Epsom Derby

Gringo180

Whats everybodies fancy for The Derby lads, I really think Born To Sea will win this if he makes it to Epsom, he's 16/1 with P.P at the moment.

Won his debut in listed company then was narrowly beaten in Group company on only his second start, and was found to be lame after that race :eek:

Camelot is the obvious danger, but I feel John Oxx's charge has huge potential.

UrbanSea

People are hyping this horse up understandably, but even with Urban Sea's stamina influence, not a hope in hell do I see him getting a mile and a half.

Gringo180

UrbanSea wrote: »

People are hyping this horse up understandably, but even with Urban Sea's stamina influence, not a hope in hell do I see him getting a mile and a half.

I thought he was a full brother to Sea The Stars, just looking its seems there only half brothers

UrbanSea

Sorry,I meant to say even with Urban Sea's stamina influence I don't see him getting a mile and a half by Invincible Spirit

hucklebuck

UrbanSea wrote: »

Sorry,I meant to say even with Urban Sea's stamina influence I don't see him getting a mile and a half by Invincible Spirit

I would not completely write it off, there is stamina on Invinsible Spirits side too off his grandsire Kris.

UrbanSea

Yet to have a group winner past ten furlongs

HigginsJ

An Aidan O'Brien horse!!

Look he has to win it eventually. He'll win majority of all the derby trials in the build up and will have prob 5 runners in the race. This year is his year.

Gringo180

HigginsJ wrote: »

An Aidan O'Brien horse!!

Look he has to win it eventually. He'll win majority of all the derby trials in the build up and will have prob 5 runners in the race. This year is his year.

Eventually? He's won it already.........

hucklebuck

UrbanSea wrote: »

Yet to have a group winner past ten furlongs

Who?

Invincible Spirits progeny have a strike rate of over 24% in races from 7f - 14f, not sure group winners makes any odds to that stat.

hucklebuck

HigginsJ wrote: »

Look he has to win it eventually.

....and listen he is the best horse I have ever trained and look he has lots of natural speed :pac:

tryfix

There are so many Irish trained horses fancied in the betting for the Epsom Derby, that I think Bonfire is the only English trained horse under 25/1 or so. There has to be a promising maiden winner from Stoute/Gosden, Haggis or one of those trainers that usually have the ability to win a big race. 33/1 or so must be available on these promising horses. Any of you got names to check out? Mr Fabre or one of the other French trainers may take another crack at it as well. All suggestions are welcome.

UrbanSea

hucklebuck wrote: »

Who?

Invincible Spirits progeny have a strike rate of over 24% in races from 7f - 14f, not sure group winners makes any odds to that stat.

Invincible Spirit.

I would argue that it'd be important, he'd be doing well to break his duck as a sire in middle distance group races by winning a Derby

hucklebuck

UrbanSea wrote: »

Invincible Spirit.

I would argue that it'd be important, he'd be doing well to break his duck as a sire in middle distance group races by winning a Derby

Not for me, if his progeny have a good record over the distance that bodes well. I doubt he has had progeny of the quality of Born To Sea trying 12f yet.

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

Invincible Spirit.

I would argue that it'd be important, he'd be doing well to break his duck as a sire in middle distance group races by winning a Derby

There's a world of difference between the stamina and class required to win the top Gp1 middle distance races and that required for lesser races. Invincible Spirit had the winner of the Prix Du Jockey Club over 11f. The colt Lawman had a speedier dam line than Born To Sea. So given the stamina and class influence of Urban Sea there is a fair chance of Born To Sea staying the trip, if and it's a very big if he's good enough.


I'd be more concerned with the horses well being than it's pedigree, the first run was awesome, the second looked like he's a horse with problems. If any trainer can overcome those problems John Oxx is the one. I would think that if he finishes in the frame in the 2,000 Guineas or goes and wins a Derby Trial he would be a serious contender for Epsom. For lightning to strike three times for Urban Sea in the Derby would be pushing things a bit and for that reason I wouldn't get overexcited by Born To Sea until he has shown a bit more.

