-day-one-of-aintree/1013939/top/

Huntley

Morgans wrote: »

No. It wasn't what I took from the race. Come back to me when you put up a 50/1 winner on here. Or 7/1 winner this week, and a 12/1 ante post bet for cheltenham.

Pretty pathetic that this is what you revert to because I simply highlighted that your praise of his Kelso win was exaggerated.

Morgans wrote: »

I'll stick to my methods. I hope you succeed with your methods.

I never suggested you change your methods nor do I give a hoot what they are.

Morgans wrote: »

It would be great if you could show them to us before race.

I have always put up my selections for people to view. I'm not afraid to be criticised nor do I get my knickers in a twist if someone wants to highlight a piece of analysis that I may have overlooked.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056453603

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056560001

Hulk Hands

Master of the hall available at 20's now e/w.

While I put up Hunt Ball earlier, I was disappointed to see him at a general 11/2 when I checked later on. I still fancy him, but am also starting to warm to What a Friend having won this race before and having no hard race at Cheltenham. If I can get 7's and 9's respectively on them i'll probably go down the route of dutching, leaving a price of 7/2 or so.

totothejuggler

Any one wanna give a someone who doesnt have much of a clue about racing a tip for this race, i backed riverside theatre at Cheltenham, but dono if to do so again, thanks

Morgans

Huntley wrote: »

I have always put up my selections for people to view. I'm not afraid to be criticised nor do I get my knickers in a twist if someone wants to highlight a piece of analysis that I may have overlooked.

No. I dont get why you think I overlooked it when I stated it in the OP that it wasnt a great race, but he looked good doing it. I said that it was the way he won that made me suggest I would back him wherever he ran next. (I thought it would be at Ayr at a lot shorter price) But in a grade 1, I was happy to take 14/1 about him. That's in my analysis.

If you were to say that his form is in small fields, and Tinkler is a poor jockey, they would have been valid crticisms, but criticising my analysis based on something that I had alluded to, is just keyboard warrioring and an attempt to look smart.

For me, criticising a 14/1 - 16/1 - 20/1 "tip" is the same as trying to look smart saying a 1/14 1/16 or 1/20 shot is a likely winner. Easily done and easily to look clever after the fact. Pathetic or not, I'm happy with the methods I use to select horses, and I've been happy to share them here, for better or worse.

Huntley

Morgans wrote: »

but criticising my analysis based on something that I had alluded to

Incorrect. You suggested that it wasn't Grade 1 standard but he beat a "sound field".

I criticised your analysis of this race because you didn't allude to the fact that the opposition needed half a mile further at least. You made it out to be a pretty special performance regardless of the opposition, when it was nothing of the sort.

I never criticised your tip or selection. I merely said that you had exaggerated his previous win and it had come across like you hadn't taken account of all the variables, which you self admittedly said you hadn't.

Morgans wrote: »

No. It wasn't what I took from the race.

I don't think there is any relevance in continuing this tedious discussion, I highlighted something in your analysis and you can make of it what you will.

Morgans

Huntley wrote: »

Incorrect. You suggested that it wasn't Grade 1 standard but he beat a "sound field".

I criticised your analysis of this race because you didn't allude to the fact that the opposition needed half a mile further at least. You made it out to be a pretty special performance regardless of the opposition, when it was nothing of the sort.

I never criticised your tip or selection. I merely said that you had exaggerated his previous win and it had come across like you hadn't taken account of all the variables, which you self admittedly said you hadn't.

I said it wasnt a grade 1 performance in black and white.

When did I say that I didn't take into account all the variables?

Im intrigued what you are reading in my posts.

Morgans

And if you want to question analysis, on your thread you have linked there - well done on Askanna - fine bet.

You have stated that on the AON run with Long Run, 4l defeat getting 10lbs, What A Friend would have been bang there in the Gold Cup, when he would be 15l behind Long Run. Just ahead of Knockara Beau. Dont know if you have missed that in your analysis.

