Big Bucks - Too Short?

Colonel Sanders

The world hurdle decs are out & I was quite surprised to see that Big Bucks is still "only" 1.66 on Betfair. When you consider he touched odds against the last 2 years yet has some reasonably stiff opposition this year I thought he'd be a bit bigger.

Oscar Whisky was placed in a champion hurdle & won an Aintree hurdle. Thousand Stars has a French Champion hurdle & lots of Grade 1 form. So Young's Neptune form got a boost today, and he might have finished closer but for flattening the last. VLV has looked an improved mare this year & has a Grade 1 win under her belt.

Don't get me wrong, Big Bucks is a legend, 15 races unbeaten speaks for itself. I think & hope he can still put this field away but not one for me at 4/6. Quevega was briefly 4/6 today, yet she was also a returning 3 time festival winner up against a field with zero strength in depth

Opinions? Is it a case he's too short or does comparing his price this year to the last 2 merely highlight that odds against was monumental value both times?

UrbanSea

Considering that he isn't too far off what was available for Quevega, it seems short given the lack of strength in depth that was in the mares' race

Shane732

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

The world hurdle decs are out & I was quite surprised to see that Big Bucks is still "only" 1.66 on Betfair. When you consider he touched odds against the last 2 years yet has some reasonably stiff opposition this year I thought he'd been a bit bigger.

Oscar Whisky was placed in a champion hurdle & won an Aintree hurdle. Thousand Stars has a French Champion hurdle & lots of Grade 1 form. So Young's Neptune form got a boost today, and he might have finished closer but for flattening the last. VLV has looked an improved mare this year & has a Grade 1 win under her belt.

Don't get me wrong, Big Bucks is a legend, 15 races unbeaten speaks for itself. I think & hope he can still put this field away but not one for me at 4/6. Quevega was briefly 4/6 today, yet she was also a returning 3 time festival winner up against a field with zero strength in depth

Opinions? Is it a case he's too short or does comparing his price this year to the last 2 merely highlight that odds against was monumental value both times?

Certainly the odds against last year was monumental value.

I think he's too short at the price.

If he got towards evens then I'd be interested.

I think Thousand Stars is worth a bit of a bet.

Colonel Sanders

Definitely tempted to lay it for a chunk at 1.66 & (hopefully) green up on the day. Seeing as there was evens Sprinter Sacre & Hurricane Fly this morning when both were far shorter on Betfair I'd be hopeful of 4/5 on Thursday

I wouldn't be surprised if Big Bucks went off at 4/6 or even 1/2 without any significant move towards 4/5 at any time.

I can't see any of the opposition improving to trouble Big Bucks except maybe Oscar Whiskey, but I think Oscar Whiskey isn't as good (to date) as Grand Cruz was.

I think it will be a horrible experience to watch at times for anyone who has money on Big Bucks, there will be a few seconds of :eek: he's not going to pick up, but I fully expect BB to dig out whatever is needed.

My main fear would be BB being brought down tbh.

Nightmare scenario is a very slow pace with nothing being near BB and something flying up the hill as he's idling in front.

cson

Ruby wouldn't let a slow pace happen, too clever for that. If nothing goes on he'll take it on and once he sets a gallop he'll be hard to reel in.

Hulk Hands

cson wrote: »

Ruby wouldn't let a slow pace happen, too clever for that. If nothing goes on he'll take it on and once he sets a gallop he'll be hard to reel in.

The situation above has almost never happened in any of Big Bucks previous races though.

I know Nicholls has been quoted in saying that he wouldn't be against Big Bucks being out in front all race but I think the horse also idles in front and Ruby has said that the longer he keeps Big Bucks switched off the better he is. I'd be shocked to see BB take it up anywhere before the last half mile

RichieLawlor

I'd love some even money again. Wow. I'm salivating at the thoughts of even money

RichieLawlor

Can you honestly see something passing him on the bridle? And if not can you honestly see anything outbattling and out staying him up the hill.

Id be tempted to Place lay Oscar Whiskey, because with stamina not assured if he tries to take on BB he could end up getting beaten off and fading.

Colonel Sanders

I can't see anything passing him on the bridle. But that's not why I posted this thread.