Hasn't John Oxx indicated that he sees the horse as a miler?

UrbanSea

Is the Jockey Club not a 10furlong race? I'm not sure what Oxx said to be honest, I know he said he was lame after his defeat second time out, I think Nephrite is a very good horse though.

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

Is the Jockey Club not a 10furlong race? I'm not sure what Oxx said to be honest, I know he said he was lame after his defeat second time out, I think Nephrite is a very good horse though.

It says 11f in the racing post but I think it's really 10 1/2f, not quite the same as 12f around Epsom but Danehill managed to produce a Derby winner despite being seen as an influence for speed earlier in his career. It's hard to know, I put more stock in the dam as a stamina influence than the sire.

What do you make of these two horses chances for the Derby?

Jungle Beat : John Gosden.

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=789742#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form

Swedish Sailor: Mahmood Al Zarooni. Would need to supplemented. EDIT: was supplemented today along with Manadean, Kesampour, Main sequence and John Oxx's Akeed Mofeed who is now 2nd Fav for the race.

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=796114#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form

UrbanSea

Ah yeah, just looked there, 1 mile 2 furlongs 110 yards.

Jungle Beat I liked the look of when he won his maiden. Hard to know about the form in behind, but the second was sent off the 5/2 fav in the Champagne Stakes so he must be well thought of and won twice after. I'd like to see him have a run before the Derby though, I see he wasn't entered in the Dante though he'll hardly send a maiden winner to the Derby.


Really like the look of Swedish Sailor. I literally read five minutes ago he has been entered for the Irish Derby too at the latest entries.

http://www.irishracing.com/v5newsitem?prid=59921

tryfix

Here's a list of the Dante entries for anyone that's interested, the winner of the Derby is most likely on that list. I like Gosden's Shantaram and Mandaean for Godolphin. There are some fancy prices available now that will disappear fairly quickly once the season gets going.

http://www.timeform.com/godolphin/gd_entries.asp?coursecode=62&selectdate=1120517&racenumber=1

HigginsJ

Gringo180 wrote: »

Eventually? He's won it already.........

Yea but its 10years (or thereabouts) since he has last won it. Despite having numerous placed horses. Wouldnt surprise if when he does end the drought it comes in the form of an Irish Derbyesque 1-2-3.

Gringo180

Andrew Balding has an interesting sort in Bonfire running in the Dante could be one to watch in the Derby market

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=784861#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form

tryfix

Gringo180 wrote: »

Andrew Balding has an interesting sort in Bonfire running in the Dante could be one to watch in the Derby market

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=784861#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form

His Saint Cloud conqueror French Fifteen won the Prix Djebl today, so the form is holding up and his sire is looking top notch as well.

UrbanSea

I see there were some supplements today at 8k a pop, Swedish Sailor got one tryfix

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/newmarket-guineas-epsom-derby-bonfire-french-fifteen-akeed-mofeed-second-favourite-for-the-derby/1011014/top/

As well as Akeed Mofeed, Mandaen, Kesampur and Main Sequence

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

I see there were some supplements today at 8k a pop, Swedish Sailor got one tryfix

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/newmarket-guineas-epsom-derby-bonfire-french-fifteen-akeed-mofeed-second-favourite-for-the-derby/1011014/top/

As well as Akeed Mofeed, Mandaen, Kesampur and Main Sequence

It's a strange market with Akeed Mofeed second in the betting despite disappointing last time and the now Godolphin trained GP1 winning juvenile Manadaean at 25/1. The vibes must be good from John Oxx's yard.

UrbanSea

Most of Dubawi's so far have been better as three year olds, and Oxx's horses are always respected, he doesn't send horses to England for every group 1.

