Supreme Novices Preview

rossom

Supreme Novices Preview

Trifolium 14/1 & Allure of Illusion 33/1 both NRNB

A notoriously difficult race to solve and probably the most open looking affair on paper. There are so many doubts about the horses at the head of the market that I think it makes much more sense to have a look at a bit of value in the race. Current favourite Darlan has been absolutely smashed in the past week, with owner JP McManus stating his 5 year old trained by Nicky Henderson was his best chance of a winner all week. I think there are certainly a lot of questions regarding Darlan, especially whether he is a flashy bridle horse who finds nothing when asked the question and at the price I certainly couldn't back him for love nor money. Moreover, Darlan took a crashing fall on his last start which looked horrendous and the last 53 horses who fell in their final start in a hurdles race before Cheltenham have failed to win at the festival which is a huge trend to overcome.

Jessie Harrington's Steps To Freedom headed the market for the past few months before the recent plunge on Darlan and there are also many questions regarding this 7/1 shot. Firstly, his form doesn't look anywhere near as strong as it once did with the two horses he beat at Cheltenham in the shape of Prospect Wells and Ericht disappointing subsequently and I really can't see why this 6 year old is this price on the basis of the latters subsequent disappointments. Moreover, this gelding who is unbeaten in his 3 starts has to overcome the massive trend showing 11 of the last 12 winners of the Supreme having a race in the 45 days prior to the race and although I know Jessie Harrington and jockey Robbie Power really fancy his chances he just isn't for me at the price. I'd be against Dermot Weld's Galileo's Choice given the trainer hasn't had a winner at the Festival in the past 5 years whilst I also have doubts about how good Cinders and Ashes, Montbazon and Midnight Game are.

I've narrowed down the race to two selections that fit the majority of major trends. Both won LTO (13 of last 15 winners), both have run in the last 45 days (11 of last 12 winners), both are Irish trained (7 of the last 11 winners) and both are aged 5 or 6 (33 of last 37 winners). The two horses I fancy in this contest are Charles Byrnes' Trifolium 14/1 and Willie Mullins Allure of Illusion 33/1

I was very sweet on Trifolium until last week when he took an incredibly alarming drift on the exchanges to about 26 (which normally indicates that he won't run or is injured) but he seems to have tightened up right now so I'm willing to accept this conjecture may have been false, although I'm still a little worried. A recruit from France, Trifolium is a 5 year old gelding and I think he has shown some really solid form in the 6 starts he's had in Ireland since joining the excellent Charles Byrnes yard. After two encouraging yet very novicey performances in Ireland, the introduction of cheekpieces really seemed to work the oracle for this 5 year as he sauntered home a wide margin winner in a maiden in his 3rd start at Cork. It was a devastating performance, with Trifolium heavily eased at the finish and was a very visually impressive display. On his 4th start, Trifolium again ran out an impressive winner beating the decent yard stick Plan A in the process. It was again another very decent effort with jockey Niall Madden looking behind a fair bit out emphasising he had a lot of horse underneath him that day.

On his 2nd last start in January Trifolium came up against his toughest task to date when facing the excellent So Young, who I rate as a very good animal who goes for the World Hurdle to take on Big Bucks and who also posted an excellent 3rd in the Neptune at Cheltenham last year. In the 4 runner affair, Trifolium actually travelled into the race better than the eventual winner before So Young utilised his extra experience to run out at 7.5L winner. I really think this is a smashing bit of form, especially considering Trifolium is only a novice and he certainly gained a lot of plaudits in defeat. On his 6th and final start for Byrnes, Trifolium was stepped into Grade 2 Company for the first time and ran out a very impressive winner at Punchestown last month, quickening away effortlessly from what looked a very strong field on paper and the 9L margin of victory is perhaps an underestimate of how good Trifolium was. Quickening off the front, Trifolium quickened away from the field fluently and it was again an emphasis of how far he has come from his debut.

