Lay of the festival at the current prices!

kiers47

Just interested to hear peoples views on what prices they would be willing to take on at current prices?

Minsk for me i think there is no way he has justified a 6/1 tag for the triumph. It just baffles the mind. Now he may well go and hack up tomorrow and what price would he be then surely he couldn't shorten to much. I realize the triumph does lack that stand out superstar and people might be pricing up the race on the pure hype of 1 horse when there are a lot of unexposed horses in the field.
I couldn't back him anyway i wouldn't back him with free money at 6/1 he is a lay for me. Anyway interesting to know what people think.

Denners.ie

It would be a little foolish to back a horse at that price who hasn't jumped a hurdle but at the same time it would be more foolish to lay him. If you don't like the price just stay clear. He could turn out to be anything, no point laying the unknown.

Rhinestone Cowboy

Isnt there something about just laying everything that is below 2/1.

kiers47

Denners.ie wrote: »

It would be a little foolish to back a horse at that price who hasn't jumped a hurdle but at the same time it would be more foolish to lay him. If you don't like the price just stay clear. He could turn out to be anything, no point laying the unknown.

I have layed him already at 6.4 on betfair. Quite happy with where i stand with it unless he wins by half the track today.

Colonel Sanders

Agree about Minsk. I respect Dessie Hughes & the horse was high class on the flat but how he is so short is beyond me. He might win the triumph but anyone backing a horse with his profile ante post at 6/1 will lose in the long run

supernova84

Minsk may be short now but to be fair he was a nice double figure price after he won the Cesarewitch and was well advised by Dessie and even Richard Hughes that the Triumph would be his target. Yes the value may be gone now but I doubt all those who are on at bigger prices will be too worried.

supernova84

kiers47 wrote: »

I have layed him already at 6.4 on betfair. Quite happy with where i stand with it unless he wins by half the track today.

Perhaps who should have waited, he'll be a couple of points shorter by 2.00 today!

HigginsJ

Kauto Star would be an obvious lay as well I imagine if your a bookie

supernova84

As for my lay of the festival, it has to be Long Run at 9/4.

kiers47

supernova84 wrote: »

Perhaps who should have waited, he'll be a couple of points shorter by 2.00 today!

I layed him when todays race looked much stronger when Darroun and Ut De Sivola were still in. Oh well he still might not win today. He surely needs to to have any hope at cheltenham.

Ya i think im willing to take on Kauto and Long Run to. Not sure id lay either though and would prefer to back something at double figure odds.

I have also laid Boston Bob in the Albert B at in or around 7. Just on the pure basis that i presume he is going the Neptune route. Also if i can manage to lay sprinter sacre at odds on i would be willing to get stuck in, he looks a class act but i would have a fair few running for me.

supernova84

kiers47 wrote: »

I have layed him already at 6.4 on betfair. Quite happy with where i stand with it unless he wins by half the track today.

Nice lay now. I'd back him back though, still worth a shot!

Colonel Sanders

I backed BB Lodge today at 10/1 each way as I thought he was 100% certain to be in the 3. I'm on the iPhone now but will post a screen shot if required next time I'm on the laptop!

Thought Minsk would win but that 8/15 this morning was a ridiculous price, he did start bigger though.

I keep thinking there'll be a shock in the Gold Cup but not sure what will shock us

RichieLawlor

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

I backed BB Lodge today at 10/1 each way as I thought he was 100% certain to be in the 3. I'm on the iPhone now but will post a screen shot if required next time I'm on the laptop!

Thought Minsk would win but that 8/15 this morning was a ridiculous price, he did start bigger though.

I keep thinking there'll be a shock in the Gold Cup but not sure what will shock us

Rumours out of Nicolashayne (someone i know who used work for Pipe in the 90s) say Grand Crus is Gold Cup bound

Colonel Sanders

His price was still around 14 on Betfair even after he missed Newbury & looked RSA bound. I'd not take an ante post price about him tbh, owner seems keen & Pipe's father was never afraid to have a go either

HigginsJ

Didnt Pipe do that a few years back with another novice chaser who came from world hurdle ranks and sent him to Gold Cup. Cant remember the name. Think it was a grey horse.

finbarrk

HigginsJ wrote: »

Didnt Pipe do that a few years back with another novice chaser who came from world hurdle ranks and sent him to Gold Cup. Cant remember the name. Think it was a grey horse.

