Arkle Chase 13-03-2012

ft9

So, who's gonna win the Arkle?

Sprinter Sacre easily for me.

premierstone

Peddlers Cross

It was shaping up to be one of the best and most competitve Arkles in recent memory until Sprinter Sacre announced he's greatness, if he stands up I think he wins cosily. There is also slight concern over how he weakened up the hill in last year's Supreme Novice, but he has had a wind op since and is a much stronger horse aswell, i dont think/hope stamina will be an issue.

HigginsJ

Menorah

Sprinter Sacre looks a class apart but that being said i'll be taking a chance with AL Ferof. Stayed so well last year (backed him) so will be backing him again.

mccarte2

I'm sitting on a 7/1 Peddlers bet since November so can't abandon him now! He has to be better than his Kempton run but whether he's good enough to beat SS is another thing. Seeing SS struggle up the hill last year gives me plenty of hope.

sonnky

Menorah

Al Ferof well under rated I think. Won here last year in the Supreme and was 2nd in the Bumper the previous year. Has top class form over fences and around here. It is though far more competitive than last years race, with way more quality in it this year!

newuser89

Al Ferof

Gwan the Peddlers

Colonel Sanders

Al Ferof

Hoping Sprinter Sacre starts a silly price to unload on Peddlers each way

Slattsy

Peddlers Cross

What joker picked Menorah ??? Eh ???

hucklebuck

Al Ferof

... I know but I am going to say it again.:D

Peddlers did not want to go right handed and nearly lost two legs at the first, this certainly isn't the foregone conclusion everyone is making it out to be, Peddlers will find tons for pressure when push comes to shove.

dave3004

Sprinter Sacre was weak at Cheltenham last year……….Travelled really well and found zilch.

Seems to have filled out a bit since then though.

Anyway, the way Al Ferof powered up the hill was visibly stunning last year although he did get quite far back. I don’t think he has a high cruising speed like SS or PC.

Peddlers Cross is being majorly overlooked here on 1 run. This is a horse who McCain is OBSESSED with. Couple of years ago they didn’t believe he'd be beaten over any distance.

I think PC has EVERYTHING as a horse. Can jump hurdles and fences fluently, travels really well, stays really well and has a turn of foot.

Only HF can beat it over hurdles over 2m, I reckon nothing except BB can beat it over hurdles over 3m.

I think this horse will definitely place and you are getting and e/w bet to nothing with the odds but would like to see a tilt at the GC next year.

Dunno why they continue over the sharp 2m trip with him when he stays much further.

I reckon the Arkle finished like this:

1st. Peddlers Cross
2nd. Al Ferof
3rd. Sprinter Sacre

ste2010

Peddlers Cross

I would have put cue card in place of menorah on the chart.
But I fancy sprinter sacre will throw into some accumulators and prob back peddlers cross small amounts for cover

RichieLawlor

I have a theory that last years Champion Hurdle may have bottomed Peddlers Cross. He did everything so easy until then, and he had a very hard race that day after taking it up a good bit out and keeping going all the way to the line. (Similar to Celestial Halo, he wasn't right for a year after his CH 2nd, He led all the way with Osana and kept going all the way at a suicidal pace, Osana wasn't sighted at the finish)

He was tailed off next time up in the Aintree Hurdle.

Since then he has beaten trees in two silly novice chases and been hammered the first time he met decent opposition.

Thoughts?

newuser89

Al Ferof

It obviously affected him at aintree but I think he's still the same this year I don't think he wants a lot of races a season maybe just the 3 or 4 with plenty of time between races

hucklebuck

Al Ferof

I suppose its possible Richie but given his three races this year its very hard to assess.

Against SS he made a serious mistake at the first and after that its an uphill battle, look at Imperial Commander in the King George and how he ran no race after that, he did well to finish where he did but he was never on an even keel, I think the same applies here.

Also that race was Peddlers first outing right handed unless I missed something and he spent the race looking left and jumping slightly left.