Although there are definite concerns about the ground given he has done all his racing in Ireland on yielding ground or worse, its not that Byrnes has shirked from better ground to my knowledge and it has merely been a case of the ground over here has been very soft for the past few months. However, Byrnes is a very shrewd trainer and I believe that he won't run his gelding on unsuitable ground and there is a possibility that he may improve for the better ground. Furthermore, Davy Russell said at a recent preview night that although he may not improve on better ground he certainly won't be inconvenienced by it which is good to hear. Although the Gigginstown retained jockey Davy Russell looks set to take the ride on Willie Mullins Midnight Game due to the positive reports emanating from that yard, I wholeheartedly believe that Trifolium is the superior animal. [Although in a Cheltenham Preview night at Leopardstown Willie Mullins said Midnight Game didn't work well so Russell may switch allegiances to this fella] With the solid form in the book and with Byrnes having 2 winners from his 13 runners at Cheltenham in the past 5 years, I'm very confident that if he runs he will have an excellent chance and the 14/1 on offer with NRNB in several firms looks a very good bet.

The other horse at a bigger price is Willie Mullins 6 year old Allure of Illusion who I think has been a bit overlooked in the market. Playing second fiddle to stablemate Midnight Game in the betting, Allure of Illusion has only had 4 starts to date spread out over 18 months with two starts in bumpers and 2 latterly over hurdles. Allure of Illusion was successful on debut in a bumper at Killarney in August 2010 and showed a likeable attitude to overcome interference and some obstruction to eventually get up and score. After this, Willie Mullins' charge was 8 months off the track before making his reappearance in a Grade 2 bumper at Aintree in April last year when finishing a 10L beaten 3rd. That day, Allure of Illusion had a rather rough race getting bumped on several occasions when short of room before having to come widest of all to make his challenge coming into the home straight. That race has a lot of significance in terms of the Supreme Novices with the front two that day Steps To Freedom and Montbazon re-opposing on Tuesday and although you can't directly translate bumper form to hurdles form you'd think this 6 year old would have a bit to find with those two rivals. However, the race that day went along at an absolute snails pace and it really suited the first two home given their high cruising speed and with the Supreme likely to be a frantic pace it will surely help Allure of Illusion to bridge the gap.

After another long 9 month gap, Allure of Illusion made his hurdles debut for Mullins back in January where he was a 1L beaten 2nd behind Joxer, although that certainly does not tell the story of the race. After hurdling rather excellently for a debutant, Allure of Illusion was horrendously hampered by a faller and it would have killed so much momentum. However, he again showed his tough nature by brushing this off before nearly doing what seemed unthinkable and getting up to beat Joxer, with the front pair drawing well clear. Although Joxer has disappointed in his races since, I think he sets a good standard of form and he is a talented horse and I don't think he has been right in his 2 subsequent starts. After a solid bumper career, Joxer made his hurdling debut at the Leopardstown Festival in December where he finished 0.5L behind Midnight Game, Allure of Illusion's stablemate and a 9/1 shot for the Supreme Midnight Game. Given that it was Joxer's hurdling debut and Midnight Game had already had 2 starts over hurdles, Allure of Illusion finishing 2nd to Joxer on his hurdling debut when the latter already had experience under his belt certainly shows me that it is definitely possible that Allure of Illusion could be a better horse.

On his final start, Allure of Illusion appeared to disappoint in a huge way on the face of things when only dead heating for 1st last month when a 1/5 favourite. Although many perceive in the context of this race that on this showing Allure of Illusion would have no chance, this effort was a full 4f longer than his debut effort and I certainly believe that it is possible that Allure of Illusion may simply have not stayed the trip. He travelled into the race better than anything and cruised all the way to the last flight and when Ruby Walsh popped him the question there was little to be found, often an indicator that the horse didn't stay the trip. With the Supreme Novices 16.5f, the very unexposed Allure of Illusion should relish the step back in trip and if I am right about not staying than I think he has some rather strong form in the book and he looks great value at 33/1.

