Noonan - economy will "take off like a ROCKET"

Finance Minister Michael Noonan has given an upbeat assessment of the Irish economy, saying that if the world economy rises Ireland's economy would "take off like a rocket."

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0316/noonan-business.html

100% Propaganda imo. Why do politicians tell us things that clearly defy logic.
Billions yet to pull out of the economy and this guy reckons we are on a winner.
How do we hold this to account? We need something that holds them to account rather than an election every 4 years - especially ministers. The stakes are too high.

Atilathehun

Deleted User wrote: »

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0316/noonan-business.html

100% Propaganda imo. Why do politicians tell us things that clearly defy logic.
Billions yet to pull out of the economy and this guy reckons we are on a winner.
How do we hold this to account? We need something that holds them to account rather than an election every 4 years - especially ministers. The stakes are too high.

Bring back scrap Saturday! It's the only way to show these court jesters up:o

Readyhed

He was ringing the bell at the NYSE. In that scenario it makes sense for him to be upbeat and drum up confidence.

uncle_sam_ie

"If" the world economy rises. Words matter.;)

Awful_Bliss

Yeah when's that going to be Noonan? After we pay off this debt? I'm back on the dole now and have to live on buttons because of your sucking up to the Troika.

later12

In fairness, it was hardly the time or place to make a budget speech.

He's not entirely wrong. Ireland is slowly regaining competitiveness. However, the economy is going to have to rise a lot more impressively to reduce unit labour costs further.

If the world economy took off, Irish competitiveness would indeed be enhanced as long as wage restraint, or even wage austerity, were adhered to. It would lead to something of a positive feedback loop for output.

However, it is for now just wishful thinking. As we look into the likelihood of another European recession, there is no immediate prospect of any such circumstances arising.

later12

later12 wrote: »

He's not entirely wrong.

He is completely wrong, the economy will not "rocket" nor do anything of the like. We have another feckin 20 billion to pull out of the economy.

Parading around the world trying to fool investors is a terrible mistake. They will see the dishonesty and know they are being fed false information.

RichardAnd

Noonan has demonstrated a ability to choose words poorly. Not too long ago, he entertained us all with his views upon youth emigration which was kind of him because I had thought that many of my friends emigrated to find work. Now, thanks to Noonan, I know that they only left to see the world.

*switches off sarcasm.

What this venal old man ought to have said is that if there is a global upswing, Ireland might do well from it. Saying that the economy will "rocket" is disingenuous and also, quite foolish as it's likely he will only attract ire as a result.

later12

Deleted User wrote: »

He is completely wrong, the economy will not "rocket" nor do anything of the like. We have another feckin 20 billion to pull out of the economy.

You do know that is based on a deficit figure, and that deficits can be expressed in terms of a numerator and a denominator... deficit:GDP. In other words, should economic output grow on foot of export demand, the deficit narrows as a function of the denominator, all else being equal.

So the figure you give is not etched in a stone, set in concrete and fixed to a wall in the Department of Finance. It is incorrect to suggest that Noonan is "completely wrong".

Guilty of frightening levels of optimism for an Irish political career, perhaps, but not wrong.

crusher000

We're still reeling from the last rocket our economy took. Off to buy a new car,foreign property and buy shares in the banks. Phew that recession wasn't too bad.

cast_iron

RichardAnd wrote: »

Saying that the economy will "rocket" is disingenuous and also, quite foolish as it's likely he will only attract ire as a result.

Yes, from people who wish to take the words out of context to further their own agenda / satisfy their line of thought.

sarumite

later12 wrote: »

In fairness, it was hardly the time or place to make a budget speech.

He's not entirely wrong. Ireland is slowly regaining competitiveness. However, the economy is going to have to rise a lot more impressively to reduce unit labour costs further.

If the world economy took off, Irish competitiveness would indeed be enhanced as long as wage restraint, or even wage austerity, were adhered to. It would lead to something of a positive feedback loop for output.

However, it is for now just wishful thinking. As we look into the likelihood of another European recession, there is no immediate prospect of any such circumstances arising.