Was it Gloria Victus?

HigginsJ

no dont think so

Hulk Hands

HigginsJ wrote: »

Didnt Pipe do that a few years back with another novice chaser who came from world hurdle ranks and sent him to Gold Cup. Cant remember the name. Think it was a grey horse.

Iris gift

HigginsJ

I was thinking of Iris's Gift, knew it was AP, it was jonjo not pipe sorry.

Very similar profile to Grand Crus and the Gold Cup didnt go too well. In this case i really do think Grand Crus should stick to the novice route. A definate lay if he went for the Gold Cup.

Hulk Hands

Denners.ie wrote: »

If you don't like the price just stay clear. He could turn out to be anything, no point laying the unknown.

So just lay nothing so? Did you ever wonder how bookmakers make millions of profit each year?

I don't understand why the majority of people refuse to lay. The modern way to gamble is very simple. If you think something is too big in price, back. If something is too short, lay.

I currently don't have the funds to be laying at bigger prices regularly, but once I do I can definitely see myself becoming more of a layer than a backer.

Hulk Hands

HigginsJ wrote: »

I was thinking of Iris's Gift, knew it was AP, it was jonjo not pipe sorry.

Very similar profile to Grand Crus and the Gold Cup didnt go too well. In this case i really do think Grand Crus should stick to the novice route. A definate lay if he went for the Gold Cup.

Ah but GC has proven himself a hell of a lot more in novice chases than iris's gift did. The latter was also off the track injured for a year prior I think

Denners.ie

Hulk Hands wrote: »

So just lay nothing so? Did you ever wonder how bookmakers make millions of profit each year?

I don't understand why the majority of people refuse to lay. The modern way to gamble is very simple. If you think something is too big in price, back. If something is too short, lay.

I currently don't have the funds to be laying at bigger prices regularly, but once I do I can definitely see myself becoming more of a layer than a backer.

Did you even read my post? I said I wouldn't lay a horse that hasn't run over hurdles yet because the horse could turn out to be anything.

I never mentioned that people shouldn't lay horses in general.

HigginsJ

Yea just checking my facts now. Well off base

Still i'll stick to my point and say Grand Crus is a lay if he goes to Gold Cup

hucklebuck

Good old Bet 365, just backed him in RSA and Gold Cup.

Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

His price was still around 14 on Betfair even after he missed Newbury & looked RSA bound. I'd not take an ante post price about him tbh, owner seems keen & Pipe's father was never afraid to have a go either

150 quid waiting at 14 on Betfair

Hulk Hands

Denners.ie wrote: »

Did you even read my post? I said I wouldn't lay a horse that hasn't run over hurdles yet because the horse could turn out to be anything.

I never mentioned that people shouldn't lay horses in general.

What about if they were evens in a hot race with a few past winners in there?

The point is that if you think they are too short in price you should lay. Of course they could turn out to be anything, but that's a risk that you have to take.

Aftertiming maybe but Minsk was too short prior to todays race. You said "It would be a little foolish to back a horse at that price who hasn't jumped a hurdle but at the same time it would be more foolish to lay him". Why would it be foolish to lay him at a price that was easily too short? That's why the Triumph hurdle is one of the bookies biggest earners ante-post. Because they aren't afraid to lay hype horses who have proven nothing.

Denners.ie

Hulk Hands wrote: »

What about if they were evens in a hot race with a few past winners in there?

The point is that if you think they are too short in price you should lay. Of course they could turn out to be anything, but that's a risk that you have to take.

I said I would never lay a horse that has never jumped a hurdle because they could be anything, a superstar or a donkey. That includes " if they were evens in a hot race with a few past winners in there?"

If you think they are too short in price you don't have to take a risk of laying. You are working off the idea that we all should be professional gamblers, who simply lay based on prices.

I don't have the bankroll of the above people so I would base my lays on ability and price rather than solely just on the price. As I wouldn't be able to judge the ability of a horse who has never jumped a hurdle that is why I certainly wouldn't lay him. A professional gambler might, I wouldn't.

Hulk Hands

Denners.ie wrote: »

I said I would never lay a horse that has never jumped a hurdle because they could be anything, a superstar or a donkey. That includes " if they were evens in a hot race with a few past winners in there?"

If you think they are too short in price you don't have to take a risk of laying. You are working off the idea that we all should be professional gamblers, who simply lay based on prices.