Although not a race to get heavily involved with given the open and competitive nature of the race, I certainly think bets on Trifolium and Allure of Illusion are certainly worthy of my money. If acting on the ground, Trifolium has the best form in the book for me and I think he certainly looks very overpriced at 14/1. Similarly, if Allure of Illusion didn't stay the 20f trip on his last start then I think he looks to be pretty overlooked in the market. These two Irish trained horses fit the key trends of this race and I certainly think it is worth pointing out that Willie Mullins took this event back in 2007 with Ebizayan at 40/1 so the fact Allure of Illusion is bigger in the betting isn't a concern. With too may doubts about those at the forefront of the market, I certainly think it is worth looking for value alternatives and I'm confident both Trifolium and Allure of Illusion will at least outrun their odds, hopefully with them filling the first two places home.

diarmuid79

I got a tip for ashes and cinders, what do you think of this horse he has gone from 20/1 into around 8/9's. Most of his wins have come on soft ground so im a little wary!!

RichieLawlor

diarmuid79 wrote: »

I got a tip for ashes and cinders, what do you think of this horse he has gone from 20/1 into around 8/9's. Most of his wins have come on soft ground so im a little wary!!

I'm not sure whether your messing or not but this thing about getting horses names wrong and doing it on purpose (yes you Urban Sea) is not funny and it's really irritating, like being back in the school yard.

UrbanSea

I never did that Richard

rossom

diarmuid79 wrote: »

I got a tip for ashes and cinders, what do you think of this horse he has gone from 20/1 into around 8/9's. Most of his wins have come on soft ground so im a little wary!!

If you've got him at 20s then that looks a decent bet but I personally couldn't touch him at the price at the moment. For one reason or another I've just not really taken to the horse and I'm very unsure about how good he is given the fact it doesn't look like he's beaten much. Although stopped in his run in a bumper at Aintree last year, he was well behind Steps To Freedom, Montbazon and Allure of Illusion that day and I just don't think he's good enough to win. There isn't much e/w value left in my opinion given the size, competitive nature and openness of the bet and although I'm not saying he won't win there are just more persuasive alternatives for me

ste2010

RichieLawlor wrote: »

diarmuid79 wrote: »

I got a tip for ashes and cinders, what do you think of this horse he has gone from 20/1 into around 8/9's. Most of his wins have come on soft ground so im a little wary!!

I'm not sure whether your messing or not but this thing about getting horses names wrong and doing it on purpose (yes you Urban Sea) is not funny and it's really irritating, like being back in the school yard.

Richie you sound like the kind of horse that would buck the **** of someone if they tried to pet u

rossom

Lads I've posted up something that took me a fair bit of time and effort so I'd appreciate if you kept your nonsensical bickering off the thread

hucklebuck

rossom wrote: »

Lads I've posted up something that took me a fair bit of time and effort so I'd appreciate if you kept your nonsensical bickering off the thread

I like horses.

hucklebuck

rossom wrote: »

Lads I've posted up something that took me a fair bit of time and effort so I'd appreciate if you kept your nonsensical bickering off the thread

I think its Sea Urban too

ft9

Are those my feet?

hucklebuck

rossom wrote: »

Lads I've posted up something that took me a fair bit of time and effort so I'd appreciate if you kept your nonsensical bickering off the thread

Moral high ground and sure isnt there a Supreme thread there somewhere

ft9

rossom wrote: »

Lads I've posted up something that took me a fair bit of time and effort so I'd appreciate if you kept your nonsensical bickering off the thread

Ah, your lost. I think you meant to post in the Supreme Novice thread.

This one

ipitydafool

Nice report rossom, you make a good case for both horses. I personally cant seem the improvement needed from Allure of Illusion to win the Supreme. The horse I have had money on you didnt mention and I think he also represents good value at 14's is Tetlami. In fairness though compared to last few years which had red hot favourites it is a wide open affair.

UrbanSea

Ah lads no need to be asses.


Rossom that was a good preview. What do you make of Tetlami?

rossom

ipitydafool wrote: »

Nice report rossom, you make a good case for both horses. I personally cant seem the improvement needed from Allure of Illusion to win the Supreme. The horse I have had money on you didnt mention and I think he also represents good value at 14's is Tetlami. In fairness though compared to last few years which had red hot favourites it is a wide open affair.

UrbanSea wrote: »

Ah lads no need to be asses.


Rossom that was a good preview. What do you make of Tetlami?