While people like to focus their anger on the Banks and the building trade, the Irish trade union movement has by and large escaped much of the wrath despite the fact they were (and some still are) part of the problem. They were actively involved in promoting the excessive wages that fueled the bubble. From what I hear from them, nothing has been learned from the decline and that given another boom period they would again have a overtly negative influence on our economic competitiveness.

later12

In fairness, I think there is a pretty wide consensus that the Celtic Tiger would not have arisen to anything like the same extent, were wage restraint and collective bargaining not such a well established, well managed feature of Irish economic policy to begin with. Trade unions deserve credit for that.

So I think the trade union movement is aware of the background to this recession. They have seen the fruits of their efforts under their involvement in wage restraint and then under wage inflation. They know it as well as anybody else, I would imagine, so I think the above contribution is a little unbalanced.

sarumite

later12 wrote: »

In fairness, I think there is a pretty wide consensus that the Celtic Tiger would not have arisen to anything like the same extent, were wage restraint and collective bargaining not such a well established, well managed feature of Irish economic policy to begin with. Trade unions deserve credit for that.

So I think the trade union movement is aware of the background to this recession. They have seen the fruits of their efforts under their involvement in wage restraint and then under wage inflation. They know it as well as anybody else, I would imagine, so I think the above contribution is a little unbalanced.

I actually agree it was somewhat unbalanced. There was a bit of kneejerk response after reading the part of your post I highlighted. While I can accept some of what you said, I disagree about their awareness of the background of this recession. In my opinion unions were a contributory factor to our reduced competitiveness (along with many other players in the Irish economy).

Slydice

Wow, I always did wonder what was around that corner that Brian Lenihan said we were turning.

I never imagined we had an arsenal of Rockets with Noonan riding on top of them.

ardmacha

Noonan should not have used terms like rocket. But the point is that the Irish economy can compete and benefit from world trade and will do well if there is a bounce in world trade (as seems very likely in due course). As published today there was a record trade surplus in 2011 and January contined the trend. Writedowns in the economic predictions for 2012 have to do with a recognition that cutbacks elsewhere will reduce trade generally, not a more worrying inability of the Irish economy to benefit from trade.

The Irish economy borrowed its income in this period during the boom period, so is not enjoying it now, but it is still earning it.

femur61

Readyhed wrote: »

He was ringing the bell at the NYSE. In that scenario it makes sense for him to be upbeat and drum up confidence.

I thought it was in France.

NIMAN

Our greatest ever trade surplus was announced today.

I'd say as a country we'd be doing well enough if it wasn't for the banks.

Sand

NIMAN wrote: »

Our greatest ever trade surplus was announced today.

I'd say as a country we'd be doing well enough if it wasn't for the banks.

Reminds me of that scene from Layer Cake were the scumbag drug dealer tells Daniel Craig "You wouldnt be so tough if you didnt have him backing you up!", to which our our own Colm Meaney leans in to respond "Yeah, well he does, doesnt he?"

WalterMitty

What is he basing the "rocketing" on? Why would a hugely dissproportionate amount of world growth arise here when we are still very expensive, poorly located for the new growth markets etc. Sounds like something you used to hear regularly when wee were a much lower cost location and were actually established in industries that were booming in markets nearby.
Our foreign multinationals located here are doing very well for themselves during the Irish recession/depression. Main internationaly trading sectors Internet/IT , financial services, agriculture and pharmaceuticals are all doing very well with exception of financial and even if these areas grow at faster rate under a global expansion theres no guarantee of significant job growth.
More spin from these guys . They must have Peter Mandelson and Alaistair Campbell as consultants.

bbam

uncle_sam_ie wrote: »

"If" the world economy rises. Words matter.;)

Indeed.. And if the world economy doesn't recover soon we'll limp along being governed by a bunch of half wits who have no real grasp of how bad things are for ordinary folk....

chieftan65

What difference does it make what words he uses?? its the same auld gombeen politics we were fed under the last crowd. The economy will rocket, sure any one with half a brain knows the economy wont be rocketing anytime soon. Even if there is an upturn in the world economy (which too is highly unlikely) our economy is so debt ridden at the minute and for the forseeable future we'd be doing well to keep it on an even keel. So let noonan go around the world talking thru his rear, thats all he and the rest of his over paid croonies were ever any good for.