I hope I am right though and it isnt the procession a lot of people think its going to be.

RichieLawlor

I think Bog Warrior is very special. If he was a Mullins horse he would be close to favourite. That Drinmore run was awesome

Morgans

Bog Warrior is good. Drinmore over 2m4f and needs winter ground. Sprinter Sacre has the makings of being a great. I think he is a certainty, and I was a big Peddlers Cross fan, but I'd have Sprinter Sacre not a million miles of favouritism in the Queen Mother. He is priced well for those who want to take an opinion against him, but I think its one of those occasions where you have to conscioulsy avoid the glaringly obvious to come up wtih an alternative.

Slattsy

Peddlers Cross

RichieLawlor wrote: »

I think Bog Warrior is very special. If he was a Mullins horse he would be close to favourite. That Drinmore run was awesome

Needs soft ground and further than 2 against the big boys.

RichieLawlor

Morgans wrote: »

Bog Warrior is good. Drinmore over 2m4f and needs winter ground. Sprinter Sacre has the makings of being a great. I think he is a certainty, and I was a big Peddlers Cross fan, but I'd have Sprinter Sacre not a million miles of favouritism in the Queen Mother. He is priced well for those who want to take an opinion against him, but I think its one of those occasions where you have to conscioulsy avoid the glaringly obvious to come up wtih an alternative.

I agree. I'm defo on the Sprinter Sacre bandwagon and I hope he wins. I'm
Thinking more of terms of w/o or place betting tbh, I don't want to empty the clip on a 5/4 novice chaser in the 2nd race of the week.

Saying that, I do hope he hacks up. We need another superstar horse now with Kauto on his way out and Long Run not as good as I thought originally

mdwexford

There is no evidence that PC is any good over fences so far, totally backing him on hurdles form.

I thought Al Ferof looked held before the Sup Nov last year but he produced it on the day so who knows how good he'll be come Arkle time. The experience of the last day should help him.

SS could just have another schooling session though and jump them into the ground.

Probably the race im most looking forward to at the moment.

Morgans

Sprinter Sacre ran like the best horse in the race last year. The only fear I have is that he is so brave at his fences, that one of the downhill ones might catch him out. I'm willing to think he is special at this stage, and if there is egg on my face after - so be it. There have been less viable bandwagons in the past.

I'd like to see some Nicholls horses run well before Cheltenham. And Al Ferof looks like following the Noland path.

mccarte2

dave3004 wrote: »

Sprinter Sacre was weak at Cheltenham last year……….Travelled really well and found zilch.

Seems to have filled out a bit since then though.

Anyway, the way Al Ferof powered up the hill was visibly stunning last year although he did get quite far back. I don’t think he has a high cruising speed like SS or PC.

While it was good, I think a lot of it was as a result of the other horses around him not getting home.

premierstone

Peddlers Cross

As I sid Im firmly aboard the Sprinter Sacre bandwagon aswell, just in relation to a few who have raised concerns over him getting up the hill, McCoy got off the horse last year and immediately told them to give the horse a wind op and that if he hadnt have had the problem would have won, he was quite adamant to connections after that Sprinter Sacre was the best horse in the race.

sweeno69

Menorah

Al Ferof was too good for SS in the Supreme last year...

He has run and jumped well this year - no reason why he cant beat SS again... Peddlers is the main danger i think

mdwexford

sweeno69 wrote: »

Al Ferof was too good for SS in the Supreme last year...

He has run and jumped well this year - no reason why he cant beat SS again... Peddlers is the main danger i think

Have you seen them this year?

If you have how can you think that?

Why would you think PC is the main danger?

Rating them on last years hurdles form much.

sweeno69

Menorah

SS was passed going up the hill by Al Ferof and Spirit Son last year.... Hasnt run at Cheltenham since... What makes you so sure he'll be able for the hill this time around? He's clearly a far better chaser, but 5/4 is too short for me.