I may be wrong but think I read somewhere that Barry Geraghty said in one of the preview nights that Tetlami would be doing well to finish 1f behind Darlan. I could be inventing that in my head but even if its an exaggeration the fact I don't like Darlan means Tetlami was scratched immediately for me

UrbanSea

****e I hadn't even realised Tetlami had been scratched

Edit: You mean just scratched from a betting point of you for you

Hulk Hands

Don't think tetlamis form is all that good. Same with steps for freedom. Couldn't have darlan at that priceafter his first race at Cheltenham. I'm on Midnight Game at bigger prices but didn't like Mullins comments about his poor work. By process of elimination really im starting to side with Montbazon. He's nearly the only horse im not negative on, but that's probably not enough reason to have another bet on the race.

ste2010

rossom wrote: »

Lads I've posted up something that took me a fair bit of time and effort so I'd appreciate if you kept your nonsensical bickering off the thread

Rossom i appreciate the post, no bickering. Was only having the craic. Richie knows that too.
My fancy is cinders and ashes and sous les cieux if he runs. got at 20's and 25's

My worry with C and A is is his time off the track an his last 2 races were in fairly small fields. Given that , he won easily..made mince meet of most he's come across over hurdles. Course form decent and has a good few races under his belt for a novice in large fields. Hoping this will stand to him. McCain thinks the world of him and so do I.

SLC I live in hope similar to Mullins he can prove his price. His last 2 races are living in the shadow of his on the bridle hammering of gallileos choice. He probably needs a bit further to prove how good he is prob one of the reasons he May be turned to the Neptune. Coming 2nd to benefficient that day prob did nothing but outline how poor te rest of the hopeful field were or showed how capable benefficient is. He was off the bridle a good bit from home as well but stayed on well to get close despite a mistake. Either way at 25-1 I'm hoping the hill plays to his strengths and the better ground. if he goes to the Neptune ill be on him aswell. I do fancy monsklan in te Neptune however.

Colonel Sanders

Rossom, someone at the Leopardstown preview made a similar comment re. Tetlami. Think it was Anthony Bromley but don't quote.

Apparently JP bought Colour Squadron. He looked a doubtful runner judging by the Betfair market the last few days but stronger now & Hobbs says he's "likely" to run now

I thought when JP bought it he might not run but now is it simply a case of JP bolstering his squad or is it an indication he sees him as a threat to Darlan? I think CS might need a bit further but definitely think he'd enjoy the very strong pace of a typical supreme. I really liked It's A Gimme's win at Newbury before Xmas & have been following that form since (which appears quite strong)

On a related note if Its A Gimme took his place in the county off 136 he'd definitely interest me as long as his inexperience didn't find him out this early in a competitive big field handicap

newuser89

Tetlami form is very gd
I think on his second start he beat a horse I liked called knights pass
And he was 3rd
I know 2 nd and 3rd have won since and maybe the 4 th too and he beat them well.
Knight pass let the form down at Cheltenham last time all be it over 2 mile 5 f
But I think that is because Cheltenham doesn't suit the horse

Sammo13

Darlan is short now at 5/1 but I like the look of him. Apart from his eye catching run before crashing out in the betfair he battled to win one of his prev starts. It could be 7/1 the field but for me Darlan looks the class of the race.

Hard to get an angle on the Irish form, Trifo was well beaten by So Young, Midnight game was well beaten in the royal bond and then beat Dylan Ross, G Choice was also beaten in royal bond and can't have steps of freedom..

A King horse Mountbazon and McCains Cinders and Ashes look very interesting and VC bet are doing offer €20 win in the first, free €20 bet in the first on wed...:rolleyes:

the groutch

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Apparently JP bought Colour Squadron.

may as well throw away my docket :rolleyes:

AngryBollix

I've backed Galieos Choice e\w at 8\1 and Montbazon e\w at 12\1.

Montbazon now into 8's I believe

eoghan_85

AngryBollix wrote: »

I've backed Galieos Choice e\w at 8\1 and Montbazon e\w at 12\1.

Montbazon now into 8's I believe

Montbazon is still available at 10s in a good few places. Have him backed at 20s in a treble with HF (7/4) and Quevega (6/5) but while I salivate at the prospect of him winning, the more I look at it, the more I suspect that he will struggle to get up the hill. Alan King is bullish about him though and the race is wide open.