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/noonan-irish-economy-can-take-off-like-a-rocket-543848.html

going by the comments on that news site he fooled alot of people

ardmacha

going by the comments on that news site he fooled alot of people

probably one of those sites where people who know feck all come along and post the first things that comes into their heads.

I suppose the point I am making by posting that breakingnews.ie link is that
after all that has happened people still take alot at face value.

People need to question and second guess politicians

V_Moth

I suppose the Elephant in the room for Ireland's economy is the price of oil. If it continues to go up at a rate of knots, it has the potential to really hurt the export levels. It will also hit the already depressed domestic economy.

ardmacha

I suppose the Elephant in the room for Ireland's economy is the price of oil. If it continues to go up at a rate of knots, it has the potential to really hurt the export levels. It will also hit the already depressed domestic economy.

Sure isn't Ireland about to become an oil producer.

jackiebaron

Deleted User wrote: »

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0316/noonan-business.html

100% Propaganda imo. Why do politicians tell us things that clearly defy logic.
Billions yet to pull out of the economy and this guy reckons we are on a winner.
How do we hold this to account? We need something that holds them to account rather than an election every 4 years - especially ministers. The stakes are too high.

Take off like a rocket?? Shuttles Columbia and Challenger spring to mind.

coolshannagh28

This is the Michael Noonan who mishandled the hep c crisis then led Fine Gael over a Cliff
What do you expect from him he is anutter incompetent only in his position because he backed the fool Kenny in the heave.

[Jackass]

Being optimistic about our future and trying to give an upbeat, positive message??? What a w@nker!!

Cookie_Monster

[Jackass] wrote: »

Being optimistic about our future and trying to give an upbeat, positive message??? What a w@nker!!

there upbeat and positive and then there's just plain ridiculous....

crusher000

Forgive me if I'm wrong but didn't FG say when they were in opposition that our recession was mainly down to the mis management of the Irish economy by FF and not the global recession. Now they're saying if the global economy improves we will rocket so de facto FF didn't mis manage our economy. I'm so confused......

djpbarry

Awful_Bliss wrote: »

I'm back on the dole now and have to live on buttons...

Buttons. My. Arse.

€188 per week is almost 2.5 times the amount I would receive here in the UK if I lost my job and the cost of living in London is a hell of a lot higher than it is in Dublin.

djpbarry

Deleted User wrote: »

Parading around the world trying to fool investors is a terrible mistake. They will see the dishonesty and know they are being fed false information.

You mean like Anglo’s investors did?

I love this idea that “investors” are all-knowing, infallible, fountains of knowledge, who never make poor decisions.

djpbarry

RichardAnd wrote: »

Noonan has demonstrated a ability to choose words poorly. Not too long ago, he entertained us all with his views upon youth emigration which was kind of him because I had thought that many of my friends emigrated to find work. Now, thanks to Noonan, I know that they only left to see the world.

All those people jetting off to Australia are doing so purely to find work, are they? No jobs anywhere between Ireland and Australia?

djpbarry

WalterMitty wrote: »

What is he basing the "rocketing" on? Why would a hugely dissproportionate amount of world growth arise here when we are still very expensive...

Relative to where?

WalterMitty wrote: »

Our foreign multinationals located here are doing very well for themselves during the Irish recession/depression. Main internationaly trading sectors Internet/IT , financial services, agriculture and pharmaceuticals are all doing very well with exception of financial and even if these areas grow at faster rate under a global expansion theres no guarantee of significant job growth.

That depends on what kind of jobs you’re talking about. If you work in software development, for example, Ireland’s a pretty good place to be at the moment. If, on the other hand, you’re a plasterer, then no, it’s unlikely that the expansion of Ireland’s pharmaceutical industry, for example, is going to lead to a demand for your services.

djpbarry

chieftan65 wrote: »

Even if there is an upturn in the world economy (which too is highly unlikely) our economy is so debt ridden at the minute and for the forseeable future we'd be doing well to keep it on an even keel.

So the record levels of exports that Ireland is producing at the moment – what’s going on there then?

golfwallah

I would prefer to see simple to understand, rational explanation of the current state of affairs, the recovery plan and progress against plan, delivered without hype like “take off like a rocket”.

