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The Great Aftertiming Footy thread!

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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,351 ✭✭✭magherakid


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    Nice start to the new year


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,351 ✭✭✭magherakid


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,463 ✭✭✭Ronan Raver77


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,463 ✭✭✭Ronan Raver77


    In play bet. Just before half time both sides losing 1-0.

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 246 ✭✭Urindanger


    Probably not in line with the rules of the thread, but needs to be shared.

    Probably the sickest individual result I have ever seen:
    DSaCTEaXcAAozsZ.jpg

    Takes serious balls and a genius brain to not green up earlier. Granted he wins 11k regardless.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,832 ✭✭✭✭Fitz*


    Can you explain what he was doing there please? :o

    I don't use b365 / don't lay bets.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 246 ✭✭Urindanger


    FitzShane wrote: »
    Can you explain what he was doing there please? :o

    I don't use b365 / don't lay bets.

    Yeah sure thing. This will be long, hope it helps.

    The bet365 screen isn't too important, likely he just used that it as it's a good way of tracking a game in play, usually one of the fastest livescore boards out of all the bookmaker sites, and easy to read and follow stats too.

    Main part is the screen to the right, the ladder. That's a piece of software that's connected to the betfair exchange. The exchange is where you can back or lay odds on different markets, and with odds movement, secure a profit regardless of what happens in the game.

    The software allows you to place bets faster, see volumes of money easier and faster than the traditional site as well as other things.

    The red column down the middle is the list of odds in decimal format, from 1.01 to 1000. In a bookies you can only take the price offered to you, on the Exchange you can offer prices, and as long as someone accepts the bet, the bet is on. In a bookies, the odds on Man City winning the league are like 1/50 or 1.02 in decimal odds. That's the odds you can back at on Paddy, 365, William Hill etc. On the exchange I see someone has by mistake offered to back at 1.10 or 1/10 (i.e he has layed it) so I decide to accept it and back it, and the bet is matched. At the same time, let's say Man City are actually 1.1 or 1/10 to win. Someone has offered 1.05, a far worse price. As long as someone is silly enough to back it, the bet is matched. As you can see if you have an idea where the odds should be, there is lots of potential for serious serious profit.

    As you can see from the top of the far right screen he's trading the O/U 0.5 goals market. The odds for it to be over 0.5 goals pre game is usually ridiculously short, something between 1/20 and 1/40 depending on the teams. Considering Man City are prominent scorers, odds would be increasingly short.

    Let's say over 0.5 is at odds of 1.04, under 0.5 will be something like 25.0. I'd imagine what he did was lay Over 0.5 lots of times as the odds move, and back at higher odds as the game develops securing profit. Obviously the longer the game goes with no goals the higher the odds go.

    If you back at 1.04, you're risking a lot for little return, common sense...100 euro gets you only 4 euro profit. However laying at 1.04, you're risking only 4 euro to win 100, the opposite, basically playing the bookie...your payout is 4 if you lose, you win 100 from the 'punter' if he loses. It's much more attractive to lay at very short prices than back due to basic risk/reward.

    Now back to the screenshot. Look at the green figures:

    163,038.45
    170,637.87
    11,050.18

    11,050.18 is what he wins if O 0.5 happens, i.e a goal is scored. So in effect he's guaranteed 11k simply because he was laying and backing (trading) at different prices, securing small profits along the way.

    170,637.87 is what he wins is U 0.5 happens (which it did). The reason why it's so much higher is due to what was said above, far more risk than reward backing a short odd.

    163,038.45 is the hedged figure available the cash out amount if you like. He could hedge for that, and even if a goal was scored or not he's guaranteed that hedged figure. That's the essence of trading, buying and selling bets based on odds movement, then hedging up and securing the same profit across all outcomes.

    I have no idea why he didn't hedge/cash out earlier, as I'm sure everyone would cash out for 100k no matter what happens, rather than hoping to win 170k, or only 11k (I say only, but in this context, yeah only!). His name is Paulo Rebelo, a well known trader and bettor who's risked, won and lost more than we could imagine, but he's very analytical and obviously knows what he's doing and has his reasons for letting the bet run.