It's simply do people think 4/6 is value, about right or too short. I think a bit too short despite the fact I think he'll win

Hulk Hands

Nah 4/6 is value. He's a 1/2 shot imo.

RichieLawlor

I agree I would back him at 4/6

RichieLawlor

RichieLawlor wrote: »

...............Wow. I'm salivating at the thoughts of even money

I'd be amazed if he went evens on any betting medium bar the 30 mins in shop enhancement Boyles did last Friday. I can't see any bookies seeing the benefit in luring folks with a large BB price at that stage of the festival and I can't see an actual market drift either.

Colonel Sanders

I'm confident we'll see 4/5 tomorrow.

I reckon 4/5 is a savagely valuesome price

sting60

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Nah 4/6 is value. He's a 1/2 shot imo.

I think looking at his races he is stepping at hurdles ,may fall/make mistake.I hate to see horses fall but its my point of view.You wont be the first to say Sting what are you smoking,but .

Colonel Sanders

1.62/1.63 now. I've laid it at 1.63. I'll back it back if it drifts (my 4/5 looks like wishful thinking) but if not I'll actually let it run. Most likely winner of course but I'm happy it's too short

Hulk Hands

sting60 wrote: »

I think looking at his races he is stepping at hurdles ,may fall/make mistake.I hate to see horses fall but its my point of view.You wont be the first to say Sting what are you smoking,but .

But he hasn't fallen in his 15 races since he reverted back to hurdling so it's a very small thing to allow for in the price.

Saying he is a 1/2 shot is only giving him a 66.66% chance of winning in your own mind. So it's not even that short a price.

Anyway, the big 2 so far were beaten so they may take BB on tomorrow. Or they could learn from their mistakes. We'll see. What may drive his price up is that many punters simply won't have the cash available to steam into him tomorrow after HF and SE being beaten.

leggit

I've taken 8/13 with PP and don't think we'll see better than that, I think it will be a stroll in the park with Oscar Whisky fading towards the end, more worried about thousand stars but don't think there's enough class anywhere in the field to touch BB.

Have him in a double with Boston Bob on Friday in the albert too.

Morleystreet

Tink a lot of the contenders may be burnt off in taking on BB and think something like five dream might run into a place as d others fade. At 100 to 1 I'll try a little each way. Wud like to see BB win, but ave learned my lesson from the joy of going in big on sacre and the horror of giving it back again on the fly. Those short price sure things ain't good for d heart!

Colonel Sanders

4/6 with Stan James. Remember all the short priced favs have traded bigger than the Betfair show with the bookies this year

Plus 10

Personally I think he is too short

• Most races he runs there is that moment where he comes under pressure and seems to take a while to get going (struggled for over a furlong in the last race) - I know he has ultimately delivered but not something I'd like if lumping on at 4/7ish
• Main reason is the form of the Nicholls yard - shocking form the last weeks weeks in comparison to usual - note Rock On Ruby was kept in a satellite yard
• 2 very smart horses with 2 mile form against him this year

Anyway what of the opposition
Only 3 horses within 17lbs of Big Bucks (So Young the unknown outside of this but too many question marks)

• Dynaste - looked like he had BB in trouble at Ascot but ultimately went for home too early in the race. Better the last time in Chelt - young improving horse - think he has very good place prospects but just don't think he will do it
• Oscar Whiskey - Stable in super form this week and has been impressive this season - the uncertainty is will he stay the 3 miles in Chelt - never raced beyond 2m 4f. Not for me.
• Thousand Stars - my nap bet of the week (e/w) - can't wait for this - course form - very competitive in the 2m races the last year or two - 4th in a Champ Hurdle - 2nd/3rd in Punch. Ground is no problem and will stay on. Decent jockey on board (no disrespect to Katie). If anyone wants to know a reason to back TS - look at the Aintree Hurdle over 2m 4 last year. Max bet e/w on TS and for that extra bit of cover place it with PP to get money back if 2nd to BB

1st - TH
2nd - Dynaste
3rd - BB

Colonel Sanders

8/11 Big Bucks. 4/5 might not be completely out of the question. 1.67/1.68 on Betfair

mdwexford

Hes going to get beaten some day.

My gut says this could be the year but normal rules dont apply to a horse of his class.

I wouldnt be a layer.