Simplistic hype and sound-bites might give a temporary “feel-good” factor to the minister issuing them, but people need an understanding of what is going on, delivered in a consistent manner, if government want to get the public support necessary to solve our country’s problems.

If they are convinced that what they are doing is right, it’s up to them to communicate this simply and effectively. Just look at the dog’s dinner they’ve made on communicating on the household charges issue, to see how well they are doing so far.

Report card to date has to read “this boy has potential but he must try harder”!

Sand

Yeah, like they did. Anglo Irish went through a slow death of a thousand cuts as investors began abandoning it from May 2007 onwards. Anglo found it harder and harder to raise funds until it found a bunch of dumb mugs in the DoF to believe its sob story in September 2008.

Basically investors saw what was coming long before the DoF (which advises and directs Noonan today) ever did.

golfwallah

Sand wrote: »

Yeah, like they did. Anglo Irish went through a slow death of a thousand cuts as investors began abandoning it from May 2007 onwards. Anglo found it harder and harder to raise funds until it found a bunch of dumb mugs in the DoF to believe its sob story in September 2008.

Basically investors saw what was coming long before the DoF (which advises and directs Noonan today) ever did.

Have any of the "dumb mugs" been held to account yet and are the same people still advising the minister?

If not, maybe that's why so many people are skeptical about Government recovery plans.

K-9

Sand wrote: »

Yeah, like they did. Anglo Irish went through a slow death of a thousand cuts as investors began abandoning it from May 2007 onwards. Anglo found it harder and harder to raise funds until it found a bunch of dumb mugs in the DoF to believe its sob story in September 2008.

Basically investors saw what was coming long before the DoF (which advises and directs Noonan today) ever did.

The DoF advised against guaranteeing Anglo, the wise and prudent choice. That's why the whole night in September 08 story, became so big, Lenihan ignoring all advice, including prudent DoF advice and going on what AIB and the BoI wanted, oh, and David McWilliams.

Unless you've some evidence to suggest Lenihan acted on DoF advice that night?

golfwallah

K-9 wrote: »

The DoF advised against guaranteeing Anglo, the wise and prudent choice. That's why the whole night in September 08 story, became so big, Lenihan ignoring all advice, including prudent DoF advice and going on what AIB and the BoI wanted, oh, and David McWilliams.

Unless you've some evidence to suggest Lenihan acted on DoF advice that night?

Whatever about the rights and wrongs of DOF advice, we are where we are now and need to get on with solving the problem.

In this regard, it is disappointing to see ministers, who are articulate, intelligent people, capable of performing well on TV, failing to implement a sound communications policy. They can't expect every voter in the country to scan through the internet to inform themselves on the ins and outs of sovereign debt and recovery plans.

Maybe it's because they are so bright and well informed by advisors that they have overlooked the need to get the message across to the voters who aren't as well briefed as themselves.

Governing with the consent of the governed is a basic tenet of democracy. Maintaining that consent, since they were originally elected to power, requires good consistent communications.

Voters in the past have demonstrated by rejecting government referendum proposals that, when they are uninformed or in doubt, they tend to want to stick by the status quo.

Bringing people along with big changes requires developing and implementing a suitable communications policy. Let's hope the people in power realise this and up their act before the next referendum.

By all means, if senior people in banks, public service or politicians messed up, were negligent or reckless, they should be made answerable for it. That is something the government should also ensure gets done to ensure justice is seen to be done by the people who elected them.

Sand

K-9 wrote: »

The DoF advised against guaranteeing Anglo, the wise and prudent choice. That's why the whole night in September 08 story, became so big, Lenihan ignoring all advice, including prudent DoF advice and going on what AIB and the BoI wanted, oh, and David McWilliams.

Unless you've some evidence to suggest Lenihan acted on DoF advice that night?

Actually, there is no verified record around the decision made that night. If there is any objective account of what decisions were made and for what reasons, then it would be extremely illuminating and perhaps the only objective and accurate record of why and how a policy decision was made in modern Irish history. Do you have any evidence that Lenihan acted against DoF advice on that night? Did any DoF staff come out at the time and advise the Irish people or the Dail that they felt this decision was incorrect, wrong, dangerous and should be rejected by the Dail?