    Apologies for rambling, hope it helps you understand a little more.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 246 ✭✭Urindanger


    Probably easier to show an example.

    Take the game tonight, L'Pool vs Eveton.

    You can back O 0.5 at 1.06, lay at 1.07

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    We decide to lay for 1000 euro. As we see we're risking only 70, standing to win 1000. If someone backed at 1.07 it'd be the opposite, risk 1000, stand to win 70.



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    The game starts and after ten/fifteen minutes (maybe more, maybe less, depends on the teams, the game and how lively it is), the odds will move. Above I've guessed that they'll be at 1.14. If we use the exact same stake, 1000 euro we can now back at that price, and now we lose nothing if a goal is not scored, win 70 if a goal is scored. We've a free bet on 70 euro in essence. However with trading we want to secure a smaller profit but across all outcomes so we can forget about the sweat of waiting to see what happens.



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    We lay a small bit more at that price (note 1065.42 in lay stake box, i.e we layed 1000, backed 1000, and now lay another 65 quid) thus securing 65.42 profit across all outcomes.



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    We could fiddle around with the figures and thus alter profit amounts if we so please, like what Paulo did above. See now we only back for 700 instead of 1000, winning 28 no matter what, and 300 if U 0.5 happens (0-0 at full time)


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,380 ✭✭✭The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman


    Urindanger wrote: »
    Probably not in line with the rules of the thread, but needs to be shared.

    Probably the sickest individual result I have ever seen:
    DSaCTEaXcAAozsZ.jpg

    Takes serious balls and a genius brain to not green up earlier. Granted he wins 11k regardless.

    Must have had some serious money laid at the start to end up with that type of green on the unders.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 246 ✭✭Urindanger


    Must have had some serious money laid at the start to end up with that type of green on the unders.

    I can't even imagine. Must have an obscene bankroll in general. 2% commission as well seeing as it was a PL game and they've that special offer running atm. Must be nice :pac:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,380 ✭✭✭The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman


    Urindanger wrote: »
    I can't even imagine. Must have an obscene bankroll in general. 2% commission as well seeing as it was a PL game and they've that special offer running atm. Must be nice :pac:

    Must have had €15k on the line at some point in that trade. Goal in the first minute like city's next game and you're bust :o

    I wouldnt be so sure he'd be able to get 2% commission those high volume traders who make more than 250k usually pay alot more on profits.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 246 ✭✭Urindanger


    Must have had €15k on the line at some point in that trade. Goal in the first minute like city's next game and you're bust :o

    I wouldnt be so sure he'd be able to get 2% commission those high volume traders who make more than 250k usually pay alot more on profits.

    Easing that much into the market without spooking the whole show is impressive on it's own. Granted liquidity would have been sound.

    Surely some sort of premium charge is involved although I read on Twitter somewhere people like Psychoff are on low commission. They might strike a special deal with them.

    Edit:

    Went snooping on Twitter and came across the video showing the trade in more detail:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0-fPNM0TwA

    2%!!

    Look at all the pages of trades he has for the one market.

    I did the translate on one of the comments and he mentions the generated commission discount with regards to his low commission and link the T&C. He's probably pumping so much money and being so active that his commission is very low


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,380 ✭✭✭The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman


    Urindanger wrote: »
    Easing that much into the market without spooking the whole show is impressive on it's own. Granted liquidity would have been sound.

    Surely some sort of premium charge is involved although I read on Twitter somewhere people like Psychoff are on low commission. They might strike a special deal with them.

    Well if you bet enough on Betfair you accumulate the lower commission rates. I imagine he has a 1% deal with them to be pushing that type of liquidity around. Those sort of screenshots look lovely, but I'd love to see his P/L on that market over a month or two. To be fair though that sort of score will set you up for the entire season.


  • Registered Users Posts: 993 ✭✭✭ballyargus


    Thanks urindanger. Thoroughly enjoyed those posts. Have done a little trading in the past and knew that this was possible but haven't seen a scenario broken apart like this before


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,977 ✭✭✭HandsomeBob


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    €5 accumulator on 6 teams.