Nulty

Ladrokes HALF the odds each way on the World hurdle! Until 9.30

Be sureto follow the link on the front page rather than go through odds checker or regular card. Max bet is around 30e

Thousand Stars @ 9/1 (9/2 place part)
Voler La Vedette @ 16/1 (8/1 place part)

leggit

Plus 10 wrote: »

1st - TH
2nd - Dynaste
3rd - BB

Wow, not just predicting a Big Bucks defeat but predicting him to come 3rd!!

Thousand Stars is a good e/w or w/o bet but won't be winning this one I feel. Big Bucks is the definition of a Cheltenham horse and he'll destroy them all today. Pretty weak field in comparison to this freak of nature for me!

handsomecake

i wont be predicting him getting beaten until hes beaten if you know what i mean.as in ,in the race after that then id think he could lose again.

not afraid of thousand stars at all.
oscar whiskey is an unknown i suppose and sevenbarrows is flying

UrbanSea

Dynaste each way must be a great bet. If Big Bucks is beaten today I think it'd be Dynaste who does it

Colonel Sanders

1.75 now. 8/11 with the bookies

Hoping for 1.8 to close out.

Shane732

You'll do well to pick 1.80 up...

Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

.............

Hoping for 1.8 to close out.

Are you going to let it run otherwise?

ryaner777

remember powers are money back if second to big bucks ( sorry ), may be of interest to some people thinking of taking him on ?

leggit

ryaner777 wrote: »

remember powers are money back if second to big zeb, may be of interest to some people thinking of taking him on ?

PP are such sneaky petes!

Giving money back specials on horses that aren't even running

Colonel Sanders

RoverJames wrote: »

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

.............

Hoping for 1.8 to close out.

Are you going to let it run otherwise?

Probably not tbh. I laid it as I thought it was way too short but don't want a big liability. I'll probably go all green on either BB to win or lose rather than try be in a position to scrape a few % either way

poppers

seen this on the racing post web site http://www.paddypower.com/img/splashes/racingpost/big_bucks_world_hurdle.html?AFF_ID=10064959

Colonel Sanders

Back just over half back at 8/11. Big Bucks a loser in my book but nothing major

Colonel Sanders

Typical, 1.8 now.

Guess 1.63 was too short! Jim McGrath questioning if there's an issue with some of Nicholls horses

Colonel Sanders

Had a free bet with which I backed Thousand Stars w/o

Couldn't let So Young go unbacked at 10/1 w/o either with the Neptune form getting boosted again yesterday

UrbanSea

I had a dream Dynaste would win. If he does I will cry

leggit

UrbanSea wrote: »

I had a dream Dynaste would win. If he does I will cry

T'wil be a thirsty St.Patricks day if Big Bucks doesn't come in I think!

Heard he was sleeping soundly about 2.5 hours ago which is a good sign, hopefully he'll romp home, he is a cheltenham horse thruogh and through and the fact that beats everyone everywhere else can only be a good sign for this :eek: right???

UrbanSea

We'll soon know!!

Colonel Sanders

Touched 1.93 (possibly bigger)

Hope those who thought 4/6 was value & he couldn't get any bigger filled their boots

Colonel Sanders

Great performance from an exceptional horse.

On another note outstanding ride on the 2nd & gutsy run from the mare

UrbanSea

People questioning Lynch's decision to switch. Thought it rejuvenated her

culline

Excellent ride by Lynch,no complaints

Colonel Sanders

UrbanSea wrote: »

People questioning Lynch's decision to switch. Thought it rejuvenated her

Ruby wanted company, Lynch was alive to it & switched her to try catch the jolly napping. Great piece of riding IMO & in any case didn't make a difference to the result

Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

.............

Hope those who thought 4/6 was value & he couldn't get any bigger filled their boots

I was on at 1/2 in betting shop land and 1.64 in Betfair land. Wasn't going investing anymore than what I'd on

I didn't say he couldn't get any bigger.

RoverJames wrote: »

I wouldn't be surprised if Big Bucks went off at 4/6 or even 1/2 without any significant move towards 4/5 at any time.................

Morgans

VLV vs Quevega will be a race in Punchestown.

I know where I want my money.

I'll be backing Quevega

mdwexford

Dont know what got into VLV today but Quevega has beaten her before and will beat her again.

Maybe at a nice ish price