I can certainly see why the DoF would *now* try to distance themselves from the decision - afterall, their own report announced that the DoF was grand and all that was needed was more money.

As for David McWilliams, he claimed back in mid Q3 2009 (back before the true horror of how bad the actual policy was became apparent to Official Ireland) he only advised a depositor guarantee - and a conditional one at that.

I'd also worked in Sweden where I'd seen the Swedes guarantee all their deposits in the face of a banking crisis. I told the minister it seemed to me that Sweden's reaction was an interesting place to start.

Above all, we needed to protect the ordinary savers, not bond or equity holders. They were playing a different game. They were in the business of gambling. But the savers, the ordinary people who had bank accounts, needed protection.

Meanwhile it would be essential to make the guarantee conditional so that the minister would be in control and the banks would be working for him, not him working for the banks.

That night, it never struck me that the banks would be allowed to get away with what they did in subsequent months.

The minister called me the next day and again on Friday, the 19th, when he rang to say they were contemplating a partial guarantee. My view was that such a move would accelerate capital flight, not avert it.

I put the phone down, thinking that we were in a position of strength and hard decisions would flow from this, and the people who had brought the country to its knees would be brought to theirs. I expected our most delinquent banks would eventually go to the wall with the Irish State acting as broker, not principal, in negotiations between the bankrupt banks and their creditors.

How wrong could I have been?

The reality is the guarantee that came out didnt just guarantee savers and new bondholders, but it also guaranteed *existing* debt, and did so on an *unconditional* and *irrevocable* basis.

The only alternative McWilliams grants the DoF is that they wanted to merge the banks - which as he very correctly notes is pointless. Two bad balance sheets does not create a good one, and as we are seeing both of the "pillar" banks were in as much trouble as Anglo. The next DoF view was a *partial* depositor guarantee which is basically signalling to the world "Woah, we think this bank is in major trouble - best get your money out because we wont be guaranteeing all of it!"

Are we really to believe that a few opinion pieces by a celebrity economist taken together formed a more coherent and convincing plan than *anything* presented by the DoF?

The interesting thing is that *theoretically* the independant, apolitical, unaccountable and unsackable civil service is supposed to represent the long term interests of the Irish state against the short term interests of political electoral cycles. This decision was quite simply the dumbest, stupidest, most moronic decision in the history of the Irish state (worse than the economic war Fianna Fail engaged in during the 1930s..) and the Civil Service tasked with ensuring sound policy simply shrugged and said "Ah shure, you win some, you lose some"? Really? Thats the DoFs get-out? They just decided it was on the Ministers head? That they had *no* responsibility to the people of Ireland, including the people who never voted for the Minister or his party?

In this case - if the DoF was as vehemently against the guarantee as they now claim - then they failed. If they are as prone to influence from electoral cycles and celebrity economists as they now portray themselves as, then whats the point of an unaccountable civil service?

More to the point - why are we paying for an unaccountable civil service when we could get as much expertise and courage from the staff of your local McDonalds? Why arent the civil service paid from the party political contributions of whatever party is in power if they are just a wing of whatever politician is in power?

K-9

Sand wrote: »

Did any DoF staff come out at the time and advise the Irish people or the Dail that they felt this decision was incorrect, wrong, dangerous and should be rejected by the Dail?

I can certainly see why the DoF would *now* try to distance themselves from the decision - afterall, their own report announced that the DoF was grand and all that was needed was more money.

Look it's a thread about Kenny.

On the guarantee, Put it this way, the DoF would not come out the next morning after Lenihan just announced the most audacious guarantee in Western European history and say, well actually, we told him last night to burn Anglo?

Is that seriously your premise for criticising DoF inaction? Seriously? Are you suggesting they should have because it looks like it to me.

In summary, what exactly did you expect the Civil Service to do after the guarantee was announced?

golfwallah

K-9 wrote: »

Look it's a thread about Kenny.

On the guarantee, Put it this way, the DoF would not come out the next morning after Lenihan just announced the most audacious guarantee in Western European history and say, well actually, we told him last night to burn Anglo?