    At 60 mins took a partial cash out of half of what they were offering; so €200 withdrawn with half my stake back still potentially returning roughly €2k.

    Started to get nervous at 80 mins. They were offering €600 cash out. I went to do another partial cash out of half, which would have been another €300 with the stake halfed again to return around €1k at FT.

    Was prompted to confirm but just as I was confirming didn't the offer refresh and I cashed out fully by accident, providing the full and final cash out in the attached.

    All 6 results came in so I spared them a 3k+ pay out in the end. Lesson learned. Another day someone would have scored in the last 10 mins and it would have been smart.

    Not a bad return for a 5er but still sick. Don't know why it wouldn't prompt me to confirm again once the bet refreshed.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,463 ✭✭✭Ronan Raver77


    Great start to 2018 for me..few more very close bets besides these but heres my main ones from the last week.
    Arsenal V Chelsea did this at HT if you remember was 0-0 but loads of chances in the first half so went in big enough for me..

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    Celta Vigo are no slouches and Barca had put out a weaker team..Had a decent bet on Aspas and he hit the bar in the build up to the goal but this won anyway so didn't feel too bad.
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    Best of luck for the rest of the year guys i threw in 20e on the first of January and cashed out a few times already:P


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,463 ✭✭✭Ronan Raver77


    Still using the bookies money :D

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,400 ✭✭✭evosteo


    Still using the bookies money :D

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    Good man. I usually have athletico nailed on for unders


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,463 ✭✭✭Ronan Raver77


    evosteo wrote: »
    Good man. I usually have athletico nailed on for unders

    Was thinking it was heading that way alright but luckily they grabbed 3 in the second half :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,463 ✭✭✭Ronan Raver77


    First day using the new Bet Builder feature on b365 two decent wins and had something similar in the Chelsea game @33/1 which nearly won. Did one for A madrid game but ugh... 2 from 4 aint bad.

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  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,863 Mod ✭✭✭✭inforfun


    Starting to like those bet builders...

    Last night Marseille - Monaco
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    Tonight Celta - Betis

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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,627 ✭✭✭Sgt Pepper 64


    €2 euro mighty accua wins €22.51 all over 1.5
    I had a €1 BTTS to score similar one and it lost by one flipping result!
    Royston Town v Weymouth - Total Goals U/O 1.5 Over 1.5 Accumulator 2.00 0.00 Won
    Billericay v Worthing - Won
    Hendon v Leatherhead - Won
    Wingate and Finchley v Lowestoft Town Won
    Coventry v Cambridge United Won
    Luton Town v Wycombe - Won
    Swansea v Arsenal - Won
    Harlow v Merstham - Won
    Dungannon Swifts v Crusaders Won
    Berwick Rangers v Peterhead Won
    Rennes v PSG - Total Goals Won
    Formartine Utd v Cove Rangers Won
    FC Twente v Cambuur -Won
    Bohemians v Longford Won


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,463 ✭✭✭Ronan Raver77


    Villa are my team and Hogan doing well of late so extra bonus today!!:D

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  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,863 Mod ✭✭✭✭inforfun


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,463 ✭✭✭Ronan Raver77


    Taking info from the page and my own feelings..

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    Inforfun fair fooks...

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    cash out today and left 50 in account..just a good roll few quid saturday my villa bets won and sunday bets were all but dying.. kane late goal.. cashed out 150 and said fook it and jumped on Inforfuns bet. kudos...

    Inforfun made my day was questioning the cards but jumped on it before ko.. then we were all waiting for corners. Happy days lads


    cash out today

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,463 ✭✭✭Ronan Raver77


    Nice to get this after my only other bet was on the Spurs game today which was terrible.

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  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,863 Mod ✭✭✭✭inforfun


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    This was without any sweat. Latest goal in all these matches was Marseille's 3rd in the 74th minute.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,463 ✭✭✭Ronan Raver77


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  • Registered Users Posts: 993 ✭✭✭ballyargus


    Nice sixfold landed earlier. Powder for tomorrow

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 484 ✭✭ANDREWMUFC


    ballyargus wrote: »
    Nice sixfold landed earlier. Powder for tomorrow

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    Don’t lose it all on virtuals now!


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