I know the Beresford is a sign of a stamina horse for the next year, but does Dubawi really get mile and a half horses? Off the top of my head Fox Hunt jumps out as middle distance, but Makfi,Poet's Voice,Monterosso, Hunter's Light,Worthadd all get 10furlongs at the furthest. Can't really find anything on the dam apart from her being by Tiger Hill

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

Ah yeah, just looked there, 1 mile 2 furlongs 110 yards.

Jungle Beat I liked the look of when he won his maiden. Hard to know about the form in behind, but the second was sent off the 5/2 fav in the Champagne Stakes so he must be well thought of and won twice after. I'd like to see him have a run before the Derby though, I see he wasn't entered in the Dante though he'll hardly send a maiden winner to the Derby.


Really like the look of Swedish Sailor. I literally read five minutes ago he has been entered for the Irish Derby too at the latest entries.

http://www.irishracing.com/v5newsitem?prid=59921

Jungle Beat is in the Feilden stakes tomorrow at Newmarket. It's a nice little race with some promising looking types.

hucklebuck

I think it is very telling that Mr Oxx is campaigning him very similar to Sea The Stars, my only concern is the soundness of the horse, off memory his first run last year was delayed due to a leg problem.

He was found lame after only just being beaten by Nephrite, the way Born To Sea won his first race was the way a top class horse wins their races.

UrbanSea

Interesting that Frankie rides Gold Rally tomorrow in a conditions race ahead of Swedish Sailor.

Gold Rally 66/1 for the Derby, Swedish Sailor 25/1

UrbanSea

Frankie jumps ship from Swedish Sailor again, interesting. http://www.irishracing.com/cards/v5card027201205051655.htm

Slattsy

UrbanSea wrote: »

Frankie jumps ship from Swedish Sailor again, interesting. http://www.irishracing.com/cards/v5card027201205051655.htm

Hmmmm.
Imo I don't think Frankie is numero uno with Godolphin anymore.

UrbanSea

Don't think there's anything to suggest that he isn't. He rode all the better fancied horses World Cup night, it was him on the Godolphin horses in the listed and Group 3 yesterday

RichieLawlor

Slattsy wrote: »

Hmmmm.
Imo I don't think Frankie is numero uno with Godolphin anymore.

Lol you be crazy, Frankie is the boys in blues golden boy

tryfix

Kesampour, winner of saturdays GP2 Prix Greffuhle is my idea of a nice outsider for Epsom. Mikel Delzanges his trainer sent over Hermival to take 3rd in the 2,000 Guineas and Dunaden who finished 3rd in the Jockey Club Cup. If he sends Kesampour over I'll definitely be having a bet on him.

Nulty

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Lol you be crazy, Frankie is the boys in blues golden boy

I think there is a strange. almost equal, jockey hierarchy at Godolphin now. Frankie used to be number one - no questions asked, I think Barzalona and De Sousa are getting the better ride from time to time.

He is not the undisputed number one. Dettori has a few years left in him. Remember he wasn't riding that much and someone made a joke about him being a retirred jockey on A Question of Sport? I don't think he has as much hunger as he used to. I'm not saying he's not as good as he used to be - that would be silly. It just looks like they are preparing for him to retire. Whether thats in 2, 5 or 8 years I don't know.

UrbanSea

Astrology is a big priced horse I like for this. Goes tomorrow at Chester, heavy ground is a concern, but I fancy him to beat Bonfire, 40/1 could be big this time tomorrow.

UrbanSea

Model Pupil at 90 on BF is very big too, has to be supplemented but I did fancy him today and he was still a bit green.

the groutch

UrbanSea wrote: »

Astrology is a big priced horse I like for this. Goes tomorrow at Chester, heavy ground is a concern, but I fancy him to beat Bonfire, 40/1 could be big this time tomorrow.