Is that seriously your premise for criticising DoF inaction? Seriously? Are you suggesting they should have because it looks like it to me.

In summary, what exactly did you expect the Civil Service to do after the guarantee was announced?

At last some action from our politicians to explain all this high finance / sovereign debt stuff to the hoi polloi. Leaflet just in the door from Fine Gael inviting all to "a public info meeting on the fiscal compact treaty" in Grand Hotel, Malahide, Monday, 26th March at 8PM.

As for the civil servants - well, we can all get caught up in speculative arguments, but getting to the bottom of the matter is another thing altogether. Let's leave that one for another day!:)

Cookie_Monster

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

there upbeat and positive and then there's just plain ridiculous....

and then there are outright lies

djpbarry

djpbarry wrote: »

All those people jetting off to Australia are doing so purely to find work, are they? No jobs anywhere between Ireland and Australia?

I`m in Australia, not on a working holiday but on a skilled visa. Australia was No 1 choice ahead of everywhere else due to the job prospects here and due to the fact that you don`t have to learn a whole new language.

Few countries between Ireland and Australia that can match the unemployment rate and language.

Most are on working holiday visas and permanent visas are hard to come by.

djpbarry

djpbarry wrote: »

You mean like Anglo’s investors did?

I love this idea that “investors” are all-knowing, infallible, fountains of knowledge, who never make poor decisions.

Don`t put words in my mouth. I never said investors are infallible.
But pointing out Anglo in particular is a mistake. Anglo shares were hugely influenced by a handful of people. Sean Quinns shenanigans for example.


My point still stands and you did not address it. It is a bad idea to mislead/fool investors. Do you agree or not?

djpbarry

djpbarry wrote: »

So the record levels of exports that Ireland is producing at the moment – what’s going on there then?

The report linked actually explains it saying the Euro devaluation is playing a part. When we continue with the austerity Ireland will need to run to stand still.

djpbarry

Deleted User wrote: »

I`m in Australia, not on a working holiday but on a skilled visa. Australia was No 1 choice ahead of everywhere else due to the job prospects here and due to the fact that you don`t have to learn a whole new language.

But the point is you chose to go to Australia.

Deleted User wrote: »

My point still stands and you did not address it. It is a bad idea to mislead/fool investors.

You really think Noonan was trying to mislead or fool anyone with an off-the-cuff remark? You really think the potential investors who heard it didn’t take it with a pinch of salt? You’re pretty much accusing Noonan of attempting fraud by being a little over-zealous in his promotion of Ireland – that’s a bit silly.

Deleted User wrote: »

The report linked actually explains it saying the Euro devaluation is playing a part.

Yeah, I’m sure it played a part, but Ireland’s exports have been doing pretty well for a few years now – it’s not a recent development.

djpbarry

djpbarry wrote: »

But the point is you chose to go to Australia.

jaysus sitting around twiddling my thumbs on the dole for the next few years isnt a choice. I find what your attitude to the matter offensive actually. Alot of people would rather be home working not ten thousand miles from their aging and sometimes sick parents while missing out on nieces & nephews being born & growing up. Leaving lifelong friends behind isnt any fun either.

But it is your choice. Rings a bell with the idiots who call emigrants traitors.

djpbarry wrote: »

You really think Noonan was trying to mislead or fool anyone with an off-the-cuff remark? You really think the potential investors who heard it didn’t take it with a pinch of salt? You’re pretty much accusing Noonan of attempting fraud by being a little over-zealous in his promotion of Ireland – that’s a bit silly.
Yeah, I’m sure it played a part, but Ireland’s exports have been doing pretty well for a few years now – it’s not a recent development.

Noonan said something that wasnt true. End of story. We need accountable politicians. We need responsible politicians who will not try and tell us or anybody else black is white and white is black.

The economy already went back into recession. Noonan would have known this.
http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0322/economy-business.html

Ireland back in recession in late 2011

Updated: 11:49, Thursday, 22 March 2012

Official figures show that Ireland technically returned to recession in the final three months of last year.

Off like a rocket allright in the wrong direction maybe