Well done on posting up your analysis beforehand. Best of luck with it.

Huntley

Morgans wrote: »

When did I say that I didn't take into account all the variables?

Im intrigued what you are reading in my posts.

Maybe your eyes are deceiving you.

Morgans wrote: »

It may not have been a grade 1 race or a grade 1 performance but it was a sound field and he travelled like a class above them, picking up well and kicking clear in the final furlong.

Huntley wrote: »

He beat a couple of handicappers that all wanted an extra half mile at least. The performance simply doesn't warrant the praise that you are giving it.

Morgans wrote: »

Try reading the opening post again. The above was a quote. Try reading before imagining what was written. It helps make sense.

Huntley wrote: »

I did read it. Did you mention that he beat a bunch of handicappers who wanted a half a mile further at least?

Morgans wrote: »

No. It wasn't what I took from the race.

I questioned whether you acknowledged that the opposition needed at least a half a mile further. You self admittedly said, "No. It wasn't what I took from the race".

Taking account of the opposition is a key part of race analysis. The fact you said you didn't acknowledge that the field wanted half a mile further is not taking account of all the variables.

Morgans

I understood that it was a grand national prep. I understand that it was the same race that Ballabriggs won last year. I know what Kelso is like as a racecourse also. I am aware of the variables. You seem to think that you are aware of this more.

However, knowing these variabale, being aware of the variables, understanding these variables, I was still impressed with the way Master of the Hall travelled all over them, and when asked picked up and put 3 to 4l between him and the opposition in the matter of strides. What I took from the race was that even though the race wasnt a grade 1, it showed to me that a) he was in rude health b) that he is a classy animal when things go his way c) that he is a horse to be followed even in better races.

I also think horses like Ballabriggs could run well in a soft ground grade 1. In the same way Hedgehunter and Synchronised have done, but thats a different discussion.

Huntley

Morgans wrote: »

You have stated that on the AON run with Long Run, 4l defeat getting 10lbs, What A Friend would have been bang there in the Gold Cup, when he would be 15l behind Long Run. Just ahead of Knockara Beau. Dont know if you have missed that in your analysis.

I didn't miss it, rather that I think Long Run ran well below par in the Gold Cup and a formline with the Giant Bolster would put What A Friend right up there in the Gold Cup. Nice try though.

If you want to discuss my selections further please do so in my log, that's why it is there.

Morgans

Had he run to form with Burton Port or Long Run in the Gold Cup, he would have finished behind both again, ahead of Knockara Beau. I think its generally accepted that The Giant Bolster ran well in excess of anything he had done previously in the Gold Cup. Interesting to take him running to the same level in both races.

This is also a discussion on the same race.

Huntley

Morgans wrote: »

Interesting to take him running to the same level in both races.

As interesting as you have Long Run running to his mark in the Gold Cup.

It's all perception really, I think Long Run ran below form in the Gold Cup and if you take a line through The Giant Bolster then WAF would have been in the mix. I also think WAF is far more suited by the stiffer conditions in the Gold Cup. I'm not sure what part of that analysis you disagree with, but I took account of all the variables and came to a conclusion. You should try that sometime.

Now, as I said, if you want to discuss my selections further than you can do so in my log. I don't want to clog up this thread further with your mindless tit for tat arguments.

Morgans

I think Long Run ran pretty much to the same standard all year long this year. He may have been less 2-3lbs here and there, but nothing too major. He has been consistent. Consistenly below last year as well. He gave Burton Port 10l and a 1/2l beating at Newbury equating to a 11l defeat off level weights (using 1l to 1lbs most commonly used) He beat Burton Port by 6l in the Gold Cup.

Cant see any evidence why Cheltenham would have improved What A Friend. Its definitely not based on any formbook evidence. When he won this race two years ago, he avoid cheltenham to run her fresh. He has always been best on flat tracks - Aintree, Newbury, Leoparstown Uttoxeter. He has more than once looked very irresolute in a finish - vs Denman at Newbury especially, vs Noland at Newbury and when winning this race two years ago.