I backed him antepost after his maiden win at Leopardstown, thought it was a dead bet til Wednesday when I saw him declared for this.
If he wins with anything in hand he'll probably go 2nd favorite for Epsom

d-gal

the groutch wrote: »

UrbanSea wrote: »

Astrology is a big priced horse I like for this. Goes tomorrow at Chester, heavy ground is a concern, but I fancy him to beat Bonfire, 40/1 could be big this time tomorrow.

I backed him antepost after his maiden win at Leopardstown, thought it was a dead bet til Wednesday when I saw him declared for this.
If he wins with anything in hand he'll probably go 2nd favorite for Epsom

I'd question him going 2nd fav especially with the ground today. If Akeed mofeed runs Sunday and wins his price will be cut in half. Very well thought of by Oxx and we no Oxx doesn't shout much about his horses unless they're the real deal.
Personally think bonfire is overated and astrology does look a good bet today

UrbanSea

Bonfire is out, it'll be disappointing if he doesn't win this. I'm backing him for the Derby today

Pinesky

Hope the exams are going well for Urban & Rossom could do with another classic Rossom write up

sting60

Strictly as a breeding exercise It would make no sence in running Camelot in the Derby.Coolmore have plenty of Derby winners at stud and this confinds potential breeders to which type of mare is brought to that stallion.A stoutly bred mare would only go to a 1 1/2 classic winner to go the NH route.Im thinking Camelot might get a mysterious injury to retire him as a classic one mile undefeated stallion.Im sure Ballydoyle have plenty of ammo for the Derby as it seems the English are not up to standard on what we have seen so far. The top english trial for the Derby is the Dante at York which has 24 entries from Ballydoyle.

d-gal

sting60 wrote: »

Strictly as a breeding exercise It would make no sence in running Camelot in the Derby.Coolmore have plenty of Derby winners at stud and this confinds potential breeders to which type of mare is brought to that stallion.A stoutly bred mare would only go to a 1 1/2 classic winner to go the NH route.Im thinking Camelot might get a mysterious injury to retire him as a classic one mile undefeated stallion.Im sure Ballydoyle have plenty of ammo for the Derby as it seems the English are not up to standard on what we have seen so far. The top english trial for the Derby is the Dante at York which has 24 entries from Ballydoyle.

I reckon might go and win the Irish guineas and then retire. Not worth the risk of going for the derby. As you said they have plenty of ammo and the English are very poor.

Slattsy

sting60 wrote: »

Strictly as a breeding exercise It would make no sence in running Camelot in the Derby.Coolmore have plenty of Derby winners at stud and this confinds potential breeders to which type of mare is brought to that stallion.A stoutly bred mare would only go to a 1 1/2 classic winner to go the NH route.Im thinking Camelot might get a mysterious injury to retire him as a classic one mile undefeated stallion.Im sure Ballydoyle have plenty of ammo for the Derby as it seems the English are not up to standard on what we have seen so far. The top english trial for the Derby is the Dante at York which has 24 entries from Ballydoyle.

Totally disagree with you here.
A guineas and Derby winner for Coolmore is possibly the perfect stallion.

Also, Coolmore don't have plenty of English Derby winners. They have
only Galileo, High Chap, and Pour Moi. Only Galileo is proven to be top class so far. I'm sure HC will get more winners in time but he's hardly prolific. Obviously PM is too early to speak of.

Imhof Tank

sting60 wrote: »

Strictly as a breeding exercise It would make no sence in running Camelot in the Derby.Coolmore have plenty of Derby winners at stud and this confinds potential breeders to which type of mare is brought to that stallion.A stoutly bred mare would only go to a 1 1/2 classic winner to go the NH route.Im thinking Camelot might get a mysterious injury to retire him as a classic one mile undefeated stallion.Im sure Ballydoyle have plenty of ammo for the Derby as it seems the English are not up to standard on what we have seen so far. The top english trial for the Derby is the Dante at York which has 24 entries from Ballydoyle.

Sure that would put Camelot in the same category as such as Footstepsinthesand - hardly one to shape the future of the whole operation.