Peddlers won his 2 races at Bangor handy enough and wasnt right at Kempton. You can put a line through that...

Al Ferof and Peddlers both finished strongly at Chelt last year, SS didnt. That's my reasoning anyway

mdwexford

sweeno69 wrote: »

SS was passed going up the hill by Al Ferof and Spirit Son last year.... Hasnt run at Cheltenham since... What makes you so sure he'll be able for the hill this time around? He's clearly a far better chaser, but 5/4 is too short for me.

Peddlers won his 2 races at Bangor handy enough and wasnt right at Kempton. You can put a line through that...

Al Ferof and Peddlers both finished strongly at Chelt last year, SS didnt. That's my reasoning anyway

So that means he wasnt able for the hill?
Hes a year older wiser and stronger for a start and chasing looks to have been the making of him.

The races at Bangor were awful, proved nothing bar hes still alive.

sweeno69

Menorah

mdwexford wrote: »

Hes a year older wiser and stronger for a start and chasing looks to have been the making of him.

Same with Al Ferof!

Look, SS might run away with it... Just wouldnt write off Peddlers because of a run at Kempton where he wasnt right... As you say, the 2 runs at Bangor were meaningless, so all we really have to go on is his hurdles form last year... 2nd to Hurricane Fly isnt a bad piece of form!

premierstone

Peddlers Cross

sweeno69 wrote: »

SS was passed going up the hill by Al Ferof and Spirit Son last year.... Hasnt run at Cheltenham since... What makes you so sure he'll be able for the hill this time around? He's clearly a far better chaser, but 5/4 is too short for me.

Peddlers won his 2 races at Bangor handy enough and wasnt right at Kempton. You can put a line through that...

Al Ferof and Peddlers both finished strongly at Chelt last year, SS didnt. That's my reasoning anyway

As I have said McCoy has said he took a blow at the bottom of the hill and had serious breathing problems that has all been remedied, from his runs this year he might not even need to come up the hill, as nothing will get him off the bridle.

Why would someone think last years form over hurdles is more relevant than this years form over fences?? Seems too many people try too hard to pick holes in Favs, if it walks like a duck, talks like a duck etc etc.

mdwexford

Yeah but AF doesnt have hill issues apparently.

Not sure I buy the PC not being right thing, guess we shall see. Think people are looking for excuses when he was so easily brushed aside.

Yeah novice chasing is always somewhat of a guessing game.

newuser89

Al Ferof

Sprinter sacre will not win on the bridle
That is for definite ,anyone that says he will isn't giving credit to any of the other horse.

premierstone

Peddlers Cross

newuser89 wrote: »

Sprinter sacre will not win on the bridle
That is for definite ,anyone that says he will isn't giving credit to any of the other horse.

Its a definite?? Offering a price on this??

ryant1981

Peddlers all the way for me, has proven himself in Cheltenham & rated better over hurdles

newuser89

Al Ferof

Why do that when I will be loading it on Peddlers
He hasn't beaten anything of great quality yet and Peddlers is of similar quality
And alferof for that matter
Don't come back and say he beat Peddlers cause that run should be ignored
Peddlers and SS will jump the last together and SS will find silch

premierstone

Peddlers Cross

newuser89 wrote: »

Why do that when I will be loading it on Peddlers

Because usually when someone says it a ''definite'' ie absolutely 100% they would be willing to put their money down to back it up Im basically oferring you free money here?

newuser89

Al Ferof

I'm going that bit further and putting it on the winner.
What odds you goin offer me for SS to win on the bridle in the arkle
I'm sure plenty more would like a piece of it

hucklebuck

Al Ferof

Give him 7/2 Premier, otherwise its not worth his while.