With regard to his chances tomorrow, and you are not alone in fancying him, if there is anything that is going for him, it is the fact that he is on a flat track with an easy finish and he might have one of his going days. I personally avoid the horse like the plague, even though I thought he was a star in the making the day he beat Carruthers in his first novice chase. He could turn up in form, come upsides the leader at the last, and throw his head in the air.

Hulk Hands

No bet for me now. Had a look there and the most appealing one at the prices was Riverside at 4's. I think changing your mind three times is indication enough to steer clear.

hucklebuck

Master Of The Hall is now widely available at 16/1, still 21 on exchange, there may be even more value in him later

hucklebuck

I think I found some great value, Tidal Bay w/o Big Bucks is 5/1 in the first, he is third highest rated, he has been off for 55 days unlike Smad Place and should go well.

Gonna do ew at 25/1 too.

Nulty

Burton Port (like the horse) to win...if not Hunt Ball (like the owner), please.

Gringo180

hucklebuck wrote: »

I think I found some great value, Tidal Bay w/o Big Bucks is 5/1 in the first, he is third highest rated, he has been off for 55 days unlike Smad Place and should go well.

Gonna do ew at 25/1 too.

I was looking at that myself but this horse is such a monkey you couldn't trust him, I'm actually looking at Nicholls other runner Poungach for each way value, I reckon he will improve for the step up in trip.

I Don't wanna jinx Huntball but I reckon this horse is the real deal.


Did anybody do a bet in the Juvenile Hurdle race?

Goldcupfav

hucklebuck wrote: »

I think I found some great value, Tidal Bay w/o Big Bucks is 5/1 in the first, he is third highest rated, he has been off for 55 days unlike Smad Place and should go well.

Gonna do ew at 25/1 too.

Done the same kind of bet gone for Restless Harry at 13/2 with Lads ew. Think the small field and the flat track will suit him alot better then top weight and Cheltenham last time out.

Would love to see Hunt Ball win today.

Huntley

Tidal Bay is one of those clever horses who does what he wants and not what we want him to do.

Johner

Hunt Ball is a shocking price at 5/1.

Nulty

Johner wrote: »

Hunt Ball is a shocking price at 5/1.

It looks that way right now but we might not be saying that after the race

ForeverYoung90

What A Friend 8/1 GET ON IT!

TheMilkyPirate

Don't want to win: Diamond harry

Want to win: Hunt ball, Medermit

No bets for me just going to enjoy the race.

TheMilkyPirate

Theres a turn up, Travelled very well, What a run from hunt ball! Didn't stay?

Gringo180

baraca wrote: »

Theres a turn up, Travelled very well, What a run from hunt ball! Didn't stay?

I reckon he stayed on quite well just beaten by better horses on the day, he's a serious Gold Cup horse for next year.

Morgans

Immediate reaction.

Great piece of placing, great piece of training and great ride on the winner.

Hunt Ball. Astounding improvement all year. Think he is at the upper end of his stamina in a grade 1. The King George would be on the cards though. Gut telling me he will be in the ryanair rather than the Gold Cup next year.

Master of The Hall - Nothing of a race. Ultimately not good enough, and may be a better horse carrying weight in handicaps. Think he has still scope to win a good race before the end of the year. Ayr would be my choice, but this was too much.

Medermit is a very hard horse to get right. No matter what trip he looks outpaced before running on.

Diamond Harry and What A Friend are gone.

Nulty

Fair dues to Oliver McKiernan. His horses are very underrated. He knicks a few the market says he doesn't deserve

ste2010

If I've ever seen a reason to give up gambling on racing it was in this race today

Nulty

ste2010 wrote: »

If I've ever seen a reason to give up gambling on racing it was in this race today

Really? Why?