The profile they want imo is the multiple G1 winning miler/ 10f horses such as Giants Causeway; preferably at 3 and 4yo.

If they do go for the Derby with Camelot, I could certainly see him then reverting to 10f as opposed to the Irish Derby/ King Goerge/ Arc route.

sting60

UrbanSea wrote: »

I see there were some supplements today at 8k a pop, Swedish Sailor got one tryfix

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/newmarket-guineas-epsom-derby-bonfire-french-fifteen-akeed-mofeed-second-favourite-for-the-derby/1011014/top/

As well as Akeed Mofeed, Mandaen, Kesampur and Main Sequence

Akeed Mofeed wont run.

UrbanSea

Pinesky wrote: »

Hope the exams are going well for Urban & Rossom could do with another classic Rossom write up

Cheers Pinesky, not going bad.

d-gal wrote: »

I reckon might go and win the Irish guineas and then retire. Not worth the risk of going for the derby. As you said they have plenty of ammo and the English are very poor.

I think there is zero chance of him going for the Irish Guineas

sting60

Imhof Tank wrote: »

Sure that would put Camelot in the same category as such as Footstepsinthesand - hardly one to shape the future of the whole operation.

The profile they want imo is the multiple G1 winning miler/ 10f horses such as Giants Causeway; preferably at 3 and 4yo.

If they do go for the Derby with Camelot, I could certainly see him then reverting to 10f as opposed to the Irish Derby/ King Goerge/ Arc route.

Im only guessing .Putting 24 entries in for the Dante goes to show how many potential stayers they have.[record entry from one stable]

UrbanSea

Akeed Mofeed out of the Derby. But will go for the Irish Guineas,even though it's on before it?

http://www.irishracing.com/v5newsitem?prid=60722

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

Akeed Mofeed out of the Derby. But will go for the Irish Guineas,even though it's on before it?

http://www.irishracing.com/v5newsitem?prid=60722

I seem to remember Bolger doing something similar with New Approach until he came out well out of the Irish Guineas. Oxx is a much more orthodox trainer than Bolger, but if the horse runs well in the Irish 2,000 guineas who knows.

At this stage it's very hard to look beyond Camelot or another O'Brien horse, although the lessons to be learned from Entrepreneur, Refuse To Bend and King Of Kings is that Sadlers Wells line Colts that win the 2,000 Guineas are far from sure things when it comes to Epsom.

At this stage whatever wins the Dante or something like Kesampour from France would be the dangers. Imperial Monarch is a really nice type and Jim Bolgers Parish Hall shouldn't be left out of considerations.

the groutch

Astrology won well there, even if it wasn't the toughest opposition.
should enjoy the step up to 12f, and even the 20's available now is still a good bet

tryfix

the groutch wrote: »

Astrology won well there, even if it wasn't the toughest opposition.
should enjoy the step up to 12f, and even the 20's available now is still a good bet

Looks a typical O'Brien underestimated type who will finish in the first 4 if he goes to Epsom. Not as flashy as some of the hype horses but that was a very nice solid performance.

sting60

Slattsy wrote: »

Totally disagree with you here.
A guineas and Derby winner for Coolmore is possibly the perfect stallion.

Also, Coolmore don't have plenty of English Derby winners. They have
only Galileo, High Chap, and Pour Moi. Only Galileo is proven to be top class so far. I'm sure HC will get more winners in time but he's hardly prolific. Obviously PM is too early to speak of.

I cannot agree with you on the perfect stallion as having won over 1.2 miles.Please look at the greatest stallion lines in history from Northern Dancer in Canada to Saddlers Wells in Ireland .Vincent O Brien the greatest man in racing once said "you breed speed to speed".Unless Ballydoyle are going to export Camelot to Australia it makes zero sence to go to the Derby,its my opinion only.I have a book about Northern Dancer if anyone wants to share around,brilliant.Please Mail me with address.