I don't have the bankroll of the above people so I would base my lays on ability and price rather than solely just on the price. As I wouldn't be able to judge the ability of a horse who has never jumped a hurdle that is why I certainly wouldn't lay him. A professional gambler might, I wouldn't.

Well yeah from a bankroll perspective I agree, I'm not lucky enough to be in that position either. I was only taking you up on you saying it would be "foolish to lay" though. I think it's a fairly good strategy to lay unproven horses such as Minsk was. You may get burnt every so often but in the long run it'll work out well.

Colonel Sanders

Fair enough there's still doubt over the participation of Grand Crus but how is Bobs Worth 6.2 to lay for the RSA?

Hasn't looked a natural over fences & although the RSA is in danger of cutting up his form isn't great at all (he was getting 7lbs from Cue Card at Newbury)

I was in Cheltenham when he won pillar day 2011 but didn't see him in the parade ring to deny/confirm but people on Betfair have been saying since he lacks the scope to be a top class chaser

the groutch

Sprinter Sacre for me
the Arkle is a favorites' graveyard, they go such a suicidal pace that any jumping errors are severely punished, and his previous attempt at tackling the hill at Cheltenham doesnt exact inspire confidence

Huntley

the groutch wrote: »

Sprinter Sacre for me
the Arkle is a favorites' graveyard, they go such a suicidal pace that any jumping errors are severely punished, and his previous attempt at tackling the hill at Cheltenham doesnt exact inspire confidence

If you are going to lay Sprinter Sacre be prepared to lose your money.

kiers47

the groutch wrote: »

Sprinter Sacre for me
the Arkle is a favorites' graveyard, they go such a suicidal pace that any jumping errors are severely punished, and his previous attempt at tackling the hill at Cheltenham doesnt exact inspire confidence

If he goes below evens on the day i will also be taking him on i think.

Huntley

I still don't understand the obsession with people wanting to lay Sprinter Sacre. I was under the impression that there is only so much of the glaringly obvious that one can disregard before finally realising it, but it seems not.

Kiers I think you have already secured the best lay of the festival. The horses price drifted by over 100% within 24 hours and within 48 he was pulled from the race. I don't think somebody could envisage a better lay.

Hulk Hands

Huntley wrote: »

I still don't understand the obsession with people wanting to lay Sprinter Sacre. I was under the impression that there is only so much of the glaringly obvious that one can disregard before finally realising it, but it seems not.

Don't get me wrong, i'm a Sprinter Sacre backer, but people said similiar stuff about Dunguib, Time For Rupert and Franchoek in recent years alone.

There are people who have made a very tidy profit laying novice favourites at Cheltenham in recent years and I think there will be plenty of layers this year. Suits though, leave more odds against for us to lap up!

kiers47

Huntley wrote: »

I still don't understand the obsession with people wanting to lay Sprinter Sacre. I was under the impression that there is only so much of the glaringly obvious that one can disregard before finally realising it, but it seems not.

Kiers I think you have already secured the best lay of the festival. The horses price drifted by over 100% within 24 hours and within 48 he was pulled from the race. I don't think somebody could envisage a better lay.

I was just pointing out that at odds on i would also be a layer of the horse. Dont get me wrong i am a big fan of him. But my opinion is that if he were odds on i would want to take him on. That being said i dont think he will go odds on(on the exchanges anyway) So i doubt i will be laying him.

Huntley

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Don't get me wrong, i'm a Sprinter Sacre backer, but people said similiar stuff about Dunguib, Time For Rupert and Franchoek in recent years alone.

Sprinter Sacre has eclipsed all of those horses so far. He has already posted an OR 169 on the bridle, out of novice company, on his third chase start. (FWIW Dunguib and TFR were the best horses in their races, one was given an extra half a track to run and the other was a sick horse. People who layed them got lucky in the sense that horses weren't able to run to the best of their ability.)

There will be plenty of layers this year but they won't be making money off Sprinter Sacre. He is no hype horse at this stage.

Hulk Hands

Huntley wrote: »

Sprinter Sacre has eclipsed all of those horses so far. He has already posted an OR 169 on the bridle, out of novice company, on his third chase start. (FWIW Dunguib and TFR were the best horses in their races, one was given an extra half a track to run and the other was a sick horse. People who layed them got lucky in the sense that horses weren't able to run to the best of their ability.)

There will be plenty of layers this year but they won't be making money off Sprinter Sacre. He is no hype horse at this stage.