How in the name of god is bog warrior 25/1, the same as blackstairmountain? Sure he needs to get his toe in but would back him at that price, hardly inconceivable he would place.

premierstone

Peddlers Cross

newuser89 wrote: »

I'm going that bit further and putting it on the winner.
What odds you goin offer me for SS to win on the bridle in the arkle
I'm sure plenty more would like a piece of it

Im the one who wants to back him winning on the bridle why would I be offering odds? When you said it was a definte he wouldnt I assumed you would give at least a three figure price

premierstone

Peddlers Cross

hucklebuck wrote: »

Give him 7/2 Premier, otherwise its not worth his while.

How in the name of god is bog warrior 25/1, the same as blackstairmountain? Sure he needs to get his toe in but would back him at that price, hardly inconceivable he would place.

Bog warrior is ground dependent and I dont think he has been confirmed as a runner has he??

Hulk Hands

Have been firmly in the SS camp since last years supreme. Have a bit on antepost but not half as much as I was planning. Forgot to back him prior to him beating PC at xmas due to a stephens day hangover and thought i'd leave it until the day after that.

There's a lot of shorties this year, and obviously SS is the only one not to hav been there and done it. Still, sometimes the answer can be just staring you in the face. I can see him winning it like Azertyioup did all those years back

ste2010

Peddlers Cross

premierstone wrote: »

hucklebuck wrote: »

Give him 7/2 Premier, otherwise its not worth his while.

How in the name of god is bog warrior 25/1, the same as blackstairmountain? Sure he needs to get his toe in but would back him at that price, hardly inconceivable he would place.

Bog warrior is ground dependent and I dont think he has been confirmed as a runner has he??

I watched an interview with Davy russell before last installment was declared as not going and he ddnt actually say it but when he was asked he said he "could" be staying in Ireland basically. If he was 6-1 I'd still back him. NRNB on bet365 will prob get a piece tomorrow Just in case

mccarte2

hucklebuck wrote: »

Give him 7/2 Premier, otherwise its not worth his while.

How in the name of god is bog warrior 25/1, the same as blackstairmountain? Sure he needs to get his toe in but would back him at that price, hardly inconceivable he would place.

Tony Martin said he has no problem skipping Cheltenham. Didn't sound all that confident at all tbh.

hucklebuck

Al Ferof

premierstone wrote: »

Bog warrior is ground dependent and I dont think he has been confirmed as a runner has he??

What did you think I meant by "he needs to get his toe in"? You must be in to all sorts of kinky animal sheet!!!:D

Rhinestone Cowboy

Peddlers Cross

How many do you reckon will actually run in this ?

newuser89

Al Ferof

Great offer from paddy power in the arkle
If your horse finishes 2nd to sprinter sacre in the arkle they will give your money back
Most you can be refunded is 100
100 on Peddlers for me so

newuser89

Al Ferof

I got it a little wrong
If sprinter sacre wins all win bets will be refunded
Up to 100

ste2010

Peddlers Cross

newuser89 wrote: »

I got it a little wrong
If sprinter sacre wins all win bets will be refunded
Up to 100

Any idea when PP will be going NRNB?

newuser89

Al Ferof

I've no idea

Mick990

Peddlars Cross has drifted out to 7s on Betfair . I know that's a bad sign and bad news is probably coming but I couldn't resist having a little Nibble

hucklebuck

Al Ferof

ste2010 wrote: »

Any idea when PP will be going NRNB?

Paddy said Saturday morning at the preview night.

****ing **** must have known about the Peddlers doubts, special announced the day before Mc Cain comes out with the Jewson. Oddly enough no questions at the preview last night, I had that one ready :mad:

ste2010

Peddlers Cross

hucklebuck wrote: »

ste2010 wrote: »

Any idea when PP will be going NRNB?

Paddy said Saturday morning at the preview night.

****ing **** must have known about the Peddlers doubts, special announced the day before Mc Cain comes out with the Jewson. Oddly enough no questions at the preview last night, I had that one ready :mad:

Did ye back the 200euro on him????????

Huntley

Peddlers Cross

If Peddlers is re-routed to the Jewson I think it is quite plausible that the horse wasn't totally wrong at Kempton like many on here vehemently stood by.