AngryBollix

I've tried to cover my rear end by going e\w on Galileos Choice and Montbazon.

RichieLawlor

eoghan_85 wrote: »

Montbazon is still available at 10s in a good few places. Have him backed at 20s in a treble with HF (7/4) and Quevega (6/5) but while I salivate at the prospect of him winning, the more I look at it, the more I suspect that he will struggle to get up the hill. Alan King is bullish about him though and the race is wide open.

That's the craziest treble ive ever heard of in my life. 7/4, 6/5, and 20/1?

Slattsy

Backed Colour Squadron last week at 16s. Then on Friday I read JP bought it, and was slightly worried, but happy Hobbs has said he will still run. I think he has a cracking chance.
Was still cruising when he fell last time, hard to know what way that race would have ended with Montbazon. And at double the price I think CS is super value.
The pace of the race will really suit him.

thebison

Stolen from another forum.


Mod edit <snip>

Due to new copyright laws, only a paragraph from another source may be quoted in a post, and a link must be provided.

Now, feck me but Steps to Freedom is currently 6/1 with Setantabet.

Getting Paid 12/1 be sweet

For me, its between Steps to Freedom and Galileos Choice on this one.

Jayo11780

Montbazon all the way in this one lads............

El Ninotorres

Jayo11780 wrote: »

Montbazon all the way in this one lads............

Seems to be where the best value is. Like Steps to freedom too. Should be a great race.

newuser89

Prospect wells has nothing to find with steps to freedom
Ruby chose him over midnight game
This is the only horse with a decent price left in him.
Had a breathing operation too

RichieLawlor

newuser89 wrote: »

Prospect wells has nothing to find with steps to freedom
Ruby chose him over midnight game
This is the only horse with a decent price left in him.
Had a breathing operation too

Ahem, cough, cough. Vulcanite is still a big price.

newuser89

Sorry actually
Vulcanite and prospect wells still have some value to there prices
In all honesty I could pick 8 of them that I would be happy to have a tenner e/w on
Tetlami and prospect wells for me

UrbanSea

Ruby wouldn't get to choose Midnight Game it's Davy's horse to ride

newuser89

He already chose trifolium
So id think next in line was ruby

UrbanSea

Sorry I hadn't realised. I'm not sure who'd get it, I don't recall Ruby being on a Gigginstown horse before, but think he was the other week

UrbanSea

Yes, he rode Start me Up the other week

newuser89

Paul Townend on board so presume he had choice

Gringo180

Honestly cant believe how big a price Vulcanite is, 20/1 and was only beaten 7L by Montbazon who is 7/1.

the groutch

Gringo180 wrote: »

Honestly cant believe how big a price Vulcanite is, 20/1 and was only beaten 7L by Montbazon who is 7/1.

prospect wells (16/1) has already beaten Montbazon once and would have probably done so a second time had he not fallen two out.

hucklebuck

Was disappointed that Russell did not ride Midnight but that went away when Townend was confirmed

Colonel Sanders

Not quite sure how Mountbazon is less than half the price of Colour Squadron myself. CS has already beaten him & I think he would have beaten him again at Newbury last time

I posted that JP had bought CS, read it in Mark Howard's update. Runs in his "usual" colours so either not true or owners get one last shout out of him

UrbanSea

Race card has him down as JP owned

RichieLawlor

UrbanSea wrote: »

Sorry I hadn't realised. I'm not sure who'd get it, I don't recall Ruby being on a Gigginstown horse before, but think he was the other week

Ruby won a Grade 1 winner for Gigginstown this season

UrbanSea

What one was that richie

newuser89

Paddy power are goin to put up there so called killer special for the first race tomoro
In the next few mins

Colonel Sanders

UrbanSea wrote: »

Race card has him down as JP owned

Apologises, RP app had him in the White colours with green "X"

UrbanSea

Irishracing have all of the colours wrong, but have him down as owner anyway

RichieLawlor

UrbanSea wrote: »

What one was that richie

Bog Warrior

UrbanSea

Right you are Richard

Mimikyu

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