I agree re: Dunguib, but you were backing with full knowledge who the jockey was so I suppose on that occasion the layers were right. Hard to know with TFR. Hasnt achieved much since. Terrible race either way. I'd say Quel Esprit might be the best from that one though.

I wouldnt say SS had eclipsed Dunguib prior, seeing as Dunguib had that all important course form in the book. There'll be plenty of layers based on the fact that he didnt get home last year. But yeah like you im very confident they won't be making money

Panrich

Kauto Star for me. I was cheering him on on his last two wins but it was obvious that although his pace had long Run at it from a long way out, he was coming to the end of his tether at Kempton. He cannot outstay Long Run up the hill at Cheltenham and will not be placed if he employs the same tactics in my opinion.

hucklebuck

kiers47 wrote: »

I have layed him already at 6.4 on betfair. Quite happy with where i stand with it unless he wins by half the track today.

Great work man, fair play.

I got stuck into him NRNB just before the off knowing I would get the bigger price if it went wrong, was relieved to see him withdrawn and the money back in my account.:cool:

hucklebuck

Huntley wrote: »

If you are going to lay Sprinter Sacre be prepared to lose your money.

Dunno if you saw Boyle Sports offer, they will refund up to €200 if your horse finishes second in the first four races on Tuesday.

Could be a storming start:

€200 on Simonsig
€200 on Peddlers/ Sprinter
€200 on Hurricane Fly
€50 on Seabass

the groutch

didnt know Boyles took bets of €200 :rolleyes:

ft9

hucklebuck wrote: »

Dunno if you saw Boyle Sports offer, they will refund up to €200 if your horse finishes second in the first four races on Tuesday.

Could be a storming start:

€200 on Simonsig
€200 on Peddlers/ Sprinter
€200 on Hurricane Fly
€50 on Seabass

That's fantastic.

Another €200 on Hurricane and Sprinter Sacre it is!!

hucklebuck

the groutch wrote: »

didnt know Boyles took bets of €200 :rolleyes:

Didn't know English was your second/ third language :rolleyes:

Juwwi

Thats some offer alright from Boyles.

I wonder will PP do their money back if a certain horse wins this year I've a feeling it will be Sprinter Sacre this year.

ft9

PP was asking on twitter yesterday what money back special customers want

Juwwi

ft9 wrote: »

PP was asking on twitter yesterday what money back special customers want

What were the general answers?

He did that for the Champion League final last year and had a poll on the PP site for people to vote on.

ft9

Not sure, here's what he tweeted...


You guys want Hurricane Fly, Long Run, Big Buck's and Sprinter Sacre in the running for our Cheltenham MBS #foodforthought

Juwwi

ft9 wrote: »

Not sure, here's what he tweeted...


You guys want Hurricane Fly, Long Run, Big Buck's and Sprinter Sacre in the running for our Cheltenham MBS #foodforthought

It would have to be one of the two on the first day I'd say as they will
want people opening new accounts / funding old accounts early in the week to keep them betting for the week.

If its say HF you could back the whole field around PP shops
and then put the potential winnings on HF in Boyles.

(it cost me €700 when I did it with Dunguib to gaurantee a €1000 win
if any of the field had of won bar Dunguib so IF the prices were the same you'd then put the €300 on HF in Boyles).

sq_forever

hucklebuck wrote: »

Dunno if you saw Boyle Sports offer, they will refund up to €200 if your horse finishes second in the first four races on Tuesday.

Could be a storming start:

€200 on Simonsig
€200 on Peddlers/ Sprinter
€200 on Hurricane Fly
€50 on Seabass

Be careful with boyles' offers at Cheltenham. I got stung last year. They had loads of posters up in their shops offering your money back if your horse came second to hurrican fly. The offer was only for online bets, so read the small print! Try to avoid them since.

Huntley

hucklebuck wrote: »

Dunno if you saw Boyle Sports offer, they will refund up to €200 if your horse finishes second in the first four races on Tuesday.

Could be a storming start:

€200 on Simonsig

Just stick this €200 on an SS/HF double instead. Simonsig is too slow to win a supreme.

That is a very decent offer but they won't take enough of my money on SS, I will back him without fail until he hits odds on.

the groutch

hucklebuck wrote: »

Didn't know English was your second/ third language :rolleyes:

didnt know the grammar Nazis had infiltrated the Horse Racing forum